BREXIT DAY

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Jose: Jul 24, 2007; Adrian Chiles is a broadcaster and writer

https://twitter.com/me_stafford/sta...r%3D348%23pti33

# ? Jun 9, 2017 20:09

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# ? Apr 28, 2024 05:17

PleasingFungus: Oct 10, 2012; idiot asshole bitch who should fuck off

the first page of this thread is a lot of fun now

Mainwaring posted:

Corbyn often has good policies but is fundamentally bad at the job of being leader of the opposition. He'd probably be a pretty good shadow work and pensions secretary or something idk.

Peel posted:

labour right is incompetent and opposed by the press, corbyn is more incompetent and seen as terrifying anathema by the press

the meaningful battle has for a while been to secure a left wing power base in post-corbyn labour

the tories will win the election with an increased majority though, i guess shortly before the cps reveals that actually the whole last parliament was illegitimate

Paper With Lines posted:

Well at least Corbyn will finally get his test and if he gets owned and all ya'll cry to death, maybe the Labour Elite who know what they are doing cane take back over.

# ? Jun 9, 2017 20:10

PleasingFungus: Oct 10, 2012; idiot asshole bitch who should fuck off

Jose posted:

https://twitter.com/PolComForum/sta...r%3D347%23pti12

pissing off the police, as a right-wing party, is probably one of the strongest moves you can make

# ? Jun 9, 2017 20:13

BrutalistMcDonalds: Oct 4, 2012; Lipstick Apathy

Zero Gravitas posted:

New look announced for Downing Street:

# ? Jun 9, 2017 20:27

BrutalistMcDonalds: Oct 4, 2012; Lipstick Apathy

PleasingFungus posted:

the first page of this thread is a lot of fun now

send them all to forums gulag

# ? Jun 9, 2017 20:31

Jose: Jul 24, 2007; Adrian Chiles is a broadcaster and writer

Jose posted:

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/s...D108%23lastpost

i take back all the mean things i said about nate

# ? Jun 9, 2017 20:32

Breakfast All Day: Oct 21, 2004

Jose posted:

i take back all the mean things i said about nate

predicting "the polls will be off" is entrail-reading econ/poli forecasters' "you will have an unexpected opportunity"

# ? Jun 9, 2017 20:35

Jose: Jul 24, 2007; Adrian Chiles is a broadcaster and writer

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/statu...agenumber%3D350

https://twitter.com/liamyoung/statu...r%3D930%23pti22

# ? Jun 9, 2017 21:06

PleasingFungus: Oct 10, 2012; idiot asshole bitch who should fuck off

Jose posted:

i take back all the mean things i said about nate

remember when the Official C-SPAM name for him was 'Shook Nate', because he predicted a 1/3 chance of trump winning when everyone else was giving 1/100 odds

# ? Jun 9, 2017 21:14

Vincent Van Goatse: Nov 8, 2006; Enjoy every sandwich.; Smellrose

PleasingFungus posted:

pissing off the police, as a right-wing party, is probably one of the strongest moves you can make

amazing, ain't it? it's like a racist fascist going to a southern US college campus and condemning both football AND jesus

# ? Jun 9, 2017 21:19

Jose: Jul 24, 2007; Adrian Chiles is a broadcaster and writer

labour won kensington by 20 votes lol

# ? Jun 9, 2017 21:23

Pener Kropoopkin: Jan 30, 2013

https://twitter.com/frankcottrell_b/status/873264652096077824

# ? Jun 9, 2017 21:24

PostNouveau: Sep 3, 2011; VY till I die; Grimey Drawer

What happens if no one can get the numbers to form a government?

# ? Jun 9, 2017 21:26

CottonWolf: Jul 20, 2012; Good ideas generator

Pener Kropoopkin posted:

https://twitter.com/frankcottrell_b/status/873264652096077824

Good politics that. Both NI parties benefit.

# ? Jun 9, 2017 21:26

got any sevens: Feb 9, 2013; by Cyrano4747

Pener Kropoopkin posted:

It's more like the latter reflects the former imo. Memes and forum posting doesn't make a real appreciable difference on electoral outcomes, but they do reflect a much wider appeal and sentiment. If your campaign supporters don't have any good memes then you're probably not actually appealing to anybody.

gentlemen, we must not allow a meme gap

# ? Jun 9, 2017 21:27

Vox Nihili: May 28, 2008

Crazy how many "safe" Conservative seats came close to flipping. Just 8 or so more and the tories would be out entirely, drat.

# ? Jun 9, 2017 21:27

hakimashou: Jul 15, 2002; Upset Trowel

Rastor posted:

That's the point though, the story is fully accurate while continuing to brush Corbyn and the left under the rug.

It's a story in an American newspaper... nobody here knows or cares about Jeremy Corbyn unless they do british politics as a hobby or for work. Plus its just the headlines, its probably explained in the articles.

# ? Jun 9, 2017 21:29

Jose: Jul 24, 2007; Adrian Chiles is a broadcaster and writer

# ? Jun 9, 2017 21:29

Captain_Maclaine: Sep 30, 2001; Every moment I'm alive, I pray for death!

Vincent Van Goatse posted:

amazing, ain't it? it's like a racist fascist going to a southern US college campus and condemning both football AND jesus

I remain perplexed and amazed he did that and managed to get out without being physically torn to shreds.

PostNouveau posted:

What happens if no one can get the numbers to form a government?

Another round of elections.

# ? Jun 9, 2017 21:32

SHY NUDIST GRRL: Feb 15, 2011; Communism will help more white people than anyone else. Any equal measures unfairly provide less to minority populations just because there's less of them. Democracy is truly the tyranny of the mob.

PleasingFungus posted:

remember when the Official C-SPAM name for him was 'Shook Nate', because he predicted a 1/3 chance of trump winning when everyone else was giving 1/100 odds

That's because he started at 1/1000 chance and acted like a goober the whole time

Though he did have enough of a sense of humor to post the Trump plane coming into view as his flight is delayed and his favorite team lost.

# ? Jun 9, 2017 21:37

Bip Roberts: Mar 29, 2005

SHY NUDIST GRRL posted:

That's because he started at 1/1000 chance and acted like a goober the whole time

Though he did have enough of a sense of humor to post the Trump plane coming into view as his flight is delayed and his favorite team lost.

Wut

# ? Jun 9, 2017 21:47

Nix Panicus: Feb 25, 2007

Vox Nihili posted:

Crazy how many "safe" Conservative seats came close to flipping. Just 8 or so more and the tories would be out entirely, drat.

Given that the Tories have already drained all of UKIP and significant chunks of SNP, do they have anywhere to gain in a second round of elections? Does Labour have enough momentum now that everyone has seen they are an eminently viable party that can win?

# ? Jun 9, 2017 21:48

Nonsense: Jan 26, 2007

Theresa May & Donald Trump doing all they can to re-litigate the 20th century

# ? Jun 9, 2017 21:49

Rastor: Jun 2, 2001

hakimashou posted:

It's a story in an American newspaper... nobody here knows or cares about Jeremy Corbyn unless they do british politics as a hobby or for work. Plus its just the headlines, its probably explained in the articles.

OK, sure. Let's take a look at the current NY Times article about the election.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/09/world/europe/uk-theresa-may-minority-government.html

quote:

The British Election That Somehow Made Brexit Even Harder

LONDON � What a mess.

Britain was supposed to wake up on Friday with the political clarity, finally, to begin formal negotiations to leave the European Union, a process scheduled to start in 10 days.

Instead, the country is staring at a hung Parliament and a deeply damaged Prime Minister Theresa May, her authority and credibility fractured by her failure to maintain her Conservative Party�s majority in Parliament.

Ignoring demands that she resign, the prime minister said on Friday that she would cling to power by forming a minority government with the support of the Democratic Unionist Party of Northern Ireland.

Because the Conservatives won the most seats and the most votes, Mrs. May gets the first chance to form a new government, despite winning only 318 seats, 12 fewer than in 2015, and short of a formal majority of 326 in the 650-seat House of Commons. The Democratic Unionists won 10.

But minority governments tend to be fragile and short-lived, and many expect that Mrs. May will be a lame-duck prime minister, that she may not last as long as a year and that she will not lead her party into another election.

For European Union leaders, who were expecting her to emerge with a reinforced majority, the uncertainty is unwelcome, especially as they try to prioritize issues such as climate change and their relationship with an unpredictable and unfriendly President Trump. There is also resentment that, once again, the British have complicated things out of political hubris and partisan self-interest.

Mrs. May called the snap election three years early � and her decision backfired. So did the decision by her predecessor, David Cameron, who called the referendum on European Union membership in the first place.

�I thought surrealism was a Belgian invention,� said Guy Verhofstadt, a former prime minister of Belgium who is the European Parliament�s chief coordinator on Britain�s exit from the bloc. �Yet another own goal: after Cameron, now May.�

Without question now, Britain is not ready for the negotiations, having spent the past year largely avoiding a real debate on the topic, other than a vague argument over the merits of a �hard Brexit� (as a clean break from the European Union is known), versus a �soft Brexit,� which would require more compromise.

Brussels, by contrast, has a negotiating team led by a former European commissioner, Michel Barnier, and it has published detailed negotiating guidelines, agreed upon by the bloc�s 27 other member states. While Britain seems more divided, the European Union appears to have achieved unusual unity.

And the �Brexit� clock is ticking. On Friday morning, the president of the European Council, Donald Tusk, warned that London faced a firm deadline to complete talks � March 2019 � and that any delay raised the risk of failing to reach a deal.

�We don�t know when Brexit talks start. We know when they must end,� Mr. Tusk wrote on Twitter. �Do your best to avoid a �no deal� as result of �no negotiations.��

For now, the scramble in London is over the shape of the government. Mrs. May�s Conservative Party lost its majority but still won the most seats, doing particularly well in constituencies that backed withdrawal from the European Union.

What a mess, Britain was supposed to wake up with a huge conservative majority! Now they only have 318 seats. But what about Labour and Corbyn?

quote:

The revitalized Labour Party did better in urban seats that were opposed to leaving the bloc.

Labour, under Jeremy Corbyn, ran what political analysts regard as an excellent and optimistic campaign, promising an end to austerity, more money for health and social welfare and free tuition. Labour gained 29 seats to reach 261, with one seat left to decide. But that would still leave it far short of a majority, even in combination with other sympathetic parties, especially since the Scottish National Party lost 21 of its 56 seats, a serious blow to its goal of Scotland�s independence.

OK, we've stated the facts, buried one third of the way through the article. Labour gained 29 seats. They are still far short of a majority! Don't want to forget that important fact. That's everything we need to say about them I think. Let's finish out the article without even mentioning Labour or Corbyn any further.

quote:

Only a year ago, the vote on European Union membership had seemingly divided the country along clear lines between �Leave� and �Remain.� The vote on Thursday erased such clarity, delivering mixed messages, even as Britain remained deeply split � by region, class and generation.

Mrs. May�s challenge will be to form a coherent Brexit position that can command support from a much more diverse set of legislators, said Gus O�Donnell, a former Cabinet secretary and member of the House of Lords.

He noted that the Democratic Unionists will have their own interests about a post-Brexit relationship with Ireland, including border and customs regulations. Conservative legislators from Scotland, on whom Mrs. May will also depend, will urge her to try to retain access to the single market of the European Union, which Mrs. May previously rejected.

�Remember, she�s still got lots of hard-line Brexiters in her own party who don�t want to stay in the single market, want to move away from the European Court of Justice and don�t want to pay any money to the E.U.,� Mr. O�Donnell said. �She�s got to try to bring all that together.�

Eric Pickles, a former chairman of the Conservative Party, said that while Mrs. May was likely to stay on as prime minister, the government�s negotiating strategy might have to be refined.

�I think we now have to build a grand coalition of support,� he said. �I don�t see how realistic it is now to be leaving the single market and the customs union � but there is leaving and leaving, and it is going to be up to negotiations.�

The Democratic Unionists are the harder-line, mainly Protestant party in Northern Ireland and support Brexit. And they are particularly committed to keeping Mr. Corbyn out of power because of his history of sympathy with Irish Republicans, including Sinn Fein, which was the political wing of the Irish Republican Army.

Arlene Foster, leader of the D.U.P., said that she had spoken to Mrs. May, �but I think it is too soon to talk about what we�re going to do.� She said she would explore with Mrs. May �how we can help bring stability to our nation.�

But earlier Friday, Mrs. Foster was not optimistic about the tenure of Mrs. May, saying: �It will be difficult for her to survive given that she was presumed at the start of the campaign, which seems an awfully long time ago, to come back with maybe a hundred, maybe more, in terms of her majority.�

Mrs. May is certain to face demands from lawmakers in her own party that she change her leadership style and consult more widely. Nigel Evans, a senior Conservative lawmaker, blamed the party�s manifesto, which had been prepared by a small group and hit traditional Tory supporters. �We didn�t shoot ourselves in the foot, we shot ourselves in the head,� he told the BBC.

For the past year, the debate about the exit from the European Union in Britain has been limited to vague promises of repatriating British funds from the European budget, controlling immigration and negotiating a favorable trade deal. Britons have heard little about the cost of leaving the world�s biggest free-trade bloc � not least the tens of billions of pounds owed to Brussels for existing liabilities such as pension obligations and investment commitments in the current European Union budget.

�The British public have not at all been prepared for having to pay a large check to Brussels to settle our debts in this divorce,� said Peter Ricketts, a former ambassador to France and now an independent lawmaker in the House of Lords.

Mrs. May told voters that she wanted to start negotiating a trade deal immediately � something categorically ruled out by the 27 countries on the other side of the table. They want to talk about a divorce settlement first: about the rights of European Union citizens in Britain, and of Britons in Europe (doable, officials say); about the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, which remains a member of the bloc (trickier); and about the most contentious issue in any divorce: the money.

Only when �sufficient progress� has been made on these issues, the European Union says, can the talks move on toward a framework for a future trade deal and to designing a transitional agreement that would bridge the end of British membership in the bloc � March 2019 � until a final deal is ratified by the other 27 states.

Even before talks have started, the trust level is weak. A dinner Mrs. May had with the president of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, was leaked in astonishing detail to a German newspaper by Mr. Juncker�s team. The leaks were widely condemned by officials � but their content was described as accurate.

Mrs. May had described her vision of a post-Brexit Britain in much the same way as she did to her country�s voters: prosperous, open to the world, and closely intertwined with Europe�s single market � the status quo, but without the open borders, the budget contributions and the oversight of the European Court of Justice. �Let us make �Brexit� a success,� she said at the dinner.

The next day, after a call from Mr. Juncker, Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany gave a speech in Parliament. �I have a feeling that a few Britons are deluding themselves,� she said. �That, however, is a waste of time.�

�There is no desire to punish Britain,� said Thomas Kleine-Brockhoff, a former adviser to the German president and now director of the Berlin office of the German Marshall Fund. But for the European Union to remain a viable and attractive club, leaving it must come at a cost, he said. �There has to be a difference between being in and being out.�

Since taking over as prime minister last July, Mrs. May has talked incessantly about the exit from the European Union, while saying very little of substance. Repeating that �Brexit means Brexit� and that she would �make a success of Brexit,� the prime minister presented herself to voters as the person to get the best deal for Britain � but without defining the deal.

The Evening Standard, a London newspaper edited by a Conservative former chancellor of the Exchequer, George Osborne, published 10 questions a month ago about the exit from the European Union, challenging the government to answer them. Among them: How is the withdrawal going to increase trade after leaving the biggest free-trading bloc in the world? How is market access for London�s financial services industry going to be secured? How is migration supposed to be cut to the tens of thousands when no one can identify the businesses whose labor supply will be restricted?

�Not one of these questions has been even addressed, let alone answered, by the main political parties in this election,� the newspaper wrote in an editorial on the eve of the vote. �As a result, it provides no mandate for the details of Brexit.�

In any case, officials say, the mandate matters less than the balance of power at the negotiating table in Brussels.

�We have a weak hand of cards,� said one senior British official, who requested anonymity to discuss the government�s position �The E.U.�s hand is much stronger.�

# ? Jun 9, 2017 21:49

tag youre fat: Aug 16, 2013; C'est l'homme ideal
charme au masculin

How many British MPs do you think actually know what the Good Friday Agreement is

# ? Jun 9, 2017 21:49

SHY NUDIST GRRL: Feb 15, 2011; Communism will help more white people than anyone else. Any equal measures unfairly provide less to minority populations just because there's less of them. Democracy is truly the tyranny of the mob.

Bip Roberts posted:

Wut

https://mobile.twitter.com/natesilver538/status/710933170712154112?lang=en

~curb your enthusiasm theme~

# ? Jun 9, 2017 21:51

pathetic little tramp: Dec 12, 2005; by Hillary Clinton's assassins; Fallen Rib

Pener Kropoopkin posted:

https://twitter.com/frankcottrell_b/status/873264652096077824

So is May's bungled election going to actually re-ignite the Troubles?

# ? Jun 9, 2017 21:53

Vox Nihili: May 28, 2008

Not a Step posted:

Given that the Tories have already drained all of UKIP and significant chunks of SNP, do they have anywhere to gain in a second round of elections? Does Labour have enough momentum now that everyone has seen they are an eminently viable party that can win?

i think when Brexit actually happens there will be a big opportunity to build more moment and finally throw them out

problem is there probably wont be a conveniently-timed election to take advantage of that

# ? Jun 9, 2017 21:53

Captain_Maclaine: Sep 30, 2001; Every moment I'm alive, I pray for death!

pathetic little tramp posted:

So is May's bungled election going to actually re-ignite the Troubles?

Sure, why not.

# ? Jun 9, 2017 21:53

Jose: Jul 24, 2007; Adrian Chiles is a broadcaster and writer

pathetic little tramp posted:

So is May's bungled election going to actually re-ignite the Troubles?

she announced she was partnering with the DUP without confirming it with them so who loving knows whats going to happen except i think shes not long for this job

# ? Jun 9, 2017 21:56

Peel: Dec 3, 2007

PleasingFungus posted:

the first page of this thread is a lot of fun now

i've genuinely never been happier to be wrong as gently caress, my estimation of corbyn was trying to correct for the plp loving him over but obviously didn't correct hard enough

# ? Jun 9, 2017 21:59

hakimashou: Jul 15, 2002; Upset Trowel

Rastor posted:

OK, sure. Let's take a look at the current NY Times article about the election.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/09/world/europe/uk-theresa-may-minority-government.html

What a mess, Britain was supposed to wake up with a huge conservative majority! Now they only have 318 seats. But what about Labour and Corbyn?

OK, we've stated the facts, buried one third of the way through the article. Labour gained 29 seats. They are still far short of a majority! Don't want to forget that important fact. That's everything we need to say about them I think. Let's finish out the article without even mentioning Labour or Corbyn any further.

What's the issue with all this supposed to be again?

# ? Jun 9, 2017 21:59

Peel: Dec 3, 2007

i defy anyone to predict this result after where labour had been for two years and the local elections without being a bill mitchell level crank though

# ? Jun 9, 2017 22:00

BobbyThompson: Mar 23, 2001

pathetic little tramp posted:

So is May's bungled election going to actually re-ignite the Troubles?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UOUeauLWEaE

# ? Jun 9, 2017 22:02

Zeroisanumber: Oct 23, 2010; Nap Ghost

pathetic little tramp posted:

So is May's bungled election going to actually re-ignite the Troubles?

Adams isn't going to start digging up the semtex over it, but he certainly isn't happy about the DUP being part of any governing coalition. I'd read it as a shot across the bow more than anything.

# ? Jun 9, 2017 22:11

Homeless Friend: Jul 16, 2007

hakimashou posted:

What's the issue with all this supposed to be again?

they should have shortened their post to nyt is trash, brevity folks

# ? Jun 9, 2017 22:11

Pener Kropoopkin: Jan 30, 2013

If the DUP openly violates the Good Friday Agreement, what's to stop Sinn Fein from taking their seats just to gently caress them over? Aside from the republican politics, of course.

# ? Jun 9, 2017 22:16

Nix Panicus: Feb 25, 2007

Pener Kropoopkin posted:

If the DUP openly violates the Good Friday Agreement, what's to stop Sinn Fein from taking their seats just to gently caress them over? Aside from the republican politics, of course.

From what I understand, Sinn Fein exists as a political party for the sole reason of never taking their seats. I don't think any bait short of full independence would ever win them over.

# ? Jun 9, 2017 22:18

Itzena: Aug 2, 2006; Nothing will improve the way things currently are.; Slime TrainerS

PostNouveau posted:

What happens if no one can get the numbers to form a government?

The Tories will probably try to run a minority government i.e. nothing will happen. Then Brexit negotiations kick off, the Leave fuckheads get really, really angry because the only deal May might be able to get through Parliament would be the softest of soft Brexits (read: the UK still has all the obligations and restrictions of being in Europe but without any voice in the European Parliament) and the next election gets called immediately thereafter. May is only PM as scapegoat for Brexit, imo, but Boris (worra ledge) is probably too sodding thick to realise that.

Also this tweet hasn't aged well:
https://twitter.com/JohnCleese/status/866188904814260226

:thunk:

# ? Jun 9, 2017 22:20

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# ? Apr 28, 2024 05:17

pathetic little tramp: Dec 12, 2005; by Hillary Clinton's assassins; Fallen Rib

Pener Kropoopkin posted:

If the DUP openly violates the Good Friday Agreement, what's to stop Sinn Fein from taking their seats just to gently caress them over? Aside from the republican politics, of course.

SF would have to pledge allegiance or fealty to the queen or whatevs, so do they hate DUP enough to do that?

# ? Jun 9, 2017 22:20

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > C-SPAM > BREXIT DAY

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