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and i must meme posted:
looks like the nation is fully 2/3 fuckwads, could be a problem
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May 2, 2017 09:02
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 uhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh
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May 6, 2017 07:47
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Fallen Hamprince posted:bernie didn't even get as far as corbyn did bernie is immensely popular nationwide in the US, corbyn is barely above clinton level with the UK national electorate
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May 6, 2017 07:52
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Concerned Citizen posted:greece defaulting on its debt would generally be a mutual suicide thing, but it would hit greece much, much harder than the rest of the eu. Defaulting on unsustainable public debt isn't suicide. Indeed, Greece has already technically defaulted several times, taking small haircuts and accepting bailouts. I think they should have defaulted and aggressively restructured a much, much bigger chunk of their debt, as their current debt-to-GDP ratio is barely sustainable and basically mandates perpetual austerity. If anything, saddling future generations with a lifetime of debt peonage is suicide.
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May 8, 2017 22:12
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Concerned Citizen posted:greece would be ejected from the common market with no trade deals, absolutely no ability to finance debt, a worthless new currency, and an entire continent that would gladly watch them crumble. they'd be wiped out entirely, which is the reason why merkel was able to call the bluff without fear. the end result is they still get austerity, except 10x worse. Most of this isn't really true. Yes, at first they would not be considered creditworthy, but nations have survived defaults. Look at Argentina, which discharged most of its debt in the period from 2002-2010:  Here is Argentina's GDP growth during that period:  Here's Greece's GDP under extreme austerity measures:  Meanwhile, they're treading water on the debt, which is absolutely unsustainable and will require future restructurings to massage as much money out of the country as possible:  Greece is a sovereign nation. Whether they would actually be kicked out of the EU is not clear; nor is the currency question clear. What is clear is that they are hosed for the foreseeable future under the German plan.
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May 8, 2017 22:43
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To be clear, no realistic default would be a 100% default, it would be a massive restructuring of the debt. A small haircut isn't enough, they need to get under 100% debt-to-GDP.
Vox Nihili has issued a correction as of 22:50 on May 8, 2017 |
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May 8, 2017 22:45
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hakimashou posted:I think they'd be hosed for quite a while either way, they dug themselves into a deep hole. Right but one path offers at least an eventual solution, whereas eternal austerity offers an incredibly lovely status quo for the foreseeable future. In a period as short of a decade the nation could potentially recover from a major default.
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May 8, 2017 22:47
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Tacky-rear end Rococco posted:this hyper-rationality that Marxists ascribe to themselves, the ability to peer into the true nature of things and see beyond the hallucinations of the hated liberals, has not been much evidenced in practice. you'd think it would give them some practical advantage to be able to see the world as it really is and not be afflicted by these delusions, but...nope, apparently not. nice, where is this from?
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May 8, 2017 23:05
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Bulgogi Hoagie posted:actually hyperinflation and stuff that comes with it can potentially knock a country out for a decade or more. a decade is a pretty reasonable definition for foreseeable future in my opinion Or there could be an explosion of economic growth once the enormous burden of servicing unsustainable debt is finally removed. What's certain is that the present debt load and accompanying austerity will continue to be a crippling anchor on growth and will instantly morph into another crisis with the next downturn.
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May 8, 2017 23:25
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Jose posted:a substantial amount of people will vote for them despite hating all of their policies and liking labours because they're competent and labour aren't Makes me glad that our Republicans are by contrast disorganized and increasingly distrusted dipshits, at least.
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May 8, 2017 23:38
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Concerned Citizen posted:there'd be no explosion of economic growth. it'd be very difficult for greece to remain in the euro after a default because greek banks would lose the ability to gain liquidity from the ecb, necessitating a bailout with money that doesn't exist. this might be possible if it were an orderly, negotiated default, but in the more likely event it would force the greek government to re-introduce the drachma and therefore put it on the fast track to grexit. unlike argentina, greece has no real prospect for prosperity outside the eurozone. in fact, its default would precipitate a financial crisis that may put the entire continent (or world) in recession - magnifying the impact. the immediate impact would likely be shortages of basic necessities, dramatic inflation, and collapse of much of the private sector. it would take months to even produce physical drachma for people to spend. can the state even survive that? it's unclear. Again, most of this presupposes that Greece would have to reintroduce the drachma, which I'm not convinced is true. The prospect of an EU-wide collapse also strikes me as extremely unlikely when you look at the actual numbers in terms of exposure for the lenders. It's just not that much money relative to the combined economies of France, Germany, and co. I don't believe that starvation or complete collapse of the private sector are by any means outcomes necessarily predetermined by a default. Again, you can look at historical defaults for some precedent; indeed, what's going on right now in Greece is quite similar to the disaster stories that tend to follow a default. The difference is that the current "plan" has zero future upside. I also don't buy that Greece is so uniquely situated that the economy could not recover following a default/major restructuring. That strikes me as an extraordinary claim. Again, lenders tend to return after a major restructuring as they have an opportunity to lend to a state with low debt. It's somewhat counter-intuitive, but banks are lending quite willingly to, e.g., Argentina despite it's series of defaults that have continued to as recently as a couple years ago (2014 I believe). Yes, in the short term there would absolutely be additional hardship. But hardship is now unavoidable, as the EU is unwilling to offer a realistic restructuring plan from it's end of the table. The hardship is ongoing! Vox Nihili has issued a correction as of 00:11 on May 9, 2017 |
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May 9, 2017 00:05
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Concerned Citizen posted:well, to avoid having to reintroduce the drachma, greece would have to avoid bank collapse. they wouldn't be defaulting on germany/france, but rather would default on imf/ecb loans. greek banks are 100% reliant on the ecb for euros. they have no other way to get them because no one in the private sector is dumb enough to loan money to the greek banks. if they default on ecb loans, the ecb at that point will cut them off from ELA, which will mean the banks have no euros, which will trigger bank closures. the greeks will then have no choice but to re-introduce the drachma. this is essentially the issue - in order to stay in the EU, the greeks need the ecb to continue to provide their banks with euros despite the fact that they just defaulted on them. the ecb has said that a default on ecb loans would end the euro supply, so it would basically be a game of chicken. I think the Germans sat down with Yanis and basically convinced him of all of what you've written here. Notably, economists, lenders, and the IMF said much of the same about Argentina in 2002. Obviously all of the starting points were different (no EU/euro, etc.) but I don't think a single American or EU economist endorsed the Argentinian default as it was happening--everyone declared the country doomed. They were absolutely convinced that a default would lead to hyperinflation and megadeath but shockingly, they were incorrect. In turns out the lenders have an enormous incentive to discourage a default. In fact, managing the crisis in Argentina required drastic action by the government. Capital flight and runs on the banks were halted by a government-mandated freeze and extraordinary limitations on banking. see: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corralito I haven't read anything that indicates Greece would not be able to put similar measures in place--just that it would violate their obligations to the EU, but again, they're already violating several obligations by defaulting in the first place. The Greek government would also basically have to restructure itself to make ends meet on top of restructuring the debt, which would also be painful, but it has been done before. I also strongly disagree w/ Yanis that Greece has little potential for growth. The Greek GDP is almost down to half of what it used to be. That indicates to me that there is the potential for upside; I don't think that the situation has changed so much in a decade that even a return to normalcy is out of reach. And finally, the whole point of the article is that Greece should default. "Does this mean that Greece ought to grin and bear the massive and misanthropic idiocy of the bailout-austerity package imposed upon it by the troika (EU-ECB-IMF)? Of course not. We should certainly default. But within the Eurozone." This is the argument that follows, and it is basically what I have been proposing: http://www.yanisvaroufakis.eu/2012/02/18/greek-default-does-not-equal-greek-exit/ The problem is that Germany browbeat Yanis and the inexperienced government into surrendering rather than pushing the issue by beginning a default. Now the debt is increasingly consolidated with sovereign entities that have leverage against Greece and little reason to accept the sort of buyout that Argentina was able to force. Greece still needs to force much more restructuring at some point, but I doubt anything will happen until the next economic crisis. Vox Nihili has issued a correction as of 01:37 on May 9, 2017 |
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May 9, 2017 01:25
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Nanomashoes posted:Jeremy Corbyn has made all these terrible decisions that doomed his party like uhh... having bad articles written about him. He dropped the ball on Brexit, right?
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May 9, 2017 01:53
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rudatron posted:He campaigned with his party. I thought it was like, rather than taking a firm stand against Brexit, Corbyn was more or less on the "well maybe this could be a good thing" wavelength.
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May 9, 2017 02:16
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Baloogan posted:If labor had the political sense to run the idiot child of a liked ex PM they might be doing better! sexy idiot child* that part is important
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May 9, 2017 05:34
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Homeless Friend posted:This reminds me of ohio polling that showed some real lol results on trade /w Hillary vs. Bernie a ton of people will just pick the candidate theyre supporting for every answer on these sorts of specific polling questions regardless of context
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May 9, 2017 18:59
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can someone explain why the tories are still popular despite the extreme brexit death thats about to take place under their watch? just not enough economic collapse yet or what?
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May 11, 2017 22:07
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public poorly informed, fascist
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May 12, 2017 00:50
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hakimashou posted:It's actually insane the degree to which the Labour Party has turned on Tony Blair. Nah, if your own guy turned out to be an unpopular failure you absolutely cast him loose. See: George W Bush and the Republicans.
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May 17, 2017 20:35
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hakimashou posted:Tony blair won three elections in a row and was PM longer than maggie thatcher. Tony Blair is absolutely to blame for the UK involvement in Iraq. he specifically resigned in large part to take responsibility for the mounting casualties http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=10102727 "As British casualties in Iraq mounted, Blair's popularity plummeted. When he was first elected, 63 percent of Britons said he could be trusted, according to a recent poll by YouGov/Daily Telegraph. Today, that number is 22 percent. His unwavering support for the war in Iraq explains a lot of that decline."
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May 17, 2017 23:54
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hakimashou posted:Its just madness to poo poo on your own guy like that. so surely youd never poo poo on corbyn right? since hes the face of labour at present? hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm
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May 18, 2017 00:11
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hakimashou posted:Fortunately I am not British and don't have to make these hard choices. but surely youd urge labour devotees to faithfully follow whoever heads the party, given your rhetoric. otherwise theyd be doing nothing but shooting themselves in the foot, right?
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May 18, 2017 00:25
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hakimashou posted:Well, you follow a winner, you poo poo on a loser for losing. blair went to poo poo and resigned in shame & deep unpopularity so he was rightfully discarded, friendo
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May 18, 2017 00:30
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Baloogan posted:even your dreams are false no dreams are false because the future is vast & unknowable
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May 18, 2017 04:49
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Heard there might be some Corbmentum building up.
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May 22, 2017 20:34
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Captain_Maclaine posted:It really is remarkable that someone whose policies are "I will try to make your life better" is gaining on someone whose are "I will have your children burned alive to heat the saunas of the rich." She also wants to reinstate the torture of small furry animals.
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May 22, 2017 22:54
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Does th NHS include dental?
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May 22, 2017 22:59
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hakimashou posted:Picking a Labour leader who, along with his closest allies, are compromised by a history of supporting or sympathizing with terrorists and their causes is an awfully foolish risk in today's world. Terrorist attacks may not be preventable but they are foreseeable, most people would agree that it's more likely than not that terrorist attacks will be perpetrated in the future. Wow, I can't believe Corbyn supports terrorism. Probably a difficult sell.
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May 24, 2017 22:36
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Bulgogi Hoagie posted:i know like four tories who are in their early twenties and one ukip voter https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dissociative_identity_disorder
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May 26, 2017 19:18
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Bulgogi Hoagie posted:next you're gonna start accusing people of having sluggish schizophrenia lmao it's a joke, don't get too wound up
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May 26, 2017 19:44
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Baloogan posted:yeah p much this christ, i cant even imagine what that would be like
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May 27, 2017 10:12
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Lib Dems: why are they a thing?
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May 27, 2017 21:34
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Venom Snake posted:An anime communist is going to win the dem primary in 2020 and beat trump by 20 points. Please do not rehost my fanfic without permission.
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May 29, 2017 02:00
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hakimashou posted:That's a damning indictment of their constituents. Not sure if Brits or Americans can really speak from a position of moral authority on sound democratic governance these days.
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May 30, 2017 02:40
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I can only imagine what kind of hellish fascist we'd elect if we were under real existential threat from a more powerful neighbor.
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May 30, 2017 02:42
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corbyn please do not copy the clinton playbook
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May 30, 2017 23:57
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doesnt he always look like poo poo?
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Jun 1, 2017 05:01
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Party Boat posted:Rudd's dad died this week and May still forced her to go in her place i don't understand this at all. why skip the debate if youre just sending a lackey in your place to get hammered on? the whole point of skipping is to avoid presenting a target. now youve presented a target while also looking like a pathetic coward. im beginning to suspect that these tory fellows might not be terribly competent
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Jun 1, 2017 07:25
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Gum posted:May is notoriously bad at debates. Her turning up probably would have been a worse result for the Tories if you could believe it sounds like someone with real leadership qualities
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Jun 1, 2017 22:54
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bump_fn posted:corbyn is bernie and bernie would have won nah, bernie is broadly popular w/ unaligned folks in the US, corbyn quite unpopular w/ them in the UK he seems to be the closest british equivalent, though, in much the same way that chowing down on blood sausage and beans is the british equivalent of a BBQ
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Jun 1, 2017 23:04
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