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CottonWolf
Jul 20, 2012

Good ideas generator

Homeless Friend posted:

lol britain as important

I initially read it as impotent and the whole sentence made more sense.

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CottonWolf
Jul 20, 2012

Good ideas generator

I swear John Harris is one of the few journalists left who actually has real conversations with ordinary people, but yeah, his web series was really good last election and it seems to be hitting the same notes here. As bleak as Britain circa 2017 deserves.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C9SqH7ynY1g

CottonWolf
Jul 20, 2012

Good ideas generator

Jose posted:

Less than 30% turnout in lots of these elections is shocking

I'm not sure. Isn't that relatively standard for local elections not held with another bigger vote?

CottonWolf
Jul 20, 2012

Good ideas generator

Bouncy castle ground is the coolest thing I've seen today, that's for sure.

CottonWolf
Jul 20, 2012

Good ideas generator

and i must meme posted:

i don't know if integration actually matters. most of the people who support anti-immigrant parties live in almost entirely white towns, the only way they know about immigrants is through the media.

most of these people are just straight up ethnic nationalists. only ethnic british people are british, and only british people get to use our public services/work here/live here at all

Surely, it's fear more than true ethnic nationalism? The lack of interactions with real immigrants lets them be painted however, which naturally leads to reactions against things perceived to be a threat. Put a load of immigrants around them, and I'd bet money that in most cases they'd become less worried about them. Not that that solves the political problem.

CottonWolf
Jul 20, 2012

Good ideas generator

Bulgogi Hoagie posted:

yeah this is working out great lol

Thing is, this is exactly what's not happening. Where they settle isn't where he anti-immigrant feeling is.

CottonWolf
Jul 20, 2012

Good ideas generator

Double lol.

https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/866668930290655233

It's not going to happen, but if Corbyn won a majority, I would laugh for hours.

CottonWolf
Jul 20, 2012

Good ideas generator

I refuse to feel hope.

CottonWolf
Jul 20, 2012

Good ideas generator

Jose posted:

May is live on tv soon and they pulled thier manifesto lol

Seems up on their website. I bet they made a tiny change with no fanfare so they can be like "Look it was there all along!"

CottonWolf
Jul 20, 2012

Good ideas generator

whomupclicklike posted:

Will Green ever poll above 2 percent ever again or should I just start rallying around labour

Unless you're in Brighton or Bristol West, don't vote Green.

CottonWolf
Jul 20, 2012

Good ideas generator

Jose posted:

seems the interview with may was pre-recorded and she just talked about corbyn the entire time lol

Isn't it at 7?

CottonWolf
Jul 20, 2012

Good ideas generator

I don't think I have the patience to watch TM yelling "STRONG AND STABLE" to unrelated questions for half an hour.

CottonWolf
Jul 20, 2012

Good ideas generator

Four eyes?

https://twitter.com/GroomB/status/867495075563143170

CottonWolf
Jul 20, 2012

Good ideas generator

I know it's the polls tricking me. But I want Corbyn to crush May under his jam-smeared heel so hard. It would be beautiful.

The speech is pretty reasonable too. The press will tear him apart, but what's different about that...

CottonWolf
Jul 20, 2012

Good ideas generator

Corek posted:

wait a minute, that polling company name...

C-SPAM's official polling company.

CottonWolf
Jul 20, 2012

Good ideas generator

It looks like it's been taken down. I'm sure the cheesemaster had a bright future ahead of him though.

CottonWolf
Jul 20, 2012

Good ideas generator

Everything about this documentary is insane.

CottonWolf
Jul 20, 2012

Good ideas generator

Condiv posted:

oh well you always trust a man with a crucifix

...to be a serial killer

CottonWolf
Jul 20, 2012

Good ideas generator

I hope everyone noticed the Cambridge guy's extremely large Hitler biography in his bedroom.

CottonWolf
Jul 20, 2012

Good ideas generator


Isn't this prerelease? Do we know if it's been corrected for demographics yet?

(Also, just put in my postal vote for the good ship Corb in my safe Tory seat.)

CottonWolf has issued a correction as of 12:39 on May 29, 2017

CottonWolf
Jul 20, 2012

Good ideas generator

Do not say those words aloud. The Tory media machine might be listening. :tinfoil:

CottonWolf
Jul 20, 2012

Good ideas generator

Yeah. I can't imagine that the SNP wouldn't demand a second Scottish referendum as a price of coalition. There's no way that Labour can afford to go for that. Much better to call their bluff and say, "Vote for us on a confidence and supply basis or be the party that let the Conservatives in". Though, given the Tory resurgence in Scotland, maybe that's not the ultimatum it once would have been.

CottonWolf
Jul 20, 2012

Good ideas generator

With their 8 MPs? Nah, they're going to be marginal whatever happens. It's going to be Tory majority/minority government or an SNP/Labour coalition.

CottonWolf
Jul 20, 2012

Good ideas generator

jBrereton posted:

...and her only being in charge of the tories because Michael Gove stabbed BoJo in the back, killing both their hopes to lead the country.

It was a near perfect murder-suicide. Artful in its savagery.

CottonWolf
Jul 20, 2012

Good ideas generator

Right, lets see if either of them implode...

CottonWolf
Jul 20, 2012

Good ideas generator

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/869310335894925313

CottonWolf
Jul 20, 2012

Good ideas generator

I kind of want the Tories, if they have to win, to get 330 seats. Just to make clear the futility of all things.

CottonWolf
Jul 20, 2012

Good ideas generator


lol

pathetic little tramp posted:

Okay so UK people - the intricacies of the parliamentary system.

What happens if no parties can agree to a majority coalition?

It depends. The Tories would probabily end up running a minority government, on the logic that Labour wouldn't try and topple them in the middle of the Brexit negotiations, because they'd get crushed in the following election.

CottonWolf
Jul 20, 2012

Good ideas generator


That's a cool model. I do wonder about whether their sample sizes are big enough to get accurate constituency estimates in a multinomial regression though, even with partial pooling. Something like a referendum or the US election with only two choices would have been a considerably easier challenge.

E: Oh, misread, it's 7000*7 rather than 7000.

CottonWolf
Jul 20, 2012

Good ideas generator

Jose posted:

labour are going to lose but it isn't likely to be a landslide any more and that means the tories may decide to get rid of may lol

Jacob Rees-Mogg for neo-Tory PM imo.

CottonWolf
Jul 20, 2012

Good ideas generator

hakimashou posted:

No matter who wins the hobbit election, it will be funny.

If no one wins, it will be even more funny.

CottonWolf
Jul 20, 2012

Good ideas generator

A real salt of the earth type.

CottonWolf
Jul 20, 2012

Good ideas generator

ITV have Balls and Osbourne as their election night pundits.

CottonWolf
Jul 20, 2012

Good ideas generator

Baron Corbyn posted:

What kind of degenerate watches ITV's election night coverage?

I'm still watching BBC for Vine's magical CG castle, or whatever he's got this year. Watching George Osborne tear into May for sacking him would be entertaining though. And Ed Balls speaks for himself.

They're good gets.

CottonWolf
Jul 20, 2012

Good ideas generator

The most hung parliament. (I want be optimistic, but I can't actually see May losing.)

CottonWolf
Jul 20, 2012

Good ideas generator

nopantsjack posted:

They both have equal amounts of low charisma IMO

they both sound like old teachers banging on at you but Sanders sounds like a cartoon walrus which gives him the edge

I think when people are exposed to Corbyn, they like him. He's a chill old guy. They just don't think he's particularly prime ministerial.

CottonWolf
Jul 20, 2012

Good ideas generator


Olds: "The Conservatives have committed election fraud*? Ah, but Jeremy Corbyn's too much of a risk, isn't he? I think I'll still vote Tory, can't let a terrorist sympathiser into Number 10, and that May's a nice lady."

*allegedly

CottonWolf
Jul 20, 2012

Good ideas generator


...I genuinely don't understand that. Like, isn't Corbyn the most effective way of driving the country in a socialist direction that the left has had since about the 70s?

CottonWolf
Jul 20, 2012

Good ideas generator

Bryter posted:

The SPGB don't believe in moving the country in a socialist direction, they believe socialism has to be established globally.

Ah. Fair enough. Completely delusional, but fair enough. (At least, if they think that's a feasible aim, rather than an ideal.)

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CottonWolf
Jul 20, 2012

Good ideas generator

I love the way the polling industry is just collectively shrugging. They're all getting more or less the same raw data coming in and then their house corrections are converting that into a 15 point spread of estimates.

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