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Ika
Dec 30, 2004
Pure insanity

Is this a valid analogy to the entire Brexit trainwreck?

Image if you were a manager, and your employees get to go to your boss and define performance goals that you have to meet in order to keep your job. At the same time all of your employees hate you and want to get rid of you, and have completely opposite criteria for meeting the goals.

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Ika
Dec 30, 2004
Pure insanity

Gum posted:

She probably will but the bbc's declaration is based entirely on taking tories at their word

I wouldn't be surprised if she only got 80 due to backstabbing, but I expect she will stay in power because everybody else realizes they couldn't deal with the clusterfuck either and they just want to position themselves to take advantage of the ensueing chaos without having had their hands in it directly. Much like the last two years of british politics.

Ika
Dec 30, 2004
Pure insanity


Don't most of those parties want to avoid Brexit altogether or ensure a closer relationship than in the withdrawal agreement, while the ERG wants a no deal exit? That's gonna be a good partnership.

Ika
Dec 30, 2004
Pure insanity

Fallen Hamprince posted:

lmao may went to brussels with hat in hand and got a proverbial car door slammed on her proverbial dick

also it happened right after a leadership challenge so the tories are stuck with her useless rear end for another year, goddamn junkers you did it again dog

There isn't much point in giving may concessions, all that would accomplish is that the MPs that are pushing for rejecting the deal in order to renegotiate feel empowered to do that, it won't help the deal pass.

( https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9TyxxLHfBwE )

Ika
Dec 30, 2004
Pure insanity

How does this swire amendment work, will the MPs then vote on a different version of the withdrawal agreement than the one that was agreed with the EU, in the hopes that the EU (and all 27 nations) will then accept the changes without any other renegotiation? Or are they just planning on checking whether the withdrawal agreement will fail even without the backstop issue in order to determine whether there is any point in continuing? The latter seems far too logical for the current government.

Ika
Dec 30, 2004
Pure insanity

Fans posted:

The government has 3 days to negotiate something new. If they can't they'll have another vote on the deal as is.

All the amendment does is stop May running out the clock by constantly putting off votes as long as possible, because her aim is to wait until the last minute and then offer a vote that's "Her deal" or we drop straight off the No Deal cliff and bully all but the diehards into voting for it. Instead she has to eat a series of defeats that'll harden resistance to anyone ever voting for her deal as is and get everyone calling for her to wise the gently caress up and do something else.

I thought that was what the grieve amendment does, and the swire amendment is something different.

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1083031865735430146

Ika
Dec 30, 2004
Pure insanity

So the UK awarded a contract to a company without ships, to run a ferry service between two ports neither of which is capable of hosting ships, in order to show the EU that it is serious about no deal?

I remember an interview with the creators of "Yes, Prime Minister" a few years ago stating that the current political reality is much worse than anything that would have been believable satire back when they were making the series, and this just confirms it.

Ika
Dec 30, 2004
Pure insanity


Since those are the guys that want no-deal, shouldn't it follow that they have confidence in may's continuing leadership to lead to no deal?

Ika
Dec 30, 2004
Pure insanity

quote:

Just 9% of Conservative voters would switch to Labour in those circumstances, but 11% of current Labour voters said it would make them less likely to vote for the party.

Jeremy Corbyn has made efforts to underline the delicacy of the party’s electoral position in recent days, including at a speech in Wakefield, where he said it must bridge the Brexit divide in order to address nationwide problems of inequality.

A Best for Britain spokesman said the polling also showed that the vast majority of Labour voters would not desert the party if it committed to cancelling Brexit. It said the overall picture was skewed by Conservative and Ukip voters, but conceded that those were the voters the party needed to win over at the next general election.

The campaign group also said Labour would see a dividend from Lib Dem and Green voters. Of the Lib Dem voters polled, 39% would be more likely to back Labour and 40% of Green voters.

“It was a private poll that shows, like all of our public polling, that Labour members and supporters are clamouring to fight Brexit,” a Best for Britain spokesman said. “The poll shows that Conservative voters aren’t there just yet, but we are confident our campaign will get them there.”

Aren't there a lot more conservative voters than labour voters? Which means 9% of 2 * N is more than 11% of N, and it would be a net gain?

I mean percentages by themselves are meaningless, its like these kitchen stores that always have everything 50% off, but they have a base markup of 300%.

Ika
Dec 30, 2004
Pure insanity


What is she going to do, cross out the work not in the text "there will not be a hard border"?

Ika
Dec 30, 2004
Pure insanity

Obliterati posted:

They might be on it, but 'plan' is a little strong as few ministers are willing to tell their departments wtf is up so they're mostly improvising their own No Deal plans without ministerial input

Considering that the ministers seem to be assigned to departments with no regards to their knowledge about that field, that almost sounds like a good thing.

Ika
Dec 30, 2004
Pure insanity

I think the BBS also quoted somebody from the ERG saying "Just because we vote for the amendment now doesn't mean we have to vote for the final deal, if the EU actually agrees... ".

Ika
Dec 30, 2004
Pure insanity

^^^^^^ You don't use enough exclamation marks for that then.




An insane mind posted:

How...the backstop is non-negotiable right, everyone...literally everyone has said and is saying it's non-negotiable...is this the Tories thinking that because they can unilatiraly decide to revoke article 50 that pertains to all their negotiations with the EU?

Probably cause they go back on business deals all the time. "Oh you thought I would be paying back the loan with interest? Don't know what makes you think that"



Ika
Dec 30, 2004
Pure insanity


Yep, that is definitely taking back control of their borders.

Ika
Dec 30, 2004
Pure insanity

Isn't the problem delays due to customs on either side, and not the actual crossing itself? How will more ships help with that? Even if the problem is that the trucks are stuck on ships because there is no room for them to offload due to delays in customs, extra ships just means you have a floating parking lot.

Ika
Dec 30, 2004
Pure insanity


"Hard brexit will lead to a reunification referendum"

"Ok, lets ship them all our nuclear waste, then we don't have to deal with that"

Ika
Dec 30, 2004
Pure insanity

Der Meister posted:

what...exactly do a majority of MPs even want WRT brexit??

That is exactly what the EU has been asking for at least the past 6 months. The answer is, they don't know.

Ika
Dec 30, 2004
Pure insanity

Obliterati posted:

The original plan was to jump start trade deals with the Commonwealth, but this was leaked under the name 'Empire 2.0' and mysteriously Commonwealth states aren't keen.

That has got to be a joke. Right ..... ?

Ika
Dec 30, 2004
Pure insanity

The last 4 times I've flown to the US I never had to fill out the paper form, it was either self service touch screen terminals or nothing.

Ika
Dec 30, 2004
Pure insanity


"Nobody quite sure what it all means" - how is that different from the last 2+ years?

Ika
Dec 30, 2004
Pure insanity

I'm trying to figure out the worst case scenario, just so I am not surprised. Is there anything worse than the government collapsing a few days before the 29th, meaning the UK crashes out of the EU without a deal without having a functional government in place to manage the situation? If they lose a no condidence vote, and trigger an election, they couldn't revert article 50 even if they wanted to?

Ika
Dec 30, 2004
Pure insanity

So is the refusal to allow the vote to come back a third time an unusual precedent, or would it have happened to any other bill as well, except nobody would have cared much?

Ika
Dec 30, 2004
Pure insanity

Obliterati posted:

In ye olde times (i.e. 2010) a government that lost on a manifesto promise like this would have fallen the first time, let alone having a chance to repeat it

Even if it were some inane trivial bill where only a third of the MPs show up?

Ika
Dec 30, 2004
Pure insanity

If they do cancel / retrigger article 50 (Which they aren't really allowed to do, but its May, so who knows...)

BREXIT: "Have you tried turning it off and then on again?"

Ika
Dec 30, 2004
Pure insanity

Within a minute: "It wouldn't be fair to have a second referendum". "It isn't fair that I can't bring my deal to a third vote"

Ika
Dec 30, 2004
Pure insanity

I wonder what option would win if they had a series of 8 or 9 votes, each time saying "Vote for the 1-3 options you would like to see least", and removing it, until one is left. Basically forcing em to make a choice for something.

Ika
Dec 30, 2004
Pure insanity

So since "Vote on my deal and I'll quit" failed, now its "Vote on my deal or you're fired / general election" time?

Ika
Dec 30, 2004
Pure insanity

I happened to watch the flying circus episode with this sketch tonight and its (un)surprising how it matches the current situation: http://www.montypython.net/scripts/apology-pol.php

Ika
Dec 30, 2004
Pure insanity

Did they seriously say that there shouldn't be a general election until they would win it. I meant obviously that is always the sentiment, but to actually come out and say it?

Ika
Dec 30, 2004
Pure insanity

Dance Officer posted:

Are these sorts of tax deals actually allowed in the EU, or is this one of those things the UK stayed out of?

Because I vaguely remember Starbucks having some sort of tax deal in the Netherlands, and the EU courts putting a stop to it.

This is never gonna happen, but imagine if the EU had said single market access also implies uniform corporate tax rate, to prevent those weird country specific shuffling deals. The companies would probably try to move the costs outside the EU but that is easier to deal with.

Ika
Dec 30, 2004
Pure insanity


So he is the scheming evil grand vizier?

Ika
Dec 30, 2004
Pure insanity

Hexyflexy posted:

Yeh - if you've read Small Gods by Terry Pratchett, that guy is Vorbis.

I was actually reading interesting times earlier today on the ride home, with lord hong, but vorbis is probably a better fit.

Ika
Dec 30, 2004
Pure insanity

You would think the easiest way to deal with the mess is telling Thomas Cook to continue flying for 2 weeks to bring the people back home, instead of spending 5x as much to have other airlines do that.

Ika
Dec 30, 2004
Pure insanity

poty posted:

https://twitter.com/MehreenKhn/status/1182348059105202176

are they really going to pull it off. were they all waiting for me to predict an extension wrongly

Even if they do, parlament is going to reject it.

Ika
Dec 30, 2004
Pure insanity

Regarding the election date and students: Can you not just go in and vote in the week or two leading up to the election in your local town hall in the UK? Here in germany that has accounted for double digit percentages of the vote the last few election s. (At least in my area)

Ika
Dec 30, 2004
Pure insanity

MikeCrotch posted:

If you want to vote early you've got to do a postal vote basically

Officially it is a postal vote here as well, but you go to the town office, they give you the postal vote stuff next to a voting booth and a postal vote dropoff bin.

Dravs posted:

This is a good idea that would enable the young, poor and disenfranchised to have an easier time of managing to find time to vote, therefore it will never be allowed.

I know some right wing type parties here don't like it (probably for the same reason its not done in the UK), but it works great for everybody who isn't home on the sunday of the vote.

Ika
Dec 30, 2004
Pure insanity

Dravs posted:

You get to vote on a Sunday? Again, in the UK that would mean that students and the working class would be able to find time to vote as they would usually get that day off. Oh no, in the UK we have to vote on a week day.

Ya, and there are tons of vote offices so you don't have to go very far and often run into neighbors / friends walking there and just chat on the way there or afterwards. Fairly communal event compared to how it works in the US.

Ika
Dec 30, 2004
Pure insanity

Jel Shaker posted:

I’ve noticed a few brexit party signs while driving on the M40, but they say “don’t trust **** in a ditch boris, vote brexit”

I don’t understand, I thought he said die in a ditch, what 4 letter word are they trying to associate with BoJo?

dead?

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Ika
Dec 30, 2004
Pure insanity

jaete posted:

Good news! The EU cannot unilaterally decide to extend the transition period, the UK need to explicitly ask for it

Also the transition period can IIRC only be extended once and only by a maximum of two years

It's a good thing the UK media are informing the people of these facts, and scrutinising the conservatives' campaign promises, so we can all make informed decisions and have an informed conversation

Doesn't the UK Brexit legislation include a clause "may not be extended ever we pinky swear"?

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