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knox_harrington
Feb 18, 2011

Running no point.

big scary monsters posted:

Based on that Juncker meeting analysis she's certainly what this country deserves.

That said, I myself have been holding Brexit talks of late, and have successfully negotiated a deal to leave the EU I'm moving to Norway this month.

How does voting work after you #brexit? What constituency do you vote in?

I am likely to be heading off to live in Switzerland shortly and won't be resident for at least a few years.

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knox_harrington
Feb 18, 2011

Running no point.

Demiurge4 posted:

Long term renting sucks, landlords who own lots of houses they rent out suck. If you rent a lone standing house for +3 years you should be able to force a buy on it. Landlord can't force you out early unless a court finds you criminally negligent or you commit a serious crime while renting. I'm more ambivalent on apartments.

As I understand it you're generally better off avoiding landlords who rent out single or small numbers of houses as they are more likely not to have enough cash to maintain the place properly.

jBrereton posted:

No, I'm saying that people on HB are more or less like any other tenant, but typically with less stuff to put up as collateral/less chance of successfully getting the money you are owed if it ends up in small claims court. I can understand why banks won't lend to landlords in that instance, and hence why landlords are reluctant to take them on as a result.

More housing being built would help this unfortunate situation.

Interesting article in this week's Economist on this: https://www.economist.com/blogs/speakerscorner/2017/04/battle-builders

knox_harrington
Feb 18, 2011

Running no point.

jBrereton posted:

What an incredibly moronic article.

"In the big cities where local government cuts have been enormous, it looks like Labour is not doing so well in the last few years!!!!!!" yeah no poo poo, what about Big Gid's policy to replace any council houses sold with fresh housing? Oh that hasn't happened whatsoever, Nice.

True, but it poses problems for Corbs promoting Labour as the party of house building.

knox_harrington
Feb 18, 2011

Running no point.

LemonDrizzle posted:



The Shadow Chancellor addressing the public, today, under the banners of the Communist Party of Great Britain (Marxist-Leninist) and the Assad regime.

Seriously there is no way I can vote for these clowns.

knox_harrington
Feb 18, 2011

Running no point.

TheRat posted:

You have some rather weird priorities.

Not supporting Assad, not believing in communism and not in favour of "fomenting the overthrow of capitalism" are not that weird.

knox_harrington
Feb 18, 2011

Running no point.

Spangly A posted:

the tories are selling turkey planes you dumb gently caress

Come on, there's no need to be like that.

Dabir posted:

You weren't going to anyway.

I would vote for Labour if they weren't led by total idiots.

knox_harrington
Feb 18, 2011

Running no point.

Spangly A posted:

there really is though

you poo poo your pants at seeing a flag, assuming it means something it pretty clearly doesn't, and claim this is Labour Bad. But actually selling weapons to the regimes you care so much about wouldn't bother you?

What, are you going to vote green or something?


Please don't confuse "really crap at leading a political party" with bad policies. Labour have great policies. They're just led by people really bad at stage-managing national level politics. The party that are really good at this stuff are literal child rapists with a 25 year record of worldwide failure behind their economy.

Your personal attack kinda makes you the pantshitter.

Seriously campaigning as a communist is tone deaf and alienates a huge swathe of the population. There is no way Labour can make an impact on the election without appealing to the Guardian reading Islington sector. I'm a left leaning voter but listening to McDonnell I am basically his enemy - there is no-one for me to vote for in this election.

knox_harrington
Feb 18, 2011

Running no point.

Ewan posted:

So, who has the best summer BBQ recipes?

Big bit of pork shoulder covered in dry rub (paprika, cumin, chilli, cayenne, garlic). Cook at 105C indirect over wood chips for about 8 hours until internal temp is ~90C. Shred + serve with collard greens + coleslaw.

Pochoclo posted:

- Since you're European and used to lovely meats

You have no idea what you're talking about.

knox_harrington
Feb 18, 2011

Running no point.

Ewan posted:

Are you American by any chance? Or spent lots of time in America?

Ha no, not American. I spend quite a bit of time there. Most food there is terrible but I like a bit of St Louis / whatever bbq.

knox_harrington
Feb 18, 2011

Running no point.

Pochoclo posted:

You must have gone to a lovely place. Next time you go there shoot me a PM I'll give you a list of decent places. Also the best asado is the home-made one I'm afraid.

Or alternatively you're just being Pissflaps.

Pretty weird to attempt to dismiss all European cuisine on the basis of your home cooking.

knox_harrington
Feb 18, 2011

Running no point.

How much is the UK contribution to the EU budget? Think it's 9bn/year. The claim of a 100bn settlement is pretty extreme.

The entire EC budget is only 140bn a year. Very difficult for Juncker to justify those figures.

knox_harrington
Feb 18, 2011

Running no point.

Ewan posted:

https://www.theguardian.com/inequality/2017/may/03/how-do-britains-highest-earners-feel-about-their-income

“Due to the vast absolute difference among the 1%, top income earners experience ‘relative disadvantage’,” the report, A Relational Analysis of Top Incomes and Wealth, states. “They are disadvantaged compared to others at the top, while being aware of their advantage compared to the general population.”

A senior investment banker, who earns hundreds of thousands of pounds a year, said he “just doesn’t feel particularly wealthy” compared with other parents at his children’s private school who, he said, were sitting on £100m-plus family fortunes.

“I feel like I’m fairly well off and I earn multiples of the hundred thousands,” the banker told a researcher from the LSE’s International Inequalities Institute. “But I feel very poor in the context of the classmates [of my children] ... Their parents can spend a lot more time with them, because none of them really work, or some of them work but it’s working on their own terms: they might run a hedge fund but they can take the kids to school.

The unnamed investment banker said earning a few hundred thousand “does not feel that great”.

The investment banker said £100m was a lot of money – but “not a ridiculous amount of money”. He told the researcher he was “fairly confident” that a driven and passionate individual could “start from zero and get to £100m within 20 years”.


Boohoo the poor 1% and their relative disadvantage

Terrible. I guess that this group would necessarily select incredibly greedy people. I'm surprised that top 1% is only £140,000 though, my recollection was that it was higher than that.

JFairfax posted:

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-35943216

Gross payment of about £18bn in 2015, if it's a five year budget that we've agreed to you're up to nearly £100bn gross quickly.

I can't work out whether I think this should be calculated on gross or net payments, it would be ridiculous to expect the calculation not to take the rebate etc into account but I can see why they would ignore that to jack the figures up.

e: gently caress, something insightful in a Guardian comment, who knew:
"It is a basic tenet of Conservatism that poor people only work harder if they are given less money, but rich people only work harder if they are given more money."

knox_harrington fucked around with this message at 16:06 on May 3, 2017

knox_harrington
Feb 18, 2011

Running no point.

mediadave posted:

In which case, i expect the large majority of Labour MPs to jump to the Co-Operative party or whatever. I honestly don't know who would want to stick around for whatever Corbyn and McDonnel have planned.

I don't know how candidate selection works, can they just decide to be in a different party just before the election?

knox_harrington
Feb 18, 2011

Running no point.

Viscount offered £5k for Brexit campaigner Gina Miller to be run over, court hears

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/02/viscount-offered-5k-brexit-campaigner-gina-miller-run-facebook/amp/

knox_harrington
Feb 18, 2011

Running no point.

Skinty McEdger posted:

It's hard to say that anyone with a less than 10,000 seat majority is safe, but Lewis remains popular locally, has been involved in the local campaign and has good visibility and saw all of the local council seats in his seat get returned comfortably for labour. There's people with larger majorities than him in 2015 that I think are in a lot more danger.

I wonder how the MP for Islington North is going to fare.

knox_harrington
Feb 18, 2011

Running no point.

Darth Walrus posted:

Yeah, there's two ways ex-soldiers can go - authoritarian hard-right lunatic or pacifist, socially-conscious lefty. He seems to be the latter variety.

Yes yes, only two possible outcomes.

knox_harrington
Feb 18, 2011

Running no point.

Tortuga posted:

Apparently he was TA not regular. ie a big fat goony COD fan who just wanted to shoot muslims on the weekend, and not a proper hard army man.

Mmm keep going I'm almost there

knox_harrington
Feb 18, 2011

Running no point.

The fault isn't just Corbyn's, it's the fault of the people and unions who voted him into leadership and continued to support him despite his clear unsuitability.

knox_harrington
Feb 18, 2011

Running no point.

John McDonnell gets bigger Labour role after local election failures

https://amp.theguardian.com/politics/2017/may/05/john-mcdonnell-gets-bigger-labour-role-after-local-election-failures

Time to double down! Fuuuck

knox_harrington
Feb 18, 2011

Running no point.

and i must meme posted:

who are the people who want to privatise the BBC? why?

Surprisingly high. TBH I can't see the point in renationalising the Royal Mail, though maybe it would ensure people living in really remote bits of the UK continue to get deliveries? Otherwise seems like an obsolescent service.

knox_harrington
Feb 18, 2011

Running no point.

jabby posted:

Polling is a snapshot and his approval is still increasing. All I'm saying so far is that his exposure has made him a lot more popular than he was, which is the opposite of what his opponents claimed would happen. Maybe it would be higher if he weren't starting from an artificially low base having had his own party briefing against him for two years.

Latest poll has Labour slipping back, with conservatives at +12, your "approval still increasing" is probably just noise.

https://britainelects.com/polling/westminster/

knox_harrington
Feb 18, 2011

Running no point.

Spangly A posted:

The only way that's a bad thing to say is if you possess a warped and dangerous view of history

It's not a great thing for someone attempting to lead the british state to have said.

knox_harrington
Feb 18, 2011

Running no point.

forkboy84 posted:

If you were any denser I'd be afraid you were a neutron star.


You're treating a complex issue in a child-like manner, where everything is black & white, either or. It's not. In the real world issues can be complex and simply saying A GOOD B BAD is entirely unhelpful. You can agree with someone's aims while disagreeing their method of getting there, and you can hope to convince them of the validity of your argument by discussing it with them. Supporting Irish reunification and supporting the IRA & their campaign of terrorism are not the same thing. Engaging in debate with you does not mean I agree with the drivel you are spouting.

Ironic given UKMT usually reacts to differing views by telling the poster to gently caress off.

Corbyn's actions were pretty bad and will continue to damage him in the polls.

knox_harrington
Feb 18, 2011

Running no point.


May is such a horrific public speaker.

knox_harrington
Feb 18, 2011

Running no point.

Terrible posting ITT even by usual standards. Anyway Katie Hopkins has been reported to the police for calling for genocide.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...750656.html?amp

knox_harrington
Feb 18, 2011

Running no point.

Kokoro Wish posted:

Just had an Iranian staying with us as a border and the way he talked about his country, it's fairly moderate, largely secular and the education system is pretty good. He's kind of terrified about America trying to gently caress around with them though.

This was also what I heard from an Iranian woman I was dating, though I have difficulty squaring this with Iran holding public executions and having religious police.

knox_harrington
Feb 18, 2011

Running no point.

kustomkarkommando posted:

Why would I need Gregg's when I can walk down to my local bakery and order a sausage roll bap

Is that actually a sausage roll in a bread roll?? I would like to see a photo if possible.

knox_harrington
Feb 18, 2011

Running no point.


Extraordinary

knox_harrington
Feb 18, 2011

Running no point.

jabby posted:

Odds on Jeremy Corbyn from the main betting sites, which were improving yesterday, are now getting worse. Odds on Theresa May are improving. But thank God campaigning is going to remain suspended for a week so nobody can take advantage of this tragedy.

It would be interesting to see how accurate peer to peer betting is, as people are stumping up the cash.

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics

knox_harrington
Feb 18, 2011

Running no point.

Lightning Lord posted:

Am I right in remembering they didn't even do anything approaching this crazy poo poo in response to the 2005 tube attacks?

Before my time but I don't think there was a framework for military support of mainland police operations in place until after then.

knox_harrington
Feb 18, 2011

Running no point.

feedmegin posted:

I mean, to be fair the IRA did mortar airports and stuff back in the day, if I recall. Tanks aren't necessarily overkill against a group that literally had stuff like surface-to-air missiles in their shooty collection.

(Also, wasn't it Scorpions? As opposed to, y'know, a proper tank-tank ie Challengers)

Scimitar but yes you are right. Not much use even against the hypothetical T-55 mentioned earlier.

I also share the concerns about infantry tactics not being suitable for police work, though I imagine the people being deployed are specifically trained. I've done riot control as part of urban training.

knox_harrington
Feb 18, 2011

Running no point.


I had a Labour leaflet through my door yesterday, the sneaky devils.

knox_harrington
Feb 18, 2011

Running no point.

Regarde Aduck posted:

That was one guy. Who said sorry about a minute later. So yes I do remember. And I don't think people not wanting it to be a terrorist attack is particularly damning.

It was multiple people, and it was really weird. Also the immediate jump to "..but this will be bad for Jeremy's campaign!" was pretty distasteful.

knox_harrington
Feb 18, 2011

Running no point.

LemonDrizzle posted:

Quite the opposite, surely - if you have strong reason to suspect that there may be a bomb-making facility in an area (especially one manufacturing acetone peroxide, which has a bad tendency to detonate at a time of its own choosing), it seems like it'd be pretty irresponsible to just let people come and go as they please until you've either secured the facility or confirmed that the suspicion was groundless.

On top of that if there's a likelihood they're going to end up shooting someone a few hundred metres seems like a reasonable exclusion boundary.

knox_harrington
Feb 18, 2011

Running no point.

MrL_JaKiri posted:

I'm 33, and yeah I'm fairly over-qualified (four degrees, two each in maths (specialising in statistics/stochastics) and physics (specialising in nuclear and particle physics, including nuclear power engineering in particular, and as an aside my masters project was on dye sensitized solar cells). I also spent some time as an industrial scientist but am currently back in my ivory tower.

How do you get to the point where you need 4? I guess 3 sounds reasonable if you do bachelors / masters / PhD - did you then do another just for fun? (I can't really talk having 3 myself, just interested)

also for people sitting in the dark Ikea sell LED bulbs for £1 each.

knox_harrington
Feb 18, 2011

Running no point.

Oberleutnant posted:

Bodyweight exercises are where it's at, my dude.

This is why you're not very good at fighting Nazis.

knox_harrington
Feb 18, 2011

Running no point.

DesperateDan posted:

if the tories consider may getting heckled and openly laughed at a "victory" then lol

All she has to do is squirm through these non-debates. I think pretty much all projections still show the conservatives gaining seats, and she will have a manifesto to implement so despite being terrible in public a win is unfortunately still a win.

knox_harrington
Feb 18, 2011

Running no point.

Lord of the Llamas posted:

Also, the sample size was 515 so this isn't even a statistically significant shift. I'd also question how easy it really is to get a "representative sample" of such a niche group that accounts for under 0.005% of the UK population. It seems to me that most of the attempts to smear Labour as antisemitic are targeted at middle class white people and not British Jews.

You're right but by my calcs if it was 13.4% it would be a significant change.

MrL_JaKiri posted:

If you have a completely random sample

^provided this is true.

https://twitter.com/theJeremyVine/status/869452084567060480

knox_harrington
Feb 18, 2011

Running no point.

Lord of the Llamas posted:

I never said a sample size of 500 was "bad", I just said it meant that there isn't a statistically significant shift in the Labour support according to the 2015 and 2017 results.

And that's assuming:


Which I think is a dubious assumption. Pollsters find it incredibly hard to correctly weight their polls for the UK national population despite having reams of demographic data and past polls and elections to base it on.

The main takeaway people should have here is that the binomial confidence intervals are the perfect case scenario in terms of accuracy and in practice underestimate the real margin of error.

It was you that brought up statistical significance (and I misread the tweet which did in fact say 13%). I haven't seen anyone suggest that individual polls are seriously meaningful.

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knox_harrington
Feb 18, 2011

Running no point.

Oberleutnant posted:

I'm starting to get really interested in Theresa May's future as PM. Assuming she squeaks through the GE with a lower-than-hoped-for majority the entire gambit is going to look like a gigantic fuckup on her part. Her credibility on a personal level has already been shot to poo poo in the last couple of weeks, and in the futue we've got the Brexit negotiations, which aren't going to go well at all.

Will her backbenchers be prepared to leave her in place until 2021 or 2022?
Will May be prepared to resign if the knives come out, or will she force her backbenchers to torpedo the entire government and possibly force another GE in a year or two?

I just can't see her surviving as PM unless she somehow pulls a gigantic majority out of this GE.

A friend who works at the Home Office was saying yesterday that the general feeling there is she weathered the poison chalice of that job pretty well. I personally disagree with pretty much everything she did there but I suspect there is better support behind the scenes than you would expect given her awful ability to interact with the public.

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