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Who should go #1 overall?
This poll is closed.
Nolan Patrick 7 12.50%
Nico Hischier 8 14.29%
Someone Else 2 3.57%
Edmonton Oilers 39 69.64%
Total: 56 votes
[Edit Poll (moderators only)]

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Nissin Cup Nudist
Sep 3, 2011





Who What When Where Why How?

The 2017 NHL Draft is time time of year when all 31 NHL teams (Welcome Vegas) select babyfaced players to project their hopes and dreams on, only to watch them bust out in a few years. This year, the draft is held in Chicago, home of The Club That Saved HockeyTM, on June 23-24.

Alright, so who's eligible for this shinding?

wikipedia posted:

Ice hockey players born between January 1, 1997, and September 15, 1999, are eligible for selection in the 2017 NHL Entry Draft. Additionally, un-drafted, non-North American players born in 1996 are eligible for the draft; and those players who were drafted in the 2015 NHL Entry Draft, but not signed by an NHL team and who were born after June 30, 1997, are also eligible to re-enter the draft.


So who's #1?

Good news. There are two (2) players in contention for this year's #1 overall pick. They are the year-long presumptive favorite, Nolan Patrick, and Nico Hischier, the rookie who played his way into consideration with a very good season. (and some Patrick injuries). Let's meet them


Nolan Patrick – 6'3”, 200 lb, C, Brandon (WHL) 33 GP, 20/26/46

Future Considerations posted:

"A lethal combo of size, speed and skill; plays a power game and possesses one of the most well-rounded skill sets in the CHL…has great wheels and is able to surprise with his speed…hands and ability to protect the puck is high end…plays very responsibly with the puck, but also makes something happen each time he possesses it…uses his strength and reach to guard the puck, driving his way around the offensive zone…a heads-up, confident passer…has a sharp release on his wrist shot and is capable of beating a goaltender from anywhere in the offensive zone."

Patrick also had to deal with a busted collarbone and a sports hernia and was out of commission most of the year. Despite his injuries, he is still a top talent and put up 41/61/102 in 71 GP during the 2015-16 season.



Nico Hischier – 6'0”, 172 lb, C/RW, Halifax (QMJHL), 57 GP, 38/48/86

Future Considerations posted:

"A smooth-skating, playmaking center…good skating agility and top speed, but is more quick than fast…is able to make quick turns and displays good lateral movement…not big or strong, but still shows willingness to take hits and battle for space…goes into board battles and uses his body to fight for pucks…excellent playmaking instincts, vision and passing skills…puts puck where his linemates can best utilize the chance…an incredible stickhandler who thrives in possession and can make defenders look foolish"

The new kid on the block, Hischier came to North America from Switzerland, and lit up the Q in his first and only year. (Not that says much) More notably, he dominated up the World Juniors and almost single-handily beat the USA. That tournament put him on the map and got the scouts attention. Also dealt with injuries, but not on Patrick's level. Both players will be real good. Probably


Which (un)fortunate teams gets to draft these young men?

The New Jersey Devils will be the first team on the clock due to some fortunate ping-pong ball bounces. Originally scheduled to pick 5th, they jumped four (4) spots and an 8.5% chance to win the top pick. They are joined by the Philadelphia Flyers picking 2nd, who jumped eleven! (11) spots, and the Dallas Stars, who jumped five (5) spots to pick 3rd. This means the actual worst team, the 48 points Colorado Avalanche will pick 4th and the expansion Vegas Golden Knights will pick 6th. The lottery sure is something.




Who else is good?



Courtesy Canucks Army, these rankings are from the end of March

Players of note:

Timothy Liljegren - Was supposed to challenge Patrick for #1 overall until he caught mono and missed most of the season. Will challenge for first D off the board
Callan Foote - Son of long-time NHLer Adam Footer. Plays a lot like his dad, but faster and quicker
Klim Klosten - Maybe the best pure goal scorer of this class. Is

Anything else I should know?

This is considered a weak draft compared to years past. If Patrick was in last years draft, he probably would have gone around #5 overall. He is still a good player, just not an elite offensive talent like McDavid, Eichel, or Matthews. Think Towes-lite. Despite the lack of elite top-end offensive talent seen in the last couple years, there are still some good players and value to be had. Klim Klostin is maybe the best pure goal scorer in the draft, but will be available until 12 or so due to injuries and . The best goalie is Jake Oetinger and he was lights out in the two games I watched of his. Teams will still get good players. Especially the Flyers. Because Ron Hextall is a goon and totally did not threaten to break Bettman's legs for the #2 pick.


Philly should always host the draft. https://www.instagram.com/p/pw9p34EbfZ/


Happy Drafting

Nissin Cup Nudist fucked around with this message at May 10, 2017 around 04:56

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Nissin Cup Nudist
Sep 3, 2011


I would now like to use this space to talk about my favorite prospect, Denis Smirnov. Denis Smirnov is a 5'9” LW and played the 2016-17 NCAA season as a 19 year old. He scored 47 points in 39 games. This makes him the highest scoring freshman last season. He scored more points than noted 1st round picks Clayton Keller (45), Henrik Borgstrom (43), Luke Kunin (38), Trent Frederic (33), etc, etc. Denis Smirnov is very good at hockey. He went undrafted the last two years and should hopefully find a home this year. Despite being a D+2 overager, he is still young enough (19) to torch the NCAA because he is that good and not because he's older/faster/stronger than the rest of the competition. He found his spot in a tougher league and kicked his game up a notch or two. Why yes, I'm a Penn St homer, why do you ask? Have some highlights.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7PdWJ79jiAg

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tcdZsxutiZs

https://twitter.com/NCAAIceHockey/s...770541101408256

https://twitter.com/NCAAIceHockey/s...137151779717122

https://twitter.com/PennStateMHKY/s...136979561598976

Yaya
Nov 14, 2012

vancloober cablucks

Kailer Yamamoto is probably gonna be the steal of the draft at 23rd or some poo poo because teams are really bad at drafting skilled young forwards.

Also just to get it out of the way, gently caress the Edmonton Oilers for stinking up the draft lottery so bad they ruined it just in time for my team to be terrible and need the lottery.

ThinkTank
Oct 23, 2007

Please tell me I'm worthy to launder your sweaty jock Mr. Edwards!

Jason Robertson continues to be hideously under appreciated.

Also this would've been a very sensible year for the Canucks to go D with a top five pick. There are a bunch of decent defencemen available, and the forwards are of the meh variety. Instead Benning insisted on doing that last year when the opposite was true and now has to either once again delay drafting a centre and take a defenceman at 5th for the second straight year or reach for an underwhelming centre.

You know he'll reach.

corn on the cop
Oct 12, 2012

"I can't wait for the crowd, the noise, the energy in the building. I can't wait to take that all away from them."


ThinkTank posted:

Jason Robertson continues to be hideously under appreciated.

Also this would've been a very sensible year for the Canucks to go D with a top five pick. There are a bunch of decent defencemen available, and the forwards are of the meh variety. Instead Benning insisted on doing that last year when the opposite was true and now has to either once again delay drafting a centre and take a defenceman at 5th for the second straight year or reach for an underwhelming centre.

You know he'll reach.



right in the canucks wheelhouse

T-Bone
Sep 14, 2004



I think it's suspect at best to rate guys like Puljujarvi, Dubois, and Juolevi over Hischier or Patrick. Clearly neither is Matthews/Laine level but they're in the next tier.

ThinkTank
Oct 23, 2007

Please tell me I'm worthy to launder your sweaty jock Mr. Edwards!

corn on the cop posted:

right in the canucks wheelhouse

Riiiight in the wheelhouse.

Now Benning's pointing to the ground.
Is he indicating a bunt? Yes, he's bunting.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7bvdGPiORE8

Season 10 I know, but it had its moments

Hand Knit
Oct 24, 2005

Beer Loses more than a game Sunday ...
We lost our Captain, our Teammate, our Friend Kelly Calabro...
Rest in Peace my friend you will be greatly missed..

T-Bone posted:

I think it's suspect at best to rate guys like Puljujarvi, Dubois, and Juolevi over Hischier or Patrick. Clearly neither is Matthews/Laine level but they're in the next tier.

I dunno how much it's changed, but a little while ago someone ran a pretty detailed comparison between Dubois and Patrick, and the verdict was that they were very close comparisons except Patrick was slightly worse and much more injured. Dubois was ranked 4th going into the draft last year, so "a slightly worse Dubois" lands fifth.

Hand Knit
Oct 24, 2005

Beer Loses more than a game Sunday ...
We lost our Captain, our Teammate, our Friend Kelly Calabro...
Rest in Peace my friend you will be greatly missed..

I wanna add that after the Leafs decided to theme last year's draft on "large overagers," I'm not all too enthusiastic with what they'll do with their draft this year. At least they've been reliably good with their first pick, even during the dark years (except for Biggs gently caress that).

ThinkTank
Oct 23, 2007

Please tell me I'm worthy to launder your sweaty jock Mr. Edwards!

Hand Knit posted:

I wanna add that after the Leafs decided to theme last year's draft on "large overagers," I'm not all too enthusiastic with what they'll do with their draft this year. At least they've been reliably good with their first pick, even during the dark years (except for Biggs gently caress that).

With 11 picks and a prospect pool that deep you can start taking some risks. There's a bunch of evidence coming out now that says that second and third entry players that excel a bit later in junior leagues are dangerously undervalued. So much so that you saw a 2nd year eligible player go in the first round last year, and welp that Borgstrom pick is looking pretty astute by Florida right now.

With that said, the Leafs made some puzzling selections.

Nissin Cup Nudist
Sep 3, 2011


Speaking of overagers, Morgan Geekie is probably the best one and could pull a Borgstrom and go late first. He went from 25 points in 66 games to 90 in 72. In a nominally weak draft, all it takes is one team to like a guy.

I think overagers are less of a concern if a player goes the NCAA route. Borgstrom, Smirnov, etc are all "overagers" yet still young for the NCAA curve and still put of a lot of points regardless.

Stiev Awt
Mar 20, 2007



So Yamamoto or Klosten would help help with the Habs' scoring drought. But are either of them Character Guys?

yellowcar
Feb 14, 2010

~~ smooches ~~


Stiev Awt posted:

So Yamamoto or Klosten would help help with the Habs' scoring drought. But are either of them Character Guys?

One of them is small and the other is Russian. The outlook is grim.

Mike_V
Jul 31, 2004

Let's* go Blackhawks! The Blues and Red Wings suck.

I just want the Blues to use at least one of their 1st round picks on a highly skilled center, even if he's undersized

Nissin Cup Nudist
Sep 3, 2011


Craig Button posted his mock draft. He has Nico going #1

http://www.tsn.ca/nolan-or-nico-but...t-mock-1.750199

Top 5 picks posted:

1. New Jersey Devils: Nico Hischier, C, Halifax (QMJHL) A smart, highly skilled centre who is complimented by 2016 first-round pick Michael McLeod.
HT: 6-0-3/4 WT: 176 S: L
GP: 57 G: 38 P: 86 PIM: 24

2. Philadelphia Flyers: Nolan Patrick, C, Brandon (WHL) The Flyers are loaded on the blueline and get a well-rounded centre.
HT: 6-2-3/4 WT: 198 S: R
GP: 33 G: 20 P: 46 PIM: 36

3. Dallas Stars: Miro Heiskanen, D, HIFK (SM Liiga) A highly intelligent and excellent skater who projects as a top-pair defenceman.
HT: 6-0 WT: 170 S: L
GP: 37 G: 5 P: 10 PIM: 4

4. Colorado Avalanche: Gabe Vilardi, C, Windsor (OHL) His offensive skill, combined with size and ability, make him a difficult player to defend against.
HT: 6-3 WT: 201 S: R
GP: 49 G: 29 P: 61 PIM: 12

5. Vancouver Canucks: Cody Glass, C/RW, Portland (WHL) The development of his game is reminiscent of Mark Scheifele at the same stage. Would make a nice duo with Bo Horvat.
HT: 6-1-3/4 WT: 180 S: R
GP: 69 G: 32 P: 94 PIM: 36

Stretch Marx
Apr 29, 2008

I'm ok with this.

One Kailer Yamamoto please. I'd be okay with a Callan Foote if Yamamoto goes before the Leafs get a try.

corn on the cop
Oct 12, 2012

"I can't wait for the crowd, the noise, the energy in the building. I can't wait to take that all away from them."


Give me the beautiful Swiss boy.

a false
Mar 5, 2009



i hope yamamoto falls to the rangers and they pick him

a false
Mar 5, 2009



i'd also like it if we traded up to get liljegren

Duckman2008
Jan 6, 2010

Don't you know there ain't no devil, its just God when he's drunk.


Flyers win either way. I will gladly take Nolan.

Stretch Marx
Apr 29, 2008

I'm ok with this.

Seriously how is Yamamoto so undervalued? If the Leafs get him to replace Hyman on Matthews's wing, Jesus Christ.

a false
Mar 5, 2009



timmins and hague seem to be popular picks for the rangers in mock drafts. i like timmins, hague i'm not too sure about. his skating seems sort of suspect to me.

Nissin Cup Nudist
Sep 3, 2011


Stretch Marx posted:

Seriously how is Yamamoto so undervalued? If the Leafs get him to replace Hyman on Matthews's wing, Jesus Christ.

He's small

That's it

Infidel Castro
Jun 8, 2010

HELLO MY BABY
HELLO MY HONEY
HELLO MY PERNELL-KARL
♪ ♩ ♪ ♩ ♩





Nissin Cup Nudist posted:

He's small

That's it

You would think the success of smaller guys like Gaudreau and Arvidsson would make scouts rethink this whole size thing but welp.

yellowcar
Feb 14, 2010

~~ smooches ~~


Stretch Marx posted:

Seriously how is Yamamoto so undervalued? If the Leafs get him to replace Hyman on Matthews's wing, Jesus Christ.

The same reason DeBrincat fell all the way to round 2.

corn on the cop
Oct 12, 2012

"I can't wait for the crowd, the noise, the energy in the building. I can't wait to take that all away from them."


DeBrincat has shown very little outside of the OHL. There's sufficient reason to be skeptical he'll translate his junior success to the NHL.

Short dudes tend to be overlooked () but it's not without good reason: many of them don't have the toolsets of a Johnny Gaudreau or Clayton Keller (who went 7th this past draft, mind you) to excel in the league.

This isn't the mid-90s anymore. Steve Sullivan was selected in the 9th round of his +1 year, despite being a PPG player in his draft year and scoring 113 points in his +1 year.

Teams have wisened up, but they're still (wisely) cautious.

corn on the cop fucked around with this message at May 14, 2017 around 03:27

corn on the cop
Oct 12, 2012

"I can't wait for the crowd, the noise, the energy in the building. I can't wait to take that all away from them."


Also, Kailer has a brother named Keanu. I don't know how you screw up an 80 name tool like Yamamoto but his parents managed to do so.

hifi
Jul 25, 2012


The Matrix would be a badass nickname though

yellowcar
Feb 14, 2010

~~ smooches ~~


hifi posted:

The Matrix would be a badass nickname though

Jonathan "Mech Assault" Marchessault is still the best one imo.

A Typical Goon
Feb 25, 2011

I'm not fat I'm big buffed


Nic Petan is an inch taller than Yamamoto, put up 120 points in 71 games in his draft year (Yamamoto put up 99 in 65 this year), isn't a late birthday and he only went 43rd overall in 2013, an actual good draft year.

4 years later he's done nothing at the NHL level. People in this thread overvalue decent years from short players

Jordan7hm
Feb 17, 2011

MENS REA? LOL MORE LIKE CHRIS REA AM I RITE

Lipstick Apathy

The red flag other than his size is definitely the late birthday. He's almost a year older than some of the other guys in the draft.

corn on the cop
Oct 12, 2012

"I can't wait for the crowd, the noise, the energy in the building. I can't wait to take that all away from them."


A Typical Goon posted:

Nic Petan is an inch taller than Yamamoto, put up 120 points in 71 games in his draft year (Yamamoto put up 99 in 65 this year), isn't a late birthday and he only went 43rd overall in 2013, an actual good draft year.

4 years later he's done nothing at the NHL level. People in this thread overvalue decent years from short players

Pretty much. For every Gaudreau or Keller there's about a dozen more Tedenby's and Grimaldi's.

Hand Knit
Oct 24, 2005

Beer Loses more than a game Sunday ...
We lost our Captain, our Teammate, our Friend Kelly Calabro...
Rest in Peace my friend you will be greatly missed..

corn on the cop posted:

Pretty much. For every Gaudreau or Keller there's about a dozen more Tedenby's and Grimaldi's.

I think it depends on where in which draft you're taking someone. Yamamoto, like Grimaldi, is in a pretty not good draft, so the decision on drafting him isn't so much "is he likely to succeed" as it is "every player at this level is some sort of gamble so you might as well aim for serious upside." Like, it's usually not the small guy who scores being weighed against the big guy who scores, but more often the small guy who scores being weighed against the big guy who doesn't score.

Stretch Marx
Apr 29, 2008

I'm ok with this.

A Typical Goon posted:

Nic Petan is an inch taller than Yamamoto, put up 120 points in 71 games in his draft year (Yamamoto put up 99 in 65 this year), isn't a late birthday and he only went 43rd overall in 2013, an actual good draft year.

4 years later he's done nothing at the NHL level. People in this thread overvalue decent years from short players

I think that's more of an argument that a player's ability to compete and succeed has less to do with their size and more to do with their individual skill level and a team's develop program. Petan had two back-to-back bonkers seasons then came back down to Earth when he was Captain. He was then immediately thrown into the Jets lineup without doing a stint in the AHL. I think Marner is an exception to the rule of Junior - ECHL/AHL - NHL because of his age situation that just happened to work out. It doesn't matter how tall/short you are if you suck in the AHL that's it. If Yamamoto didn't pan out, okay, so do a lot of picks.

But I don't see the harm in trying when you're picking 18th and we don't have to just throw the kid straight into the NHL either. I think the Marlies are a good enough organization that they could get him acquainted with a larger, more physical style of hockey before expecting him to deal with NHL level defencemen.

Ginette Reno
Nov 18, 2006

Hey, Sid. Is it normal for the inside of your bung-hole to itch?

Didn't some dude do a study and find that the Canucks would have been better off over a few years if they'd drafted purely by guys who scored lots of points versus whatever dumb strategy they actually did?

What I'm saying is small dudes who score points probably are worth the gamble

El Gallinero Gros
Mar 17, 2010


Ginette Reno posted:

Didn't some dude do a study and find that the Canucks would have been better off over a few years if they'd drafted purely by guys who scored lots of points versus whatever dumb strategy they actually did?

What I'm saying is small dudes who score points probably are worth the gamble

Especially in a draft that doesn't have much to offer.

Yaya
Nov 14, 2012

vancloober cablucks

Ginette Reno posted:

Didn't some dude do a study and find that the Canucks would have been better off over a few years if they'd drafted purely by guys who scored lots of points versus whatever dumb strategy they actually did?

What I'm saying is small dudes who score points probably are worth the gamble

https://canucksarmy.com/2014/5/20/w...outing-problem/

Canucksarmy is a good website and like, half of the people who've written for it are employed by the Florida Panthers now

ThinkTank
Oct 23, 2007

Please tell me I'm worthy to launder your sweaty jock Mr. Edwards!

corn on the cop posted:

Pretty much. For every Gaudreau or Keller there's about a dozen more Tedenby's and Grimaldi's.

Well yeah, but a mid first round pick has an approximately 60-70% chance of producing an NHL player of any sort regardless of height or weight. If you have two players scoring at comparable rates and one is 6'3" 220lbs and the other is 5'8" 150lbs, take the big guy every time. However, as Hand Knit said you're very rarely comparing two players with similar scoring rates. More often it's the below PPG guy with size versus the well above PPG guy who's a bit smaller.

I like to normalize scoring rates to see how players in the CHL actually stack up over the 72 games that the WHL plays (as compared to the 67 for the other leagues)

Adjusted to 72 games and modifying slightly for differences in league scoring you have the following two players ranked around the same place and play the same position (end of the first round and LW/RW):

Player 1: 72gp 47g 63a 110pts (involved in 46% of team's total offence)
Player 2: 72gp 30g 28a 58pts (involved in 28% of team's total offence)

Player two is half as effective in the CHL as player one. The difference between the two? Player 1 is 5'9" 160lbs (Kailer Yamamoto), the other is 6'6" 195lbs (Isaac Ratcliffe).

Ultimately the chances of success for both players are essentially identical. However, players almost never exceed their PPG from junior in the NHL. It's not like the concept of "low ceiling/high floor" holds any weight, bigger players still fail to make the NHL just as frequently as smaller guys. So who do you take? The guy who has a 70% chance of being a 3rd/4th line checker who might break out as a top six guy or the guy who has a 70% chance of being a 2nd/3rd line point getting forward who might break out as a top line forward? To me, the answer is obvious.

If you really need checkers, you can sign or trade for them a hell of a lot easier than you can for top six guys. The only time you should reach for the stars and hope that a player like Ratcliffe turns into a Lucic or Bertuzzi clone is if you have a really deep prospect pool already with a plethora of skilled forwards that will ultimately result in you being forced to trade one or two anyways, and even then it's a low percentage play.

ThinkTank fucked around with this message at May 15, 2017 around 13:38

corn on the cop
Oct 12, 2012

"I can't wait for the crowd, the noise, the energy in the building. I can't wait to take that all away from them."


Well yeah, in pretty much all cases I would favor the player with a proven track record of elite production at the lower levels.

I'm just saying that we have a tendency to feel like short players who post elite production are infallible when they often require very specific toolsets to excel in the bigs (which should be obvious ). I'm not saying to draft Michael Rasmussen top-10 because lmao why would you do that to yourself


I'll also concede that my point about height mainly applies to dudes who are like, 5'9" and below. I have no idea why guys like Beauvillier and Parise were mid-to-late firsts when they measure out to be 5'10" - 5'11".

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corn on the cop
Oct 12, 2012

"I can't wait for the crowd, the noise, the energy in the building. I can't wait to take that all away from them."


e: double post

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