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Who should go #1 overall?
This poll is closed.
Nolan Patrick 7 12.50%
Nico Hischier 8 14.29%
Someone Else 2 3.57%
Edmonton Oilers 39 69.64%
Total: 56 votes
[Edit Poll (moderators only)]

  • Locked thread
ThinkTank
Oct 23, 2007

Please tell me I'm worthy to launder your sweaty jock Mr. Edwards!

corn on the cop posted:


I'm just saying that we have a tendency to feel like short players who post elite production are infallible when they often require very specific toolsets to excel in the bigs (which should be obvious ).

God no, they're hardly infallible. There's a reason they're ranked as late first round picks. Yamamoto's Weight/Height ratio is a pretty poor 2.32 right now so you're looking at a player who probably needs to add 20-25 pounds of muscle at the bare minimum, and that's no small feat. With that said, people get blinded by height very easily and overlook a lot of flaws that they're quick to spot in smaller guys. My issue is just that height alone is largely irrelevant, top scorers are rarely huge averaging 6'1 202lbs.

Teams tend to project far too high in terms of weight for taller guys thanking that more is better, ignoring the fact that top scorers should sit around the 2.5-2.9 W/H ratio and there's an optimal weight for most players. What they're used to playing at should probably be used as a general starting point.

Take Ratcliffe as an example, he's 6'6" but only 195lbs which is a W/H ratio of 2.5 on par with players like Pastrnak and Kucherov. Give him a couple years of growth and he might add 20lbs? which would push him to 2.76 the same area as McDavid or Seguin. AKA, he's not likely to be a punishing power forward of any variety. Tall does not automatically mean strong or go hand in hand with a bullish playstyle. Hell, a taller guy who doesn't rely on strength is probably less useful because their centre of gravity is higher (but I have no evidence to back that up).

So what does that leave you with? A guy who's 6'6" sure, but unlikely to ever be an extremely physical player who's not really scoring at the junior level. That doesn't sound like an especially useful player to me. Certainly not worth passing up a guy who has at least already got the offensive side of things down pat.

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Verviticus
Mar 13, 2006

Security? Please escort the fan in section 106, row 16, seat 1 out of the building right now and bar him from coming here again!


botch seems to think bennings gonna go for glass, which is fine by me. ultimately i really wanted pettersson but glass will do just fine

a false
Mar 5, 2009



Verviticus posted:

botch seems to think bennings gonna go for glass, which is fine by me. ultimately i really wanted pettersson but glass will do just fine

it's benning so are you sure he's not actually talking about bringing tanner glass back to vancouver

Verviticus
Mar 13, 2006

Security? Please escort the fan in section 106, row 16, seat 1 out of the building right now and bar him from coming here again!


if theres one thing benning is good at doing, its telegraphing everything he does to the point where his predictability makes every terrible move boring

corn on the cop
Oct 12, 2012

"I can't wait for the crowd, the noise, the energy in the building. I can't wait to take that all away from them."


flashback time

ThinkTank
Oct 23, 2007

Please tell me I'm worthy to launder your sweaty jock Mr. Edwards!

corn on the cop posted:

flashback time



That's actually surprisingly... Good? Four of those guys turned into very effective members of the team at its height (Edler, Hansen, Raymond, Schneider), one was traded for table scraps but still became half decent NHLer (Grabner) and one died.

Patrick White was a giant bust and that was obvious the second he was drafted, but between 03 and 05 the Canucks had some decent drafts. That 07 draft... Well... The less said the better.

Simek

Jordan7hm
Feb 17, 2011

MENS REA? LOL MORE LIKE CHRIS REA AM I RITE

Lipstick Apathy

Yeah my reaction to that was that 5 of those players were effective NHLers. I bet that's far better than most teams.

e: HockeyFuture top 10 sens prospects in 2007:

Top 20 at a glance
1. (1) Josh Hennessy, C
2. (3) Nick Foligno, LW
3. (2) Brian Lee, D
4. (4) Igor Mirnov, C
5. (7) Ilya Zubov, C
6. (NR) Jim O’Brien, C
7. (6) Brian Elliott, G
8. (9) Kaspars Daugavins, LW
9. (5) Kirill Lyamin, D
10. (11) Alexander Nikulin, C
Read more at http://www.hockeysfuture.com/articl...ghRwHUeCMc4Q.99

El Gallinero Gros
Mar 17, 2010


ThinkTank posted:

That's actually surprisingly... Good? Four of those guys turned into very effective members of the team at its height (Edler, Hansen, Raymond, Schneider), one was traded for table scraps but still became half decent NHLer (Grabner) and one died.

Patrick White was a giant bust and that was obvious the second he was drafted, but between 03 and 05 the Canucks had some decent drafts. That 07 draft... Well... The less said the better.

Simek

Which of them died?

Jordan7hm
Feb 17, 2011

MENS REA? LOL MORE LIKE CHRIS REA AM I RITE

Lipstick Apathy

El Gallinero Gros posted:

Which of them died?

Bourdon

ThinkTank
Oct 23, 2007

Please tell me I'm worthy to launder your sweaty jock Mr. Edwards!

El Gallinero Gros posted:

Which of them died?

Luc Bourbon.

As the old SAS Wiki put it "Luc Bourdon was a Canucks prospect who thought he was stronger than a truck."

corn on the cop
Oct 12, 2012

"I can't wait for the crowd, the noise, the energy in the building. I can't wait to take that all away from them."


Jordan7hm posted:

Yeah my reaction to that was that 5 of those players were effective NHLers. I bet that's far better than most teams.

e: HockeyFuture top 10 sens prospects in 2007:

Top 20 at a glance
1. (1) Josh Hennessy, C
2. (3) Nick Foligno, LW
3. (2) Brian Lee, D
4. (4) Igor Mirnov, C
5. (7) Ilya Zubov, C
6. (NR) Jim O’Brien, C
7. (6) Brian Elliott, G
8. (9) Kaspars Daugavins, LW
9. (5) Kirill Lyamin, D
10. (11) Alexander Nikulin, C
Read more at http://www.hockeysfuture.com/articl...ghRwHUeCMc4Q.99



this looks like just about every HF devils prospect list from 2002 onwards. coincidentally, they were routinely ranked in the bottom-3 every year.

El Gallinero Gros
Mar 17, 2010


ThinkTank posted:

Luc Bourbon.

As the old SAS Wiki put it "Luc Bourdon was a Canucks prospect who thought he was stronger than a truck."

Read his Wikipedia entry, I feel like it might be a good idea to make banning Motorcycles a standard clause in contracts in pro sports.

GuavaMoment
Aug 13, 2006

YouTube dude


El Gallinero Gros posted:

Read his Wikipedia entry, I feel like it might be a good idea to make banning Motorcycles a standard clause in contracts in pro sports.

It was actually, I think.

Schremp Howard
Jul 18, 2010

What attitude problem?

Man, just going to your team's page on hockeysfuture and then going to the earliest articles is amazing. Who will lead the Penguins of the future, will it be Aleksey Morozov, Milan Kraft, or Robert Dome?

Thufir
May 19, 2004

"The fucking Mayans were right."

Schremp Howard posted:

Man, just going to your team's page on hockeysfuture and then going to the earliest articles is amazing. Who will lead the Penguins of the future, will it be Aleksey Morozov, Milan Kraft, or Robert Dome?

http://www.hockeysfuture.com/articl..._david_legwand/

ThinkTank
Oct 23, 2007

Please tell me I'm worthy to launder your sweaty jock Mr. Edwards!

Schremp Howard posted:

Man, just going to your team's page on hockeysfuture and then going to the earliest articles is amazing. Who will lead the Penguins of the future, will it be Aleksey Morozov, Milan Kraft, or Robert Dome?

Before they gassed their archives you could read HFboard threads dating back to 2002 (I think). I spent a delightful afternoon reading an entire thread about how Miroslav Satan was the untouchable young star of the Buffalo Sabres and how he and Taylor Pyatt were gonna the power line of the future.

El Gallinero Gros
Mar 17, 2010


ThinkTank posted:

Before they gassed their archives you could read HFboard threads dating back to 2002 (I think). I spent a delightful afternoon reading an entire thread about how Miroslav Satan was the untouchable young star of the Buffalo Sabres and how he and Taylor Pyatt were gonna the power line of the future.

It makes me sad Miroslav never wore #66. He did score 224 goals in 8 years with Buffalo.


I mean, HFBoards also think Tom Barrasso is more HOF worthy than Kiprusoff. Which I cannot agree with. I know Tom had more wins and cups than Mikka, but he played for an insanely stacked team and had a worse GAA and SV Pct.

El Gallinero Gros fucked around with this message at May 18, 2017 around 15:32

corn on the cop
Oct 12, 2012

"I can't wait for the crowd, the noise, the energy in the building. I can't wait to take that all away from them."



quote:

He looked more Sergei Fedorov or Alexander Mogilny skating the ice and not knowing what to do with the great skills he possesses unlike the Mike Modano he is usually compared to.

Spring Break My Heart
Feb 15, 2012


El Gallinero Gros posted:

It makes me sad Miroslav never wore #66. He did score 224 goals in 8 years with Buffalo.


I mean, HFBoards also think Tom Barrasso is more HOF worthy than Kiprusoff. Which I cannot agree with. I know Tom had more wins and cups than Mikka, but he played for an insanely stacked team and had a worse GAA and SV Pct.
For the same reason that it's dumb as hell to compare forwards stats between generations like that, using GAA and Sv% to compare a goalie who peaked in the 80's and 90's to a goalie who peaked in the 2000's is ridiculous. Barrasso was a top goalie in Buffalo before he went to Pittsburgh and Pittsburgh was not a good team when he got there or for most of his seasons there.

Verviticus
Mar 13, 2006

Security? Please escort the fan in section 106, row 16, seat 1 out of the building right now and bar him from coming here again!



"This allows youngsters Kimmo Timmonen, Karlis Skrastins..."

corn on the cop
Oct 12, 2012

"I can't wait for the crowd, the noise, the energy in the building. I can't wait to take that all away from them."


Corey Pronman's Final Top 31 is up. He considers the first 5 their own tier, with the second tier dropping off after 14:

1) Nico Hischier
2) Nolan Patrick
3) Gabriel Vilardi
4) Cody Glass
5) Nick Suzuki
6) Owen Tippett
7) Eeli Tolvanen
8) Miro Heiskanen
9) Klim Kostin
10) Kristin Vesalainen
11) Erik Brannstrom
12) Casey Mittlestadt
13) Timothy Liljegren
14) Kailer Yamamoto
15) Lias Andersson
16) Martin Necas
17) Elias Pettersson
18) Michael Rasmussen
19) Cale Makar
20) Robert Thomas
21) Henri Jokiharu
22) Ivan Lodnia
23) Jusso Valimaki
24) Jason Robertson
25) Joni Ikonen
26) Callan Foote
27) Aleksi Heponiemi
28) Ryan Poehling
29) Grant Mismash
30) David Farrance
31) Markus Phillips

Nissin Cup Nudist
Sep 3, 2011


Thats the highest I have seen Suzuki ranked. And most likely the lowest for Necas and Pettersson. And Mittlestadt.

And I have no idea who his 10/11 guys are at all

ThinkTank
Oct 23, 2007

Please tell me I'm worthy to launder your sweaty jock Mr. Edwards!

I'd be more than happy with Glass, Suzuki or Vilardi (in that order - I'm not so high on Vilardi). I'm glad Pronman put Suzuki so high, he scored at basically an identical rate to Hischier and Patrick this year.

corn on the cop
Oct 12, 2012

"I can't wait for the crowd, the noise, the energy in the building. I can't wait to take that all away from them."


He was also very complimentary of Jason Robertson's game, but thinks very low of his skating ability.

ThinkTank
Oct 23, 2007

Please tell me I'm worthy to launder your sweaty jock Mr. Edwards!

corn on the cop posted:

He was also very complimentary of Jason Robertson's game. Considers his skating a major red flag.

It's his biggest drawback sure, but I think the rate at which he scores on a very poor team is enough for someone to take a risk on him. Then again, he's a power winger and none of them skate particularly well. I don't see any major stride deficiencies when I watch him, he's just clunky. Have a power skating coach bust his rear end for a couple summers and he'll be fine. He's already got the knack for knowing when he step into holes or drive the net that all power forwards need, the rest can be worked on. He's not a sure thing, but he's a lot closer to being a decent 1st/2nd line winger than a good portion of the players ranked above him.

teamjack
Mar 31, 2010

Only Judy can judge me.
WWJD.


Nissin Cup Nudist posted:

Thats the highest I have seen Suzuki ranked. And most likely the lowest for Necas and Pettersson. And Mittlestadt.

And I have no idea who his 10/11 guys are at all

Pension Plan Puppets had a pretty good piece on Brannstrom.

http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2...brannstrom-2017

pseudodragon
Jun 16, 2007


Nissin Cup Nudist posted:

Thats the highest I have seen Suzuki ranked. And most likely the lowest for Necas and Pettersson. And Mittlestadt.

And I have no idea who his 10/11 guys are at all

Both those guys are usually in the 15-25 range.

Brannstrom is this year's tiny dude that would be a top 5 pick with 2 more inches, but might fall. Offensive D man with crazy skills. Most places I've seen him grouped with Hague/Foote/Valimaki/Timmins as second tier D with him as the most high ceiling option. Basically the Pronmanest pick.

Vesalainen is a big, fast winger who's consistently ranked 15-20. 6'3 dude with raw skills that struggled in the top pro leagues but was the MVP of the U18 championships. Again fits the Pronman style of speed and pure skill potential over everything else.

teamjack posted:

Pension Plan Puppets had a pretty good piece on Brannstrom.

http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2...brannstrom-2017

They just did Vesalainen as well.
http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2...u-18-tournament

Jordan7hm
Feb 17, 2011

MENS REA? LOL MORE LIKE CHRIS REA AM I RITE

Lipstick Apathy

Pronmann has Suzuki so high because of his scoring numbers when you take birth date into account. That's his current thing.

a false
Mar 5, 2009



don't really get his being down on timmins, although i get why he's not big on hague

Verviticus
Mar 13, 2006

Security? Please escort the fan in section 106, row 16, seat 1 out of the building right now and bar him from coming here again!


ThinkTank posted:

I'd be more than happy with Glass, Suzuki or Vilardi (in that order - I'm not so high on Vilardi). I'm glad Pronman put Suzuki so high, he scored at basically an identical rate to Hischier and Patrick this year.

i wonder why hes so down on pettersson

corn on the cop
Oct 12, 2012

"I can't wait for the crowd, the noise, the energy in the building. I can't wait to take that all away from them."


Verviticus posted:

i wonder why hes so down on pettersson

Seems to like his overall skill level, but is down on his skating, tiny frame, and his willingness to compete in puck battles. Also admits he might be a tad biased because he's never seen a dominant performance from him, but those that watch him more carefully swear by his talent.

corn on the cop fucked around with this message at May 20, 2017 around 00:09

ThinkTank
Oct 23, 2007

Please tell me I'm worthy to launder your sweaty jock Mr. Edwards!

Verviticus posted:

i wonder why hes so down on pettersson

I think it's wise to be cautious of players playing at a lower level than the rest of their peers. It's the same reason I'm not sole on Cale Makar. It's really easy to look great and get tons of ice time and primo opportunities when you're head and shoulders above your teammates. They're a worthwhile gamble for a team who can risk a potential bust, but the Canucks can't afford to miss on this pick. Not again.

A Typical Goon
Feb 25, 2011

I'm not fat I'm big buffed


ThinkTank posted:

I think it's wise to be cautious of players playing at a lower level than the rest of their peers. It's the same reason I'm not sole on Cale Makar. It's really easy to look great and get tons of ice time and primo opportunities when you're head and shoulders above your teammates. They're a worthwhile gamble for a team who can risk a potential bust, but the Canucks can't afford to miss on this pick. Not again.

Patterson plays on Allsvenskan, the Swedish U20 league...he's playing at the same level as his peers in the draft.

He had basically the exact PPG as Jonathan Dahlin, who is a year younger and apparently a hot prospect for the Nucks. They even played on the same team

A Typical Goon fucked around with this message at May 20, 2017 around 19:42

ThinkTank
Oct 23, 2007

Please tell me I'm worthy to launder your sweaty jock Mr. Edwards!

A Typical Goon posted:

Patterson plays on Allsvenskan, the Swedish U20 league...he's playing at the same level as his peers in the draft.

He had basically the exact PPG as Jonathan Dahlin, who is a year younger and apparently a hot prospect for the Nucks. They even played on the same team

It's not a junior league, it's their second tier so vaguely comparable to their AHL. I like Dahlen as a prospect but 1) he was not a 5th overall pick 2) he still has a lot to prove.

There are a bunch of youngsters that have put up good numbers in the Allsvenskan and gone nowhere. For every Filip Forsberg to come out of it there's a Fabian Brunnstrom.

Petersson could well turn out to be a top quality NHLer, but it's hard to say from the stats and the Canucks specifically can't afford to mess this pick up. They need a hit, so taking a CHLer with a long track record of statistical analysis to back it up is their best bet.

Duckman2008
Jan 6, 2010

Don't you know there ain't no devil, its just God when he's drunk.


Hey Flyers people, so it looks like Nolan Patrick is favored to be picked 2nd by the Flyers. Is he slated to be playable in the upcoming season (as in, should hold his own)?

A Typical Goon
Feb 25, 2011

I'm not fat I'm big buffed


Yeah Pettersson would probably be a bad pick for the Canucks but my wish list for the Jets at 13 is him or Makar/Liljegren

mentholmoose
Nov 4, 2009

YKNOW THERES ONLY ONE DIRECTION I KNOW AND THATS DRIVIN STRAIGHT TO THE NET


Duckman2008 posted:

Hey Flyers people, so it looks like Nolan Patrick is favored to be picked 2nd by the Flyers. Is he slated to be playable in the upcoming season (as in, should hold his own)?

I think Hextall's too patient to rush a player like Patrick into the NHL, but if there's any player that's NHL ready in this draft it's probably him. Also I'm not sure there's a place for him on the roster right now with G, Coots, and Filp at center. I think, assuming they pick Patrick, that he'll get one full year in the Q before he gets an NHL spot.

e: Also, I suspect they'd want to make sure he could play a full season in the Q without getting injured, before exposing him to the more physically demanding league.

mentholmoose fucked around with this message at May 21, 2017 around 00:57

ThinkTank
Oct 23, 2007

Please tell me I'm worthy to launder your sweaty jock Mr. Edwards!

Patrick is probably the most "NHL ready" prospect in this draft (although I hate that term) in that he probably wouldn't look out of place in an NHL lineup in October. With that said, he's missed a lot of hockey recently and another year in the minors won't hurt his development (tbf that's true of pretty much all players). I'd pencil him into the NHL for next year though.

Nissin Cup Nudist
Sep 3, 2011


There is literally no benefit for Patrick playing another year in the WHL. What he needs in a year in the AHL, but noooooope. Which is why I kinda want Nico. He can play in the AHL right away.

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sedative
Mar 20, 2003

‏ ‏ ‏ ‏ ‏ ‏ ‏ ‏ ‏ ‏ ‏ ‏ ‏ ‏ ‏ ‏ ‏ ‏ ‏ ‏ ‏ ‏ ‏ ‏ ‏ ‏ ‏ ‏ ‏ ‏ ‏ ‏ ‏ ‏ ‏ ‏


Nissin Cup Nudist posted:

There is literally no benefit for Patrick playing another year in the WHL. What he needs in a year in the AHL, but noooooope. Which is why I kinda want Nico. He can play in the AHL right away.

It was reported right after the draft lottery that he'd be AHL eligible because he's on loan from his Swiss team, but that's wrong. Apparently it was a transfer and not a loan http://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog/Bill...d-More/45/84951

I think Hextall would send Nolan Patrick back to Brandon because he missed so much time.

sedative fucked around with this message at May 21, 2017 around 01:20

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