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Who should go #1 overall?
This poll is closed.
Nolan Patrick 7 12.50%
Nico Hischier 8 14.29%
Someone Else 2 3.57%
Edmonton Oilers 39 69.64%
Total: 56 votes
[Edit Poll (moderators only)]

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Thufir
May 19, 2004

"The fucking Mayans were right."

IMO any top 5 that doesn't stick in the NHL and can't play in the A should pull a Matthews and go play in Europe. gently caress the CHL agreement.

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A Typical Goon
Feb 25, 2011

I'm not fat I'm big buffed


Nissin Cup Nudist posted:

There is literally no benefit for Patrick playing another year in the WHL. What he needs in a year in the AHL, but noooooope. Which is why I kinda want Nico. He can play in the AHL right away.

If a player is dominate in junior then there is nothing left for then to benefit from. Patrick was far from dominate in junior however.

I don't think either Patrick or Hischier should be in the NHL next year

Jordan7hm
Feb 17, 2011

MENS REA? LOL MORE LIKE CHRIS REA AM I RITE

Lipstick Apathy

Thufir posted:

IMO any top 5 that doesn't stick in the NHL and can't play in the A should pull a Matthews and go play in Europe. gently caress the CHL agreement.

It's not really pulling a Matthews. I think teams should definitely establish relationships with pro teams other than AHL for this purpose. Hell I think in a lot of ways even ECHL hockey might be better than the lap year in junior some of these guys are forced to take. At least that's pro hockey against full grown men.

Nissin Cup Nudist
Sep 3, 2011


A Typical Goon posted:

If a player is dominate in junior then there is nothing left for then to benefit from. Patrick was far from dominate in junior however.

I don't think either Patrick or Hischier should be in the NHL next year

Patrick scored 102 points in his D-1 year. How isn't that dominate?

A Typical Goon
Feb 25, 2011

I'm not fat I'm big buffed


Nissin Cup Nudist posted:

Patrick scored 102 points in his D-1 year. How isn't that dominate?

Normally dominant players aren't third on their line in PPG and they usually don't regress offensively between their draft-1 and draft year.

I like how you don't mention how he scored 46 points this season. His PPG ratio of 1.39 this season was good for 10th the WHL. The Jets 2015 4th round pick Michael Spacek is only a little over a year older and scored a higher PPG on the season. He dominant too?

The 2017 draft is garbage at the top. None of these guys are immediate impact players and I think think teams would be a lot better off letting them have an extra development year

My partner's family is from Brandon so I've probably seen Patrick play live between 5-10 times the last couple of years. He is Sam Reinhart reborn, and not at all an elite prospect, even if he does get drafted top 2

hifi
Jul 25, 2012


Dallas and philly are in unusual positions because of how far they leaped up the draft. They might as well bring up whomever they draft because burning a year of the ELC doesn't really matter when they're in the middle of their windows.

Infidel Castro
Jun 8, 2010

HELLO MY BABY
HELLO MY HONEY
HELLO MY PERNELL-KARL
♪ ♩ ♪ ♩ ♩





hifi posted:

Dallas and philly are in unusual positions because of how far they leaped up the draft. They might as well bring up whomever they draft because burning a year of the ELC doesn't really matter when they're in the middle of their windows.

The Flyers are early in their window since the rebuild was always centered around our D prospects. Granted, forward depth is our biggest issue (aside from the fact we have no loving clue who will be in goal going forward) so having whichever guy we pick in Philly next year may not be a bad idea.

Nissin Cup Nudist
Sep 3, 2011


A Typical Goon posted:

Normally dominant players aren't third on their line in PPG and they usually don't regress offensively between their draft-1 and draft year.

I like how you don't mention how he scored 46 points this season. His PPG ratio of 1.39 this season was good for 10th the WHL. The Jets 2015 4th round pick Michael Spacek is only a little over a year older and scored a higher PPG on the season. He dominant too?

The 2017 draft is garbage at the top. None of these guys are immediate impact players and I think think teams would be a lot better off letting them have an extra development year

My partner's family is from Brandon so I've probably seen Patrick play live between 5-10 times the last couple of years. He is Sam Reinhart reborn, and not at all an elite prospect, even if he does get drafted top 2

Oh come on. Patrick only scored 46 points because he broke his collarbone. You know this. And Patrick's D-1 year was leagues better than Reinhart's (if I'm reading the stats page right)

Players should have an extra development year, just not in the CHL.

corn on the cop
Oct 12, 2012

"I can't wait for the crowd, the noise, the energy in the building. I can't wait to take that all away from them."


Nissin Cup Nudist posted:

Oh come on. Patrick only scored 46 points because he broke his collarbone. You know this. And Patrick's D-1 year was leagues better than Reinhart's (if I'm reading the stats page right)

Players should have an extra development year, just not in the CHL.

I think Patrick is better than he's been given credit for, but he's in the unique situation of having a late-September birthday, and thus being one of the oldest guys in his class. His D-1 is a little misleading in that regard.

It's worth noting that were he born four days earlier, he'd have been in last year's draft (as one of the youngest players). With his great season and playoff, he's probably selected in that #3-5 range with DuBois and Puljujarvi. At this juncture, I would certainly peg him as being better than the former. He's pretty solidly a tier-2 guy.

A Typical Goon
Feb 25, 2011

I'm not fat I'm big buffed


Nissin Cup Nudist posted:

Oh come on. Patrick only scored 46 points because he broke his collarbone. You know this. And Patrick's D-1 year was leagues better than Reinhart's (if I'm reading the stats page right)

Players should have an extra development year, just not in the CHL.

You continue to ignore that Patrick's draft year was worse than his draft-1 year. Why? I suspect your favourite team has something to do with it.

I've watched Patrick enough live to be confident in my analysis of him. How many times have you seen him play?

Reinhart lead his team in scoring his draft-1 year. Patrick was third on his line in PPG in his draft-1 year. Having Quenneville and Hawryluk on his line probably had something to do with his draft-1 stats

A Typical Goon fucked around with this message at May 21, 2017 around 20:52

Wonderllama
Mar 15, 2003



I think that Patrick is probably not as good as some #1s but also better than some other #1s and I'll fight anyone that disagrees with me.

Wonderllama
Mar 15, 2003



"How many times have you seen him play live" is the new "can you skate backwards"?

Nissin Cup Nudist
Sep 3, 2011


No poo poo Patrick's development stalled this year. Because he missed half the year injured you goon.

A Typical Goon
Feb 25, 2011

I'm not fat I'm big buffed


Nissin Cup Nudist posted:

No poo poo Patrick's development stalled this year. Because he missed half the year injured you goon.

So a player who's development has stalled "has literally no benefit to staying in the WHL"

Hot take you goon

Hand Knit
Oct 24, 2005

Beer Loses more than a game Sunday ...
We lost our Captain, our Teammate, our Friend Kelly Calabro...
Rest in Peace my friend you will be greatly missed..

what the hell is going on in here?

corn on the cop
Oct 12, 2012

"I can't wait for the crowd, the noise, the energy in the building. I can't wait to take that all away from them."


Patrick was 2nd on the team in PPG behind Hawrlyuk and led the team in playoff scoring (scoring at a near-identical clip as his regular season production) but idk

Nissin Cup Nudist
Sep 3, 2011


A Typical Goon posted:

So a player who's development has stalled "has literally no benefit to staying in the WHL"

Hot take you goon

Patrick has already proved he can smoke the WHL and the NHL has much better doctors in the non-zero chance he blows out his groin again

Wonderllama
Mar 15, 2003



Don't care what was or wasn't done I'd have been stoked to win the lottery as the tampa bay lightning and draft Patrick.

But knowing yzerman, Patrick would play in the whl and then the ahl for the next 4 years

Spring Break My Heart
Feb 15, 2012


The barrier for "nothing left to learn in the CHL" is really, really high.

A Typical Goon
Feb 25, 2011

I'm not fat I'm big buffed


Spring Break My Heart posted:

The barrier for "nothing left to learn in the CHL" is really, really high.

The only recent guy I can think of that probably was hurt by the junior lap rule was Drouin, and he seems to be coming around as a top line forward. Then you have guys like Marner who did dominate junior in his draft year and who probably benefited from staying away from that garbage Leafs team in his draft+1 year.

Would Patrick really be better off playing on a garbage Jersey team instead of getting a (hopefully) full season under his belt and learning to produce more offensively on a strong WHL team?

I assume Jersey will take Patrick to get a bit more size and a right shot. Hischier and Keller are the exact same prospect

Thufir
May 19, 2004

"The fucking Mayans were right."

Not that recent but Ryan Ellis would probably have been better off in the AHL instead of scoring 101 points as a defenseman in his 4th junior year but I guess he got a lot of stuff for his trophy case out of it.

Duckman2008
Jan 6, 2010

Don't you know there ain't no devil, its just God when he's drunk.


I think the question at hand is: are both Nico and Nolan better than say, Yakupov?

Kilza
Oct 3, 2013



I'm not sure how they compare skill-wise, but I imagine Hischier and Patrick both have a lot more hockey sense (or hockey IQ or however you want to put it) than Yakupov which makes them automatically better.

Poor Yakupov. He has the skills of a 1st/2nd line RW, he just has 0 hockey sense to put it all together.

Mike_V
Jul 31, 2004

Let's* go Blackhawks! The Blues and Red Wings suck.

I wish Yak could put it together, but I think that ship has sailed. He's a good third liner on a team like the Hurricanes.

Spring Break My Heart
Feb 15, 2012


Yakupov was a super high level prospect and didn't have many complaints besides his injury, which wasn't a significant one. He was at least a better scorer than Patrick or Hischier.

Jamwad Hilder
Apr 17, 2007

surfin usa

I want Boston to take Yamamoto or Suzuki so bad. Those guys are so slick and I'm​ hoping one is still on the board by then. They're projected to go right around then too so fingers crossed.

Schlesische
Jul 4, 2012




Spring Break My Heart posted:

Yakupov was a super high level prospect and didn't have many complaints besides his injury, which wasn't a significant one. He was at least a better scorer than Patrick or Hischier.

He was really good with McDavid before "the Clavicle incident", but seemed lost after McDavid went down and never received a second chance iirc.

Also, the story was that Edmonton FO really wanted Matt Murray, but the fans had the "Fail for Nail" thing going and Katz leaned down and said "no gently caress you, you're taking Yakupov".

A Typical Goon
Feb 25, 2011

I'm not fat I'm big buffed


Schlesische posted:

He was really good with McDavid before "the Clavicle incident", but seemed lost after McDavid went down and never received a second chance iirc.

Also, the story was that Edmonton FO really wanted Matt Murray, but the fans had the "Fail for Nail" thing going and Katz leaned down and said "no gently caress you, you're taking Yakupov".

Ryan Murray. Who probably would have helped them more than Yakupov, but who is also kind of a bust

Koopa Kid
Aug 21, 2007



That was a weird draft for sure. The probable best skater was taken outside the top 10 and 3 of the top 5 look like busts, which is not something you see very often anymore.

A Typical Goon
Feb 25, 2011

I'm not fat I'm big buffed


I'd take Lindholm and Trouba over Forsberg, but yeah 2012 was an awful draft

Jamwad Hilder
Apr 17, 2007

surfin usa

2012 had plenty of good players but no real top guys

still, almost everyone taken in the first round is a regular roster player, and bottom 6/third pairing/depth players on cheap contracts are valuable too

Paracaidas
Sep 24, 2016
Literal Nazi

Can anyone give me details on Casey Mittlestadt? Can I look forward to a decade of Wild fans bitching about the Hanzal trade making it impossible to move up to get him? I'm aware this is irrational anger, but it is our specialty in these parts.

teamjack
Mar 31, 2010

Only Judy can judge me.
WWJD.


Mike_V posted:

I wish Yak could put it together, but I think that ship has sailed. He's a good third liner on a team like the Hurricanes.

Part of me hopes he gets selected by Vegas in the expansion draft. Maybe gets top 6 minutes under a Gallant or Eakins.

Kilza
Oct 3, 2013



teamjack posted:

Part of me hopes he gets selected by Vegas in the expansion draft. Maybe gets top 6 minutes under a Gallant or Eakins.

Dallas Eakins was already Yakupov's coach before, and he did not give him top 6 minutes.

Verviticus
Mar 13, 2006

Security? Please escort the fan in section 106, row 16, seat 1 out of the building right now and bar him from coming here again!


ThinkTank posted:

Petersson could well turn out to be a top quality NHLer, but it's hard to say from the stats and the Canucks specifically can't afford to mess this pick up. They need a hit, so taking a CHLer with a long track record of statistical analysis to back it up is their best bet.

ThinkTank posted:

I think it's wise to be cautious of players playing at a lower level than the rest of their peers

huh? its a mans league and pettersson was 17-18. hes playing at a higher level than his peers. brunnstrom was like, 22. pettersson's numbers are outstanding

Paracaidas posted:

Can anyone give me details on Casey Mittlestadt? Can I look forward to a decade of Wild fans bitching about the Hanzal trade making it impossible to move up to get him? I'm aware this is irrational anger, but it is our specialty in these parts.

im not a fan because he gets a lot of his points on the PP and he's relatively old. those are red flags to me

Verviticus fucked around with this message at May 23, 2017 around 08:55

ThinkTank
Oct 23, 2007

Please tell me I'm worthy to launder your sweaty jock Mr. Edwards!

Verviticus posted:

huh? its a mans league and pettersson was 17-18. hes playing at a higher level than his peers. brunnstrom was like, 22. pettersson's numbers are outstanding

Sure it's a men's league, but it's not a good one. It's a noticeable step below the SEL in terms of ability. Furthermore, almost no players go from Allvsvenskan to North America, not enough to build a complete picture of the league's strength.

NHLe isn't perfect, but the current (as of five years ago) method is to calculate the equivalency for the Allsvenskan to the SEL, then the SEL to the NHL which gives you a rate of about .36. That's slightly above the CHL's general score of .30, but a long way off most other pro leagues. So Petersson probably put up the equivalent of a 28-30 point NHL season this year in the Allsvenskan. Certainly not bad for a 17/18 year old. Then again, it's not spectacular and with the uncertainty over projecting out of the Allsvenskan there are a number of CHLers who put up equal or better seasons with much more evidence to back up their success.

Petersson could turn out to be very good, I think he's a highly skilled guy and he could very well translate that to the NHL in a meaningful capacity. My only issue is that without a bevvy of evidence to back it up, it's a big risk. It's essentially taking eyeball scouting over statistical analysis which for a team like the Canucks is the last thing they should be doing.

Mike_V
Jul 31, 2004

Let's* go Blackhawks! The Blues and Red Wings suck.

teamjack posted:

Part of me hopes he gets selected by Vegas in the expansion draft. Maybe gets top 6 minutes under a Gallant or Eakins.

Unless the Blues make an unexpected move, I don't think Yak will be qualified due to his $3M QO. He'll be a UFA and I doubt Vegas will waste a pick on what can be signed easily.

Verviticus
Mar 13, 2006

Security? Please escort the fan in section 106, row 16, seat 1 out of the building right now and bar him from coming here again!


ThinkTank posted:

Sure it's a men's league, but it's not a good one. It's a noticeable step below the SEL in terms of ability. Furthermore, almost no players go from Allvsvenskan to North America, not enough to build a complete picture of the league's strength.

NHLe isn't perfect, but the current (as of five years ago) method is to calculate the equivalency for the Allsvenskan to the SEL, then the SEL to the NHL which gives you a rate of about .36. That's slightly above the CHL's general score of .30, but a long way off most other pro leagues. So Petersson probably put up the equivalent of a 28-30 point NHL season this year in the Allsvenskan. Certainly not bad for a 17/18 year old. Then again, it's not spectacular and with the uncertainty over projecting out of the Allsvenskan there are a number of CHLers who put up equal or better seasons with much more evidence to back up their success.

Petersson could turn out to be very good, I think he's a highly skilled guy and he could very well translate that to the NHL in a meaningful capacity. My only issue is that without a bevvy of evidence to back it up, it's a big risk. It's essentially taking eyeball scouting over statistical analysis which for a team like the Canucks is the last thing they should be doing.

i feel like you're just glossing over his numbers which are part of 'statistical analysis' because its not the nhl or something. if it were so easy to just get good players by going to the chl, people wouldn't draft griffin reinhart 4th overall

i dont know if you can safely say any chler put up a better season than pettersson



he's outscored wennberg, pastrnak and forsberg in their draft years

Verviticus fucked around with this message at May 24, 2017 around 03:49

Jordan7hm
Feb 17, 2011

MENS REA? LOL MORE LIKE CHRIS REA AM I RITE

Lipstick Apathy

Verviticus posted:

i feel like you're just glossing over his numbers which are part of 'statistical analysis' because its not the nhl or something. if it were so easy to just get good players by going to the chl, people wouldn't draft griffin reinhart 4th overall

i dont know if you can safely say any chler put up a better season than pettersson



he's outscored wennberg, pastrnak and forsberg in their draft years

but got outscored by William Karlsson. Yuck.

If you look at the last five or six years guys who score that much are pretty close to sure thing NHLers. Nylander, Forsberg, and Pastrnk are all top 6 NHLers, and Berglund (cheating a bit and going back further on him) and Karlsson are more of the second / third line variety but still very good. Wennberg looks like he may end up a top line guy. Hell, even Cehlarik tore up the AHL in his first year over here.

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Verviticus
Mar 13, 2006

Security? Please escort the fan in section 106, row 16, seat 1 out of the building right now and bar him from coming here again!


and karlsson did it in his draft+1. but yeah, pettersson is about as sure-fire an nhler as anyone in the draft and its not like he's a lazy soft player. he has a motor, he's just skinny

Verviticus fucked around with this message at May 24, 2017 around 04:28

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