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TMMadman
Sep 9, 2003

He will be injured, but in the World Series he will be raised from the DL. And the Indians were filled with grief.

I still think I'm right about scum having a PGO. Possibly limited in some way, but with two goons already flipped, it could be unlimited.

It's really the only thing that makes sense in my mind. It explains why there was an extra kill on N1 and why TNL died even though he was protected.

The only other possibility is that scum could have 2 goons, a vig and assassin who could pick between using a ninja or juggernaut for each night.

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Hal Incandenza
Feb 12, 2004

Pro Eschaton Player


chaoslord posted:

I doc'd circl

OK sorry you probably said that earlier I am just trying to put it all together,

1. Scum tried to kill Kasu
2. Kasu tried to kill ???
3. Scum tried to kill Circl
4. Scum just didn't try

1 and 4 are things I am not likely to believe.

Seems like Kasu/TM scumteam is most likely based on posting and claims

Tired Moritz
Mar 25, 2012


chaoslord posted:

I just came from a scum game where I could jug someone else doing the kill. Maybe there isn't actually a ninja and the tracker just has been super unlucky. Maybe they only have a handful of ninja shots and wanted to make sure of it. Hard to know exactly why without knowing all of their powers.


It's possible sure, I just think it's unlikely.

TM, there are probably two non town players left. You seem to, for now, accept me, Madman, and circls claims. That should mean from your seat Hal and Kasu are both not town. Do you think there is only one non town player left? Because the only way I can see the scum no kill math working like your theory is for there to be two, especially with a doctor and a backup doctor in play still. I don't think a solo scum could have afforded to no kill last night.

Okay but I mean we don't really have any time or reason to play setup guessing. Beyond the MOMT, this game seems really simple. If you really want to believe that there's some kind of juggernaut giving ninja then okay, but it's quite a stretch to justify your theory when my "scum no kill" is simple and solved all the problems.

Mmm, I guess you are right that it makes more sense for two scum to exist if my theory is right. I just really don't buy that TMM keeps saying that Kasu is an ninja though. But yeah, if there really are two scum then I guess it's just Hal and Kasu.

##vote Hal I don't like Hal as much so bye.

Hal Incandenza
Feb 12, 2004

Pro Eschaton Player


TMMadman posted:

I still think I'm right about scum having a PGO. Possibly limited in some way, but with two goons already flipped, it could be unlimited.

It's really the only thing that makes sense in my mind. It explains why there was an extra kill on N1 and why TNL died even though he was protected.

The only other possibility is that scum could have 2 goons, a vig and assassin who could pick between using a ninja or juggernaut for each night.

I don't even know if I have ever seen a scum PGO. Not that it is impossible but that's a powerful role for scum.

chaoslord
Jan 28, 2009

Nature Abhors A Vacuum


Hal Incandenza posted:

Weird spot for scum to not go for their kill. To what end?

I can kind of understand if it's a two person scum team left to go to MYLO and try to get us to make the fatal lynch. Kind of. I still think going for the kill would be the better play, though, because with a doctor still around future nightkills arent guaranteed.

If there's only one scum left there is no way they withheld the kill.

Tired Moritz
Mar 25, 2012


TMMadman posted:

I still think I'm right about scum having a PGO. Possibly limited in some way, but with two goons already flipped, it could be unlimited.

It's really the only thing that makes sense in my mind. It explains why there was an extra kill on N1 and why TNL died even though he was protected.

The only other possibility is that scum could have 2 goons, a vig and assassin who could pick between using a ninja or juggernaut for each night.

Or...

The only other possibility is that scum could have 2 goons, a vig and a juggernaut for each night.

why are you so obsessed with ninjas, holy gently caress? It doesn't solve anything at all.

Hal Incandenza
Feb 12, 2004

Pro Eschaton Player


Tired Moritz posted:

Okay but I mean we don't really have any time or reason to play setup guessing. Beyond the MOMT, this game seems really simple. If you really want to believe that there's some kind of juggernaut giving ninja then okay, but it's quite a stretch to justify your theory when my "scum no kill" is simple and solved all the problems.

Mmm, I guess you are right that it makes more sense for two scum to exist if my theory is right. I just really don't buy that TMM keeps saying that Kasu is an ninja though. But yeah, if there really are two scum then I guess it's just Hal and Kasu.

##vote Hal I don't like Hal as much so bye.

Yeah that makes sense, whatever you do don't vote the guy jailed the night there was no kill and vote the guy you never mentioned before today.

Tired Moritz
Mar 25, 2012


Well, if there's only two scum then it's only you and Kasu that's the only choices in my mind. Like seriously, it's nothing personal. If you guys want me to switch to Kasu, then that's fine too.


yeah I'm using a lot of bold because people seemed to skim my posts a lot.

CirclMastr
Jul 4, 2010


I tracked Hal, who went nowhere.

Kasu hasn't posted yet which I'm not sure is noteworthy but I noticed it.

Also I voted myself MOTM.

TMMadman
Sep 9, 2003

He will be injured, but in the World Series he will be raised from the DL. And the Indians were filled with grief.

Tired Moritz posted:

Or...

The only other possibility is that scum could have 2 goons, a vig and a juggernaut for each night.

why are you so obsessed with ninjas, holy gently caress? It doesn't solve anything at all.

Because I just don't think you put a tracker and a watcher into the game without also having a ninja for the scum team.

TMMadman
Sep 9, 2003

He will be injured, but in the World Series he will be raised from the DL. And the Indians were filled with grief.

Hal Incandenza posted:

I don't even know if I have ever seen a scum PGO. Not that it is impossible but that's a powerful role for scum.

I've seen it a couple of times. Yes, it's a powerful role, but it also relies on town visiting the PGO. So it's power is also somewhat variable.

Tired Moritz
Mar 25, 2012


That's it? what a lame reasoning.

My point is that it's so useless to talk about. You keep bringing it up again and again like it's a lynchpin to your argument but so what? We have explicit proof that there's a juggernaut but you seemed to not care about it at all.

Like seriously, even if there's a ninja, had they done anything in this game? Had we had any point in this game where we were like "OH who's the killer, the only possible choices were tracked and they didn't move!" Kasu/Hal/Me haven't been tracked at all since the beginning of the game and everyone who had been flipped town. It's an absolutely pointless thing to keep bringing up.

fucck shut up about a ninja who cares

TMMadman
Sep 9, 2003

He will be injured, but in the World Series he will be raised from the DL. And the Indians were filled with grief.

Tired Moritz posted:

That's it? what a lame reasoning.

My point is that it's so useless to talk about. You keep bringing it up again and again like it's a lynchpin to your argument but so what? We have explicit proof that there's a juggernaut but you seemed to not care about it at all.

Like seriously, even if there's a ninja, had they done anything in this game? Had we had any point in this game where we were like "OH who's the killer, the only possible choices were tracked and they didn't move!" Kasu/Hal/Me haven't been tracked at all since the beginning of the game and everyone who had been flipped town. It's an absolutely pointless thing to keep bringing up.

fucck shut up about a ninja who cares

Except that we don't have proof of a juggernaut. Your making an assumption just like me.

Tired Moritz
Mar 25, 2012


what the gently caress?

CL claimed that they visited TNL but they died. How is that not proof of an Juggernaut? Are you saying that CL is lying?

And you didn't even answer the rest of my post, you ninja obsessed weirdo.

TMMadman
Sep 9, 2003

He will be injured, but in the World Series he will be raised from the DL. And the Indians were filled with grief.

Tired Moritz posted:

what the gently caress?

CL claimed that they visited TNL but they died. How is that not proof of an Juggernaut? Are you saying that CL is lying?

And you didn't even answer the rest of my post, you ninja obsessed weirdo.

Because it's not proof. I've already said how it possible for it to NOT be a juggernaut.

chaoslord
Jan 28, 2009

Nature Abhors A Vacuum


Circl what did you get for a boon?

CirclMastr
Jul 4, 2010


Part of me thinks it loses value if I say what it is, but I'm not sure so gently caress it. I got a one-shot transfer/bus driver tonight.

Tired Moritz
Mar 25, 2012


TMMadman posted:

Because it's not proof. I've already said how it possible for it to NOT be a juggernaut.

oh my god. who cares if it's a PGO or a juggernaut? They both solve the problem of TNL. An ninja doesn't solve anything or literally had not cause any problems in this game. you're just annoying obsessed with it.

I don't think there's a PGO because there's no proof that a PGO bypass doc protection when a juggernaut does.

are you actively trolling me now? Seriously? Why do you keep adding unneccessary garbage in your theories? it makes no sense.

Tired Moritz
Mar 25, 2012


CirclMastr posted:

Part of me thinks it loses value if I say what it is, but I'm not sure so gently caress it. I got a one-shot transfer/bus driver tonight.

mmm would had been better not to say it.

CirclMastr
Jul 4, 2010


Tired Moritz posted:

mmm would had been better not to say it.

That's what my gut said but I didn't want to be coy or evasive or anything.

Tired Moritz
Mar 25, 2012


CirclMastr posted:

That's what my gut said but I didn't want to be coy or evasive or anything.

not that of a big blow tbh.

Kasumeat
Nov 18, 2004


I have nothing to add. I've caught TMM lying in order to push me, I've pointed out his obsession with repeating how confirmed he is when he isn't, I've pointed out how he's led pushes on literally 100% townies, I've pointed out how his only priority this entire game is to lynch people who push him, I've pointed out the fact that he's guilty of almost everything he's accused players of being scummy for, and I've pointed out that he's completely ignored every request to address these. Yet you're all content to be led off a cliff but the scummiest player in the entire game. Enjoy.
##vote kasumeat

Hal Incandenza
Feb 12, 2004

Pro Eschaton Player


now post that 8 more times

chaoslord
Jan 28, 2009

Nature Abhors A Vacuum


Hal Incandenza posted:

now post that 8 more times

chaoslord
Jan 28, 2009

Nature Abhors A Vacuum


Madman I am going to be asking Kasu some questions about you if he comes back to the thread because I'm curious about a few things and while I can't make you stay out of it I would appreciate it if you did. The last thing I need is Kasu melting down and screwing up my awful app again.

Kasu do you still believe Madman to be a serial killer? You say you believe he is the scummiest player but I am trying to figure out if you currently think he is 3p or mafia.

TMMadman
Sep 9, 2003

He will be injured, but in the World Series he will be raised from the DL. And the Indians were filled with grief.

chaoslord posted:

Madman I am going to be asking Kasu some questions about you if he comes back to the thread because I'm curious about a few things and while I can't make you stay out of it I would appreciate it if you did. The last thing I need is Kasu melting down and screwing up my awful app again.

Kasu do you still believe Madman to be a serial killer? You say you believe he is the scummiest player but I am trying to figure out if you currently think he is 3p or mafia.

No go ahead, ask him anything you want. I'm even willing to read it all and consider it because I get super paranoid towards the end of games and always looking for some kind of curveball.

Kasumeat
Nov 18, 2004


3p, he's obviously not Mafia

I'm out drinking so further responses may not exist or be unintelligible

Tired Moritz
Mar 25, 2012


Yo guys, does anyone else have anything to say?

TMMadman
Sep 9, 2003

He will be injured, but in the World Series he will be raised from the DL. And the Indians were filled with grief.

Tired Moritz posted:

Yo guys, does anyone else have anything to say?

I'm willing to see if CL has any other questions for Kasu.

chaoslord
Jan 28, 2009

Nature Abhors A Vacuum


Slept in this morning longer than I wanted whoops.

Kasumeat posted:

3p, he's obviously not Mafia

I guess it's possible he's 3p but imo the evidence we have suggests we may not have a 3p in this game. We still have had only one night with multiple kills and with two potential individual actors having a shot at the doc I have a hard time believing no one took it.

My theory on the plane ride yesterday, which is why I wanted to ask you about your alignment read on him, was "what if TMM is a godfather?". I don't know if that would work since the tackle was not technically an investigation but I feel like I've seen a desperado vig backfire on a godfather before although I couldn't tell you when or where, and that's obviously going to be a mod to mod decision. I don't believe this theory to be true, but it's the one that crossed my mind.

Kasu, who do you think is the final remaining mafia? I doubt there are 5 non town, so a 3p means the mafia team is down to 1 remaining. I'd like to know who you think it is because if you're right about Madman being 3p, the game will continue another day even if you flip town, whereas if you're town and he's not 3p the game might be over since this is potentially MYLO with two mafia remaining.

chaoslord
Jan 28, 2009

Nature Abhors A Vacuum


Speaking of, since this is potentially MYLO I think everyone should claim. If y'all disagree since it appears as if we have one mafia caught, I won't push the issue, but since we may not get another shot at this if we end up wrong I think it's worth considering.

Kasu, at a minimum, should claim anyway.

Kasumeat
Nov 18, 2004


I'm VT.

Scum is either Circle or Hal, or both if I'm wrong about TMM. Circle I do believe is a Tracker, just not a town one. Look at his posting history: Just super safe calls. No scumhunting whatsoever. And last night he "tracked" Hal who is almost certainly either his scumbro or VT. I just can't believe we have more PRs at this point, we've got so many already plus the MotM in combination with the Tackle is basically a JOAT-with-more-than-4-extremely-unpredictable-abilities/Innocent Child combo, were it on a player who was actually conceivably not 3P.

Hal is a player I've played with before and I always have a hard time reading. He's never an aggressive or highly active player, but usually as the game progresses I see him transitioning into being a little more assertive but I don't see that here.

TM is town, I've been TRing him for the past couple of Days and that townslip with him not knowing how the NK/Jailer interaction works confirms it for me. I think you're town too mostly because I do believe there's a Doc this game but scum Docs are extremely rare.

And I've explained why TMM is 3P many, many times so I won't repeat that. Just keep in mind that if there are 2 claimed PRs and a Doc on any given night, there's only a ~25% chance that we get 2 NKs, assuming all parties will target PRs and more or less at random (and the reality is it's not random, so the actual chance of the same target being picked is actually higher).

Work soon, I'll be on again later if I'm still alive.

CirclMastr
Jul 4, 2010


As I've said I'm tracker.

The worst, most useless, unluckiest tracker, but tracker.

TMMadman
Sep 9, 2003

He will be injured, but in the World Series he will be raised from the DL. And the Indians were filled with grief.

CirclMastr posted:

As I've said I'm tracker.

The worst, most useless, unluckiest tracker, but tracker.

If you are a town tracker, and I believe that to be true, then I think you are really just a decoy/pawn along with the watcher. If I'm right, the game is almost vanilla in that it's basically supposed to be a doc/cop game trying to find the 4 man scum team which consists of 2 goons who don't move, 1 honeypot trap in a PGO, and then a ninja killer. It's what makes the most amount of sense to me.

16 players
5 moving town (one who doesn't move every night)
4 scum, 3 who don't move, 1 who can't be seen
7 'vanilla' non moving town, this includes the mason pair and the backup doc (which I believe is there to make sure town isn't defenseless if the doc walks into the PGO early)

If this is the setup, then I think it's a really neat one and I'm glad I was in it, although if it plays out like I think then I also kind of messed up the game on D1 by refusing to lynch Tired who I think is the PGO. However, I still stand by my argument that I'm not going to lynch someone on D1 if I really do think they are town at the time., even if I end up being wrong.

Kasumeat
Nov 18, 2004


CirclMastr posted:

As I've said I'm tracker.

The worst, most useless, unluckiest tracker, but tracker.

I do think you're a Tracker, I just don't think you're town. You didn't track Chaos to confirm his claim, instead going after a shot-in-the-dark in a game where there is almost certainly a Ninja still alive. And I think you're lying about your track last night to protect Hal.

Kasumeat
Nov 18, 2004


TMMadman posted:

If you are a town tracker, and I believe that to be true, then I think you are really just a decoy/pawn along with the watcher. If I'm right, the game is almost vanilla in that it's basically supposed to be a doc/cop game trying to find the 4 man scum team which consists of 2 goons who don't move, 1 honeypot trap in a PGO, and then a ninja killer. It's what makes the most amount of sense to me.

16 players
5 moving town (one who doesn't move every night)
4 scum, 3 who don't move, 1 who can't be seen
7 'vanilla' non moving town, this includes the mason pair and the backup doc (which I believe is there to make sure town isn't defenseless if the doc walks into the PGO early)

If this is the setup, then I think it's a really neat one and I'm glad I was in it, although if it plays out like I think then I also kind of messed up the game on D1 by refusing to lynch Tired who I think is the PGO. However, I still stand by my argument that I'm not going to lynch someone on D1 if I really do think they are town at the time., even if I end up being wrong.

Hmm yes, here is the "almost vanilla" Town:

1 Tracker
1 Watcher
1 Cop
1 Doc
1 Backup Doc
1 Developing JOAT-variation
1 Day-vig/non-scum confirmer Tackle thing
1 MOTM boon guaranteed to hit the non-scum every day which is a super-JOAT

Kasumeat
Nov 18, 2004


Anyways, actually leaving now

Tired Moritz
Mar 25, 2012


im gonna give up in trying to convince people that it's probably just a 2 goon/1 vig/1 juggernaut team. whatever, who cares. we can speculate about the setup forever, it's not really going to help.

but seriously, I do think Hal is scum and I really don't read Kasu as scum but he's unfortunately the second best choice after Hal. Then Circl > CL > TMM

So I'm just gonna stick onto Hal for now. also sleep time for me.

Tired Moritz
Mar 25, 2012


TMM's obsesssion with PGO is so loving stupid lmao

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Hal Incandenza
Feb 12, 2004

Pro Eschaton Player


Sorry I have had a really busy couple days, i will try and post some thoughts tonight when I can

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