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Brutal way to lose a game. It was the guy's first major league at bat too. https://twitter.com/rcarlson85/status/881335615337500673
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Jul 2, 2017 12:26
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| # ¿ Apr 26, 2024 05:09 |
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There's an absurd amount of great 3Bs in the NL right now. Rendon is putting up a .300/.400/.550 line and is 3rd in the league in WAR. Vote Rendon y'all.
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Jul 3, 2017 02:28
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bawfuls posted:Literally not as good as Justin Turner I was going to make a smug argument about rate vs. counting stats but then I looked it up and Turner's been worth 3.8 fWAR which would ordinarily give him the NL lead, except he's been hurt and doesn't have enough PAs to qualify for the leaderboard. Which begs the question: why does Fangraphs have a min PA requirement for a counting stat?
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Jul 3, 2017 12:55
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There's always a bunch of shuffling that goes on at the last minute as guys go on the DL / skip the game to rest so the chances are good that some of the more egregious snubs end up on the roster after all.
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Jul 3, 2017 15:38
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KICK BAMA KICK posted:I am INSANELY PISSED about that game It's nice to be on the other side of an infuriating bullpen meltdown for once.
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Jul 8, 2017 11:49
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ihatepants posted:I posted this on Reddit a few weeks ago but it's still relevant now. Saying Judge is overperforming right now only because his BABIP is really high is misleading because it doesn't take into account his launch angle and ability to hit the ball hard. Aaron Judge will not sustain a .419 BABIP. Please do not try to convince yourself otherwise.
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Jul 8, 2017 18:55
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Intruder posted:This whole discussion lead me to check something and... wtf? Barry Bonds career high BABIP was .330?! His career BABIP was .285?! Home runs and walks aren't in play, I guess I'm not surprised that the home run + walk king wouldn't need a very high BABIP
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Jul 8, 2017 19:15
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It's Scherzer time baby
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Jul 9, 2017 23:54
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The Cubs are going to the Super Bowl
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Jul 10, 2017 02:08
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Inspector_666 posted:Not only does it use FIP, it correlates almost perfectly to it, if I recall correctly. They're basically the same thing.
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Jul 10, 2017 15:38
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bawfuls posted:FIP is a descriptive "factual" stat. Except that in this specific context (how fWAR is calculated) it has replaced ERA. ERA is not factored into fWAR in any capacity, and as a result pitchers who have success preventing runs by inducing weak contact rather than piling up strikeouts are described as being less valuable. So you can put up 210 innings with a 2.83 ERA (Tanner Roark 2016, 3.2 fWAR) and be considered less valuable than 204 innings with a 4.37 ERA (Marcus Stroman 2016, 3.6 fWAR) which is counterintuitive because the pitcher's job is to prevent runs. It would seem sensible that the pitcher who allowed fewer runs in more innings would be more valuable by definition. The common argument against that line of thinking is that pitchers with low ERAs and high FIPs are likely to regress in the direction of their FIP. Contact management is extremely difficult to maintain long term and pitchers who outperform their FIP significantly are almost always benefiting from good defense or luck. The only thing that pitchers can truly control, the argument goes, is the number of batters they strike out, walk or give up homers to. Everything else is confounded by luck and/or defense, so we should give credit to the pitchers who do the best job at controlling what they can control (TTO metrics). But that results in the absurd scenario above where pitchers are rewarded for an abstraction rather than the actual result of the game. Ultimately the job is to prevent runs and a pitcher's WAR should reflect how well they did that, regardless of whether or not its sustainable. We don't ding batters WAR because they have a high BABIP or HR/FB%, we shouldn't do the equivalent for pitchers either.
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Jul 10, 2017 16:45
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bawfuls posted:The bold line is a step too far. Strikeouts, walks, and home runs are not abstractions. FIP is not rewarding abstractions. It is rewarding a different set of results than ERA. But it is an abstraction because it rewards that set of results by converting it into runs. The fundamental idea behind WAR is to quantify the number of runs that an individual produces and/or prevents relative to replacement level and then convert those into a number of wins. Basing pitcher WAR on FIP requires that one use FIP to calculate runs above replacement, which means that you're changing units from Ks, BBs & HRs to runs. That requires creating an abstraction of how many runs are typically allowed by players with that FIP profile since there's no direct way to convert TTO metrics into runs. It makes more sense to use a metric that is already measured in the same units (ERA) because you don't have to take the step of calculating how FIP converts to RAR. That's what I mean when I say fWAR is rewarding an abstraction. And the comparison to batters doesn't hold up because batters do not control the at-bats subsequent to their own. If you hit a double, you cannot then drive yourself in by hitting another double because you're standing on second base. A pitcher influences every single at bat while they're pitching, and can very easily give up a double and then another double to allow a run to score and be responsible for (or at least involved in) both events. I do however think it's a fair point that we shouldn't totally discount context-independent stats for pitchers, but I think the appropriate way to do that is to look at something like total bases allowed per out recorded or wOBAA. ego symphonic fucked around with this message at 18:46 on Jul 10, 2017 |
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Jul 10, 2017 18:41
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Intruder posted:You would be correct if bawfuls was saying fWAR should be taken on its own as the one true measure of a pitcher's skill. That however is not what he's been saying at all Yeah, sorry, I know that's not what he's saying but I feel like that's what Fangraph's presentation of the stat implies. This is just me old-man-yells-at-clouding about Fangraphs. I agree with all the things Bawfuls and others have said about FIP itself. But I do think that WAR is intended to be a single stat that encapsulates all of the ways that a player contributes value to a team and that basing it on only a single dimension of performance (FIP or otherwise) will result it misleading conclusions about player value. ego symphonic fucked around with this message at 19:40 on Jul 10, 2017 |
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Jul 10, 2017 19:17
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Intruder posted:If you're ever in Houston go here What if I just eat Torchys for every other meal instead?
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Jul 11, 2017 19:53
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Intruder posted:assman has some competition I bet Poque is wetbutt23's source. Admit it!
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Jul 13, 2017 22:05
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Goodpancakes posted:Wet Butt used to be an SA name I laughed at ages ago Wett Butt was a great FYAD poster many moons ago
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Jul 14, 2017 15:41
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howe_sam posted:Red Sox (finally) DFA Pablo Sandoval. What a lovely lovely signing. $95 million for 2 years of -2.5 WAR. Yeowch. If there's any consolation, it's somehow still a better contract than the Ryan Howard deal at $138 million for 5 years of -2.3 WAR. And the Sox had the good sense to cut their losses rather than allow an inferior player to block someone useful for years and years.
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Jul 14, 2017 15:55
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Intruder posted:I feel extremely confident non-guaranteed contracts will be a line in the sand Agreed. With the NFL serving as a shining example of just how beshitted the non-guaranteed contract situation really is there is a 0% chance that any players' union in any sport with guaranteed contracts would ever accept a CBA proposal that got rid of them.
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Jul 14, 2017 17:27
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Joe Ross needs TJ surgery and will likely miss most of 2018 in addition to this season. I think this means the Nats 5th starter becomes... Edwin Jackson? gently caress.
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Jul 15, 2017 23:37
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Sydin posted:Trades! I like this a lot. Luzardo was highly regarded but has pitched fewer than 15 innings of professional baseball and I'm perfectly content to let somebody else try to figure out how to make Blake Treinen good. As long as Madson and Doolittle can avoid publicly choking Bryce Harper in the dugout this looks like an awesome return.
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Jul 16, 2017 18:42
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So it looks like Andrew McCutchen is good again? That's nice to see.
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Jul 17, 2017 14:42
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Tom Gorman posted:the most unfathomable age statistic is that Edwin Jackson is somehow still pitching and is also only 33 He pitched well, too! 7 innings and 2 earned runs. I'm sure he'll turn back into a pumpkin by his next start and go back to being terrible for the rest of the year, but I guess the Nats could do a lot worse for an emergency 5th starter than an innings eater on a pro-rated league minimum salary.
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Jul 19, 2017 20:38
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Nothing will ever serve as a stupider foundation for a rivalry than Braves / Nationals because Harper stepped on the A one time.
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Jul 20, 2017 20:45
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xbilkis posted:One of the worst sports watching experiences of my life was being at a Columbia bar with a Royals fan friend for Game 5 of the 2012 Cardinals-Nats NLDS Please do not trigger me.
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Jul 21, 2017 17:03
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Timby posted:In addition to Kershaw going down, Strasburg also left after two innings today with an undisclosed injury. Getting mixed signals on this. Dusty says it was precautionary and they don't foresee needing to do an MRI or anything, but Stras says it felt like general forearm achiness/tightness which we all know is the kiss of death. So this is either nothing at all or a total catastrophe. Hooray baseball.
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Jul 24, 2017 02:50
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If we're including pitcher WAR then Chris Sale gets involved and he and Judge are very similar in height, even if Judge outweighs him by nearly 100 pounds.
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Jul 25, 2017 18:05
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Adrian Beltre is a national treasure.
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Jul 27, 2017 13:13
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Brett definitely had the higher peak with five different 7+ WAR seasons to Beltre's one, but Beltre is apparently immune to age and has played at a consistently excellent level for far longer than Brett did. Also, terrible timing by Beltre putting up a 10 win season in the national league in 2004. Would have been a no-doubt MVP choice in pretty much any other context.
ego symphonic fucked around with this message at 14:45 on Jul 27, 2017 |
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Jul 27, 2017 13:59
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Paul Zuvella posted:Turns out giving pitchers 7 year deals is bad???!!??!? I'm worried that if I point out that the Max Scherzer contract is looking like a bargain at this point karma will re-align itself and his arm will fall off in the shower tomorrow.
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Jul 28, 2017 17:55
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No he should go to MY favorite team!
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Jul 28, 2017 19:14
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Inspector_666 posted:So here's something really cool from the HoF ceremony today: This is wonderful. Talk about living the dream.
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Jul 31, 2017 02:05
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Would be nice if the Nats got another bullpen arm but I'm not going to flip out if they don't.
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Jul 31, 2017 17:27
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Checking in with Yu https://twitter.com/faridyu/status/892110323498536960
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Jul 31, 2017 20:52
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| # ¿ Apr 26, 2024 05:09 |
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Where are the trades. Where are they
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Jul 31, 2017 20:56
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