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Grittybeard posted:Discount Vegas's opinion at your own peril is all I'll say. http://massey-peabody.com/uncategorized/2017-nfl-week-4-picks/ One of my buddies does modeling for the NFL. He's done some work to quantify home field advantage which the bookies might not be taking into account correctly. Says it should be PHL-2.
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Sep 29, 2017 14:45
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Bookies go where the betting takes them, they don't have secret information
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Sep 29, 2017 16:32
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It might be possible to overstate the homefield advantage the chargers will enjoy at their half-filled soccer stadium, though. Meanwhile after losing all my funbux on an unwise six-way parlay last week, I managed to win my TNF gamble so I'm going into Sunday with a fat $995.05, woo! Gonna splash this cheese around!
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Sep 29, 2017 21:47
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I wouldn't be shocked if Eagles fans just about outnumber Chargers fans there on Sunday. Plus with the game at 1 PT, timezone differences shouldn't really factor in.
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Sep 29, 2017 22:29
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Grittybeard posted:Discount Vegas's opinion at your own peril is all I'll say. This sentence shows a remarkable lack of understanding on what the spread means. Do you think Vegas thought Conor McGregor could win 1 out of 5 fights against Mayweather?
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Sep 29, 2017 22:59
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WampaLord posted:Ahahahahaha why are they favorites? That is basically what I was thinking. (Though I believe the spreads are not odds but just Vegas' attempt to get even money on each outcome based on the public's perceived odds.) Still, I guess I'm sticking with the Skins losing because I think I like the Chiefs at home more than I like the Eagles on the road.
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Sep 30, 2017 00:18
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Magnetic North posted:That is basically what I was thinking. (Though I believe the spreads are not odds but just Vegas' attempt to get even money on each outcome based on the public's perceived odds.) Still, I guess I'm sticking with the Skins losing because I think I like the Chiefs at home more than I like the Eagles on the road. This is exactly how Vegas betting works. Odds are determined by what's going to get even bets on either side of the line, not anything actually predictive.
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Sep 30, 2017 00:24
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Strobe posted:This is exactly how Vegas betting works. Odds are determined by what's going to get even bets on either side of the line, not anything actually predictive. Casino companies are suprisingly risk averse with regards to gambling. Ideally they want balanced action, but if you have situations where the modelers and 'quants' are putting in money on one side and the public is going on the other, they may let a line or two go unbalanced.
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Sep 30, 2017 05:57
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Intruder posted:Bookies go where the betting takes them, they don't have secret information The betting is what I mean. On non ridiculous events like May/McGregor the large money has more interest than anyone in the world. The bookies/lines are a representation of what people who make their living doing this thing instead of your average idiot betting 20 bucks on a game, and if a line seems very weird there's usually a reason.
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Sep 30, 2017 06:55
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I put all my funbux on the Jags on the moneyline just to get an easy win I also took the Jags in normal eliminator and spread eliminator WHAT WAS I THINKING
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Oct 1, 2017 18:49
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Intruder posted:I put all my funbux on the Jags on the moneyline just to get an easy win Never, NEVER bet on the same team in Eliminator and Reverse
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Oct 1, 2017 18:56
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Acebuckeye13 posted:Never, NEVER bet on the same team in Eliminator and Reverse I didn't, I took the Colts in reverse I put all my faith in the Jags this week is what I was saying
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Oct 1, 2017 19:07
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Intruder posted:I didn't, I took the Colts in reverse Never bet on the Jags. Or Rams.
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Oct 1, 2017 19:35
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Oct 1, 2017 20:19
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took the bills to lose in reverse. welp.
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Oct 1, 2017 21:00
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i hate the stupid loving falcons i will never bet on your dipshit scrub asses ever again
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Oct 1, 2017 21:03
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Welp, so much for using the Pats this week of all weeks.
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Oct 1, 2017 21:03
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God drat Falcons
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Oct 1, 2017 21:04
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Pats lose. Falcons lose. Cowboys lose. Jax lose. BLOODBATH WEEK
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Oct 1, 2017 21:37
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let it be known that for at least a short while, I was (tied for) #1 in pick'em
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Oct 1, 2017 21:38
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Thanks JagsTurdsdown Tom posted:let it be known that for at least a short while, I was (tied for) #1 in pick'em Uh look at those records
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Oct 1, 2017 21:38
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My reverse season died so the Pats could lose. A worthy sacrifice.
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Oct 1, 2017 21:39
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You always take the Bills at the Pats in reverse. Any other week is asking for it  axeil posted:My reverse season died so the Pats could lose.
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Oct 1, 2017 21:46
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Ouch, my pick'em.
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Oct 1, 2017 21:46
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I'm doing well in spread pickem, but holy shnikes, Crispy Seaweed has a 36-18-1 spread pickem 
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Oct 1, 2017 21:51
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Intruder posted:Uh look at those records people who forget to make a pick in every game don't count 
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Oct 1, 2017 22:06
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axeil posted:My reverse season died so the Pats could lose. I doubled down on a Pats win and I double down on this sentiment.
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Oct 1, 2017 22:18
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I've lost nearly 1800 funbucks so far this weekend and somehow I managed to take first place. Man what a crazy week for football.
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Oct 1, 2017 22:33
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Woo! Hit my 10:1 3-way parlay of the texans, lions, and eagles winning. Now the leader.
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Oct 2, 2017 00:18
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As of halftime, I'm feeling pretty good about taking the Colts in Spread Eliminator and Pickem.
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Oct 2, 2017 03:26
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How are you feeling now?
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Oct 2, 2017 04:03
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Less good.
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Oct 2, 2017 04:24
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Kalli posted:Ouch, my pick'em. 10-5 so far, I actually did alright in this weird and wild weekend Helps that I picked the Texans and Rams
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Oct 2, 2017 04:44
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Welp I'm part of the Falcons bloodbath. Hard to be upset about it though when they lose all their receivers to injury. Still going strong in reverse! 4 weeks in now and it's been a pretty crazy season. Looking forward to watching this all unfold.
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Oct 2, 2017 14:44
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I'm going all-in on the Steelers game this week due to the lack of obvious blowouts. Second place to the Eagles/Cards game, since the Cards' two wins were as lackluster as possible.
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Oct 3, 2017 01:31
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hahahahHAHAHHAH
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Oct 3, 2017 04:52
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Bet a parlay with the Chiefs to cover as my final step. 
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Oct 3, 2017 05:01
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I switched from the Chiefs in Eliminator yesterday, which was dumb. Luckily I chose the Seahawks, and equally luckily they didn't gently caress it up.
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Oct 3, 2017 05:02
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..... Is the eliminator pick for the week a road team that just gave up 57 points?
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Oct 3, 2017 15:56
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Kalli posted:..... Is the eliminator pick for the week a road team that just gave up 57 points?
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Oct 3, 2017 18:17
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