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axeil posted:
You also have to actually follow them and not draft players based off what a homeless guy shouts at you. (That's the dream man, the loving dream)
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Sep 19, 2017 21:26
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axeil posted:
Doesn't the NFL provide too little sample size season to season to rely on analytics? I'm not talking about yeah go for it on 4th down in most situations stuff. Building a team around analytics doesn't seem to have a strong foothold in football because of sample size and scheme. SunshineDanceParty fucked around with this message at 22:07 on Sep 19, 2017 |
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Sep 19, 2017 22:03
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axeil posted:Analytics work, you just have to give them time. see: The 2004 Boston Red Sox and 2016 Chicago Cubs Yes it works very well in baseball. I can only hope turning the front office to the guys from Football Outsiders is a good idea and Jimmy somehow broke the habit of forcing picks. Dear god if he sacrifices Hue to keep these schmucks around....oh who am I kidding it's Stockholm syndrome at this point 
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Sep 19, 2017 22:06
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The average football team probably runs around 1000 offensive plays a year. The average baseball team probably has about 6500 plate appearances. There's not really very much more useful information to be gained in baseball in that regard. I would think the biggest issue is attribution. In baseball it's real easy to determine who is responsible for production, and you can pretty easily compare and contrast. How much better is Aaron Rodgers than his back up? Who knows, unless something goes terribly wrong his back up is never going to play meaningful snaps.
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Sep 19, 2017 23:57
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Simplex posted:The average football team probably runs around 1000 offensive plays a year. The average baseball team probably has about 6500 plate appearances. There's not really very much more useful information to be gained in baseball in that regard. What? This isn't a remotely comparable sample. In baseball you're always hitting and pitching from the same position. Meanwhile in football those plays are a mixture of many different types of formation, against a number of different possible defensive formations. That "sample" you've given of football plays has to be cut up into different offensive fronts versus different defensive fronts at the very least. Then there's stuff like different personnel packages, different opposing strength and weakness, the intent of the offense on the play, the intent of the defense on the play, time of possession, starting position, etc. Then there's the fact that every football play has multiple different outcomes which determine the value of that particular outcome. In baseball hitting a single is always worth a single. In football getting a 5 yard gain can be worthless or very good depending on the circumstances. You would need a huge amount more data to make advanced stats work in football, and instead we've got 6.5x less. Advanced stats are very difficult to make work in football because of stuff like this. Hope the browns guys know what they're doing. troofs fucked around with this message at 00:29 on Sep 20, 2017 |
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Sep 20, 2017 00:25
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McAdoo was a very good offensive coordinator who apparently has no idea how to balance his offensive duties with his newfound coaching responsibilities. I've never seen playcalling that was so genuinely uninspiring. He got more out of slugs like Rueben Randle and Larry Donnell as O-coordinator than he's getting out of Sterling Shepard and Brandon Marshall as coach. Kevin loving Gilbride's play calls were more inspired. Odell getting healthy will make them semi-competent which is all they need to be but that just continues to mask the stench. Let's not even get into Jerry Reese inheriting a very good offensive line built by his predecessor and coasting on it until it finally fell apart in 2011. Fortunately Eli was six years younger and they had just signed some unknown named Victor Cruz.
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Sep 20, 2017 00:32
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McAdoo's not exactly an inspiring offensive mind for a couple of reasons: -the running game is uninspired garbage. What the Giants do on offense reminds of what the Chargers tried to with McCoy/Reich running the offense a couple of years ago - it's mostly just really uncreative zone runs, mainly inside zone with a draw play or an outside zone. Teams don't take the Giants running the ball seriously because it's obvious they just do it for effect instead of actually using to complement the passing game and/or finishing off both drives and games. I seriously can't fuckin remember the last time I saw the Giants try running a counter or pulled a guard out. The other reason is... -their o-line personnel just blow rear end for the most part. Pugh and Richberg are solid players and that's pretty much it. Flowers is a total disaster of an LT, Hart's outmatched at RT even before he got injured and John Jerry is just "there" as a player even on a good day. Their o-line isn't athletic enough as an overall unit to try and protect Manning for extended periods and they're not capable of executing that garbage finesse running game. The Giants have good talent at the skill positions in theory, but their offense is totally dysfunctional because they flat out can't block even on a good day. -I said in theory because that offense also flat out does not function without Odell on the field. Shepard can't get open on his own right now, Brandon Marshall hasn't been impressive. Evan Ingram looks like he has a ton of potential as a receiving TE but that's about all their is to write home about without OBJ. None of those receivers are getting open without him drawing the coverage; their offense is utterly dependant on him not just being great, but dominant game in and out. When he played badly against the Packers last year, that offense just completely poo poo itself and got their defense worn down against a first ballot HOFer and an offensive line that gave him all day to throw.
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Sep 20, 2017 00:46
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troofs posted:What? This isn't a remotely comparable sample. Yeah all of this is why the advanced stats movement lost steam in football.
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Sep 20, 2017 01:17
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SunshineDanceParty posted:Yeah all of this is why the advanced stats movement lost steam in football. You can still do a bunch with advanced stats even though a lot of it is very leaky. Statistics are very useful in context but they're far from an objective measure the way they are in baseball.
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Sep 20, 2017 02:47
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troofs posted:You can still do a bunch with advanced stats even though a lot of it is very leaky. Yep. Stats in baseball are huge because of how uniform the game is. Stats are still useful in basketball/hockey/football/soccer but it's much more difficult to apply. Much more difficult doesn't mean impossible though.
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Sep 20, 2017 03:19
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axeil posted:Yep. Stats in baseball are huge because of how uniform the game is. Stats are still useful in basketball/hockey/football/soccer but it's much more difficult to apply. For sure. Sadly, a lot of people still like to pick 20 different variables, assign them arbitrary numerical values and then smack them into a regression model and pretend the result means something. "I put shoe size into my model and it improved my fit!  "
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Sep 20, 2017 03:36
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troofs posted:You can still do a bunch with advanced stats even though a lot of it is very leaky. Sure and that's why the team's that are interested run their own internal advanced stat departments who know what the play was suppose to be. But we don't have access to any of that and who knows how they survive regime changes. SunshineDanceParty fucked around with this message at 03:52 on Sep 20, 2017 |
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Sep 20, 2017 03:43
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troofs posted:For sure. Sadly, a lot of people still like to pick 20 different variables, assign them arbitrary numerical values and then smack them into a regression model and pretend the result means something. I wonder if I did this and threw in sunspots as a wink and a nod to spurious correlation if I could get some dumb sports writing platform to publish it.
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Sep 20, 2017 03:57
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axeil posted:I wonder if I did this and threw in sunspots as a wink and a nod to spurious correlation if I could get some dumb sports writing platform to publish it. Considering some of the stuff I've seen earnestly discussed in med schools and published in real actual medical journals, I guarantee it!
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Sep 20, 2017 04:04
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axeil posted:I wonder if I did this and threw in sunspots as a wink and a nod to spurious correlation if I could get some dumb sports writing platform to publish it. There is no correlation dumb enough that sports writers won't eat it up.
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Sep 20, 2017 05:28
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Soon someone will try and prove the Bengals cannot have a good night game.
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Sep 20, 2017 06:37
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troofs posted:What? This isn't a remotely comparable sample. The point is your margin of error because of sample size is not hugely different between 1000 and 6000. The major difference between football and baseball is that baseball is relatively easier to distill into one-on-one match-ups, so in baseball it is much easier to assign blame or praise. Even at a basic, non advanced stats level, batting average isn't a better measure of player performance than yards-per-carry because a MLB player has 600 plate appearances, but a running back only has 300 carries. It's better because batting average is a truer measurement of individual player performance than YPC is.
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Sep 20, 2017 08:03
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The main problem with YPC is actually that it is way too sensitive to outliers, so actually a large amount more data would probably make it a perfectly fine stat.
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Sep 20, 2017 09:07
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I feel like we're getting away from the main point here, which is that the Giants offense is poo poo
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Sep 20, 2017 09:15
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Benne posted:I feel like we're getting away from the main point here, which is that the Giants offense is poo poo And you don't need a big sample to tell you that. When's the last time a team made a trade for an actual starting quality lineman midseason? Cus barring that, if Reese can't at least partially fix the line this off-season he should be gone. This has been coming for years.
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Sep 20, 2017 09:17
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You guys should maybe take this conversation up in the ground control thread? At least it would be a more appropriate thread than this one if the smarthouse is archived. This is the thread to advocate for firing Ben McAdoo as far as I'm concerned.
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Sep 20, 2017 09:38
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troofs posted:When's the last time a team made a trade for an actual starting quality lineman midseason? Eugene Monroe is the most recent I think, but then his entire body exploded so maybe the Jags knew something was up
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Sep 20, 2017 09:38
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troofs posted:And you don't need a big sample to tell you that. NFL player trades almost never happened before (mostly just pick-for-pick), but we just saw a million trades in the preseason so who knows, maybe the trade deadline might actually be interesting this year? E: And yeah, gonna side with Grittybeard. The analytics debate is fascinating, but probably belongs in a different thread so we don't drown out all the laughing at poo poo coaches here. Benne fucked around with this message at 09:47 on Sep 20, 2017 |
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Sep 20, 2017 09:44
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Vando posted:Eugene Monroe is the most recent I think, but then his entire body exploded so maybe the Jags knew something was up  "
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Sep 20, 2017 11:16
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Please clone Tony Boselli, somebody. 
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Sep 20, 2017 11:35
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AAAAA! Real Muenster posted:I think it was more of a "We drafted Joekel, we dont need Monroe anymore!
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Sep 20, 2017 12:01
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Arkhams Razor posted:Wasn't Joekel injured the week after that trade went through, on top of that? Did either team benefit in the long run from that trade? Jags? Benefit? 
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Sep 20, 2017 12:04
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Randaconda posted:Please clone Tony Boselli, somebody. You don't know how badly I miss Phil Loadholt.
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Sep 20, 2017 12:30
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Darth Brooks posted:You don't know how badly I miss Phil Loadholt. He did have one of the best OT names ever.
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Sep 20, 2017 12:46
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Arkhams Razor posted:Wasn't Joekel injured the week after that trade went through, on top of that? Did either team benefit in the long run from that trade?
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Sep 20, 2017 12:47
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When does Pagano actually get the boot? Looking at their schedule (and depending on record) it seems like after VS Jacksonville, @Houston, or the bye week are the most likely targets, unless they get torn apart in supremely embarrassing fashion in one of the other games.
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Sep 20, 2017 14:00
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GobiasIndustries posted:When does Pagano actually get the boot? Looking at their schedule (and depending on record) it seems like after VS Jacksonville, @Houston, or the bye week are the most likely targets, unless they get torn apart in supremely embarrassing fashion in one of the other games. If Luck is out all year you might as well just wait and do it when the season is over.
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Sep 20, 2017 14:12
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sportsgenius86 posted:If Luck is out all year you might as well just wait and do it when the season is over.
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Sep 20, 2017 14:16
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sportsgenius86 posted:If Luck is out all year you might as well just wait and do it when the season is over. Luck is absolutely out the whole year. The guy isn't even throwing yet. It just boggles my mind that the whole organization is pretending like he's fine.
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Sep 20, 2017 14:50
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Pagano will get fired if they get blown out a few more times, especially if it causes attendance to start slipping bad
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Sep 20, 2017 15:23
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Interesting. We'll see if he wants to leave his own mark while he controls the team. https://twitter.com/RichCimini/status/910545801130242049
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Sep 20, 2017 17:48
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axeil posted:Luck is absolutely out the whole year. The guy isn't even throwing yet. It just boggles my mind that the whole organization is pretending like he's fine. Gotta sell those tickets, my man!
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Sep 20, 2017 17:52
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Are the Colts the best team in the AFCS even with a healthy Luck? Because honestly looking at their roster as a whole, I don't think they're better than Tennessee outside of a handful of players. The Texans' o-line sucks out loud but their defense is very good.
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Sep 20, 2017 18:57
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Durandal1707 posted:Are the Colts the best team in the AFCS even with a healthy Luck? Because honestly looking at their roster as a whole, I don't think they're better than Tennessee outside of a handful of players. The Texans' o-line sucks out loud but their defense is very good. the division is probably Tennessee's to lose at the end of the day. Luck's probably done for the year.
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Sep 20, 2017 18:59
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Diva Cupcake posted:Interesting. We'll see if he wants to leave his own mark while he controls the team. This makes is more likely they are gone IMO. The more interesting thing is who is going to decide how much they are going to pay the next coach...
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Sep 20, 2017 21:27
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