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QuoProQuid
Jan 12, 2012

Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
T O P

i was once a mafia

so i guess im in


Apparently, you need to be new so nevermind!

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QuoProQuid
Jan 12, 2012

Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
T O P

i am the n0 cop and sitting here is guilty of moider.

##vote: sh

QuoProQuid
Jan 12, 2012

Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
T O P

Exmond posted:

Gentlemen and ladies I'd like to point out.. CORRUPTION within the ranks. Take a look to the left and notice my shiny new avatar. I won it through gruelling hard work (or lack thereof). But you know who did not get an avatar..

JonJoe..

And who is responsible for avatars..

SebMojo.

Now you might ask, Does sebmojo eat babies? But that's not the right question, the question you should be asking is "Does SebMojo take bribes that are babies so he can eat them" and the answer is YES! I have no proof but I have passion! And in this new era of presidents and sexy premiers, I think Passion overrules evidence.

And with this speech, I would like to propose that Sebmojo is corrupt and we should murder him.

are you the mafia, exmond

QuoProQuid
Jan 12, 2012

Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
T O P

counterpoint: sitting here smells bad

QuoProQuid
Jan 12, 2012

Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
T O P

Thranguy posted:

Yeah joining bandwagons seems more suspicious than starting them ##vote Tyrannosaurus

Is it a bandwagon if there are only two people involved?

QuoProQuid
Jan 12, 2012

Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
T O P

Sitting Here posted:

my suggestion is that we all work together to find a way out of this crazy situation actually

no

QuoProQuid
Jan 12, 2012

Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
T O P

but for realsies, sittinghere is scum

QuoProQuid
Jan 12, 2012

Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
T O P

that's not an insult directed at sittinghere. it's just slang for a member of the mafia

QuoProQuid
Jan 12, 2012

Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
T O P

SurreptitiousMuffin posted:

I feel like "ironically" trying to start a bandwagon is either 1) a person who doesn't realise they're actively aiding the scum or 2) scum trying to double their income in a way that's plausibly denial

Either way can we cut that poo poo out?

How are we meant to discuss things if no one is willing to land a vote on anyone else? The day ends in 24 hours.

QuoProQuid
Jan 12, 2012

Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
T O P

SurreptitiousMuffin posted:

Standard mafia practice: first day is a no-vote. Random voting (ESPECIALLY in early stages) has an extremely high chance of hitting the town. You need to build up a profile.

lol. what, no.

by not voting we lose an opportunity to track down the scum. yes, there's a chance of hitting town but if we no-lynch we surrender our only means of getting accurate information from the moderator .

you should never no lynch. it's bad strategy.

QuoProQuid
Jan 12, 2012

Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
T O P

SurreptitiousMuffin posted:

You're going to get information from the moderator anyway -- somebody innocent is going to die and who they are tells you a lot. I mean if a random lynching happens, it happens and that's more data, but I'm not voting in it today.

I guess it's kinda a bad risk-reward? You double your data (from kills), but also half your window. There's a lot of data potentially lost, because the thread doesn't last as long and people aren't talking as much.



Assuming true randomness in lynch targets, the town has a greater probability of eventually hitting scum if it lynches someone D1 than it does in putting the decision off. In the "No-Lynch" scenario, there are four town members and two scum members alive on D3. If the town mislynches the game ends that night when the scum kill. In the YOLO scenario, there are three town members alive and two scum left on D3. The town mislynches and the game ends.

Putting aside math, a No-Lynch forces all the town roles to operate on minimal information. There's no way to use the flip, bandwagons, and cases to inform role choices. Nor is there as much information to operate on D2. While people can analyze the scum kill, there's little information to glean from the day itself. Everything ends up swaddled in circular reasoning.

In light of your recent posts, I really don't think you are scum. In fact, I'm about 85% sure of it. I do, however, think that a No-Lynch on D1 is the worst possible move that the town can make.

QuoProQuid
Jan 12, 2012

Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
T O P

That chart should be entitled "Percent Chance of Hitting Scum in a 9 Player Game" btw

QuoProQuid
Jan 12, 2012

Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
T O P

Sitting Here posted:

qpq craves death i guess

it is legit the only thing that keeps me going

Exmond posted:

Keep in mind we dont know how many scum players there are? I thought it was random assignment of people?

from op:

https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Backup6

quote:

The setup is determined by randomly selecting one row or one column from the above table, then filling in the remaining 6 roles with 5 Vanilla Townies and 1 Mafia Goon to create a 7-town, 2-mafia setup.

For example, if Row 1 (Town Jailkeeper, Vanilla Townie, and Mafia Goon) was chosen, the full setup will be 1 Town Jailkeeper, 6 Vanilla Townies, and 2 Mafia Goons.

QuoProQuid
Jan 12, 2012

Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
T O P

people should vote sh, imho

QuoProQuid
Jan 12, 2012

Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
T O P

there's no need to apologize, friendo

who do you think is the most suspicious person iit atm

QuoProQuid
Jan 12, 2012

Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
T O P

Exmond posted:

My list of suspcious people, ranked in order

JonJoe
SebMojo
QuoQuidPro

Im up for allying though, who out of the list should we kill?

why those people, specifically?

QuoProQuid
Jan 12, 2012

Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
T O P

Sitting Here posted:

vote jonjoe since he's not playing

lol. im dumb

QuoProQuid
Jan 12, 2012

Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
T O P

exmond and muffin seem town to me. the former because his reactions read as genuine and the latter because it seems unlikely that scum would backtrack after a call for a no-lynch

im most suspicious of sittinghere, t-rex, and b-mond1. my suspicions against sh started as a joke but i havent like her reactions and stuff

QuoProQuid
Jan 12, 2012

Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
T O P

Him. Reevaluating.

##vote: T-Rex

For the most substantively suspicious act.

QuoProQuid
Jan 12, 2012

Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
T O P

Rex, who is your scumbro?

QuoProQuid
Jan 12, 2012

Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
T O P

Why do you want a no lynch after the discussion above?

QuoProQuid
Jan 12, 2012

Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
T O P

On mobile. Why Exmond?

QuoProQuid
Jan 12, 2012

Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
T O P

Is there anything more than the "fishing" post?

QuoProQuid
Jan 12, 2012

Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
T O P

Can see it but am not convinced. See it as more townie not knowing what they are doing.

The follow-up defense strikes me as a little more odd, but I would rather lynch someone else.

QuoProQuid
Jan 12, 2012

Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
T O P

Exmond posted:

I give you a few scenarios

1) I am the worst scum player ever
I immediately call out sebmojo in the first post of the game and stick with it despite having no backup and it being very, very, VERY obvious. Nobody has agreed with me and nobody has suspected seb mojo

2) I am a new player playing with a group that allready knows each other and I am unironically poo poo posting to try and fit it
I unironically poo poo posting (Using clone high as a reference so its funny) in an attempt to fit in with a group that already knows each other and hangs out on IRC. i continue to stick wtih the joke (Though I waver because I am Canadian and im worried seb mojo might take it personally) since I want people to think im "Funny" and "Likeable". I'm also new so by making a hilarious post I can hopefully figure out how to play as other people post useful information.

And I will use your own words in my defence





I will let you decide!

The defensiveness here gives me pause but I don't know how much of that is new player anxiety.

QuoProQuid
Jan 12, 2012

Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
T O P

What do you think of b-minus?

QuoProQuid
Jan 12, 2012

Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
T O P

Re: b-minus1

My suspicions against b-minus were largely born out of his lurking and unsubstantive posting. He responds to other posters and seems aware of the conversations occuring, but his posts tend to focus on mechanics rather than his reads on other players.

b-minus1 posted:

Hi everyone. It's time to kill scum and chew bubblegum. And I'm all out of gum.


I would say no.

b-minus1 posted:

was there seriously discussion of a d1 no lynch option?

b-minus1 posted:

True, I tend to lurk on d1 but I am lurking more than usual. I'll put a stop to that.

b-minus1 posted:

Thank you for that calm, rational response. That definitely has swayed my decision.



It's a tactic that scum tend to rely on, because it allows them to appear engaged without actually exposing themselves or their teammates. They are never forced to defend their reads because they don't make any.

b-minus1 posted:

Exmond do you have a real reason for suspecting mojo? because im not seeing it

b-minus1 posted:

I’m with you for the most part. I wouldn’t call a second vote on a player a scum tell, especially this early in the game. However…

I don’t like your decision to add a fourth player, which spreads votes are spread even further. We now have four players each with a vote. Of course, me voting to lynch you would add a fifth player receiving votes. It’s possible that you’re scum and trying to take heat off your scum partners.

I’m going to ##T-rex for the moment, but I do not like Tranguy’s early vote for T-rex. Joke votes are one thing, but it’s time for some serious discussion. Now that T-rex is under pressure, let's see how both he and tranguy respond. They deserve the chance to defend themselves.

In the two posts where b-minus talks about reads, there is very little commitment. The first is a clarifying question that sows doubt without ever clarifying his reasoning for why he does "not see it." Depending on the direction of the town's discussion, he can claim to have been on both sides of the argument. In the latter, the vote against T-Rex is framed is "weasel words." If T-Rex flips wrong, he can claim that he was only voting to put T-Rex under pressure or because he wanted some serious discussion. It's making a lynch against T-Rex more likely without committing to it.

In closing, I've talked myself into ##vote: b-minus

QuoProQuid
Jan 12, 2012

Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
T O P

SurreptitiousMuffin posted:

Right now, I'm following QPQ's lead on this one. Not super happy about it but fingers crossed.

##vote Tyrannosaurus

you should not follow my lead without thinking through my cases because it's been forever since i last played. also, the number of new players is absolutely wreaking my ability to read people. i can't tell what actions are being taken because people don't know how to play and which are being taken because people are trying to mislead the town. there also hasn't been a ton of discussion, which means that there aren't a lot of facts to back up cases.

My top three lynch targets today would probably be:
1.) b-minus
2.) T-Rex
3.) sitting here

QuoProQuid
Jan 12, 2012

Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
T O P

i'd advise everyone to hold for mod clarification. i made my post without reading the most recent posts in the thread, which is generally a no-no.

QuoProQuid
Jan 12, 2012

Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
T O P

minus, claim your role

QuoProQuid
Jan 12, 2012

Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
T O P

Please, God, do not speculate about other people's roles. Do not claim your role unless you are about to be lynched.

b-minus, what are you?

QuoProQuid
Jan 12, 2012

Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
T O P

my opinion on thranguy right now is ¯\_(ツ)_/¯. i need some time to think about him.

if anyone has some real good reads, i would drop them now before someone hammers.

QuoProQuid
Jan 12, 2012

Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
T O P

I'd drop that silver hammer down upon his head. Bang, bang Muffin's silver hammer to make sure that he is dead.

QuoProQuid
Jan 12, 2012

Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
T O P

Would prefer a hammer now to prevent any possible error. No one is going to post a case in the next 3 minutes.

QuoProQuid
Jan 12, 2012

Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
T O P

tbqh, i assumed seb was scum after yesterday's flip.

did not think exmond was scum, but his latest posts don't make me feel great.

idk. need to reread.

need to hear more from thran

QuoProQuid
Jan 12, 2012

Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
T O P

what confuses me is that i did not see exmond as "threat numero one" until he posted a preemptive defense of himself for activities that didn't seem that suspicious

QuoProQuid
Jan 12, 2012

Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
T O P

it is like a character on murder on the orient express screaming, "YEP, DEFINITELY HAVEN'T MURDERED ANYONE!" before getting interviewed by poirot

QuoProQuid
Jan 12, 2012

Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
T O P


tell me what you think of the game, friend

anyone look suspicious atm?

QuoProQuid
Jan 12, 2012

Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
T O P

Absolutely not.

##vote: T-Rex

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QuoProQuid
Jan 12, 2012

Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
T O P

There is no guarantee of there being a cop or a doctor

If there is a cop, there is no guarantee that he/she has useful information

If someone claims cop, there is no reason to trust them because scum could easily fake a claim

The set-up is built to stop an easy mass claim scenario

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