Illinois Politics: Great Plains Khanate Megathread

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Ringo Star Get: Sep 18, 2006; JUST FUCKING TAKE OFF ALREADY, SHIT

Willa Rogers posted:

Illinois has record covid hospitalizations & ICU usage greater than the first two rounds. From the Trib tracker today:

At my job we are going to be pushing back classes two weeks. We want to go remote but our governing body is the IL Sec of State and guess what! They closed for two weeks due to Covid, but told us to still email and call them since they�ll be �working from home�. They haven�t answered our calls or emails since Dec 29.

Lots of coworkers are out with Covid and we are barely keeping it together.

# ? Jan 13, 2022 21:52

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# ? Apr 26, 2024 13:40

Bird in a Blender: Nov 17, 2005; It's amazing what they can do with computers these days.

Ringo Star Get posted:

At my job we are going to be pushing back classes two weeks. We want to go remote but our governing body is the IL Sec of State and guess what! They closed for two weeks due to Covid, but told us to still email and call them since they�ll be �working from home�. They haven�t answered our calls or emails since Dec 29.

Lots of coworkers are out with Covid and we are barely keeping it together.

University of Illinois system? My wife is getting her masters and they were told classes would be online until 1/24 when they go in-person. They did all last year online, and now they want to push everyone to in-person while the stat is in the middle of the worst COVID spike yet. Good work guys.

# ? Jan 13, 2022 22:48

Sarcastro: Dec 28, 2000; Elite member of the Grammar Nazi Squad that

Update: the chief judge took Judge Adrian's criminal docket away from him, which is good, although hopefully only just a start:

https://www.wgem.com/2022/01/14/chief-judge-takes-adrian-off-bench-criminal-matters/

quote:

Chief Judge of the 8th Judicial Circuit Frank McCartney filed an administrative order with the Adams County Circuit removing embattled Judge Robert Adrian from handling criminal cases.

The order reassigns Adrian to hear small claims, probate, civil cases and other legal matters.

I think what he did (and then his subsequent tantrum) warrant full removal from the bench, but hey, baby steps.

# ? Jan 14, 2022 16:18

HootTheOwl: May 13, 2012; Hootin and shootin

Housing prices are even worse this year than last. I'm both buying at the worst time and begging for a collapse that's also going to ruin me.

# ? Jan 14, 2022 18:52

Djarum: Apr 1, 2004; by vyelkin

HootTheOwl posted:

Housing prices are even worse this year than last. I'm both buying at the worst time and begging for a collapse that's also going to ruin me.

Well the economy is going to crash, the question is when. The Feds low interest rates vs inflation is a negative interest rate, the student debt bubble, the derivative bubble, the effects from COVID; tons of people out of work, the supply chain busted likely for good and you aren't even looking at the effects that it is has on a ton of industries from death/burn out. The medical and education sectors are going to be crippled for decades going forward from the losses.

A big reason why housing is going crazy is the wealthy is buying up real estate to prepare for oncoming crash.

# ? Jan 14, 2022 19:02

xzzy: Mar 5, 2009

Don't forget inflation is the highest it's been in 40 years. It's not bad, it's REAL bad.

# ? Jan 14, 2022 19:03

Oracle: Oct 9, 2004

Djarum posted:

Well the economy is going to crash, the question is when. The Feds low interest rates vs inflation is a negative interest rate, the student debt bubble, the derivative bubble, the effects from COVID; tons of people out of work, the supply chain busted likely for good and you aren't even looking at the effects that it is has on a ton of industries from death/burn out. The medical and education sectors are going to be crippled for decades going forward from the losses.

A big reason why housing is going crazy is the wealthy is buying up real estate to prepare for oncoming crash.

I don't think its 'the wealthy' so much as it is investment fund dollars chasing so few opportunities they've decided to go all in on property. Now let's see if they're going to attempt a speed run of 2008 and try to slice dice and repackage/resell 'pieces' of the mortgages again...

# ? Jan 14, 2022 19:12

Willa Rogers: Mar 11, 2005

I don't think the slicing-and-dicing ever really stopped, did it?

# ? Jan 14, 2022 19:15

Oracle: Oct 9, 2004

Willa Rogers posted:

I don't think the slicing-and-dicing ever really stopped, did it?

Uh...

quote:

Mortgage-Backed Securities Today

Mortgage-backed securities are still bought and sold today. There is a market for them again simply because people generally pay their mortgages if they can. The Fed still owns a huge chunk of the market for MBSs, but it is gradually selling off its holdings.

Even CDOs have returned after falling out of favor for a few years post-crisis. The assumption is that Wall Street has learned its lesson and will question the value of MBSs rather than heedlessly buying them. Time will tell.

LOL. lmao.

# ? Jan 14, 2022 19:22

Badger of Basra: Jul 26, 2007

Djarum posted:

Well the economy is going to crash, the question is when. The Feds low interest rates vs inflation is a negative interest rate, the student debt bubble, the derivative bubble, the effects from COVID; tons of people out of work, the supply chain busted likely for good and you aren't even looking at the effects that it is has on a ton of industries from death/burn out. The medical and education sectors are going to be crippled for decades going forward from the losses.

A big reason why housing is going crazy is the wealthy is buying up real estate to prepare for oncoming crash.

The stock market is pretty high right now I don�t think rich people are taking money out to buy up random houses. Covid pushed a lot more people into the real estate market who hadn�t been there before. People keep talking about blackrock but they are simply not buying that many houses in the grand scheme of things. Zillow started selling all the ones they bought for a loss.

# ? Jan 14, 2022 19:23

Lammasu: May 8, 2019; lawful Good Monster

So against my advice my Dad and his brother are getting FOID cards. Thing is for some reason even though he entered all the info from his DL it said it couldn't verify his ID. Any ideas as to what went wrong?

# ? Jan 14, 2022 19:33

limp_cheese: Sep 10, 2007; Nothing to see here. Move along.

Lammasu posted:

So against my advice my Dad and his brother are getting FOID cards.

I have no intention of starting a gun rights debate, just wondering if there is something about the process I should know about since I've had my card for years.

# ? Jan 14, 2022 20:04

Djarum: Apr 1, 2004; by vyelkin

Oracle posted:

I don't think its 'the wealthy' so much as it is investment fund dollars chasing so few opportunities they've decided to go all in on property. Now let's see if they're going to attempt a speed run of 2008 and try to slice dice and repackage/resell 'pieces' of the mortgages again...

Badger of Basra posted:

The stock market is pretty high right now I don�t think rich people are taking money out to buy up random houses. Covid pushed a lot more people into the real estate market who hadn�t been there before. People keep talking about blackrock but they are simply not buying that many houses in the grand scheme of things. Zillow started selling all the ones they bought for a loss.

Well the current hot idea is that they are buying up SFH and other desirable property to turn it into rental. You got a bunch of money to invest you can buy up property in desirable areas and then rent it out. The plan is to make the SFH as expensive/hard to buy as apartments are in cities. You put a lovely property management company in charge of day to day and continue to squeeze the population dry even more.

Unless things change rapidly and soon the idea of a majority of people ever actually owning a piece of property will be like the horse drawn carriage.

# ? Jan 14, 2022 20:42

The X-man cometh: Nov 1, 2009

Wasn't the Fed buying MBS as part of the recovery plan? That would keep mortgage rates low, and the Fed doesn't care if those loans go bad.

# ? Jan 14, 2022 23:45

HootTheOwl: May 13, 2012; Hootin and shootin

I got a survey call last night and they used it to tell me all these good things about Sean Casten and bad things about Marie Newman. Except the good things were bad and the bad things were good.
(well, except her bribing a rival)

"What's your race?"
"Jewish"
...later...
"Marie Newman voted against Israel and supporting Jews, how terrible was that?"
"Strongly Supportive to vote for her"

# ? Jan 18, 2022 15:15

dwarf74: Sep 2, 2012; Buglord

Hey IL Goons!

I'm serving as treasurer for a campaign again, since apparently I love spreadsheets and paperwork. Unlike my last race (which was small and local and ended up uncontested), this is promising to be a lot more competitive. Like, a lot.

I'm working with an amazing woman, Karla Bailey-Smith, who's running for State Representative for the newly competitive 91st District, running from Bloomington/Normal to Peoria along I-74.

She's an awesome, energetic, progressive, queer woman with a solid union and labor history. And I just thought I'd badger you goons to support her in the primary, particularly if you are in the new district.

https://www.karla4il.org/about-5

# ? Jan 18, 2022 23:48

Bizarro Kanyon: Jan 3, 2007; Something Awful, so easy even a spaceman can do it!

Looks like Bailey is just shifting all of his money to other Eastern Bloc members, especially Chris Miller.

I guess he is using the money to try and get Mary Miller to get Trump to endorse him.

https://capitolfax.com/2022/01/19/b...-net-burn-rate/

quote:

Anyway, Restore Illinois collected $319,800 from three Eastern Bloc Members last quarter: $200K from Sen. Darren Bailey in October, $59,900 from Rep. Blaine Wilhour in November and $59,900 from Rep. Adam Niemerg in December. The PAC refunded $150,100 to Bailey a week after he made his contribution because, by law, it can only accept $59,900 from a candidate committee. Oops.

Almost all of the $179,700 Restore Illinois collected from those three members was then transferred to Rep. Miller shortly after each of the three contributions were received. Click here.

* Here�s where it gets kinda interesting. Neither Rep. Wilhour nor Rep. Niemerg had enough money in their accounts to make those $59,900 contributions to Restore Illinois.

Rep. Wilhour started the quarter with $45.7K in the bank. But then he reported a $59.9K check from Bailey on November 17, and Restore Illinois reported a $59.9K check from Wilhour the very same day.

Same with Rep. Niemerg, who started the fourth quarter with just $23,380.40 in the bank. Bailey maxed out to Niemerg with $59,900 that was reported on December 3rd, and Restore Illinois reported its $59.9K contribution from Niemerg on December 22nd.

So, essentially it appears as though Bailey was able to get $169,800 to his ally Rep. Chris Miller via a complicated series of maneuvers through other campaign accounts. It�s a mechanism that might�ve made Mike Madigan proud.

Except, they didn�t have to do it this way. Rep. Miller busted the caps on his race on November 22nd with a $100,001 contribution to himself. Bailey could�ve just written Miller a check for whatever he wanted.

Seems like a lot of work for nothing.

* Now, take out the refund from Restore Illinois and Bailey raised a net $349K. Of that, he contributed a net $230K to Restore Illinois and Eastern Bloc Reps. Wilhour, Niemerg and Dan Caulkins, or 66 percent of what he took in. You gotta wonder what all those folks who believe so strongly in Bailey�s message might think of him spending two-thirds of their money not on his �grass roots movement,� but on his pals� races.

I�ve asked the Bailey campaign for comment.

* Meanwhile, Bailey spent about $410K on consultants and their services, staff, etc.

All of his spending and transfers gave Bailey a net burn rate of 183 percent by my calculations.

Hope he doesn�t try to run the state like that.

# ? Jan 20, 2022 01:33

Badger of Basra: Jul 26, 2007

https://twitter.com/metzgov/status/1485698960593403909?s=20

This whole story is so weird. They even had a signed agreement saying if he didn�t run she would give him a job. Why would you write that down!

# ? Jan 24, 2022 20:51

The X-man cometh: Nov 1, 2009

Badger of Basra posted:

This whole story is so weird. They even had a signed agreement saying if he didn’t run she would give him a job. Why would you write that down!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pBdGOrcUEg8

# ? Jan 25, 2022 02:25

Dog Faced JoJo: Oct 15, 2004; Woof Woof

I was originally angry they zoned her out in favor of Casten. Now not so much

# ? Jan 25, 2022 02:34

brugroffil: Nov 30, 2015

to my rep but also infinitely less meaningful than the routine corruption Congress does

e: Casten still sucks

# ? Jan 25, 2022 02:35

Niwrad: Jul 1, 2008

The X-man cometh posted:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pBdGOrcUEg8

I knew what this was before clicking on it.

# ? Jan 25, 2022 05:42

Deathlove: Feb 20, 2003; Pillbug

I've been seeing a lot of Sullivan for governor signs on my drive to work, I assume this guy has Zero Chance outside of just being able to have a lot of money* from being a VC?

* but not a lot of money compared to Pritzker

# ? Jan 25, 2022 17:46

Oracle: Oct 9, 2004

Deathlove posted:

I've been seeing a lot of Sullivan for governor signs on my drive to work, I assume this guy has Zero Chance outside of just being able to have a lot of money* from being a VC?

* but not a lot of money compared to Pritzker

Not likely. I'm guessing you drive through some exurbs/rural areas.

# ? Jan 25, 2022 18:54

Bizarro Kanyon: Jan 3, 2007; Something Awful, so easy even a spaceman can do it!

Oracle posted:

Not likely. I'm guessing you drive through some exurbs/rural areas.

Rural areas seem to have more Bailey signs to me.

# ? Jan 25, 2022 19:02

Deathlove: Feb 20, 2003; Pillbug

Oracle posted:

Not likely. I'm guessing you drive through some exurbs/rural areas.

Wheaton to the west side down Roosevelt! As exurban as it gets.

# ? Jan 25, 2022 19:11

Oracle: Oct 9, 2004

Bizarro Kanyon posted:

Rural areas seem to have more Bailey signs to me.

Good point.

God that dude is a fuckin' loon.

# ? Jan 25, 2022 19:41

Badger of Basra: Jul 26, 2007

Whether or not Sullivan can beat Pritzker seems irrelevant since there�s no way he wins the primary

# ? Jan 25, 2022 20:26

Bizarro Kanyon: Jan 3, 2007; Something Awful, so easy even a spaceman can do it!

Badger of Basra posted:

Whether or not Sullivan can beat Pritzker seems irrelevant since there�s no way he wins the primary

Yeah. Sullivan is going to go down in flames.

It will either be Irving (the vessel for Ken Griffin) or Bailey. It will get ugly pretty quickly. Does Illinois do LT Governor debates in the primary? I would love to see Bailey�s LT in a debate.

# ? Jan 25, 2022 21:01

The X-man cometh: Nov 1, 2009

Irving's going to go down because a black guy backed by a billionaire won't appeal at all to the MAGA/Q people

# ? Jan 25, 2022 23:01

Oracle: Oct 9, 2004

The X-man cometh posted:

Irving's going to go down because a black guy backed by a billionaire won't appeal at all to the MAGA/Q people

He's the 'look see we're not racist THEY'RE the REAL racists because they won't vote for a black Republican' candidate.

# ? Jan 25, 2022 23:40

The X-man cometh: Nov 1, 2009

After Trump, they're openly racist.

# ? Jan 25, 2022 23:56

Dexo: Aug 15, 2009; A city that was to live by night after the wilderness had passed. A city that was to forge out of steel and blood-red neon its own peculiar wilderness.

https://twitter.com/BlockClubCHI/status/1486036342404435975

lol

# ? Jan 26, 2022 02:14

Dog Faced JoJo: Oct 15, 2004; Woof Woof

Oracle posted:

He's the 'look see we're not racist THEY'RE the REAL racists because they won't vote for a black Republican' candidate.

The Alan Keyes Gambit.

# ? Jan 26, 2022 02:37

Piell: Sep 3, 2006; Grey Worm's Ken doll-like groin throbbed with the anticipatory pleasure that only a slightly warm and moist piece of lemoncake could offer; Young Orc

Dog Faced JoJo posted:

The Alan Keyes Gambit.

And it will fail because they don't want to vote for a black guy, they want to ~~be racist~~ ~~turn people into dinosaurs~~ just be able to say that they would vote for a black guy, not actually do it

# ? Jan 26, 2022 03:59

The X-man cometh: Nov 1, 2009

Dog Faced JoJo posted:

The Alan Keyes Gambit.

Alan Keyes didn't win a primary, he was appointed the nominee after Seven of Nine's husband was exposed as a sex pest.

# ? Jan 26, 2022 07:30

borkencode: Nov 10, 2004

The X-man cometh posted:

Alan Keyes didn't win a primary, he was appointed the nominee after Seven of Nine's husband was exposed as a sex pest.

Always blows my mind that a direct causal chain can be followed from a Star Trek series having bad ratings to Donald Trump becoming president.

# ? Jan 26, 2022 07:57

Bird in a Blender: Nov 17, 2005; It's amazing what they can do with computers these days.

Dexo posted:

https://twitter.com/BlockClubCHI/status/1486036342404435975

lol

I'm not sure what's funny about this exactly, seems like this is a good thing?

# ? Jan 26, 2022 13:41

Jows: May 8, 2002

borkencode posted:

Always blows my mind that a direct causal chain can be followed from a Star Trek series having bad ratings to Donald Trump becoming president.

Bad ratings? I thought dude just liked taking her to sex clubs and she wanted no part. Were the sex clubs due to low ratings? Or the divorce?

# ? Jan 26, 2022 15:03

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# ? Apr 26, 2024 13:40

Bird in a Blender: Nov 17, 2005; It's amazing what they can do with computers these days.

It's all kind of BS anyway. Obama was very likely winning the senate race in 2004 even if Ryan was still his opponent. Obama was beating Ryan in the polls before all the stuff from court came out.

# ? Jan 26, 2022 15:27

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