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Bigass Moth
Mar 6, 2004

I joined the #RXT REVOLUTION.

he knows...


Iím not sure shat Laurenís strategy of giving up all power was exactly.

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Nihonniboku
Aug 11, 2004

YOU CAN FLY!!!

None of these people know how to strategize at all. It's a scramble every week.

Also, the idols are far too easy to find.

And Ben was a jerk to Chrissy. She asked him what happened, he was completely dismissive of her, and then acted incredulously when she didn't want to deal with him.

But it doesn't matter, because alliances will all shift again next week.

mancalamania
Oct 23, 2008


That reward challenge was really something else. It wouldn't have been so bad if they were upfront about it being a crapshoot. Instead, Jeff pumps them up with "another brand new Survivor challenge!!!!" and then explains it in a confusing way that implies there's some strategy of being on the same page with your loved one. Why didn't they lean into it and just have Jeff say "and, for the first time in Survivor history, the Survivor Gods will decide who wins their loved one."

Anyway, besides that, the episode was fantastic. It's a shame to lose Lauren, but wow what a way to go out. Really excited to hear Lauren's exit interview: was the advantage really back at camp? Did she consider throwing an extra vote someone's way in case Ben had an idol? What was she thinking giving half of the idol to Mike? Did anyone have any idea Ben had the idol?

blue squares
Sep 28, 2007


Soiled Meat

lmao Lauren what an idiotic downfall

SLICK GOKU BABY
Jun 12, 2001

A Little Known FACT: Burger King's Bacon King is superior to the Baconator.


I'm curious if Ben is managing to poison the jury against himself even though he hits all the major check marks to be a winner?

Spergatory
Oct 28, 2012


Man, this season is a special kind of trainwreck. Almost everyone out there is actively bad at Survivor in some way or another. It's amazing to me that at the moment, the person that strikes me as the smartest one out there is the one just kind of hanging back and not doing much of anything.

Nihonniboku
Aug 11, 2004

YOU CAN FLY!!!

SLICK GOKU BABY posted:

I'm curious if Ben is managing to poison the jury against himself even though he hits all the major check marks to be a winner?

He certainly has managed to burn each and every single person there, even though the producers keep on trying to give him the winner's edit.

It all depends on how things are going back at Ponderosa. Are people talking about great moves, or are they bitter against the people who voted them all out, a la the jury towards Kass.

Propaganda Machine
Jan 2, 2005

Truthiness!

This edit feels like Dirty 30 Mike, but less so. For Ben, obviously. He took his heel turn later in the season, and this is a more ferocious group. At this point I do agree, however, that this is a season stacked with adorably inept dumb-dumbs trying their hardest to play. It worked out eventually.

I take back everything good I've said about this-season-Mike. Holy gently caress what a moron. He voted for Ben and pulled that bullshit for TV time

Raxivace
Sep 9, 2014



As bad of a plan as Lauren giving half of her idol to Dr. Mike was, I can't believe that it still almost worked.

Raxivace fucked around with this message at Dec 7, 2017 around 08:26

CODChimera
Jan 29, 2009


That was pretty good, well except for the challenge that was just...really strange.

Part of me wants Ben to make it to the end just so we get more of him GGing people he's destroyed.

I'd probably have to rewatch that episode to figure out what Lauren was up to.

Rarity
Oct 21, 2010

From Montreal to Memphis
Parlez-vous francais?


Ahahaha, Mike is the best

Vernacular
Nov 29, 2004



Holy poo poo, this season went from mundane to loving amazing in, what, 3 episodes?

Dr. Mike owns, even if all his success has more or less been gifted to him by other players making mistakes. Maybe he wins at this point tho idk. He's gonna have a ton of friends on the jury. Either way, throwing the idol in the fire was The Best.

Agreed that Ben is starting to look a little Mike Holloway-ish, though in contrast he's actively destroying trust each episode and it might lead to a bitter jury, whereas Mike at least earned respect by going on that insane immunity run. It would be surprising to see him get to the end, but if he does he probably wins, right?

ApplesandOranges
Jun 22, 2012

He will know I am near when he hears the screams of my enemies.

Mike is a really, really bad player though. Every week he hangs on by other people's ineptitude and he keeps thinking he's on top when in reality people just use him for a number.

Ben's doing well, but I don't think he's Holloway material. Ben has not won a single immunity, so unless there's a challenge which both Ashley and Chrissy are terrible at, he can't immunity his way to the finale. And at this stage he has to be public enemy no.1; Ryan and Chrissy know they don't want to sit next to him. Ashley and Devon know they don't want to sit next to him. Mike will take anything he can get, but he's powerless.

Spergatory
Oct 28, 2012


This jury is aching to see Ben get voted out. If he makes it to the end, they're probably going to give him the money just to say "I told you so, I loving told you to get rid of him." He's become almost David Wright-like in that whoever gets credit for taking him out is going to gain so much jury clout that it can overcome almost anything else the jury feels, so believe it or not, Chrissy is back in contention.

Mike is an absolute dumpster fire of a Survivor player and him winning would be an oddly fitting end to this dumpster fire season.

ApplesandOranges
Jun 22, 2012

He will know I am near when he hears the screams of my enemies.

I dunno, I mean they tried to get rid of him, he just happened to have an idol and you can't help that. So it's not a David case where Ken/Hannah waited way too long to pull the trigger on him.

It sounds crazy but I think Ashley is back in winner contention. Except that her game has been so outwardly quiet other than winning immunity that I think the only way she wins might be if she's sitting next to Ryan and Mike. And even then Mike might get too many Healer votes.

Honestly it shouldn't be hard to see Ben go; nobody's going to get rid of Ashley just yet and pretty sure she outlasts him in immunity challenges. So even if Ben advantages his way to like F4, she just wins immunity and they laser fire him out.

Generic American
Mar 15, 2012

I love my Peng


Man, it was really weird to spend the whole episode thinking that Chrissy was going to be the idiot and ruin the plan out of spite, but then it turned out to be MIKE who needed to talk her into making the dumbest move.

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

Watching you sleep.

Butt first, let's
check the feeds.


Boy, that was messy.

I guess I see what Lauren was thinking. Buy trust with Mike and the most the extra vote could do would be to make it a tie. But she should have just gone "gently caress it, I'm using the idol tonight" and made the classic mistake of trying to preserve your powers for later in the game when you have every reason to need them now.

Mike's a moron, but he's an entertaining one. I find it annoying that he really seems to think he's playing an awesome game, but whatever. At this stage this season is just a bunch of jesters we're laughing at and he's a good one.

The Surfers are either coasting to the end or getting taken out because they're the only ones not burning everyone and causing chaos.

Ben carpet bombed his game but in all fairness, he wasn't wrong that his alliance was thinking of turning on him. He handles this stuff terribly socially but he makes the right technical moves. He's gonna have to dance to survive or go on an immunity run but if he does he's got this in the bag, it seems. I'd say he has no chance but with this crew? I have no idea what they'll do next.

This season's going to end with Ben and Chrissy in the finale. I won't be able to take the concentrated smug of that, but it will be worth it for a really petty reaction from Chrissy to losing.

ApplesandOranges
Jun 22, 2012

He will know I am near when he hears the screams of my enemies.

The one move that I'm not sure why Lauren didn't think of would be to give Mike a fake seashell. There are hundreds of them out there and it's not like he would have memorized the exact one she had.

Propaganda Machine
Jan 2, 2005

Truthiness!

I remain firmly unconvinced that Chrissy has any path to victory. If she takes Ben out, the Jurors will rather give Ryan the credit. If he gets booted at F4, the jurors (sans Ryan) will give the money to literally anybody but her.

Desi is Juror #1, and is on record loving hating Chrissy, and we have no reason to believe that the other jurors aren't basically in agreement.

My single solace right now, with this ridiculously fun cast, is that Chrissy cannot win. The burden of proof lies on those who think she has a snowball's chance in hell, which she does not.

Nihonniboku
Aug 11, 2004

YOU CAN FLY!!!

ApplesandOranges posted:

The one move that I'm not sure why Lauren didn't think of would be to give Mike a fake seashell. There are hundreds of them out there and it's not like he would have memorized the exact one she had.

I suspect that's what Mike was thinking. Who the hell would fall for a fake immunity idol that was just a seashell? Never since the stick has an immunity idol looked so stupid and obviously fake. Except it was real. So I wouldn't be surprised if Mike thought he was just calling Lauren's bluff by throwing this "idol" in the fire, not realizing that it actually was an idol.

Zesty
Jan 17, 2012



Tortured By Flan

Propaganda Machine posted:

I remain firmly unconvinced that Chrissy has any path to victory. If she takes Ben out, the Jurors will rather give Ryan the credit. If he gets booted at F4, the jurors (sans Ryan) will give the money to literally anybody but her.

Desi is Juror #1, and is on record loving hating Chrissy, and we have no reason to believe that the other jurors aren't basically in agreement.

My single solace right now, with this ridiculously fun cast, is that Chrissy cannot win. The burden of proof lies on those who think she has a snowball's chance in hell, which she does not.

Yeah... I don't see the women doing particularly well in this group. My win order is:

Ben
Devon
Ryan
Mike
Chrissy
Ashley

Spergatory
Oct 28, 2012


It's worth noting that Devon is still the only person whose name has not been written down. I'm pretty sure that guy could publicly execute someone in broad daylight and everyone would just look at him like "oh, Devon, you're such a cut up."

blue squares
Sep 28, 2007


Soiled Meat

ApplesandOranges posted:

The one move that I'm not sure why Lauren didn't think of would be to give Mike a fake seashell. There are hundreds of them out there and it's not like he would have memorized the exact one she had.

Or for Mike to throw a fake seashell into the fire, then go find the leather strap

Zesty
Jan 17, 2012



Tortured By Flan

Spergatory posted:

It's worth noting that Devon is still the only person whose name has not been written down. I'm pretty sure that guy could publicly execute someone in broad daylight and everyone would just look at him like "oh, Devon, you're such a cut up."

Someoneís name being written down in the past doesnít have any bearing on win chance.

Fast Luck
Feb 2, 1988



Kind of funny how not just did Lauren give half the idol away, but that it was like a driveby giveaway. She walks by a random guy and is like "hey here's the idol" and then he says "uhh thanks?" and she shuffles on off. I mean, it's a pretty bad move to begin with, but if you're going to try to win Mike's trust with it, that oughta be done at the end of a long strategic discussion, right? How it's you and him together and here's who you'll vote tonight and here's the path to the end, and so on?

Also everyone has called out the stupid rear end loved ones challenge, but no one has yet called the producers on the "when you're at the challenge, pick up a seashell sitting right in front of you." What a pale imitation of previous mid-challenge idol grab set ups.

ApplesandOranges posted:

Mike is a really, really bad player though. Every week he hangs on by other people's ineptitude and he keeps thinking he's on top when in reality people just use him for a number.
I thought he played this one pretty well, where when Chrissy was waffling on voting out Lauren, he was the leak that blew things open. Obviously throwing Lauren's shell into the fire was a showboat move, but one that likely buys him favor with the jury and lets the remaining players try to keep Lauren in the game and take out Ben. The editors (annoyingly) didn't show us what led to everyone's votes going on Ben, but I'm thinking it might be because Ryan and Chrissy couldn't get Mike to come around. Might take a rewatch but I'm pretty sure I saw Ryan and Chrissy saying "Lauren" but that we didn't see the same from Mike.

Codependent Poster posted:

Reach in the fire and grab it!
haha that was one of my first reactions too, but she gave that idol piece to Mike so it belongs to him unless he willingly hands it over, right? Like even if he didn't throw it in the fire, but just tossed it into the dirt, people can't take it?

xbilkis posted:

Chrissy being a terrible loser is so obnoxious that it loops around to great TV. It also has the benefit of making whoever she's fighting with inherently likable

What he did was INHUMAN
What's also funny about this is how she apparently told Ali and Desi all kinds of things like, "I can't wait to see you run into your sister's arms at the family visit!" right before voting them out. That being said, there's gotta be a better way to handle dropping a blindside on her than just stonewalling her back at camp.

Spergatory
Oct 28, 2012


Zesty posted:

Someone’s name being written down in the past doesn’t have any bearing on win chance.

I know. I just think it's funny that he's somehow completely avoided being on everyone's threat radar despite being a universally beloved bronze Adonis.

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

you're a flower. you're also a rainbow and a river. you are the manifestation of all perfection and i want to i don't fucking know, but you are fucking perfect


I enjoyed last night's episode after the terrible loved ones stuff was out of the way. Fortunately I was watching on a delay so I was able to just skip most of it.

I have no idea what Lauren was thinking throughout a lot of that episode, but she definitely deserved to go home. I'm glad she went out gracefully. I could see her coming back in a returnees season, and might be the only one in this whole cast who would be able to keep up (idol idiocy aside).

It is hard to judge though because this cast is not very good at the game. But that also makes for some pretty drat entertaining television the last few weeks! I'm still hopeful that Devon makes it to the end. I think he could beat Ben if they both make it to FTC, though it would be close.

If Lauren hadn't thrown her idol away and played it, what happens if all votes are cancelled? Do they just completely revote with everyone that played an idol + II being immune? That would have been a fun scramble.

ApplesandOranges
Jun 22, 2012

He will know I am near when he hears the screams of my enemies.

Looking at the current jury members, it's kinda hard to tell which way they collectively would swing.

Desi would vote anyone but Chrissy. I imagine she'd go Mike first, and then I could see her voting Ashley or Devon just because they spent some time together after the swap.
Cole.... I dunno. He could vote Mike too, but I imagine his vote is pretty up in the air. I don't think he'd vote Ben, so of the non-Healers left he'd probably vote Devon.
JP is such a mystery. I'd guess that he votes Ryan or Chrissy, maybe Ashley.
Joe is waiting for big moves, so just from what he's seen he'd most likely vote Ben. But I could see him sending a vote towards Mike or Devon.
Lauren would likely vote for Devon. Failing that, either Ashley or Ben. Probably Ben since I could see her respecting that nice idol play. I don't think she'll be voting Mike anytime soon.

As for who's left:

Ryan and Chrissy would probably vote for each other if possible. I'm not sure if Ryan can swallow his pride to vote for Devon, but if he can't he'd probably vote Ben.
Chrissy hates Ben so no way he's getting her vote. I think she'd actually vote Ashley unless Devon can argue well enough.
Devon would vote for Ben. Maybe Ashley otherwise.
Ashley... I'm not sure if she'd vote for Ben or Devon first. Probably Ben, but it'd be close.
Ben would probably vote Devon. I'm not sure who else he'd vote for - I could actually see him voting for Ryan or Chrissy since he probably thinks Ashley/Mike just haven't done enough.
Mike would very likely vote Ben. Failing that, Devon. Unless both those options are exhausted I don't see him voting anyone else.

So Devon is the biggest jury threat, but Ben, Mike and even Ashley could generate votes. I can't see Ryan/Chrissy getting enough momentum to get a victory outside of the stray JP vote.

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

Watching you sleep.

Butt first, let's
check the feeds.


Fast Luck posted:

Kind of funny how not just did Lauren give half the idol away, but that it was like a driveby giveaway. She walks by a random guy and is like "hey here's the idol" and then he says "uhh thanks?" and she shuffles on off. I mean, it's a pretty bad move to begin with, but if you're going to try to win Mike's trust with it, that oughta be done at the end of a long strategic discussion, right? How it's you and him together and here's who you'll vote tonight and here's the path to the end, and so on?
I can only imagine there was a previous discussion where she told Mike that she'd give a good faith gesture by giving her part of the idol or something and that was just the "let me go get it... ok, I got it, here" end of it. It sort of feels like something that fell between the cracks of a really chaotic and busy episode and the thing we've already mentioned that Mike and a lot of this cast like Lauren don't seem super good at explaining their games to the cameras.

Fast Luck posted:

What's also funny about this is how she apparently told Ali and Desi all kinds of things like, "I can't wait to see you run into your sister's arms at the family visit!" right before voting them out. That being said, there's gotta be a better way to handle dropping a blindside on her than just stonewalling her back at camp.
Ben definitely mishandled that unless we just missed an extended part where he tried to explain it and she wouldn't listen. Which is plausible but I doubt it since it seems entirely within character for Ben to just go "I don't like you and I'm not dealing with you anymore" as he has with Cole, Joe, and Mike. I mean, he was right. Chrissy wasn't going to hear anything that wasn't "You wronged me! You are so inhuman!" but Ben should have probably tried to justify that he just needed to keep them in the dark because of the idol or something. It probably wouldn't have changed anything with Chrissy but it would have been a better look for him.

Still, Chrissy manages to be an obnoxious enough foil that its just kind of fun to see Ben taunt her.

Bigass Moth
Mar 6, 2004

I joined the #RXT REVOLUTION.

he knows...


I still can't believe Lauren offered up that she didn't have the extra vote advantage with her at tribal. Why would you not bring that?

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

Watching you sleep.

Butt first, let's
check the feeds.


In fairness, it really wouldn't have helped, would it? Best case scenario she uses it to tie the vote with Ben but then on the second vote she goes home 3-2.

I guess she could have said "Look, I'll burn this tonight and vote out Ben." But best case there she still goes home with 1 vote thanks to Ben's idol.

Of course all of this is secondary to the fact that she should have just kept and played her idol. The only rational excuse I can figure out for that is she might have worried it would lose her Ashley and Devon as she was risking exposing them to a vote? But at F7 you can play that kind of selfish risk, especially since its not really something of your own design and they don't seem like irrational/petty actors.

Its just not a very well played season.

Trillhouse
Dec 31, 2000


She could have put both votes on Crissy (or any other person not Ben) and stayed in the game.

SLICK GOKU BABY
Jun 12, 2001

A Little Known FACT: Burger King's Bacon King is superior to the Baconator.


Indeed, how could someone that went home with 1 vote possibly have used 2 votes to stay in the game?

Fast Luck
Feb 2, 1988



She wouldn't have used it though because they weren't playing around a potential Ben idol at all.

xbilkis
Apr 11, 2005

god qb
me
jay hova


The best case I could make for Lauren is that, based on how the rest of the season has gone, if Ben had an idol there's no reason to expect someone else wouldn't have found out about it before it got played.

Other than Ben, nobody else in this cast seems capable of keeping a secret

sportsgenius86
Jun 17, 2008

THE STREAK IS OVER


Mike actually seems to get himself into decent positions and then routinely shits all of that away by being a dingus at tribal. It's quite amazing.

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

Watching you sleep.

Butt first, let's
check the feeds.


The idea of splitting the vote in that situation seems crazy to me. If she put 2 votes on Chrissy she could have ended up going home even if Mike went with her.

I guess she could have used the second vote to throw on Chrissy or someone as a safety net, but that means she's thinking about Ben having an idol which clearly she wasn't. And it still brings her back to the problem where if its her vs Chrissy on a second vote she's done.

All these very 4D chess scenarios really seem very secondary to the fact that she had an idol and could have played it to be safe.

xbilkis posted:

The best case I could make for Lauren is that, based on how the rest of the season has gone, if Ben had an idol there's no reason to expect someone else wouldn't have found out about it before it got played.

Other than Ben, nobody else in this cast seems capable of keeping a secret

Yeah, it stands to reason that Lauren assumed that if Ben had an idol he would have come clean about it when she and Devon came clean on their information or way before that when she told him about her second vote. Obviously that's dumb and gullible, especially since she was plotting betraying him. Or that Ben had just got done playing Ryan and Chrissy. But presumably she made that decision to trust Ben back when she trusted him, internalized the expectation of reciprocity, and it became a blind spot.

I think Ali and Jessica both actually held onto their secrets.

sportsgenius86 posted:

Mike actually seems to get himself into decent positions and then routinely shits all of that away by being a dingus at tribal. It's quite amazing.

He's obviously got a reasonable head for strategy, seems socially adjusted, and gets the game. He just seems a little too invested in "I'M PLAYING SURVIVOR!" so he's constantly trying to make a big move or put on a show.

STAC Goat fucked around with this message at Dec 7, 2017 around 19:16

Fast Luck
Feb 2, 1988



STAC Goat posted:

The idea of splitting the vote in that situation seems crazy to me. If she put 2 votes on Chrissy she could have ended up going home even if Mike went with her.
I think the fact that literally everyone voted Ben has to mean a consensus was reached in the live tribal that we just weren't shown.

Dugong
Mar 18, 2013

I don't know what to do,
I'm going to lose my mind


A modern day Gabon~

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Fedelm
Apr 21, 2013

It's called Ursa Major, not Ursula Merger. And that's not even it. That's Orion.


So this crazy tribal happened all because Ben overheard his alliance at the well discussing whether to vote him out before or after Chrissy. And the final nail was when they clammed up as soon as he showed himself. Like they couldn't even continue talking and include him in the conversation.

Fast Luck posted:

Then you keep telling Ben he's a spy but vote him out for real sooner or later.

This would have been smart. I think "missed opportunities" was mentioned earlier in the thread, I guess this season is just full of them.

Also Lauren apparently left her extra vote back at camp?! Why? If she had used both votes on someone other than Ben then that other person would have been the next out. Vote splitting is a thing for a reason, I guess they got complacent about whether Ben had an idol he wasn't telling them about.

STAC Goat posted:

But presumably she made that decision to trust Ben back when she trusted him, internalized the expectation of reciprocity, and it became a blind spot.

That's a good explanation for what I just complained about.

I'm disappointed. But at least Lauren took responsibility for her mistake because seriously. Mike? He's been so high on his Chaotic Coconut act that I don't see why anyone would trust him with anything. I don't think he's particularly great at strategy either; like Joe, Mike is just a normal guy who is sick of being on the outs so he just does whatever wacko thing comes to mind because it's fun, and hopes it keeps him around another day.

Fast Luck posted:

The editors (annoyingly) didn't show us what led to everyone's votes going on Ben, but I'm thinking it might be because Ryan and Chrissy couldn't get Mike to come around. Might take a rewatch but I'm pretty sure I saw Ryan and Chrissy saying "Lauren" but that we didn't see the same from Mike.

I think it's possible that Mike, Ryan, and/or Chrissy weren't sure that the division between Ben and the rest of his alliance wasn't just another act, so maybe they thought that even if Ben had an idol, he felt safe enough to not play it. I mean Ben was acting pretty much the same way he was when he was being a spy.

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