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Kim Jong Il
Aug 16, 2003

Inspector_666 posted:

Yeah but he hasn't been a particularly good one in the majors. This isn't Severino-in-2016, we saw that Severino could dominate as a starter in 2015.

I think the odds are much higher this turns into another Joba situation.

It's completely different in that Joba should have been a legit good starter and he was ruined outside of his own issues. Green was always fringe so who cares. It doesn't matter if they stretch him out, if he's not lighting the world on fire, he can always go back to the bullpen.

If we're freaking out about the fifth starter in November, you really don't have serious problems. I think CC was running on fumes and shouldn't be re-signed. Tanaka/Severino/Gray/Montgomery, sign some innings eating vet, throw a prospect or two in the mix, and they have plenty of long relief/5th starter types.

Let's talk about more important stuff, like getting Castro the gently caress off the roster.

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Kim Jong Il
Aug 16, 2003
He's a hacker, he plays lovely defense, and he's absolutely at the peak of his value - partially due to Yankee Stadium. He's in the bottom third of 2Bs in the league.

Kim Jong Il
Aug 16, 2003
Uh Bird's defense is not good at all. He'll be dope offensively though and I'm not worried about his health. I think he'll be the next Richie Sexson.

Kim Jong Il
Aug 16, 2003

mcmagic posted:

The stupid thing is that Gardner was always pretty close to as good as Ellsbury. Some years a little better, some year a little worse, and they paid Ellsbury like a billion times as much. That must annoy gardner... Either way, there has been rumors about Gardner being traded for a number of offseasons.

I just want to endlessly dunk on 2007-era Baseball America and Sons of Sam Horn, which would continuously poo poo on Gardner while endlessly praising Ellsbury. Gardner was always, always better and in a way I'm happy Ellsbury is glued to the bench and gigantic useless sunk cost for the Yankees just to prove that point forever eternally.

Kim Jong Il
Aug 16, 2003
How do you know the Yankees still won't sign a veteran IF for depth and competition?

This is the Yankees going back to their early 90s strategy of developing an in house core and then smartly supplementing it via FA. This is not them turning into the Mets. The Red Sox responded to NY's big acquisition today.

The rotation is good shape. I'm not sure if they'll be as crazy with spending as the past decade was, but it'd be a shock if they don't have a top 3 payroll every year moving forward. They're just being smarter though, and the economics of baseball are changing.

Kim Jong Il
Aug 16, 2003
It's a fifth starter, who had a sub-4 ERA, and a 4.22 ERA post ASG. Montgomery's numbers were strong outside of July. Everyone has risks. I don't think adding an actual fifth starter, who would be considerably worse than Montgomery and creates other problems, is that pressing. But would I rather have a Jaime Garcia type as my first or second replacement for an injury? Sure.

Teams that wouldn't trade places with the Yankees in an instant: Astros, Dodgers, Indians. That's about it. This is the second or third best team in baseball on paper with a consensus top 3 (they're probably 2nd behind the Braves) farm system.

Kim Jong Il
Aug 16, 2003

Paul Zuvella posted:

Except for all the reports that say no one wants him and the team has not asked him to waive his NTC, but sure. People are just chomping at the chance to trade for old Jacoby Ellsbury.

Not at that salary. If Ellsbury was available for 4m a year, someone would take him. There's only a handful of teams like the Giants or DBacks he'd waive it for though.

I'd much rather eat all of Ellsbury but 4m than attach something valuable to him, to save more money.

mcmagic posted:

Who's the odd man out here? Torreyes? Wade? I hope Andujar still gets the biggest shot to win 3B.

Probably Toe once Torres is promoted, I think the FA still loves Wade.

This is what I'd want to see:

Sanchez
Romine

Bird
Didi
Wade
Andujar
Drury
Austin
Toe/Torres

Ellsbury
Hicks
Stanton
Judge

I'm afraid the coaching staff keeps Toe instead of Wade because of stupid reasons, or even worse have another bullpen pitcher instead. He's exactly the kind of player that coaching staffs irrationally love, the hot streak last year may end up being bad for us in the long run if he keeps sticking around.

I personally like Austin and would like another RH bat, although could see him getting dumped for Toe (prob the most likely) or another bullpen arm.

Kim Jong Il fucked around with this message at 02:44 on Feb 21, 2018

Kim Jong Il
Aug 16, 2003
He was a little lucky on balls in play, and was completely empty calories batting average. Wade is a solid prospect who profiles as a regular on a second division club, or a super sub with a good team. If they don't screw it up he'll be a valuable piece for years to come, if they do then he'll be a five year starter for the Pirates/Royals/Marlins/etc...

I wouldn't pay too much attention to FO comments right now on Andujar. See how he is in camp. Although I'm a bit of a skeptic both because of his free swinging, and wanting Machado badly in a year.

Kim Jong Il
Aug 16, 2003
The biggest problem with Andujar is that he's going to be a hacker. I think he'll be an average defender, but he profiles as a better version of Joe Crede. That's a MLB regular, but not my favorite kind of player.

Kim Jong Il
Aug 16, 2003

mcmagic posted:

He's gonna be better than that. That's like a 300OBP player. I could see Andujar being like a pre blue jays Edwin Encarnacion as a floor.

Average and power yes, but has hasn't shown that kind of patience. I think he's a MUCH better defensive player though.

mikeraskol posted:

If you're rolling with a better version of Joe Crede at 3rd as your 7th best position player, you're in good shape. I'd take this honestly.

Yeah it's ok, I just personally hate free swingers. And just to be clear, I meant offensively, I think he'll be below average but passable defensively. Just not the trainwreck he is being portrayed as by some.

Kim Jong Il
Aug 16, 2003
That was me, although I want my precious Tyler Wade to start.

Kim Jong Il
Aug 16, 2003
I never liked him and have wanted to sell high for a while. I haven't hated a Yankee prospect like I do him since Manny Banuelos back when everyone loved him for a year.

Kim Jong Il
Aug 16, 2003

mcmagic posted:

I hate that they sent down Andujar. He's a major leaguer right now.

No he isn't, he chases bad pitches.

ihatepants posted:

Did anyone really think he would make it this season without an injury? Heís worse than Ellsbury. Sucks that thereís pretty much no 1B depth in the minors, either.

That's a giant exaggeration, and we don't even know if this is anything yet.

Kim Jong Il
Aug 16, 2003

mcmagic posted:

LOL and? Have you watched baseball recently? NTM that he had well over 800 OPS in both AA and AAA last season. He's clearly ready for the majors.

And you think that MLB pitchers are going to throw as many meatballs over the plate? I haven't entirely poo poo on him, I've defended his defense, just he has more to work on and starting him in the minors is 100% justifiable from a baseball perspective.

ihatepants posted:

How is it an exaggeration? Heís played 94 games since he was called up in August of 2015.

He was out for all of 2016 on a shoulder injury, and then missed a good portion of last year after fouling the ball off his foot. Those are two incidents. Just a little early to be calling him Mr. Glass.

Kim Jong Il
Aug 16, 2003

mcmagic posted:

I'm not quite sure what you're talking about... He had 71k's in 480 AB's last season that is like.. fine...

For comparison, Drury had 103k's in 445 AB's, Tyler Wade had 75k's in 339 AB and Neil Walker had 77k's in 385 AB's. In closing Andujar had the lowest k rate by far of any yankee infielder other than Didi. lol

Plate discipline isn't K rate. Aaron Judge has incredible discipline and gets tons of strikeouts.

Kim Jong Il
Aug 16, 2003

mcmagic posted:

There is literally nothing in Andujar's track record that doesn't scream out that he's ready to succeed in the majors right now.

29:71 BB:K ratio last year says otherwise. Unless you're willing to go on the record that he's Robbie Cano. He still has a good shot long term, just that there's nothing wrong with giving him more time in Scranton right now.

Kim Jong Il
Aug 16, 2003

ihatepants posted:

Maybe they should have DFAíed Gallegos instead of Cave.

Cave sucks though, and Gallegos has more value.

Holder is actually solid and is only an 8th guy because the Yankees have an embarrassment of riches.

Kim Jong Il
Aug 16, 2003
Gray will be fine although I, like everyone, hate watching him pitch. I wish they would have just claimed Verlander and eaten his salary. More than I really wanted to keep Kaprielian.

Freaking out after two weeks is stupid. Betances may indeed be broken but even that's early, I'm not particularly worried about the team. But I think there's a decent chance Boston might be really good this year.

Kim Jong Il
Aug 16, 2003

Of course I would love this to be permanent but I would bet a lot of money it's not. A lot of players have had super hot weeks. I've always thought he's fine as a long term regular, just I think he needs more polish.

Kim Jong Il
Aug 16, 2003

Iodised QQ posted:

Only 3 games out, which is pretty funny given some posts here a couple weeks ago about how Boston would be impossible to catch.

Quote this after this really rough stretch of schedule ends and the 3 games probably balloons to a bit more, but it's a long season and this team is p good ya'll

I didn't think lovely players like Nunez would stay red hot, just that last year their lineup was even worse and we still couldn't catch them because we fell into too big of a hole. Having them play down to their true talent level on offense is nice.

Kim Jong Il
Aug 16, 2003
It's weird how the Indians look so terrible at the plate when not carving up Chasen Shreve, although they did lose a bunch of guys, and were pretty mediocre in the first half last year. It seems crazy that they would give away a future regular in Frazier even if he's not going to be a star. At least the Cubs can argue that they're a big market team, had a bunch of infielders, etc...

It's probably not sustainable that they keep winning so many close games, but tonight for instance, they would have at minimum gotten a second run in with the Andujar hit if it wasn't the bottom of the ninth, and they had horrible luck with runners on base all game. The underlying stats suggested it shouldn't have been as close as it was.

CC turning into Jamie Moyer remains baffling and delightful.

The bottom of the lineup is brutal without Austin/Bird.

Kim Jong Il
Aug 16, 2003
I was complaining about Walker (who has indeed started hitting a bit, but I want Bird back bad) and Andujar. I just hate Andujar's approach at the plate, he needs to spend time in Scranton, especially with Drury hitting well there. Compare Andujar to Hicks, who has holes in his swing, but at least he can work the count a little bit, and he's the only realistic defensive option in CF.

Gardner is heating up a tiny bit again and I love him, but I really want to see what Frazier can do.

Kim Jong Il
Aug 16, 2003

Carlosologist posted:

I totally agree, Frazier is probably the hitting prospect Iíve been most excited about since the Miller trade. He deserves a chance at the bigs in New York

Iím also really disappointed in Hicks. Had a nice season last year but heís gone back to Minnesota levels this season. Really thought he was gonna break out in a big way this year but I guess these are those misses in player development that happen

Even in his slump, he was a way different player than he used to be. Hicks has a way different profile in terms of underlying metrics than he did in Minnesota. He's a valuable contributor.

Paul Zuvella posted:

This idea that Brandon Drury is some great hitter is really weird. Dude is a slightly below average MLB bat, which is exactly what Andujar is currently. The difference is that Andujar has the potential to mash taters like no ones business and Drury does not.

OBP matters, and at least for now he's better defensively.

mcmagic posted:

Gonna be rough to send Austin down when Bird comes back.

gently caress the stupid gigantic bullpens, although I can't see him continuing this with a 30%+ strikeout rate, even though he's come back to Earth.

(And they really should consider selling high on Didi and making Gley the SS... Did is both great and someone who we should sell high on, if he could be used to land an ace.)

Kim Jong Il fucked around with this message at 01:01 on May 23, 2018

Kim Jong Il
Aug 16, 2003
I desperately want him, but where the hell do you put him? I guess the others more rest? Gardner is useful, and Hicks, to the contrary of what you said, is pretty good. He does everything well except hit for average. I guess Frazier should be there because Gardner's option doesn't make sense with the new MLB economics.

The problems right now, by far, are:

1. Gray
2. CC (maybe)
3. Bullpen

The offense is the best in baseball, although super streaky.

I don't want to cut bait on Gray given what we gave up for him. But if it's possible to find another problem case to swap him for. I would have suggested Harvey if he wasn't already traded. Although I'm a little terrified that he's a product of playing in Oakland. If they just had Montgomery being replacement level, it'd be a huge upgrade.

For the bullpen, I think Kahnle just doesn't have it, he might be a one year wonder. I still trust Robertson and Betances, and they're about to get Warren back. That gives them 5 relievers. Holder's fine (gently caress the haters), and German might be #7 with how he's been looking. I don't want to call up Sheffield because I don't want them to Joba him. Not saying anything particularly controversial here, fire Shreve into the sun.

Kim Jong Il
Aug 16, 2003

mcmagic posted:


Hicks and Gardner have been very slimier players this season that both have been relatively replacement level. And that is with Gardner having a pretty bad season by his standards.

This opinion is hilariously bad. They both play great defense and are OBP machines, ever before Gardner's recent surge. They're both really good. Why do you want everyone to be a Joe Carter clone.

Kim Jong Il
Aug 16, 2003

mcmagic posted:

Hicks' OBP is 352... That isn't exactly a "machine". His isoBP is fine but he's still hitting 250 with not much power. Gardner's OBP is 10 points higher and his SLG is a bit lower in a down year. They are both having pretty mediocre years with Gardner being an elite defender and hicks being slightly over average. The question of if they are a better team with Frazier in LF and Gardner in CF is hardly crazy.

The Yankees have a comical embarrassment of riches with Frazier and Drury languishing in AAA when both, especially Frazier, would start for many teams.

So loving what though, offense is down leaguewide. With positional adjustments, by Fangraphs WAR, Gardner is the #11 OF and Hicks is the #25 OF - in all of MLB. They're both having great offensive years when you adjust for the season. Brett Gardner has a higher wOBA than Gary Sanchez.

I think people don't realize that OBP is way more valuable than slugging. That old math of adding them as OPS was dumb as hell.

Kim Jong Il
Aug 16, 2003

mcmagic posted:

Andujar has been an elite offensive player at every single level he's ever played at. This isn't surprising at all.

:confused:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=anduja000mig

He indeed has adjusted and gotten better. But more than anything, I think his success is a function of the Yankees suddenly being the best franchise in MLB for player development. It's like playing The Show on Rookie mode. I sure hope this doesn't stop with Denbo in Miami. It's comical how every one of our prospects as of late hits at least his 80th percentile projection, and the ones who don't, we trade to the White Sox.

Kim Jong Il
Aug 16, 2003
I would make up a phantom injury for Shreve instead of pure DFA, but yeah he's bad.

I'm moderately upset that Boston lucked out with the way Seattle's rotation was set up.

Kim Jong Il
Aug 16, 2003

mcmagic posted:


He was garbage last year too after they traded for him.

He was fine last year. I think he's just a #3 starter and it's easier to pitch in Oakland.

I'd love to deal for him another reclamation project like Jon Gray. I don't want to just DFA him, pitchers just have bad years/can't handle NY/etc..., it happens.

Kim Jong Il
Aug 16, 2003
If Tanaka's coming back soon, I don't see the point of going all in on JA Happ unless they can get him cheap. If you're going for a starter, go for a real difference maker.

I'm convinced that at some point, Boston's bullshit luck will run out (e.g. Monday's game), and/or they'll get a rash of injuries that they don't have the depth to overcome.

Kim Jong Il
Aug 16, 2003
I'm so happy that my precious Greg Bird is playing well, and Tyler Wade had a good game on Wednesday. I basically ride or die with Bird, Wade, Hicks, and Holder.

Let the record show that Andujar had two defensive fuckups in the Tanaka start (the throw to Bird, and he should have gotten to the double down the line if he had better range.) I would trade Andujar in a second in a package for Machado. He's loving Machado.

Kim Jong Il
Aug 16, 2003

mcmagic posted:

Also, Bird's D has been just as bad as Andujar's and I don't see you all over him...

It hasn't by the eye test, and it hasn't by the advanced metrics. Bird also actually understands the difference between balls and strikes, and I'm also going by the scouting projections where the Yankees apparently love Bird and see him as a 30 HR bat, but there was at least the NYPost report suggesting they're not that high on Adnujar.

quote:

It makes zero sense to give up multiple elite level prospects for a rental player you don't even need.

I'm not suggesting giving up elite prospects. But "don't even need" is wrong. Pitching is a bigger need, but adding more offense and better defense would improve the team. Subbing Machado for Andujar probably means they would have won 2 more games up to this point.

Kim Jong Il
Aug 16, 2003
German is weird. Like, I'd say he should be a reliever, but he can actually go a few innings. And he's usually really good outside of his fuckups, but when he fucks up, boy. He's honestly been way more impressive than Gray this year. And he's clearly better than the Luis Cessa/Bryan Mitchell/David Hale types. Maybe he could be the new Mendoza? Even though the Yankees apparently still have the magic long man machine humming along with Warren and now Cole being pretty good.

It's almost like he's Ricky Nolasco in that he pitches worse than his numbers say he should, but he's honestly not that far off from being a poor man's 2017 Tanaka. Like, I trust him way, way more than I would Happ, who just sucks and I want nowhere near the team.

Kim Jong Il
Aug 16, 2003
I'd rather roll the dice on Sheffield over Happ. But Andujar in a package for someone good is a good idea.

Kim Jong Il
Aug 16, 2003

Inspector_666 posted:

Traded three likely Rule 5 casualties for another solid lefty, I'm into it.

Nope. Tate is a legit prospect although who knows. Carroll is a solid reliever type, but the Yankees have fifty million of those.

I think it's a good haul for the Orioles. I don't really see the need for Britton besides blocking other teams from getting him.

edit: if anything, we'll be saved by Boston's lineup being crap 5-9.

Kim Jong Il
Aug 16, 2003
There's value in a lower end starter who gets Ks, or a power reliever. Now in terms of chips they don't REALLY care about but who have MLB talent who are left, there's Adams, who's lost it this year. Abreu, another live arm type. And Lasagna, who is a ticking time bomb, so you get what you can out of him before he's out of baseball. I think it's stupid to give away those guys for free, but I will throw a fit if anyone better (read: Sheffield) is traded for a mediocre veteran starter.

Kim Jong Il
Aug 16, 2003

ihatepants posted:


I would be pretty upset if they decide to trade 4 years of Drury for 3 months of Happ. As much as the team needs pitching, Iíd rather they just go with internal options if thereís really no one better available.

While it was the going rate, in terms of pure value the Blue Jays won this. I'm just happy they didn't give up more, and hoping it shuts everyone up. I'd rather have Drury as the world's best injury protection.

Happ is a 4th starter and will pitch to a 4.5 ERA the rest of the season.

Kim Jong Il
Aug 16, 2003

ihatepants posted:

Man, Sevy has hit a wall and hasnít pitched well since that game against Boston on the 1st. Getting blown out by the Royals is unacceptable.

This isn't Sonny Gray in April bad. He's looked fine and then fallen apart. E.g., the last Rays start where he was fine before the defense hosed him, and then he promptly gave up the HR.

Anyway, Chasen Shreve sucks and always has, but I'm not a fan of the recent trade away all the depth because otherwise they'll lose it in the Rule V draft strategy. Those deals will still be there after the season. We've already been hosed by trading away too many corner OF bats, and now we don't have Frazier/Judge insurance. Relievers are volatile too, and now we have less leeway if some start going bad.

I'm also mad that the Yankees were historically good at developing fringe talent from 2015-2017, and keep getting 60-80 cents on the dollar for a lot of them.

Kim Jong Il
Aug 16, 2003

ihatepants posted:

He's given up 33 hits, 7 homers and 19 earned runs in his last 19 1/3 innings. That's pretty bad and arguably worse than Gray's April. And he looks like he's getting progressively worse each time out. He's likely either in a dead arm phase or tipping his pitches (because it looked like the Royals were all over his fastball today). Either way, if he doesn't improve and pitch like the ace the team needs, the team is in serious trouble.

I don't give a poo poo about grounders that find a hole because Andujar and Walker are defensive butchers. His problem is he's giving up too many homers, but again watching the games, it seemed like more of a confidence thing after his teammates failed him.

mcmagic posted:

None of the guys they traded have really had any success anywhere else other than I guess Pierce who is magically a good hitter now with Boston. The Frazier injury is worse than any of these trades as far as what is hurting the current depth. He would be here playing every day.

Pearce?

The Yankees over the past few years have been simultaneously one of the best run franchises in baseball, and far too surrendering of MLB talent in trades because of 40 man roster issues. Gamel, Cave, McKinney, Pazos, Fowler, Caleb Smith, and with the small chance Luis Torrens turns into something, and all the random RHP relievers they've traded. That's better than at least the track record of 10 teams in developing MLB talent over that time span.

Kim Jong Il fucked around with this message at 22:21 on Jul 29, 2018

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Kim Jong Il
Aug 16, 2003
Adam Warren is good and that trade makes me want to murder, even with full knowledge that they magically made AJ Cole good and he can do the job just as well, and it frees up money for another trade. And Warren sucks away from the Yankees, and they'll get him back after the season for cheap.

Lynn could be better in a relief role but I don't see the point unless it's CC insurance. I kind of like Austin, but dudes who can't hit lefties or play defense are not in demand. Voit is garbage offensively, I'd rather have Austin.

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