NBA DRAFT THREAD 17/18: Big Tools

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Rick: Feb 23, 2004; When I was 17, my father was so stupid, I didn't want to be seen with him in public. When I was 24, I was amazed at how much the old man had learned in just 7 years.

I'm going to start building my "games to watch" schedule soon. I pretty much just go for the most efficient path to watching the most players in the fewest games possible, but if anyone can think of some games that might be good for other reasons, let me know.

# ¿ Dec 23, 2017 12:39

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# ¿ Apr 16, 2024 11:41

Rick: Feb 23, 2004; When I was 17, my father was so stupid, I didn't want to be seen with him in public. When I was 24, I was amazed at how much the old man had learned in just 7 years.

Following up a year of Sean Miller with Brad Stevens is a good way to make sure Ayton's burgeoning defensive awareness continues to grow. And he's a monster on the boards, and looks at least hopeful to develop an outside shot. The Celtics will draft like Robert Williams III and he'lll somehow be an amazing shooter despite being a mediocre to bad college shooter.

Spacebump posted:

How deep is this draft supposed to be? Are the Mavs screwed if they end up with the 6-8th pick?

One of the reason I don't even start to scout until January is that the draft rankings change so wildly between November and January, and even then they aren't really STABLE at any point until the college season is over.

Which makes it hard to project depth unfortunately.

# ¿ Jan 3, 2018 21:35

Rick: Feb 23, 2004; When I was 17, my father was so stupid, I didn't want to be seen with him in public. When I was 24, I was amazed at how much the old man had learned in just 7 years.

I finally got my schedule together and it's ugly and not very appealing. Last year I was lucky and a lot of the prospects were playing each other in big games, but this year, not so much.

Anyway while I was putting this together I was watching a tape delay of Tony Carr, wasn't really scouting him but I'm worried about the depth of this draft if he's really a borderline first round prospect.

E: I guess now I need to figure out how to watch Donic

Rick fucked around with this message at 10:00 on Jan 13, 2018

# ¿ Jan 13, 2018 09:33

Rick: Feb 23, 2004; When I was 17, my father was so stupid, I didn't want to be seen with him in public. When I was 24, I was amazed at how much the old man had learned in just 7 years.

Also, I know people hate this, but "best player on bad team" is often fool's gold.

# ¿ Jan 22, 2018 18:48

Rick: Feb 23, 2004; When I was 17, my father was so stupid, I didn't want to be seen with him in public. When I was 24, I was amazed at how much the old man had learned in just 7 years.

Lockback posted:

"Guy who puts up big numbers on lovely efficiency" is usually fool's gold. Maybe they can create pretty well, but that doesn't mean they will automagically be more efficient when asked to play a different role. It'll depend a lot on what he's being asked to do.

"Guy who puts up efficient numbers on a bad team" is usually a good sign though, typically it is harder to be efficient when your the team's only option.

How's Jodie Meeks doing?

E: I'm being reductive but over the past three years we've seen more evidence that even "efficient on a bad team" doesn't mean a ton.

Rick fucked around with this message at 20:34 on Jan 22, 2018

# ¿ Jan 22, 2018 20:14

Rick: Feb 23, 2004; When I was 17, my father was so stupid, I didn't want to be seen with him in public. When I was 24, I was amazed at how much the old man had learned in just 7 years.

Kibner posted:

Well, he made it to the NBA and has been a rotation for several years (and still is).

Oh totally, I think I'm talking about something that really isn't the conversation here so I'll check out of this one.

# ¿ Jan 22, 2018 20:36

Rick: Feb 23, 2004; When I was 17, my father was so stupid, I didn't want to be seen with him in public. When I was 24, I was amazed at how much the old man had learned in just 7 years.

Daniel Gafford has a nice enough shot but seems really passive offensively. He looks nice when he does participate in the offense. But defense is where he looks good, not every decision is perfect of course, but he seems to overall have really good instincts, and he's in a pressing, switching defense and has a good idea what to do in it.

Landry Shamet - I spent the first half of this game getting ready to whine about how bad college basketball was and to make fun of the lovely refs who thought it was Witchita vs Tulsa vs Refs and who were trying to get on TV every 30 seconds calling like touch fouls 20 feet away from the ball, and the camera work was loving terrible and Shamet was barely touching the ball. But man the second half really turned around in all facets. Once Shamet started going, he had his hands in everything. Great basketball IQ, smart passes, crazy quick release, creative around the basket. I'm suddenly a big fan (and this game ended up being great and the refs relaxed). I have no clue if he has actual NBA range because he shoots every three exactly in front of the line but he's shooting 53% from 3 too.

# ¿ Jan 28, 2018 04:22

Rick: Feb 23, 2004; When I was 17, my father was so stupid, I didn't want to be seen with him in public. When I was 24, I was amazed at how much the old man had learned in just 7 years.

Rui Hachimura is from Japan, not a place known for prospects, but he doesn't feel raw or new to the game. Decent basketball IQ (although he does make a lot of mistakes trying to do too much), great body control. I'm kind of skeptical of that offensive game translating to the pros, or if it would even translate to a better conference (a lot of his offense seems based on him being much bigger and much more athletic than like the entire non-Gonzaga WCC). I do think the defense could translate though, because he has excellent timing and understands when to rotate). I could see the right team drafting him and changing his offense a bit and developing him into a good player.

I thought Killian Tille was garbage at first, because while he's clearly very quick, his moves to the basket when he's out of control are awful. But then when he slows down a bit, he has a really nice touch around the rim. The quickness does help him a lot on D, he moves very nice laterally. Not really sure he's an NBA pro but the raw tools are there.

With DraftExpress dead, there's no one to rank 1,000 players across the country and I'm sure Soluey Boum would probably be ranked 800 or something but I was really impressed by him. Like I usually tune out everyone but who I'm watching to watch but he really caught my eye. If this guy showed up cooking gas on a summer league squad after he graduates, I wouldn't be shocked.

# ¿ Feb 20, 2018 06:39

Rick: Feb 23, 2004; When I was 17, my father was so stupid, I didn't want to be seen with him in public. When I was 24, I was amazed at how much the old man had learned in just 7 years.

I used to think the David Robinson comp was awful because David Robinson was one of the league's best defenders. I can absolutely see it tonight though, with Ayton just dictating what happens on both sides of the court. God drat Ayton is awesome.

# ¿ Feb 25, 2018 05:12

Rick: Feb 23, 2004; When I was 17, my father was so stupid, I didn't want to be seen with him in public. When I was 24, I was amazed at how much the old man had learned in just 7 years.

Dejan Bimble posted:

Do you think he'll be able to continue to grow as a defender

Before the choice was "Tall Kyrie Irving with Rubio passing who'll be a career injury risk due to hunchback and never defend at anything better than 'average'" or "True center scoring machine who is lazy on defense, meaning his team would never be especially good"

If Ayton can improve his defense he separates himself from Bagley, who'll take a few years to find a role other than AAU roving Duke 4, and Porter who we just haven't seen a lot of, although he could be a better Tobias Harris with more finesse

I think Ayton CAN improve as a defender, but in the past you've talked about "Playing Defense - Not Cool" syndrome and that's been hard to break. He's improved a lot in one season but still sometimes is too cool to defend. Under all the drama he's gone through the past two weeks, it seems to have awakened someone who is defending with passion and as a "gently caress you" to the media, the road crowd, and anyone who doesn't think that 100k is a bargain price for one year of him. If he can end up somewhere where he can get some motivation, the sky is the limit. His reach when jumping is so high and his timing is so good (his rebounding is a nice demonstration of this--not only is he good at pulling the ball down, but he's also good at generally causing guys to foul him while he does this) that applied to defense he basically changes every single possession, while avoiding fouls very well.

What I worry about is him ending up in Phoenix where everyone is a Cool Guy and defense is lame and by the time he ends up somewhere that defense matters it'll be too late. I don't think he's a guy who is very much of a self-motivator. I also don't think sitting behind Marc Gasol for two or three years would be good for him either.

# ¿ Mar 6, 2018 06:13

Rick: Feb 23, 2004; When I was 17, my father was so stupid, I didn't want to be seen with him in public. When I was 24, I was amazed at how much the old man had learned in just 7 years.

Game I watched (Duke vs Miami) was an object lesson in why it's important to watch more than one game, because of the 7 or so prospects on the floor, Bagley was probably the second worst.

# ¿ Mar 7, 2018 03:25

Rick: Feb 23, 2004; When I was 17, my father was so stupid, I didn't want to be seen with him in public. When I was 24, I was amazed at how much the old man had learned in just 7 years.

A lot of the guys projected in the mid to late 20s in many mocks are upperclassmen which I'm starting to think is a Draft Depth Red Flag. I mean, in reality, this is the type of player often picked in these slots, so maybe draft boards are finally getting wise to that, but also I think that might just mean that there aren't 20 or so hyped freshman that people have a good feeling about contributing to the league.

E: Draft Landry Shamet and call it a day.

# ¿ Mar 8, 2018 18:08

Rick: Feb 23, 2004; When I was 17, my father was so stupid, I didn't want to be seen with him in public. When I was 24, I was amazed at how much the old man had learned in just 7 years.

NickRoweFillea posted:

Am I wrong to be skeptical of Ayton? Maybe it�s just my Th*beet gunshy fear for big men

Ayton is nothing like Thabeet at all. A lot of the Thabeet hype was based on mystery or what-ifs, we have already seen a lot of realization of what Ayton is.

Ayton showed when properly motivated an ability to absolutely control the game on both ends of the court. However that motivation to do things on the defensive end was pretty rare. He was legit the worst defensive player I ever saw during his first three or four games and became better over the course of the season, and was downright great in the Oregon game until he started to run out of gas late in the second half.

The parts of the Ringer article trying to frame the coach of Buffalo as a genius for exploiting Aytons somehow and that's how Buffalo won is pretty much total bullshit. Like his man hooked him and scored on him on a dribble drive twice at the perimeter, and like a few times little guards got to the rim that he didn't block but that's it, the rest of the time Buffalo was mostly kept out of the interior there's a reason they were (successfully) bombing away from three and not testing the inside much and Ayton should get credit for that. The other parts of the article though covering him over the course of the season are pretty on point, though. He just doesn't block a lot of shots, and he is still learning to defensively rotate and still doesn't make great decisions in this arena. It's very hard to shoot over him though and most guards don't try.

Offensively, things are much brighter. His downsides are that he isn't a knockdown three point shooter (although he's not awful), and he also is not the type of player to put the ball on the floor and create, which means you need players who will be able to get him the ball which WAS a put on display in Buffalo, because Arizona just was unable to get him the ball in spots he likes, or even on the side of the court he likes, even once, the entire game. In the NBA it will be harder to stop him from getting that spot because at least technically under the rules they won't be able to jam guys around him constantly (although despite what the Bashez of the world think, NBA players have been finding ways to play the zone literally the whole time it's existed, whatever the rules say), and if he gets the ball in his spot, he scores, especially even against multiple dudes. If he gets to Memphis then even their worst PG is better than Arizonas' and Conely will love him. But it is too bad that he can't put the ball on the floor ala Cousins because he would be much less dependent on decent guard play if he could.

I'm not worried about him fitting in a modern offense though, with all that said, because he's such a good rebounder and so hard to stop once he's that close to the basket that you don't have to run a ton of plays for him for him to still impact the game (also for whatever reason guys love to foul him on rebound attempts and he's a decent enough free throw shooter that he can make this count). He's also really good in two man action and is really hard to stop once he's rolling to the rim, and is pretty good at avoiding the charge. He also runs well and his wingspan and athleticism makes it hard to stop him from slamming home well thrown oops.

David Robinson was much more refined defensively, so I don't love the comp for that reason (although Ayton's Oregon game was Robinsonesque), and I still have like 16 guys to watch, but I haven't seen anyone better so far (haven't seen Doncic yet).

Rick fucked around with this message at 22:56 on Mar 27, 2018

# ¿ Mar 27, 2018 22:48

Rick: Feb 23, 2004; When I was 17, my father was so stupid, I didn't want to be seen with him in public. When I was 24, I was amazed at how much the old man had learned in just 7 years.

Kibner posted:

The way you describe him sounds like a more physical, but less feel for the game Anthony Davis.

This is pretty accurate, although Ayton does have a really good feel for the game, he just doesn't have the passing instincts that Davis does, he's going to try to solve every problem via power.

# ¿ Mar 27, 2018 23:52

Rick: Feb 23, 2004; When I was 17, my father was so stupid, I didn't want to be seen with him in public. When I was 24, I was amazed at how much the old man had learned in just 7 years.

DeimosRising posted:

I�ve never noted Davis as a particularly impressive or even adept passer. He�s not hopeless like Dwight or Kanter but he looks especially bad next to Boogie

I feel like they figured it out at the end and that Davis is pretty good at weaving the ball through traffic.

# ¿ Mar 29, 2018 09:47

Rick: Feb 23, 2004; When I was 17, my father was so stupid, I didn't want to be seen with him in public. When I was 24, I was amazed at how much the old man had learned in just 7 years.

IcePhoenix posted:

Who's gonna be the obligatory guy that does this and ends up going in the second round/undrafted

Probably Ralle Alkins. One of the reasons his stock fell so much over the course of the year is he just didn't show any progress, I think a season where he would've been Arizona's #1 option a whole year might have helped quite a bit.

# ¿ Mar 30, 2018 21:08

Rick: Feb 23, 2004; When I was 17, my father was so stupid, I didn't want to be seen with him in public. When I was 24, I was amazed at how much the old man had learned in just 7 years.

Echoing what Morestuff says, Mikal Bridges is the top domestic wing so someone is going to draft for fit within the top 10 because they always do.

It honestly isn't that bad of a pick, none of these centers are sure things.

# ¿ Apr 4, 2018 17:50

Rick: Feb 23, 2004; When I was 17, my father was so stupid, I didn't want to be seen with him in public. When I was 24, I was amazed at how much the old man had learned in just 7 years.

I unfortunately seem to have exclusively seen Trae Young's bad games.

# ¿ Apr 6, 2018 00:18

Rick: Feb 23, 2004; When I was 17, my father was so stupid, I didn't want to be seen with him in public. When I was 24, I was amazed at how much the old man had learned in just 7 years.

I don't think Bridges lasts until 10 although I also think that reason will take hold and Bamba and Bagley will fall out of the top 5, but history has shown that reason does not often take hold.

# ¿ Apr 10, 2018 20:21

Rick: Feb 23, 2004; When I was 17, my father was so stupid, I didn't want to be seen with him in public. When I was 24, I was amazed at how much the old man had learned in just 7 years.

MourningView posted:

I don't really have a problem with Bamba. Mobile big guys who can protect the rim like that can find a place in the league still. Bagley definitely has some serious skinny Jahlil Oakafor potential though

I worry with what has happened to Noel and Biyombo that there's at least some chance that role actually might be going away. I know some people are thinking that maybe we're talking about Good Dwight Howard 2.0 but I am not sure he has that relentlessness that Dwight had. I'd still pick him top 10 I suppose so it's nitpicking.

You're so right about Skinny Okafor though, although I think Okafor was already way more refined in the post at the same level of experience.

# ¿ Apr 10, 2018 22:28

Rick: Feb 23, 2004; When I was 17, my father was so stupid, I didn't want to be seen with him in public. When I was 24, I was amazed at how much the old man had learned in just 7 years.

ButtWolf posted:

If there is anyone in the last few years and next few years that might be Gobertish, its Bamba. He is one of the least likely busts to me. I feel like his floor is Capela-ish, which is fine for a 4-10 pick, i think.

This rim protection hasn't stood up to the few offenses that got him in rotation this year. Small sample size because college is garbage but it's enough to imply some risk (considering like 27 out of 30 teams play like this in the NBA), and to be absolutely sure a guy's floor is Capela is a little presumptuous to me, especially as MV pointed out it's the offensive part that keeps him on the floor which at least right now isn't there.

# ¿ Apr 11, 2018 19:34

Rick: Feb 23, 2004; When I was 17, my father was so stupid, I didn't want to be seen with him in public. When I was 24, I was amazed at how much the old man had learned in just 7 years.

He is a 36% shooter from the college three, but this is where I wish college basketball stats weren't proprietary because I really wish I had a shot chart or something to look at and there's really nothing to break up the noise of all the easy paint shots Duke generated for him. Free throw shooting usually is a pretty reliable projector of pro shooting though and Bagley's isn't good.

# ¿ Apr 11, 2018 20:08

Rick: Feb 23, 2004; When I was 17, my father was so stupid, I didn't want to be seen with him in public. When I was 24, I was amazed at how much the old man had learned in just 7 years.

Bip Roberts posted:

Are there not crowd sourced stats from some weirdo who watches every Upper Colonial Conference game and spreadsheets it?

These do exist sometimes but are not always easy to find. UCLA fans kept one on Ball, though.

# ¿ Apr 11, 2018 20:15

Rick: Feb 23, 2004; When I was 17, my father was so stupid, I didn't want to be seen with him in public. When I was 24, I was amazed at how much the old man had learned in just 7 years.

I thought Carter looked pretty solid, he moved really well without the ball and didn't try anything that he wasn't good at. Duke didn't use him this way much in the games I saw but I could envision him as a good roll guy just because he seems to have the skill that translate to that sort of thing provided he can learn to catch the ball. Not a lot to speak of defensively though, at least what I saw.

# ¿ Apr 19, 2018 18:46

Rick: Feb 23, 2004; When I was 17, my father was so stupid, I didn't want to be seen with him in public. When I was 24, I was amazed at how much the old man had learned in just 7 years.

morestuff posted:

The Stepien is doing good work if you're looking for any other draft coverage out there

Hey this is really good, thank you.

# ¿ May 2, 2018 18:42

Rick: Feb 23, 2004; When I was 17, my father was so stupid, I didn't want to be seen with him in public. When I was 24, I was amazed at how much the old man had learned in just 7 years.

I'm not worried about his offense. Like it's true that his post game might not translate, because the NBA really isn't a big man post up league at the moment, but he does so much more than that. It's important to remember that Arizona was absolutely terrible at posting him up and he was still really effective in most games where they flat out couldn't get him good post opportunities. He has a lot of ways to score. He's very Robinsonesque (on offense). I don't see him taking the same volume of midrange shots in the pros simply because those don't exist that much in many pro offenses, but he's also not a BAD midrange shooter.

But his defense is definitely something that has to be considered and is enough of a concern where I can having a preference for a few other people (like I see arguments for Doncic and Jackson at least even if I'd probably still pick Ayton ahead of them).

# ¿ May 2, 2018 19:29

Rick: Feb 23, 2004; When I was 17, my father was so stupid, I didn't want to be seen with him in public. When I was 24, I was amazed at how much the old man had learned in just 7 years.

Dexo posted:

Eh, I thought he is generally accepted to be in that in that post Ayton, Doncic, Bagley 4-7 group of players. With Porter, Young, etc etc

He's showing up 2 on some mocks.

# ¿ May 14, 2018 18:56

Rick: Feb 23, 2004; When I was 17, my father was so stupid, I didn't want to be seen with him in public. When I was 24, I was amazed at how much the old man had learned in just 7 years.

Bulls getting 1 or 2 and drafting Bagley is a lot like the Lakers getting 2 and . . . drafting Lonzo Ball.

# ¿ May 14, 2018 19:34

Rick: Feb 23, 2004; When I was 17, my father was so stupid, I didn't want to be seen with him in public. When I was 24, I was amazed at how much the old man had learned in just 7 years.

I have to keep telling myself that Doncic is not Lonzo Ball and can run the pick and roll when people are saying word for word the same things about him they did about Lonzo, it just makes me spooked.

# ¿ May 15, 2018 18:57

Rick: Feb 23, 2004; When I was 17, my father was so stupid, I didn't want to be seen with him in public. When I was 24, I was amazed at how much the old man had learned in just 7 years.

kiimo posted:

I can't understand how Fultz shot just under 42% from 3 in college and can't shoot even free throws now. That shoulder is a mystery.

It's really complicated and I'm not sure who to blame, if anyone. The short of it is that Fultz changed his shot and then injured his shoulder after. Whatever inferences you make after that goes on whether or not you believe Fultz's agent or the Sixers.

# ¿ May 15, 2018 20:02

Rick: Feb 23, 2004; When I was 17, my father was so stupid, I didn't want to be seen with him in public. When I was 24, I was amazed at how much the old man had learned in just 7 years.

A weird thing is that it's apparently it is better for the Sixers to lose the Lakers pick in their quest to sign Lebron or Paul George.

MourningView posted:

It was the other way around wasn't it? He wasn't shooting that weirdly in summer league

I think you're right, it was the other way around, with injury first.

# ¿ May 15, 2018 20:08

Rick: Feb 23, 2004; When I was 17, my father was so stupid, I didn't want to be seen with him in public. When I was 24, I was amazed at how much the old man had learned in just 7 years.

They are rigging it for the Clippers, the huge drop off in attendance and ratings in one year undid all the work they did to make the Clippers relevant.

# ¿ May 15, 2018 23:21

Rick: Feb 23, 2004; When I was 17, my father was so stupid, I didn't want to be seen with him in public. When I was 24, I was amazed at how much the old man had learned in just 7 years.

kiimo posted:

That has to be depressing as a Laker fan to see Boston and Philly on your podium

I'm glad to be done with this.

A draft LOTTO party sounds bad to me since this is about a half hour, but I celebrate the actual draft as a holiday and at least take a half day if I can.

# ¿ May 16, 2018 00:37

Rick: Feb 23, 2004; When I was 17, my father was so stupid, I didn't want to be seen with him in public. When I was 24, I was amazed at how much the old man had learned in just 7 years.

morestuff posted:

ESPN production team really struggling tonight

They've been super bad lately. I guess most people don't notice but even someone like me with just a minor in media notices the heck out of it.

# ¿ May 16, 2018 00:58

Rick: Feb 23, 2004; When I was 17, my father was so stupid, I didn't want to be seen with him in public. When I was 24, I was amazed at how much the old man had learned in just 7 years.

I want a GM to hire me to scout the draft so I'd be really nervous and not say anything probably.

# ¿ May 16, 2018 01:00

Rick: Feb 23, 2004; When I was 17, my father was so stupid, I didn't want to be seen with him in public. When I was 24, I was amazed at how much the old man had learned in just 7 years.

Dejan Bimble posted:

It sucks that Woj got the entire basketball staff of espn.com fired and replaced by his cronies, just because he would beat the draft by 3 minutes. Every one of them is a dingbat

# ¿ May 16, 2018 01:01

Rick: Feb 23, 2004; When I was 17, my father was so stupid, I didn't want to be seen with him in public. When I was 24, I was amazed at how much the old man had learned in just 7 years.

I'm behind on the stream oh god that beard, lmao.

# ¿ May 16, 2018 01:07

Rick: Feb 23, 2004; When I was 17, my father was so stupid, I didn't want to be seen with him in public. When I was 24, I was amazed at how much the old man had learned in just 7 years.

Courtney Love really IS addicted to plastic surgery.

# ¿ May 16, 2018 01:11

Rick: Feb 23, 2004; When I was 17, my father was so stupid, I didn't want to be seen with him in public. When I was 24, I was amazed at how much the old man had learned in just 7 years.

The Penny thing will sure make this seem fixed if Orlando wins.

# ¿ May 16, 2018 01:15

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# ¿ Apr 16, 2024 11:41

Rick: Feb 23, 2004; When I was 17, my father was so stupid, I didn't want to be seen with him in public. When I was 24, I was amazed at how much the old man had learned in just 7 years.

Ah that's hosed.

# ¿ May 16, 2018 01:21

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