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 Mod edit: Lightning Knight posted:
Lightning Knight posted:I'm gonna post this here now while it's quiet:  Welcome, gentlegoons, to ELECTION MODE!This is it. The day we've all been waiting for, since our long national nightmare began two long, weirdly infinite years ago. Before the caravan, before Shucks and her malevolent press conferences, before Carter Page, before I've been researching this story for months and he just tweeted it out, before Bob Mueller, before the inauguration crowds, we set our eyes on the midterms and settled in for the wait. And what a wait it's been. This is usually a slower-moving thread, focusing on US politics below the national level, but today, Election Day, November 6th 2018, it is the place to livepost joyously or despairingly about the midterm elections. Rejoice in the Needle's blessings! Curse as it confirms the re-election of your least favorite Congressman! Join us, because it's sure gonna be a ride. I'm American and I haven't voted yet, what do I do? Holy poo poo stop reading this thread and go vote right now. If you're not sure how to find the church basement, firehouse, school, or other civic building you're supposed to visit to cast your ballot, you can visit this link and put in your address, or literally google "where's my polling place" and the all-knowing panopticon will guide you. I need help getting to the polls, because I'm a goony gently caress and navigating the outdoors is difficult, or for actual reasons. No worries. Campaigns and nonprofits across the country are offering rides. Try this link, or google "rides to the polls <your area>" and see who's been posting articles about it. Or get in touch with a nearby Democratic campaign on Facebook or some other less societally-corrosive method, they'll hook you up. Uber and Lyft are offering discounted rides, but be warned, they'll charge full price to take you home again. The lines are really long and I'm worried I won't be able to vote before polls close, or that I'll be denied a ballot because of voter fuckery. Stay in line. In general, once you're in line, your vote must be counted. (For this reason, states with lots of Republican voter fuckery are likely to have votes coming in way after their poll closures; for more on this, see the post below.) If you have problems voting, there's a voter protection hotline at 866-OUR-VOTE (866-687-8683). Election observers and lawyers will guide you. And if all else fails, request a provisional ballot, as you have the right to do, but keep in mind you'll probably need to swing by your locality's registrar or commissioner of elections to provide some documentation in order for it to count. I've voted but I'm too nervous, what can I do to take the edge off? Volunteer. Do it. The days leading up to the election, and especially Election Day itself, are some of the most pivotal for canvassing in particular. If you have a few hours to kill, visit this link or this link to find where help is needed near you. Or volunteer to drive people to the polls, using the link in the question above. It's seriously really fun and you meet cool people who likely wouldn't have been able to vote without you. I've done everything I can. What now? Now you join us for the long march. Nothing left to do but wait and see. The post below will discuss how to find results, how to interpret them, and there may also be some pretty pictures. Tempers and emotions will be running high, but please consider a couple of gentle requests for the thread:1. DON'T THREATEN VIOLENCE ON ANYONE, loving HELL. 2.  This thread is going to be flying and there's nothing any of us can do so jump on in!3. Dems Bad chat is boring. You can do it but there's going to be better places for it, today of all days. 4. Post maps and graphs, lots of maps and graphs. The statistics nerds demand a sacrifice. The prettier the better. 5. While there is no dog tax, consider an adorable animal donation to your candidate of choice. 6. Be excellent to each other, and especially be excellent to anyone actually getting off their fat goony rear end and into the trenches. And always remember, there's lots of ways to cope with the stress of a nation shuddering under existential strain, and only one of them is binge drinking! Take care of yourselves.  mod edit: quote:
Somebody fucked around with this message at 19:50 on Nov 6, 2018 |
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Dec 30, 2017 00:31
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POLL WATCHING VIEWER'S GUIDE So you've voted, knocked on some doors, called a few people and interrupted their dinner, donated money to your socialist of choice. What happens now?  Here is the map covering when polls close. In particular, note that Virginia, Georgia, and Florida are some of the first to close; they are also home to a lot of the closely-watched races you'll see people ing about, so we'll have some news early. Florida and Georgia have Republican administrations that have seriously hosed with the vote, though, so news from those races will be slow to come in and highly contested.More information on poll closure waves, and what we'll be looking for in each one, can be found in this FiveThirtyEight article. Interested in chatting along with goons in a more freeform format? The IRC for that is #politicsTVIV on Synirc. For raw results, this thread's drink of choice is of course the New York Times and THE NEEDLE: FIVETHIRTYEIGHT'S ELECTION LIVEBLOG MAY BE FOUND HERE. It's good for analysis of the data as they come in. In addition, thread poster Poque has a spreadsheet you can keep an eye on: Poque posted:https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11dJ0Ri1Bn35dow_2SLBo9TrE6Lmrw48bWByh2yvDhWk/edit#gid=219120296 Keep in mind: 1. Results can be deceptive at first; every state has a different pattern in which results typically come in. Someone knowledgeable will probably post in the thread about it, and FiveThirtyEight's liveblog will discuss it as well. If you hate yourself, you can compare county-by-county results in the race of your choosing with this list of benchmarks compiled by a user on DailyKos. (This is the sort of data the 538 liveblog people will be consulting, as well.) Beware the temptation to see a tide of red votes come in from West Bumfuckia and despair, even though there are still people in line in downtown Liberton and there's a billion more people there. 2. That said, we are likely to know the general size of the blue wave fairly early, around 9 pm Eastern or so. Lots of results will come in until midnight or so. Past that, unless we have a really terrifying night and some critical races are very closely contested, you can probably go to bed and check your phone in the morning. 3. No matter what happens, Donald Trump will still be president, but hopefully he won't be quite as powerful come January as he is today. Happy watching! Quorum fucked around with this message at 01:27 on Nov 7, 2018 |
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Dec 30, 2017 00:31
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Ground floor of the 2018 wave. Gonna be some easy D's 
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Dec 30, 2017 01:00
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In ultra early polling Ted Cruz has a 13 point lead over Beto O'Rourke. Which is honestly a lot lower than I expected seeing as Cruz has near 100% name recognition and O'Rouke elicits a "who?" from everyone outside of his district in El Paso.
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Dec 30, 2017 01:35
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I will continue to keep people up to speed with VA recount shenanigans.
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Dec 30, 2017 01:41
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Shifty Pony posted:In ultra early polling Ted Cruz has a 13 point lead over Beto O'Rourke. Given everything about the race, that is honestly excitingly low. Here is a profile on Beto from Texas Monthly that I had linked earlier in the Texas thread.
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Dec 30, 2017 01:58
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People following the trump thread have known this but I’ve been waiting for the new local thread to transport the convo. In a few days I will be entering my first foray into politics. It’s a small position in my township as an advisory board member and possibly a delegate for the Indiana democratic convention. Primaries here I come! Look forward to sharing my experiences with you guys as things move forward
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Dec 30, 2017 02:01
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Spiffster posted:People following the trump thread have known this but I’ve been waiting for the new local thread to transport the convo. In a few days I will be entering my first foray into politics. It’s a small position in my township as an advisory board member and possibly a delegate for the Indiana democratic convention. Primaries here I come!  Goongratulations, and keep us posted on the vagaries of the absolute most local of politics. Personally half of my senior colleagues have run or are considering running for things like planning commission and architectural review board, which are surprisingly powerful positions when you actually look at what they do. (For example, one of the powers of the local Committee on Architectural Review is to consider the addition or removal of public art with regard to the historical fabric of the neighborhood, which has been a matter of some publicity lately.)
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Dec 30, 2017 02:20
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Spiffster posted:People following the trump thread have known this but I’ve been waiting for the new local thread to transport the convo. In a few days I will be entering my first foray into politics. It’s a small position in my township as an advisory board member and possibly a delegate for the Indiana democratic convention. Primaries here I come!  good luck, bud. My daughter is in the same day care room as one of my city's Democratic city council candidates. Poor guy lost by < 50 votes. Good luck!
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Dec 30, 2017 02:57
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Begone, old year and your curses, come forth, new year and your blessings! So just to be clear, we can just post about what's going on locally/state-level, not just elections specifically, right?
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Dec 30, 2017 03:19
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Post ur flyers itt  Yes yes yes no no we
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Dec 30, 2017 03:34
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lol at states that make you beg to cast an absentee ballot
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Dec 30, 2017 03:41
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Absurd Alhazred posted:Begone, old year and your curses, come forth, new year and your blessings! Oh yeah for definite. Elections are just the big exciting things happening this year, but everything happening below the big marquee level that the Trump Thread or that other thread might talk about is fair game.
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Dec 30, 2017 04:01
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Nth Doctor posted:
Maybe if he'd shared the blocks, he would've won
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Dec 31, 2017 02:17
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Confidently Queer posted:Maybe if he'd shared the blocks, he would've won UM EXCUSE YOU THAT'S SOSHALLISM AND NOT OKAY!!!!!11111
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Jan 1, 2018 23:15
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Confidently Queer posted:Maybe if he'd shared the blocks, he would've won gently caress. Just realized I left out that it was the kid of the candidate, not the candidate themselves who is in with my daughter. Whoops for embarrassing page 1 posts.
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Jan 2, 2018 16:35
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Space Admiral Bachmann has indicated that she's interested in Smith's (Franken's) seat in 2018. Trump ran very close so it's not totally laughable, but word is that Tina is very strong in the outstate areas she'd need to pick up. It's also telling that she's pointing to what will be a very crowded primary to run against Smith (or whoever wins on the Dem side) rather than the much emptier field against Klobuchar. Also breaking as I type this: Hatch retiring, prepare yourself for 
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Jan 2, 2018 20:15
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I wonder if a Dem would've had a marginally better shot against Hatch than against an open seat. Or, y'know, Romney. Hey, come to think of it, Massachusetts is really getting good at exporting politicians to other states. Weld going from governor of Massachusetts to running for governor of New York (and failing); Brown going from Senator from Massachusetts to running for Senator from New Hampshire (and failing); and now Romney going from governor of Massachusetts to running for Senator of Utah (and... well, probably winning). That's got to be a modern-days record, right?
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Jan 2, 2018 20:21
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Teddybear posted:I wonder if a Dem would've had a marginally better shot against Hatch than against an open seat. Or, y'know, Romney. It takes a really really bad incumbent for an open seat to be harder to take. The more retiring Republicans, the better for Democrats, more or less.
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Jan 2, 2018 20:27
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Quorum posted:It takes a really really bad incumbent for an open seat to be harder to take. The more retiring Republicans, the better for Democrats, more or less. Case in point: Trump. The Dems will have an easier time winning in 2020 against Trump than if he decides not to run again.
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Jan 2, 2018 20:29
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Paracaidas posted:Space Admiral Bachmann has indicated that she's interested in Smith's (Franken's) seat in 2018. No, it's laughable. One ad with Bachmann in that loving Sky Captain outfit, paired with any number of godawful things she's said about LGBT people, would sink her in all but the most rural areas.
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Jan 2, 2018 20:44
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Alter Ego posted:No, it's laughable. One ad with Bachmann in that loving Sky Captain outfit, paired with any number of godawful things she's said about LGBT people, would sink her in all but the most rural areas. Minnesota is pretty liberal outside of Bachmann's specific district too IIRC.
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Jan 2, 2018 20:47
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Neo_Crimson posted:Minnesota is pretty liberal outside of Bachmann's specific district too IIRC. ReaganElectionMap84.jpg
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Jan 2, 2018 21:55
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e: misread, never mind
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Jan 2, 2018 22:39
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Neo_Crimson posted:Minnesota is pretty liberal outside of Bachmann's specific district too IIRC. Alter Ego posted:No, it's laughable. One ad with Bachmann in that loving Sky Captain outfit, paired with any number of godawful things she's said about LGBT people, would sink her in all but the most rural areas. This should have held true for Trump as well? Instead, despite trailing Obama by 5-8pts statewide, Hillary grabbed 61% of the 7 county metro vote while Obama only grabbed 58%. Don't get me wrong, if I'm the D candidate (Smith or whomever else) Bachmann's my preferred opponent. But I'm not discounting the chance that there's been a major shift on metro/outstate polarization. DFL has long been a pretty messy coalition of interests (tension with outstate labor and metro environmentalism for instance), and if it finally fractured, conventional wisdom about the state could be catastrophically wrong.
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Jan 2, 2018 22:56
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In today's issue of "axeil talks about Virginia", Virginia may finally join the modern world and allow Governors to run for re-election. http://www.insidenova.com/news/arli...19f53ceb7e.html Inside NoVA posted:
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Jan 2, 2018 23:31
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Neo_Crimson posted:Minnesota is pretty liberal outside of Bachmann's specific district too IIRC. It's my understanding that the state is experiencing the same broad right-ward shift as the rest of the region, it's just so far to the left of say, Wisconsin, to start with that it hasn't been as detrimental yet. They apparently had an alarmingly small margin against Trump in 2016, iirc.
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Jan 2, 2018 23:53
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Paracaidas posted:It is, but probably not in the most traditional senses. The only reason I comment that it's not laughable is that Obama won by 10 and 7 whereas Trump closed within 1.5. If she won the primary, she'd (likely) be challenging someone with no electoral experience. Of course, Hillary all but ignored that part of the country, and was heavily smeared by decades of GOP efforts, plus the FBI/Comey thing. Since then Trump has seen a massive loss in influence and popularity, and dems are more angry/energized across the board. Not saying it's a 100% safe blue seat, but the Trump margin shouldn't be regarded as a harbinger of a shift at this time.
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Jan 3, 2018 00:00
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https://twitter.com/Slopiak/status/948315592758644736 The judge that the Pittsburgh DSA helped get elected swore in the councilwoman that we helped get elected
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Jan 3, 2018 00:23
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achillesforever6 posted:https://twitter.com/Slopiak/status/948315592758644736  Excellent work, comrade.
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Jan 3, 2018 01:23
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Lightning Knight posted:It's my understanding that the state is experiencing the same broad right-ward shift as the rest of the region, it's just so far to the left of say, Wisconsin, to start with that it hasn't been as detrimental yet. They apparently had an alarmingly small margin against Trump in 2016, iirc. Wisconsin is a tragedy that didn't have to happen. Koch money destabilizing logging in Maine with Wisconsin wood has driven much of the rightward shift. That and a larger share of the second great migration to Milwaukee which lead to . . . Let's call it "increased economic anxiety"
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Jan 3, 2018 01:30
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OAquinas posted:Of course, Hillary all but ignored that part of the country, and was heavily smeared by decades of GOP efforts, plus the FBI/Comey thing. It's a risk of applying (flimsy) national narratives to specific state outcomes. OAquinas posted:Not saying it's a 100% safe blue seat, but the Trump margin shouldn't be regarded as a harbinger of a shift at this time.
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Jan 3, 2018 01:57
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achillesforever6 posted:https://twitter.com/Slopiak/status/948315592758644736 Haha, nice! Has the Pittsburgh DSA started warmed up for 2018? I checked their Facebook and only saw mentions of two candidates running for state rep. Hilariously, they're both challenging another Costa.  For No, the current adminstration is Dem. No, they aren't stepping down. Lt Gov. Mike Stack has just been a royal poo poo to everyone at his official residence. State Rep Kevin Boyle accused Stack of "flipp[ing] him off at a public event and [throwing] a cup of soda at him". Gov Tom Wolf even stripped him of his state police security and required that maintenance and other staff be under supervision when there.
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Jan 3, 2018 01:58
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BirdOfPlay posted:No, the current adminstration is Dem. No, they aren't stepping down. Lt Gov. Mike Stack has just been a royal poo poo to everyone at his official residence. State Rep Kevin Boyle accused Stack of "flipp[ing] him off at a public event and [throwing] a cup of soda at him". Gov Tom Wolf even stripped him of his state police security and required that maintenance and other staff be under supervision when there. quote:Stack and his wife Tonya are alleged to have screamed at and otherwise verbally abused members of his state police security detail, as well as other state employees who cook and clean at their official residence. There have been complaints that troopers were asked to turn on flashers and sirens to speed up trips in nonemergency situations. State Rep. Kevin Boyle claims that Tonya Stack flipped him off at a public event and threw a cup of soda at him. Stack’s office announced in May that she has entered a residential treatment facility to deal with a “difficult mental health issue.” Holy poo poo, what the hell is with this guy
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Jan 3, 2018 02:14
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CassandraSupreme posted:Wisconsin is a tragedy that didn't have to happen. Koch money destabilizing logging in Maine with Wisconsin wood has driven much of the rightward shift. That and a larger share of the second great migration to Milwaukee which lead to . . . Let's call it "increased economic anxiety" I know and it's loving poo poo. I am hoping for a Randy Bryce and Tammy Baldwin win next year but I'm not gonna hold my breath. 
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Jan 3, 2018 02:26
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Rumors that Thad Cochran could step down for health reasons set up an interesting situation in Mississippi. An open special election seat means going up against the short term appointee instead of Roger Wicker(who is also up for reelection), which is probably part of why no Democrats have declared for that race (the other part being a lack of statewide Democrats in Mississippi). In total Mississippi is an unlikely pick up, but the ~18% presidential spread is measurably better than the 26 and 27 percent spreads of Tennessee and Alabama respectively. That is built on Mississippi's nation leading 37% African American population (only beaten by DC) . The problem here is that Mississippi's vote has been near static for decades with Democratic nominee after presidential nominee getting between 40-43% of the vote. So the situation is you need a candidate that will receive 95% of a strong African American turnout and about 20% of the whites and you've got yourself a race. This has been very difficult to do and a quick look through the statewide elections since 2000 suggests 47% is about the ceiling of what Democrats have been able to do. The major asterisk there being Jim Hood the Democratic AG since 2002. It will depend on the candidate but something to keep your eye on, if Cochran retires as speculated.
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Jan 3, 2018 02:38
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Brb starting a GoFundMe to buy Roy Moore a house in Mississippi
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Jan 3, 2018 02:47
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BirdOfPlay posted:Haha, nice! Has the Pittsburgh DSA started warmed up for 2018? I checked their Facebook and only saw mentions of two candidates running for state rep. Hilariously, they're both challenging another Costa.
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Jan 3, 2018 04:56
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OAquinas posted:Of course, Hillary all but ignored that part of the country, and was heavily smeared by decades of GOP efforts, plus the FBI/Comey thing. Worth noting: there's virtually no correlation between candidate visitation to a state and candidate performance in the state, according to Nate Silver, at least. The locals won't have that as an advantage, they need to identify her communication/ policy failings in the area, not merely assume they'll do better because "Hillary didn't visit"
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Jan 3, 2018 07:14
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theflyingorc posted:Worth noting: there's virtually no correlation between candidate visitation to a state and candidate performance in the state, according to Nate Silver, at least. The locals won't have that as an advantage, they need to identify her communication/ policy failings in the area, not merely assume they'll do better because "Hillary didn't visit" There's a difference between "not visiting" and "not expending resources." They cut off that whole section of the country in an insane game of chicken because they were so certain of victory. Hillary has her pros and cons, but the senior campaign staff she hired for both of her runs are a bunch of self-assured Dunning–Kruger incompetents. Edit: Not looking to re-litigate 2016. Takeaway here is that the Trump margin isn't typical/predictive, or is at best a lone data point. Also: run everywhere, take nothing for granted. OAquinas fucked around with this message at 08:59 on Jan 3, 2018 |
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Jan 3, 2018 08:57
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