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Pener Kropoopkin
Jan 30, 2013

Suriya

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Pener Kropoopkin
Jan 30, 2013

Al-Qaeda is an organization of contrasts

Pener Kropoopkin
Jan 30, 2013

RIP Bassel al-Asssad, owned by a roundabout

Pener Kropoopkin
Jan 30, 2013

I can't even tell if that's a pro-Assad or anti-Assad cartoon.

Pener Kropoopkin
Jan 30, 2013

ah, another beautiful day of spraying poison into the empty void

Pener Kropoopkin
Jan 30, 2013

:salt:

Pener Kropoopkin
Jan 30, 2013

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/952878988061564929

Pener Kropoopkin
Jan 30, 2013

I'd make a fortune gambling on sports.

Pener Kropoopkin
Jan 30, 2013

Israel's "informal allies" lookin good :thumbsup:

Pener Kropoopkin
Jan 30, 2013

turning northeast Syria into a US military base will permanently destabilize the whole region though.

Pener Kropoopkin
Jan 30, 2013

we’re preventing a turkish invasion already without moving in an entire division and building permanent bases that could be used for pretty much anything, because the YPG can’t protest it.

Pener Kropoopkin
Jan 30, 2013

there are already armed troops there.

Pener Kropoopkin
Jan 30, 2013

rudatron posted:

what odds do you put on native kurdish forces repelling a fully armed turkish invasion, operating under a rules of engagement that's basically 'we don't care about kurdish civilians'


rudatron posted:

this isn't like repelling the abu hajaar brigade, we're talking a modern force

Well seeing how badly the Turks did trying to fight ISIS I'd say that their odds are pretty good, but this is all besides the point because there's no basis of necessity for moving in 30,000 American soldiers into Rojava. There's already something like 1,000 US troops there, which have already been enough to prevent Turkish belligerence. This isn't a plan to protect Rojava from being invaded, it's a plan to turn it into another permanently occupied section of the Middle East that the United States can use as a launch pad to attack or invade anywhere else.

Pener Kropoopkin
Jan 30, 2013

rudatron posted:

and the basis of necessity is exactly the threat of a turkish invasion, so it's far from 'beside the point', you could say it's incredibly relevant

There's no basis for necessity because the US commitment in Rojava is already preventing a Turkish invasion.

Pener Kropoopkin
Jan 30, 2013

Brother Friendship posted:

it can be both and its only theoretical at the moment but increasingly likely to occur

A plan to move in 30,000 US troops and construct a border fence through the middle of Syria isn't theoretical.


Eox posted:

I know this isn't a question with a sane answer but why does the turkish government hate kurds so much? Is it land, an ancient feud with a dumbshit reason or something of the sort?

The Turkish government hatess Kurds because they refuse to be Turks, which was a big problem for them because most other Anatolian minorities were ethnically cleansed by Ataturk to make a Turkish nation-state. The Anatolian Greeks are all gone because they either adopted Turkish names and started speaking Turkish or they fled to Greece, but the Kurds are concentrated enough to resist forced assimilation. The Turkicization campaign was so thorough, that when France forked over a big chunk of Syrian coastline as a gift to keep Turkey from joining the Axis, they went in and renamed every Arab town and street with Turkish names.

Pener Kropoopkin
Jan 30, 2013

https://www.buzzfeed.com/johnhudson/tillerson-calls-for-indefinite-us-military-presence-in?utm_term=.wxVaQV3WJ8#.sgW28zy97A

quote:

Secretary of State Rex Tillerson unveiled an ambitious US strategy for ousting Syrian President Bashar al Assad on Wednesday that relies on an indefinite US military presence in the country, an insurrection within the Assad regime and a groundswell of support from the beleaguered Syrian people.

The speech represents the most comprehensive case Tillerson has ever made for a lasting US military presence in the war-torn country and marks a departure from language drafted between the US and Russian officials in Vietnam in November...

A central pillar to Tillerson’s plan, delivered in a speech at Stanford University, is a UN-supervised election that Tillerson predicted would result in new leadership.

“The United States believes that free and transparent elections … will result in the permanent departure of Assad and his family from power,” said Tillerson.

“Assad’s regime is corrupt, and his methods of governance and economic development have increasingly excluded certain ethnic and religious groups,” said Tillerson. “Such oppression cannot persist forever.”

A November joint-statement between Trump and Vladimir Putin called for “UN-monitored” elections. But Tillerson’s speech calls for “UN-supervised” elections, a process that is more invasive and includes additional requirements such as a voting populace that isn’t intimidated, fearful of arrest and has access to media.

One person familiar with the decision told BuzzFeed News the stronger language could create the conditions for dismantling Assad’s rule. The decision to approve a lasting US military presence in Syria was approved by Trump at a National Security Council meeting on Dec. 21...

“We understand that some Americans are skeptical of continued involvement in Syria and question the benefits of maintaining a presence in such a troubled country,” Tillerson said. “However, it is vital for the United States to remain engaged in Syria.”

Tillerson also linked America's troop presence to the need to curb Assad's hold on power. "A total withdrawal of American personnel at this time would restore Assad and continue his brutal treatment of his own people," he said.

Notably, Tillerson's plan for eventual regime change relies on several assumptions that are far from certain.

For instance, Tillerson says that “our expectation is that the desire for a return to normal life … will help rally the Syrian people and individuals within the regime to compel Assad to step down.”

Pener Kropoopkin
Jan 30, 2013

If they're relying on there to be an insurrection in the Assad regime, then what do they think the last 5 years were?

Pener Kropoopkin
Jan 30, 2013

Darkman Fanpage posted:

because by supporting iraqi kurds they can simultaneously take away support for turkish kurds and syrian kurds while also loving around in iraqi internal politics.

The Turks blockaded Iraqi Kurdistan as soon as Barzani tried to go independent. They "supported" Iraqi Kurds because they were getting cheap oil from Barzani. It was all about bizness

Pener Kropoopkin
Jan 30, 2013

The Turks are preparing an offensive against Afrin Canton, and have already started shelling cities with FSA skirmishing with the YPG along the border.

https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/954483591521689600

https://twitter.com/jenanmoussa/status/954454284380311552

https://twitter.com/jenanmoussa/status/954369594105397249

Getting on the bus in Al Bab, one way ticket to Afrin.

Pener Kropoopkin has issued a correction as of 04:59 on Jan 20, 2018

Pener Kropoopkin
Jan 30, 2013

The United States has more to gain from Turkey occupying those territories than the YPG, now that ISIS is basically defeated. Assad has more incentive to defend Afrin since the Turks could basically Turkicize it and there's not much they could do.

https://twitter.com/AylinaKilic/status/954806929129463810

They're pretty much on their own.

Pener Kropoopkin has issued a correction as of 23:22 on Jan 20, 2018

Pener Kropoopkin
Jan 30, 2013

https://twitter.com/haskologlu/status/955013233995341825

They're calling it "Operation Olive Branch."


https://twitter.com/ZeinakhodrAljaz/status/955006381777661952

:shrug: Maybe it's just FSA.

https://twitter.com/Acemal71/status/955000602639130625

Afrin is only about 40km wide.

Pener Kropoopkin has issued a correction as of 10:59 on Jan 21, 2018

Pener Kropoopkin
Jan 30, 2013


They don't have as many resources or combat experience as the YPG in Rojava, but they've also had years to prepare for a Turkish attack. So long as the primary thrust is by Salafist FSA flunkies they've got a fighting chance.

Pener Kropoopkin
Jan 30, 2013

https://twitter.com/StefanieDekker/status/955128731273777152

https://twitter.com/Conflicts/status/955118353827487745

lmao

Pener Kropoopkin
Jan 30, 2013

rudatron posted:

what is it with technicals

Heavy weapons platform that's way cheaper than a tank or a humvee.

Pener Kropoopkin
Jan 30, 2013

enjoy your curse

Pener Kropoopkin
Jan 30, 2013

pickup trucks also have enough bedspace to mound even heavier weapons than purpose-built infantry vehicles like the humvee can. An anti-aircraft gun with 20 or 40mm rounds is like being able to fire high velocity grenades that can penetrate mud walls from a kilometer away.

Pener Kropoopkin
Jan 30, 2013

Sidakafitz posted:

A humvee would look pretty silly with ZSU on top, I would think. A humvee is also more expensive and harder to get than a pickup truck. Toyota pickups are also just about the most reliable vehicle available.

Humvees can be modified to carry lighter AA guns in the back, but you have to take off all the paneling and expose the crew anyway, so it's no different functionally from putting an AA gun on a pickup trick.

rudatron posted:

If your mounting an anti-infantry gun on the technical, the expectation is that you'll be using it on enemy emplacements, and therefore close enough to encounter return fire. Having no armor means its worthless for that role, because any returning fire will disable/destroy it.

using it to transport is obvs. fine, but its not a replacement for a proper mech-infantry vehicle. Its dumb.

AA guns are anti-infantry guns, and you can burst fire with decent accuracy from kilometers away. Small arms just don't have that kind of reach. The ZSU-23 can be mounted in the back of a pickup truck and has an effective range of 2 miles. At that distance, the only real threat is from very accurate anti-materiel rifles, or ATGMs. The kind of armor on a humvee meant to block bullets won't protect you from a missile anyway. And if you're behind cover with only the weapon exposed it's nearly impossible to hit at long range. It's the most cost effective solution for mechanizing a militia.

Pener Kropoopkin has issued a correction as of 04:55 on Jan 22, 2018

Pener Kropoopkin
Jan 30, 2013

Frijolero posted:

wow ISIS must've had a great time during Toyotathon

Pener Kropoopkin
Jan 30, 2013

ISIS could recruit fatties because they never have to get outside of a Toyota Hilux, so I doubt we'll have any problems.

Pener Kropoopkin
Jan 30, 2013

https://twitter.com/michaelh992/status/955066980935045121

Pener Kropoopkin
Jan 30, 2013

Jose posted:

is abu hajaar more or less competent that the standard american conscript i wonder

Their primary purpose is to be cannon fodder anyway, so it's equal. It's the hardcore veterans who are always the most valuable shock troops, not the volunteers from Belgium or the guys you press ganged for loitering in the wrong place & time.

paul_soccer10 posted:

What is Turkey's pretext to invade Afrin???

And doesn't Israel completely control Golan, so if Assad went into it they might consider that "agressive"

Turkey doesn't consider YPG to be distinct from the PKK, therefore Afrin is a terrorist statelet and needs to be pacified.

Israel does have a commanding control of the Golan Heights, but there are militias and ISIS which control territories along the border of the Golan - and when the state retakes those territories by moving in their forces then tensions are gonna get high.

Pener Kropoopkin has issued a correction as of 13:52 on Jan 23, 2018

Pener Kropoopkin
Jan 30, 2013

https://twitter.com/ZeinakhodrAljaz/status/955959626335506432

Alternatively, it could mean they're talking about a counter-offensive into the Turkish occupied zone between Afrin and Rojava, which would take the pressure off.

Pener Kropoopkin
Jan 30, 2013

If the YPG loses it means Afrin is going to be full of FSA Salafis, like another Idlib with Turkish flags.

So after 4 days of ground operations, the FSA only controls a few villages in isolated pockets along the North and Northwestern borders of Afrin. It didn't make that much sense why they'd be making more headway there than from the east, but this guy fills in the geographic situation.

https://twitter.com/QalaatAlMudiq/status/956135571663015937
https://twitter.com/QalaatAlMudiq/status/956141247823011846

Pener Kropoopkin has issued a correction as of 14:17 on Jan 24, 2018

Pener Kropoopkin
Jan 30, 2013

Jose posted:

are YPG doing so well because there are enough kurds for it and/or because they get enough western support or is it because they have a defined territory in Syria and thats all they're interested in? I'm just curious why they appear to be so successful compared to everyone else

its been ages since i looked at an up to date war map

YPG in Afrin can't get as much support from the West because there's nowhere for supplies to come in, except the few places on the Turkish side of the border where there's a Kurdish majority. Their real strength is political, and the ability to marshal & coordinate self-defense units. Having a concentrated and defined majority population is what really cements their power.

In the east it all came down to American air power and supplies, coupled with big open unpopulated territories where it's much easier to advance and take territory even while ISIS was booby trapping everything they could. If you mean, how can the YPG control all of that territory - then again their primary strength is political, and it's a non-sectarian politics which helps maintain cohesion.

Pener Kropoopkin
Jan 30, 2013

Jose posted:

i assume that assad and the YPG are essentially at a ceasefire as they both focus on different targets?

For the most part, yes. They've always had bigger fish to fry. It's also never been in the YPG's interest to directly confront SAA forces, because they need the possibility to make a deal for autonomy. The SAA has attacked YPG before, but it's been sporadic and never lasts long. That's why the SAA only controls a tiny sliver of Al-Hasakah city now, since the YPG took most of it in a counter-attack a few years ago.

Pener Kropoopkin
Jan 30, 2013

https://twitter.com/mutludc/status/956198875450179585

At 1:20 they survey the damage from an artillery shell coming through the roof of a house.

https://twitter.com/NorthernStork/status/956195977383350272

Pener Kropoopkin has issued a correction as of 17:32 on Jan 24, 2018

Pener Kropoopkin
Jan 30, 2013

https://twitter.com/SonKaleTurkiye2/status/956193272753524737

YPG hasn't been purely defensive, and has retaliated against Turkish artillery and air strikes. Rocket attacks into Turkey have been ongoing, and one of them hit a mosque in Kilis, killing 4 and injuring 20 people during prayers. Looking at the photo, it hit one of the domes.


e: https://twitter.com/24Aleppo/status/956185254590545920

Aleppo 24 correspondent says protection units (YPG) are moving in convoys across the border of state controlled territory and Afrin. If this is true, then I'm not sure if it's actually SAA entering Afrin, or if they're just letting SDF/YPG through government territory, or if it's both. In any case, reinforcements flowing into Afrin will mean the Turkish offensive will be way more difficult than it should have been - and there's a good chance the YPG will actually win.

Pener Kropoopkin has issued a correction as of 17:42 on Jan 24, 2018

Pener Kropoopkin
Jan 30, 2013

https://twitter.com/Dalatrm/status/956108246011531264

the spice must flow babee

e: https://twitter.com/HoseinMortada/status/956225094216486912

YPG in Afrin denies the Al-Mayadeen report that they agreed with the regime to let in the SAA. There must be some agreement reached though, if they're letting YPG travel through government territory.

Pener Kropoopkin has issued a correction as of 19:59 on Jan 24, 2018

Pener Kropoopkin
Jan 30, 2013

https://twitter.com/RudawEnglish/status/956505405374550016

It's good that this is finally happening, but if the low intensity war the Turks have been waging on the PKK isn't "an area of tension" then what the Hell is? Why didn't they suspend deliveries when the Turks invaded Syria for Operation Euphrates Shield? They're only doing this now because the Germans are afraid of their own Kurdish minority getting into fights with German Turks.

https://twitter.com/yenisafakEN/status/956503192899956738

This is what years of German arms shipments actually look like.

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Pener Kropoopkin
Jan 30, 2013

Lawman 0 posted:

We already saw them slap fighting once in the streets no?

German export Leopards have a much higher profile now that they're being used to attack the YPG directly. It's a public relations problem the German state won't be able to avoid.

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