Fantasy Baseball 2018: I Love Pitching

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Sports Argument Stadium > The Armchair Quarterback > Fantasy Baseball 2018: I Love Pitching

«‹›79 »

abelwingnut: Dec 23, 2002

It's no secret baseball took a turn for the dingers last season. Because of it, overall value for hitting took a dive to overall value for pitching. You could pick up any old Matt Olson it seemed, and it was almost impossible to find a reliable arm outside of the top 5. Will that continue? Or will pitchers find launch angle's kryptonite?

Some other random questions: Will Vlad come up and destroy the sport as we know it? Will Stanton hit 80? Will anyone draft Albert Pujols? Will Greg Bird play 40 games? Will Trea steal 60? Is Acuna the truth?

Discuss these and whatever other fantasy baseball questions or ideas in this thread. If you want me to add anything to this post, holla.

# ? Jan 28, 2018 21:43

Adbot: ADBOT LOVES YOU

# ? Apr 24, 2024 14:26

abelwingnut: Dec 23, 2002

So first team-specific question. I need to keep 6 of these players. $225 budget, 13 teams, OBP instead of AVG, SLG and QS added.

Bird - 5
C Taylor - 5
Correa - 30
K Davis - 13
Mookie - 40
Desmond - 5
Bogaerts - 30
Bruce - 5
Acuna - 5
Olson - 5
Eloy - 5
Vlad - 5
C Frazier - 5
Dahl - 5
K Broxton - 5
Brinson - 5
Barreto - 5
K Tucker - 5

Salazar - 5
Kopech - 5

Leaning toward Correa, Bird, Olson, Acuna, Eloy, and Vlad. I want to keep the three prospects because the league is insanely deep and I don't mind holding. I tend to play lots of daily matchups so bench spots aren't that important to me.

I guess my biggest question, then, is do I keep Correa? Taylor looks pretty drat great and is massively cheaper. I might be able to get Correa for about that price in the draft too. Not sure. Desmond at $5 is really tempting too. I need to dig in to see why he hit so many drat groundballs in Coors of all places. Almost certainly an approach issue. Khris is tempting too.

# ? Jan 28, 2018 21:49

ROCK THE HOUSE M.D.: Oct 9, 2003; I've got a case of malt liquor stashed in the trunk, Mr. Marvin Gaye on the CD. We are gonna get all the way down.

Pham is gonna go 30/30. Book it.

# ? Jan 28, 2018 21:53

Spoeank: Jul 16, 2003; That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it

In b4 rock the house md has 27 teams before march

# ? Jan 29, 2018 00:28

ROCK THE HOUSE M.D.: Oct 9, 2003; I've got a case of malt liquor stashed in the trunk, Mr. Marvin Gaye on the CD. We are gonna get all the way down.

Spoeank posted:

In b4 rock the house md has 27 teams before march

Haha nah I'm maxing out at 3 this year.

# ? Jan 29, 2018 00:32

Inspector_666: Oct 7, 2003; _{benny with the good hair}

In real early pitcher value stuff:

Josh Hader is gonna start the year in the bullpen.

Jimmy Nelson isn't due back until June at the earliest.

ROCK THE HOUSE M.D. posted:

Haha nah I'm maxing out at 3 this year.

I had 3 last year and it's definitely my max, I might even try to drop down to just 2 this season (not counting the weird league I'm in where we drafted ML teams so my lineup will pretty much set itself and I don't have to worry about the wire at all.)

# ? Jan 29, 2018 04:23

Twin Cinema: Jun 1, 2006; Playoffs are no big deal,
don't have a crap attack.

Abel Wingnut posted:

So first team-specific question. I need to keep 6 of these players. $225 budget, 13 teams, OBP instead of AVG, SLG and QS added.

Bird - 5
C Taylor - 5
Correa - 30
K Davis - 13
Mookie - 40
Desmond - 5
Bogaerts - 30
Bruce - 5
Acuna - 5
Olson - 5
Eloy - 5
Vlad - 5
C Frazier - 5
Dahl - 5
K Broxton - 5
Brinson - 5
Barreto - 5
K Tucker - 5

Salazar - 5
Kopech - 5

Leaning toward Correa, Bird, Olson, Acuna, Eloy, and Vlad. I want to keep the three prospects because the league is insanely deep and I don't mind holding. I tend to play lots of daily matchups so bench spots aren't that important to me.

I guess my biggest question, then, is do I keep Correa? Taylor looks pretty drat great and is massively cheaper. I might be able to get Correa for about that price in the draft too. Not sure. Desmond at $5 is really tempting too. I need to dig in to see why he hit so many drat groundballs in Coors of all places. Almost certainly an approach issue. Khris is tempting too.

I'd keep Correa. Mind you, I am not sure what top players usually go for with a 225 budget, but I feel like 30 may be underpaying for him.

# ? Jan 29, 2018 04:26

coronaball: Feb 6, 2005; You're finished, pork-o-nazi!

I will restart the $20 goon league after the Super Bowl.

# ? Jan 30, 2018 05:25

Spoeank: Jul 16, 2003; That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it

The last couple of seasons I created a decent list for bounceback candidates for the site I wrote for. I've since stopped writing about fantasy baseball but it's still a good exercise we can utilize.

Two years ago it tagged Cy Young Winner Rick Porcello and last year it narrowed in on Robbie Ray. It was based on:

Pitched at least 100 innings (decent enough sample size)
K-BB% higher than 15% (among the best at striking out batters & preventing walks)
BABIP over .300 (unluckier than league average)
ERA over 3.50 (below average in most fantasy baseball leagues)

This year I tweaked it a bit to narrow down the criteria and to account for the biggest issue with it, which was too many goddamn home runs. I added the following criteria:

HR/FB under 15%.

Anyway, here's the list, sorted by lowest to highest xFIP last year.

Lance McCullers
Chris Archer
Aaron Nola
Jon Gray
Jeff Samardzija
Jose Quintana
J.A. Happ
Josh Tomlin
Rick Porcello

(Jimmy Nelson had a 3.49 ERA and barely didn't make it, and he's honestly my favorite pitcher of all of these).

Of note: Nola and Gray were just okay. I'm pretty sure 2015 had Quintana in addition to Porcello, but I can't know because the poo poo rear end site lost everything before January 2017. It tags a pitcher with a certain profile, but it's one that might be worth a late flier pick if they fall into your lap, mostly because their top level stats were incredibly unlucky.

Like Fantasy 411's List of 12, it's not a definite list, but at least a good list of pitchers that should have a better year than 2017.

# ? Jan 30, 2018 06:11

resident: Dec 22, 2005; WE WERE ALL UP IN THAT SHIT LIKE A MUTHAFUCKA. IT'S CLEANER THAN A BROKE DICK DOG.

I got invited to join a freshly created 30 team, 35 man roster dynasty league. We just started our draft today and I got Bregman and Benintendi with the 26th/35th picks. I feel like that�s a pretty solid start considering the draft position but I feel like I�m in way over my head.

# ? Jan 30, 2018 06:57

Spoeank: Jul 16, 2003; That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it

Your draft is 1,050 players deep?!?!?!?!

# ? Jan 30, 2018 07:02

resident: Dec 22, 2005; WE WERE ALL UP IN THAT SHIT LIKE A MUTHAFUCKA. IT'S CLEANER THAN A BROKE DICK DOG.

Spoeank posted:

Your draft is 1,050 players deep?!?!?!?!

The good news is that I get to pick all the players with funny names and it will likely be completely inconsequential to my success. The bad news is we didn�t get to pick custom team names, and had to pick MiLB team names for divisional creation purposes. The other good news is that I got the Baby Cakes for my team name.

E: the other other good news is that with a 12 hr time limit per pick our draft will probably take the entire remaining 2 months before the season starts so I don�t have to join a bunch of leagues to keep chasing the draft dragon

resident fucked around with this message at 07:23 on Jan 30, 2018

# ? Jan 30, 2018 07:16

Rand alPaul: Feb 3, 2010; by Nyc_Tattoo

resident posted:

I got invited to join a freshly created 30 team, 35 man roster dynasty league. We just started our draft today and I got Bregman and Benintendi with the 26th/35th picks. I feel like that�s a pretty solid start considering the draft position but I feel like I�m in way over my head.

Holy poo poo that's a lot of teams and a lot of players.

# ? Jan 31, 2018 03:41

resident: Dec 22, 2005; WE WERE ALL UP IN THAT SHIT LIKE A MUTHAFUCKA. IT'S CLEANER THAN A BROKE DICK DOG.

What is Ian Happs role going to be this year? I retardedly drafted him without even realizing he�s not slated in the everyday starting lineup. Hopefully he�s at least a 500AB utility man.

# ? Jan 31, 2018 05:11

mid: Aug 2, 2002; Bang.

resident posted:

What is Ian Happs role going to be this year? I retardedly drafted him without even realizing he�s not slated in the everyday starting lineup. Hopefully he�s at least a 500AB utility man.

I'd guess super utility, similar to Baez but with less flexibility. The Cubs lineup is still pretty crowded but I think they are going to want the defense of Almora/Heyward in center and right field more often due to their weaker pitching which leaves Zobrist/Happ/Schwarber. Keeping in mind injuries too, I would say 500 AB is fair to project.

# ? Jan 31, 2018 19:20

resident: Dec 22, 2005; WE WERE ALL UP IN THAT SHIT LIKE A MUTHAFUCKA. IT'S CLEANER THAN A BROKE DICK DOG.

What are your guys' favorite research websites or podcasts? ESPN, Yahoo, & MLB all seem to have gone downhill recently.

# ? Feb 1, 2018 01:51

Spoeank: Jul 16, 2003; That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it

For podcasts, CBS and Sleeper and the Bust are tops.

For websites, I dunno, fangraphs?

# ? Feb 1, 2018 01:55

ChiTownEddie: Mar 26, 2010; Awesome beer, no pants.
Join the Legion.

Yeah, I pretty much just listen to CBS and Sleeper and the Bust (fangraphs) and use the fangraphs site.

# ? Feb 1, 2018 03:57

Spoeank: Jul 16, 2003; That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it

Welp eno is leaving sleeper and the bust

# ? Feb 1, 2018 18:05

Inspector_666: Oct 7, 2003; _{benny with the good hair}

resident posted:

What are your guys' favorite research websites or podcasts? ESPN, Yahoo, & MLB all seem to have gone downhill recently.

pitcherlist.com for anything pitcher related, and their in-season Buy/Sell columns on both pitchers and hitters are good. I don't pay much attention to their batter rankings though, because it's generally pretty obvious stuff.

Sleeper and the Bust is the only podcast I listened to with regularity last season, although I did tweet at Ray Flowers (@BaseballGuys) a lot, too.

# ? Feb 1, 2018 18:09

Doltos: Dec 28, 2005; 🤌🤌🤌

Last year's pitching was loving awful holy cow. Every Monday I'd watch one of my starters give up 9 runs and ruin my ERA for the week and then somehow win it when my opponent ruined his ERA even more.

# ? Feb 1, 2018 18:40

Inspector_666: Oct 7, 2003; _{benny with the good hair}

Doltos posted:

Last year's pitching was loving awful holy cow. Every Monday I'd watch one of my starters give up 9 runs and ruin my ERA for the week and then somehow win it when my opponent ruined his ERA even more.

It was also super-easy to get value guys last year because nobody changed their expectations and still thought a 4.00 ERA was garbage poo poo that had no place in a starting rotation.

# ? Feb 1, 2018 18:46

ChiTownEddie: Mar 26, 2010; Awesome beer, no pants.
Join the Legion.

My league is roto with IP, ERA, WHIP, K and 162 start limit. I have no idea how I am going to draft pitchers this season after last year's disaster. This format makes the elites bonkers good because their IP/S is so much better than everyone else.

# ? Feb 1, 2018 19:24

Twin Cinema: Jun 1, 2006; Playoffs are no big deal,
don't have a crap attack.

Man, before I read the predraft rankings, I thought I could get Trea Turner a little bit lower because of his injury last year.

Nope.

# ? Feb 2, 2018 03:22

kensei: Dec 27, 2007; He has come home, where he belongs. The Ancient Mariner returns to lead his first team to glory, forever and ever. Amen!

Twin Cinema posted:

Man, before I read the predraft rankings, I thought I could get Trea Turner a little bit lower because of his injury last year.

Nope.

I got offered a King's Ransom for him in our keeper league, but no way!

# ? Feb 2, 2018 03:25

resident: Dec 22, 2005; WE WERE ALL UP IN THAT SHIT LIKE A MUTHAFUCKA. IT'S CLEANER THAN A BROKE DICK DOG.

1/3 of the way through our 30 man dynasty draft. It's a H2H points league so I'm glad we don't have to worry about categories, but not really sure how I feel since I've never been in a league this large. A lot of guys are reaching for top MiLB prospects early while I'm at least looking for guys that are starting this year with some future upside. Hopefully I can compete now & grab rising prospects as they transition up from Rookie & A ball.

code:

C 
1B    Logan Morrison 11/325
2B    Cesar Hernandez  12/336
3B    Alex Bregman 1/26
SS    JP Crawford  9/265
OF    Andrew Benintendi  2/36
OF    Ian Happ 4/96
OF    Mitch Haniger  7/205
UT

SP    Jake Arrieta  3/85
SP    David Price  5/145
SP    Brad Peacock  8/216
SP    Jimmy Nelson 10/276
SP
RP    Craig Kimbrel 6/156
RP
RP
RP

# ? Feb 3, 2018 01:09

Schweinhund: Oct 23, 2004

Yahoo doesn't open for 2 weeks, and Shohei Ohtani is split into 2 players. Total poo poo show.

# ? Feb 3, 2018 02:09

Doltos: Dec 28, 2005; 🤌🤌🤌

Schweinhund posted:

Yahoo doesn't open for 2 weeks, and Shohei Ohtani is split into 2 players. Total poo poo show.

Watch him be mediocre to bad at batting and just average at pitching.

# ? Feb 3, 2018 06:13

Rand alPaul: Feb 3, 2010; by Nyc_Tattoo

Does anyone know when ESPN's leagues will be back up so I can email owners about returning?

# ? Feb 3, 2018 06:43

kensei: Dec 27, 2007; He has come home, where he belongs. The Ancient Mariner returns to lead his first team to glory, forever and ever. Amen!

Rand alPaul posted:

Does anyone know when ESPN's leagues will be back up so I can email owners about returning?

Usually takes at least a week, I noticed today they are doing the annual prep.

# ? Feb 3, 2018 07:12

abelwingnut: Dec 23, 2002

any idea what espn�s doing with otani?

# ? Feb 3, 2018 14:25

Pandanaut: May 26, 2007; goin to the fuckin moon

Schweinhund posted:

Yahoo doesn't open for 2 weeks, and Shohei Ohtani is split into 2 players. Total poo poo show.

Yeah, Yahoo is getting crushed on Twitter. It especially looks bad that their reasoning for Otani was �our engineers� and Fantrax solved it already apparently?

The three to four months excuse also doesn�t hold water with everyone knowing of Otani and his skillset for years now.

# ? Feb 4, 2018 14:32

resident: Dec 22, 2005; WE WERE ALL UP IN THAT SHIT LIKE A MUTHAFUCKA. IT'S CLEANER THAN A BROKE DICK DOG.

YAhoo is waiting to roll out their fantasy plus option that allows you to pay $10 to be able to play Ohtani as a hitter or pitcher.

# ? Feb 4, 2018 19:13

Rand alPaul: Feb 3, 2010; by Nyc_Tattoo

kensei posted:

Usually takes at least a week, I noticed today they are doing the annual prep.

I am kicking myself because I almost sent out an email to league members gauging their interest and I put it off until the weekend. Oh well!

# ? Feb 4, 2018 22:21

Popete: Oct 6, 2009; This will make sure you don't suggest to the KDz
That he should grow greens instead of crushing on MCs; Grimey Drawer

I've never done fantasy baseball is there a primer anyone can recommend? Any Goon leagues I could get in on?

# ? Feb 5, 2018 04:59

Chief McHeath: Apr 23, 2002

I don't think anyone has started a thread for joining leagues yet, but there will be one eventually or it'll be done in here.

That said, I'd be down to join a goon league or perhaps take over a team. I'd like to have a second team that's not a public league. I'm no flake I promise, I'm in a non-money but competitive 12-team league entering it's tenth season that's had about 75-80% ownership retention.

# ? Feb 5, 2018 11:35

IcePhoenix: Sep 18, 2005; Take me to your Shida

There's usually a little turnover in our dynasty-lite league. I'm definitely expecting one owner to drop this year but we'll see.

I went to the Baseball page out of habit this morning now that the Super Bowl is done and this was really depressing

# ? Feb 5, 2018 14:53

Inspector_666: Oct 7, 2003; _{benny with the good hair}

I constantly shill for pitcherlist.com in these threads and I'm here to do it again because they just redid their website and it's real pretty now.

https://twitter.com/ThePitcherList/status/960875879864946688

# ? Feb 6, 2018 16:57

ChiTownEddie: Mar 26, 2010; Awesome beer, no pants.
Join the Legion.

omg my league just poo poo itself in rage because someone came up with a suggestion on how to adjust our keeper system.
HOW DARE SOMEONE MAKE A SUGGESTION.

Semi-related: do you all struggle with roto participation? Often the bottom couple or even half stop paying attention and it affects the league. Any ideas on how to provide incentive to give some token effort?

# ? Feb 7, 2018 21:57

Adbot: ADBOT LOVES YOU

# ? Apr 24, 2024 14:26

Chief McHeath: Apr 23, 2002

Replace them.

# ? Feb 8, 2018 13:47

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Sports Argument Stadium > The Armchair Quarterback > Fantasy Baseball 2018: I Love Pitching

«‹›79 »