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Natural 20
Sep 17, 2007

Wearer of Compasses. Slayer of Gods. Champion of the Colosseum. Heart of the Void.
Saviour of Hallownest.
Sorry, I need to get my bearings.

I'm currently unsure if my powers functioned correctly over N3 so I'm making a few queries about that with the mods.

I would nominate Bif over TF.

I'm at work, I'll do some detailed casing tonight.

I think 50 is scum and his attempt to murder me immediately without even attempting to figure out what was going on in game is pretty damning.

I'm not dropping a vote until I at least know what happened on my N3 and probably won't until we have more of an idea of what's going on in general.

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Natural 20
Sep 17, 2007

Wearer of Compasses. Slayer of Gods. Champion of the Colosseum. Heart of the Void.
Saviour of Hallownest.
What motivation do I need to understand?

You're scum, I know you're scum, you thought you had me dead yesterday, but I had a trump card which was my superdoc claim.

We hammered JJ faster than you had time to react so you couldn't just vig me.

So you tried it as soon as possible this morning without realising that you'd lost your presidency.

It screams of panic.

Let's be clear, one of my major motivations behind saying 50 was scum yesterday is that I thought he was faking his role and I was entirely correct.

Natural 20
Sep 17, 2007

Wearer of Compasses. Slayer of Gods. Champion of the Colosseum. Heart of the Void.
Saviour of Hallownest.

Bifauxnen posted:

hm, hey Nat, since you declared me your senpai, does keeping the protection up still count as "doing something after school", even if you don't need to actively send any actions about it to Pod?

My role changed. I hyperdoc both of us as long as we walk together.

I can give you the flavour on why that's the case if you need me to.

Natural 20
Sep 17, 2007

Wearer of Compasses. Slayer of Gods. Champion of the Colosseum. Heart of the Void.
Saviour of Hallownest.

50 pounds of bread posted:

If you think making up a role to ensure I had control over an unknown power is scummy, I have a bridge to sell you.

Yes it is, especially if you then do a bunch of scummy things in the role. Like trying to murder a person who rightfully questioned whether your role was real.

Natural 20
Sep 17, 2007

Wearer of Compasses. Slayer of Gods. Champion of the Colosseum. Heart of the Void.
Saviour of Hallownest.

Bifauxnen posted:

uh, sure, can't hurt to claim flavor when you already claimed a role I guess

You noticed me, when we're together I feel invincible, like nothing can ever harm us. But when we're apart I feel so scared and alone.

Natural 20
Sep 17, 2007

Wearer of Compasses. Slayer of Gods. Champion of the Colosseum. Heart of the Void.
Saviour of Hallownest.

Bifauxnen posted:

this is starting to sound a bit too good to be true though I gotta tell ya. Before it just sounded like that Seraph Knight role Birb dug up for MGS modified to be a 3P, but now we're like invulnerable together? whaa?

I assume it's because if I fail to convince my senpai to trust me the role is garbage. Additionally it also nerfs my senpai since it effectively jails them each night.

Natural 20
Sep 17, 2007

Wearer of Compasses. Slayer of Gods. Champion of the Colosseum. Heart of the Void.
Saviour of Hallownest.

The Ninth Layer posted:

????

This makes it sound like you have some other action at night besides the one you claimed. I thought you just targeted Bif at the start of the game and then your ability was Good to Go. What did you do on night 3 that needs checking up on??

1. Actually read D3.

2. My role tells me if someone tries to hurt Bif. On D2 I got a message saying I'd stopped something N1, which was a flerp vig. Flerp tried again on N2. On D2 I didn't get a result at all, be it positive or negative on someone trying to hurt Bif. I queried Pera about it and it turns out it was a mod error and I should have been given a message on D3 saying that someone tried to kill Bif N2.

Today I emerged with a change to my powerset and no message from N3. I checked with Pera again and was told that my message for N3 was that nobody tried to harm Bif.

That's why I needed clarification and was confused in general at the day open.

Natural 20
Sep 17, 2007

Wearer of Compasses. Slayer of Gods. Champion of the Colosseum. Heart of the Void.
Saviour of Hallownest.

Dead Cow posted:

Did you pick Bif, or was Bif assigned to you

I picked Bif D1. I made a large number of posts over the day hinting at this.

Natural 20
Sep 17, 2007

Wearer of Compasses. Slayer of Gods. Champion of the Colosseum. Heart of the Void.
Saviour of Hallownest.

Dead Cow posted:

Because she actually cased people? And made points?

Literally anybody in the world can do this. The cases she made D1 and D2 are null because a chimp with a typewriter could have made a coherent case on almost anyone those days. Just making cases isn't a town tell and never has been. I've seen scum make absolutely stellar cases.

The cases D3 were on me and Sal. The case on Sal was that Sal was posting white noise. This pings me because early Sal is basically the easiest case to make in Mafia and is usually a trivial lynch to forward. I know because it's literally something I did:

Get a new Avatar Mafia, D2, Nat20 as Scum, Sal as Town


The case on me subsequently is because I laughed off a moronic statement where a mafia player literally wonders why a moderator for a vote might not want to bias the results of that vote.

But to take it more seriously. Her case on me was this:

quote:

Natural 20: There were a lot of posts about finding the president but none about finding scum. Didn't even vote for president. Never commented about how 50 totally has a made up role until now. Has been really impartial until that last post. Like on day 2 at some point I checked the OP to see if Natural 20 was a co-mod. Compared to chic and LCR (below), Natural 20 is actually trying, which is maybe makes him (?) more scummy in my eyes of the three. Also his biggest scum read is someone we cannot vote out, for a reason that he could have mentioned on day 2 while Natural 20 was spending time/effort counting the nominations. I'm not saying that 50 is town or scum, but calling him scum will have little immediate outcome.

So the complaints read as "Nat20 didn't make reads D1/D2," which is mad because about 90% of the thread didn't make cases D1 and D2 I specifically avoided doing so so we'd actually have a president at the end.

The secondary case is then that "Nat20 calling 50 scum isn't helpful," when I was entirely correct about 50 lying about his role. Even were I not correct, pointing out that the president might well be scum does have an immediate outcome because it means that we ideally take presidential directives into more scrutiny.

I brought a lot of D3 on myself because I thought this case was absurd and laughed it off, but it's a bad case to begin with. When I pull my trump card of being a doc she has nothing to actually say and doesn't case anyone further despite being around.

I'm not going to nom TF for president, I have a null read on her at best. By comparative Bif is confirmed town for me and imo is doing herself a massive disservice by conflating this presidential role with the role that she had in Soldiers.

Natural 20
Sep 17, 2007

Wearer of Compasses. Slayer of Gods. Champion of the Colosseum. Heart of the Void.
Saviour of Hallownest.

Dead Cow posted:

Token Female was basically saying about you and Sal the same things I had said about you both.

Are you actually confirmed with Bif, or is it just you're just super super sure

I'm confirmed. Bif is town.

Natural 20
Sep 17, 2007

Wearer of Compasses. Slayer of Gods. Champion of the Colosseum. Heart of the Void.
Saviour of Hallownest.

50 pounds of bread posted:

So now you're a bulletproof cop jailer guy eh?

## vote nat20

I gain the alignment of the person who's my senpai.

I explained this with my claim D3.

Natural 20
Sep 17, 2007

Wearer of Compasses. Slayer of Gods. Champion of the Colosseum. Heart of the Void.
Saviour of Hallownest.

Bifauxnen posted:

but didnt we all change in the new thread? what exactly is my alignment now?

My powers changed, my alignment didn't. I'm still town.

Natural 20
Sep 17, 2007

Wearer of Compasses. Slayer of Gods. Champion of the Colosseum. Heart of the Void.
Saviour of Hallownest.

Bifauxnen posted:

right, but how do you know my alignment didn't change?

I assumed mine would change if yours did?

Natural 20
Sep 17, 2007

Wearer of Compasses. Slayer of Gods. Champion of the Colosseum. Heart of the Void.
Saviour of Hallownest.

GeneX posted:

I mean, if we're assuming anyone unaccompanied (or accompanied by scum? maybe? I dunno if bear attacks are a game mechanic or a scum mechanic) dies, we can just use this as a 2nd lynch since we'll have an odd number of players

You know if we do this there's no way scum are using the NK.

Which seems like a game mechanic oversight if it's in.

Additionally it means my own role becomes fairly pointless.

I'm betting money that scum can kill through the buddy system in some way.

Natural 20
Sep 17, 2007

Wearer of Compasses. Slayer of Gods. Champion of the Colosseum. Heart of the Void.
Saviour of Hallownest.

Token Female posted:

Don't vote for me or you'll be sorry.

Ominous.

Natural 20
Sep 17, 2007

Wearer of Compasses. Slayer of Gods. Champion of the Colosseum. Heart of the Void.
Saviour of Hallownest.

##vote Token Female

Natural 20
Sep 17, 2007

Wearer of Compasses. Slayer of Gods. Champion of the Colosseum. Heart of the Void.
Saviour of Hallownest.

Token Female posted:

What I was trying to communicate is that, making that soft claim like Juchero did is like saying, "Don't vote for me or you'll be sorry." I guess that wasn't clear?

The inverted commas would have helped.

##unvote

Natural 20
Sep 17, 2007

Wearer of Compasses. Slayer of Gods. Champion of the Colosseum. Heart of the Void.
Saviour of Hallownest.

SalTheBard posted:

Of the people who played the only people who surprised me with post count was Tobbs and Hal. Usually they are both fairly middle of the pack when it comes to post count but this game both were just bleh.

Everyone else (that I've played with before) was pretty consistent. I don't really like meta scum hunting although to be fair it would've worked decent-ish in the last game I played.

Hal's actually had a few games recently where he's kinda just not shown up to bat in the way I'd expect out of him.

Anyway, colour me concerned about TF's seemingly inevitable presidency.

I find it hard to describe, but her posting comes across as someone who's finally drawn scum for the first time in a while and really wants to give it their all to show how good they are.

Still think we should kill 50. I think he's scum because of the lying and the lovely presidency as well as the lovely push on me but even if he's town at this point he's getting close to Infinitum in terms of gambits that needlessly mislead town and then don't pay off.

##vote 50 pounds of bread

Natural 20
Sep 17, 2007

Wearer of Compasses. Slayer of Gods. Champion of the Colosseum. Heart of the Void.
Saviour of Hallownest.

give head or get dead posted:

Im following the logic of would a scum play this risky and loosely as 50 has, which is why I’m convinced he’s town. I can see why you want to kill him though. I first was thinking lynch all liars too, but I’ve kinda cooled on him quite a bit since

Let's say you're scum this game. You get an amazing NL D1 and N1 you get a pair of kills on town players. If you're so inclined why wouldn't you play a more dangerous game?

Even if you have no intel on what the presidency is and you know that your man is going to die from it, you've still got a man who can't die for 2 full days.

Even if he gets killed as long as he's the center of discussion your team can sit back and just murder people and force MLs for two days. By the time everyone knows he's scum, let's say over a two day period, it's D4 and you can drop a man no problem. Since you've minimum got 4 kills or so for 1 of your own. In most mafia games those are good numbers for scum.

Hell you can even bus the poo poo out of him if you want to get your remaining people confirmed town.

It's the exact kind of poo poo that I would do and I don't put it past 50 who likes to play mafia that way.

Natural 20
Sep 17, 2007

Wearer of Compasses. Slayer of Gods. Champion of the Colosseum. Heart of the Void.
Saviour of Hallownest.
I think Asiina's response to that from the last thread was that "Scum president doesn't stop us from getting his buddies?"

But it inhibits it, 50 as president was able to center an entire discussion around me for rightly calling out a lie which eventually forced out a Doc claim from me and through his "everyone make a pair of reads" system was able to easily identify people with opinions that weren't in line with the thread to subsequently single out.

Further, just from an odds perspective, given that scum are a minority in a thread, if we assume 7 scum in a game of 27, removing a scum player from detection you drop the odds of scum being found at random from around 26% to 23%. Whilst percentage perception might cause you to believe that this is inconsequential, it's just another benefit on top of the ones I've already listed.

It was a good scum gambit and only got scuppered because of the thread change. If it was a town gambit it was actively bad because people based arguments and actions around the idea of a giant coplist coming back later on.

Natural 20
Sep 17, 2007

Wearer of Compasses. Slayer of Gods. Champion of the Colosseum. Heart of the Void.
Saviour of Hallownest.

Bifauxnen posted:

oh hey Nat, clearly you think 50's the best lunch but what do you think of the Juch case vs the Dead cow case, and how close to they come to overtaking 50 in your mind

Juchero

The Juchero case is absolute garbage.

Broadly it calls out Juchero in my mind for being correct about literally everything they said over 3 days and then paints it as scummy.

A leg of the case is literally that Juchero is scummy for claiming his role has changed and declaring the results of his previous role.

What's scummier, Juchero keeping quiet, then declaring that he was a watcher for a pair of days with unverifiable results that he could easily have faked and now is something completely different or being up front with as much information as is reasonable to give.

The other leg of that line is that Juchero has given away that he still has a power role, which again is mystifying to me as criticism given the number of power roles that have already been declared.

Beyond that, "He's not scumhunting too much," is a nothing. It's always a nothing. Our meta on the forums is to go after people who aren't posting hilariously detailed cases all the time so scum always post hilariously detailed cases and then get away with everything for days.

I don't particularly care if someone isn't saying much as long as what they say is insightful or helpful. In a single question, Juchero saying "Am I scum or lazy town," actually offers a decent question against the case against him that's imo still unanswered.

DC

The Dead Cow case is much better. Cow initially took the line I did D3, that increasing the number of posts required is scum favoured and then weirdly applied it in retrospect to a situation that logically couldn't have worked.

A scumtell for me is often that a case will be posted that's confused not because the person hasn't been reading but because the person doesn't really understand what they're posting themself. That's because they've got an extra channel of information informing them on opinions they should have and struggle to reconcile between that area of information and the one from the thread.

The adamant arguing in favour of the case from DC makes it worse. Instead of assuming that there might be something wrong for us to so heavily disagree, DC holds on to the case and eventually mea culpas a fair bit later. My thought is that scumchat lagtime at the moment.

So that's where I stand.

Relative to 50, I could vote DC, I think it's the wrong vote today since I think 50 is a slam dunk, but I wouldn't hate myself for it at the end.

Natural 20
Sep 17, 2007

Wearer of Compasses. Slayer of Gods. Champion of the Colosseum. Heart of the Void.
Saviour of Hallownest.

flerp posted:

i dont want to walk with anybody

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3MxryIbgQog

Natural 20
Sep 17, 2007

Wearer of Compasses. Slayer of Gods. Champion of the Colosseum. Heart of the Void.
Saviour of Hallownest.

50 pounds of bread posted:

Nat20 point out 1 time I made the discussion about you calling me out for lying.

Hint: it doesn't exist.

I'm calling you scum because you claimed doc to get out of a lynch, took an administrative role towards electing a president, and your role has evolved to an insane super bulletproofcopwatcherjailor.

Your entire case is based off of fitty lied and townies died.

50 pounds of bread posted:

Administrative role was an easy way to build cred while refusing yourself from the situation.

Note that i didn't say anything about gulag calling me out as well.

Admin role is literally one of the major reasons I almost died and I'm smart enough to see that it was going to be a big problem for me D3. I did it anyway because you're all absolutely terrible at organising yourselves.

I like by the way, how I managed to magically know I was going to almost die D3 and set breadcrumbs and corroborations up days ahead of time in that regard. If you think I'm scum then Flerp is almost certainly also scum. (Who lied about targetting Bif two nights in a row to clear me? Why not just one?)

My entire case is that you a) lied b) pushed a mislynch c) consolidated the thread around terrible argumentation d) tried to vig me today when you realised you'd hosed up big time.

imo that's a pretty solid case.

Not moving my vote. You guys want to lynch someone, you lynch 50.

Natural 20
Sep 17, 2007

Wearer of Compasses. Slayer of Gods. Champion of the Colosseum. Heart of the Void.
Saviour of Hallownest.

SalTheBard posted:

This one is tough. Its hard to decide. I don't want to vote Nat20, but it's mainly because I like playing with him. I liked the case on Juchero. I can't decide if DC is frustrated town (and Lord knows I've been there) or scum. I wasn't really wild about TNLs post either.

Basically Sal, you're town, it's obvious. But you're also an easy lynch target because of your early town meta. I would strongly recommend examining the people who've been going hard after you.

Anyway I'm sleeping now.

Haven't seen anything to need me to move my vote.

Natural 20
Sep 17, 2007

Wearer of Compasses. Slayer of Gods. Champion of the Colosseum. Heart of the Void.
Saviour of Hallownest.
I walked home with my Bifu.

I've never been happier.

Natural 20
Sep 17, 2007

Wearer of Compasses. Slayer of Gods. Champion of the Colosseum. Heart of the Void.
Saviour of Hallownest.

flerp posted:

i dont want to walk with anybody

Natural 20
Sep 17, 2007

Wearer of Compasses. Slayer of Gods. Champion of the Colosseum. Heart of the Void.
Saviour of Hallownest.

Tired Moritz posted:

people keep saying that the everyone hold hands solution is too simple but maybe this game really is simple

maybe if we all hold hands, we unlock the secret route.

I'd be willing to experiment with this.

Although that means we'd have to NL today to get an even number of people.

Natural 20
Sep 17, 2007

Wearer of Compasses. Slayer of Gods. Champion of the Colosseum. Heart of the Void.
Saviour of Hallownest.

Asiina posted:


Why are you making such a strong town read on Sal? He's actually on my list of scumspects. How is it obvious?


I've been in every single game Sal has played on the forums. I have a strong meta read that he's town because his posting is similar to a fair few games I've seen him in. Specifically in his defense of himself.

Natural 20
Sep 17, 2007

Wearer of Compasses. Slayer of Gods. Champion of the Colosseum. Heart of the Void.
Saviour of Hallownest.
Hey guys, my style of mafia play is that I'm always town and you should never question me.

Natural 20
Sep 17, 2007

Wearer of Compasses. Slayer of Gods. Champion of the Colosseum. Heart of the Void.
Saviour of Hallownest.
Imo we go for people who went home alone.

Scum can probably defy the mechanic, but obtaining confirmation on that would be good.

Natural 20
Sep 17, 2007

Wearer of Compasses. Slayer of Gods. Champion of the Colosseum. Heart of the Void.
Saviour of Hallownest.

Juchero posted:

I went home alone, and tracked someone.

Yeah, there will be plenty of town power roles going home alone, but I think scum obviously have an incentive in this game to claim a town power role so they can operate uninhibited.

If I were to baselessly setup spec then what I'd probably have is the regular NK that's subject to walk home rules and then a super NK that either has a number of charges or has a cooldown. If I were to baselessly speculate, I'd probably set the cooldown time to around two days and the charges to be two or three with opportunities to regain charges as the game continues.

Natural 20
Sep 17, 2007

Wearer of Compasses. Slayer of Gods. Champion of the Colosseum. Heart of the Void.
Saviour of Hallownest.
Holding my vote at the moment in case people want to try hands across America as that would require a no lnch.

Natural 20
Sep 17, 2007

Wearer of Compasses. Slayer of Gods. Champion of the Colosseum. Heart of the Void.
Saviour of Hallownest.

I think that you're tactically correct in the long term.

I think as a one off there are two benefits:

The first is information on the walking home process that we otherwise don't have. If nobody dies we can reasonably assume that the restriction placed on scum from us performing the action is powerful, even if it only happens because they withold the NK.

The second is gambling on peragame rules where I think there's a good chance that there are different stage 3s to the game that trigger based on seperate conditionals and everyone going home together might be one.

The reason I think this is because I'm fairly convinced that my role was customised based on my play and interaction with Bif in stage 1, I know for certain that my flavour is being customised based on what I'm saying in thread.

I certainly don't think that these benefits can't be outweighed and I'm leaning towards agreeing with your Cat case, but I think it merits at least a little more discussion.

Natural 20
Sep 17, 2007

Wearer of Compasses. Slayer of Gods. Champion of the Colosseum. Heart of the Void.
Saviour of Hallownest.

Juchero posted:

Oh I tracked someone who ended up visiting Nat 20.

Sorry I haven't posted much, all of yesterday was utter chaos for me.

If I die tonight I would keep an eye on that person. One thing I didn't consider was a strongman whose downside is that it's on a timer.

Anyway, I feel like I've been a little lazy today but I think Asiina's argumentation was really solid and I honestly don't have all that much to add.

curiousCat posted:

asiina's case seems to boil down almost exclusively to "why isn't cat posting reasoning to back up her opinions??" which is just like... ok, I'm still posting, I'm still offering opinions, I mainly work off gut instincts and just grinning at people till they get unnerved so that's not really... a thing that I do? I post votes, I state some opinions, but like... I don't just shout out everything I feel about everyone. sorry???

besides that, I think it's kind of disengenuous to ignore the thread at large by posting poo poo like "wow at least she's playing mafia halfway through day2!!" which... yeah, that's when almost the entire thread started playing the game instead of futzing around with elects.

other than that... saying I'm ok with votes and then going back to work isn't anything, it's just a lot of noise.

curiousCat posted:

Which parts of the case did you find compelling, TF? Maybe I can address those separately.

Agree with Asiina that we shouldn't nolynch just because we're at even numbers, that's a bit daft. Don't really buy Juchero claim without any explanation of who they picked and why, don't reallly buy Sal claim but that's because I never really buy anything coming out of Sal's mouth

That's the extent of the Cat response so far. It's not really a justification. Working based on gut is fine, I do it all the time, but without any sort of meaningful analysis it's basically impossible to judge someone's gut at all. Is it town but misguided? Is it a case that you wouldn't see without explanation?

Mostly I feel that one of the most common and often best responses to a well justified case is to just claim that someone doesn't "get" how you're playing. You make a player doubt their entire rationality in order to stop them from voting you and hope that people who buy your meta claim come in to help. I realise the irony of talking about this in the context of my hard town read on Sal, but if I didn't specifically know how Sal plays I'd have him high on my list as well.

Absent a meaningful response I think the case from Asiina continues to stand and I think it's the best written case at the moment and lies in line with my gut.

##vote CuriousCat

That's -4

Natural 20
Sep 17, 2007

Wearer of Compasses. Slayer of Gods. Champion of the Colosseum. Heart of the Void.
Saviour of Hallownest.
Sorry -3 I didn't refresh.

Natural 20
Sep 17, 2007

Wearer of Compasses. Slayer of Gods. Champion of the Colosseum. Heart of the Void.
Saviour of Hallownest.

Iron Chef Ramen posted:

For what it's worth, I think Juchero is totally town, just dumb.

Yeah I don't buy scum would give away that result absolutely unprompted.

They might fake it. But it's a weird thing to fake.

Natural 20
Sep 17, 2007

Wearer of Compasses. Slayer of Gods. Champion of the Colosseum. Heart of the Void.
Saviour of Hallownest.
Hey remember when I said that postcount floors were usually anti-town as a mechanic and a bunch of people laughed at me?

Yeah gently caress you guys.

Natural 20
Sep 17, 2007

Wearer of Compasses. Slayer of Gods. Champion of the Colosseum. Heart of the Void.
Saviour of Hallownest.
Bif chan.

I..

Ihopewecanholdhandsagaintonight.

Natural 20
Sep 17, 2007

Wearer of Compasses. Slayer of Gods. Champion of the Colosseum. Heart of the Void.
Saviour of Hallownest.

Tired Moritz posted:

Kinda weird that bif/nat20/tnl arent voting anyone yet.

I'm voting Cat.

Like you just suddenly appearing fingering me as scum and then whining about us not talking about the mechanic when that's exactly what I did is absolutely bizarre.

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Natural 20
Sep 17, 2007

Wearer of Compasses. Slayer of Gods. Champion of the Colosseum. Heart of the Void.
Saviour of Hallownest.
Hey Bif, are you tracking who actually confirmed holding hands? I've been lazy about this game but I think it's something that needs to get done.

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