MLB N/V April: Mentally Weak

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TheChirurgeon: Aug 7, 2002; Remember how good you are; Taco Defender

Intruder posted:

It feels like the Astros have struggled this year so it's weird that they have the third best record in baseball. If the bats ever fully wake up, hoo boy

I'm not sure this is a real problem, nor that I'd say the team is "struggling." Through 29 games, the team has scored more runs than last year, and also has a significantly better run differential.

On the whole, there are probably two reasons you feel this way--the first is because several specific players have hit fewer dingers than last year--Altuve is only on pace for 11 HRs right now, but is batting .347 with an OPS above his career average. Springer on the other hand is on pace for 32 HRs, in-line with last year's 34 total and Correa's on pace for 22, in-line with last year's 24. Springer's doing slightly worse this year in OBP/OPS, while Correa is playing about as well as he did last season. Bregman's only on pace for 5 HRs (he hit 11 last year), but he's getting on base more.

And the second is because our SLG percentage is in-fact down compared to last season's full totals (though again, remember that we did not start white-hot)--.752 OPS so far this season vs .823 for all of last season. The flipside is that so far we've been grounding into double plays at a lower rate this season (0.72 per game so far vs. 0.86 last year) and our on-base percentage is pretty much unchanged (.340 this year vs .346 for all of last season).

Really I think it's going to boil down to what you think is/is not sustainable, both from last year and this year. It's pretty likely we'll see Altuve return to form as the season goes on, and I think we'll start seeing more dingers, but I don't think it's likely we're going to match last year's HR rate (1.47 vs. 1.1 so far this year).

So yeah, I think Altuve will bust out of his slump, but I wouldn't say the team has struggled. and our starting pitching got way better--Verlander, Cole, and Morton have been lights-out (I suspect Keuchel will lower his ERA a bit, but we'll see). Try to be happy with the team being "just" one of the best in baseball :P