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They can't sign Eeli Tolvanen
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May 27, 2018 04:16
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Hypothetically what would the pens have to get in return to make trading Phil kessel worth it?
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May 27, 2018 06:13
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a good, durable, RD would be the number 1 thing on my list. Not that I think they should trade Phil.
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May 27, 2018 06:18
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Vincent Van Goat posted:a good, durable, RD would be the number 1 thing on my list. Not that I think they should trade Phil. Want Shea Weber?
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May 27, 2018 06:33
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Sharks Eat Bear posted:Hypothetically what would the pens have to get in return to make trading Phil kessel worth it? I guess a defenseman but I don't know why they'd want to trade him. He just scored 90 points, he's got an excellent cap hit, and they've got him for a few more years. Maybe Mike Sullivan hates him like every other coach has, but that hasn't gotten in the way of them winning two cups with him and him being a very productive player.
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May 27, 2018 06:57
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Imagine Kessel in Montreal. That might actually be a worse media situation for him than Toronto
El Gallinero Gros fucked around with this message at 16:37 on May 27, 2018 |
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May 27, 2018 16:07
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Buffalo recently acquired the Sharks 1st round pick and there's a lot of really good local hot dog brands in western New York. Sounds like a pretty solid basis for a trade
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May 27, 2018 16:36
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El Gallinero Gros posted:Imagine Kessel in Montreal. That might actually be a worse media situation for him than Toronto We have steamed hot dogs for about 70 cents on every corner.
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May 27, 2018 16:59
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I somehow missed all this Kessel news until looking it up now. He looked really lost this playoffs after a career year but a trade because of it sounds pretty dumb to me unless he just wants out now.
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May 27, 2018 17:13
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Jessel trade rumors are just Mark Madden being a dumbass. He trotted out an article saying that Phil wants out and the Penguins want him gone because of his cap hit (fair point) and his lazy, selfish play in the season and practice. Meanwhile he writes the very next sentence saying Kessel had a career year in points. His other gripe seems to be that Kessel has an iron man streak and he put that in front of his health play hurt, but outside of the playoffs that doesn't add up either. Madden was a huge defender of Kessel, and now it seems like he heard something from someone, reported it, and is writing a narrative for why it must be true despite him saying the opposite for the past two years.
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May 27, 2018 17:54
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I can’t wait for Phil Kessel to lead the Seattle Totem ( ) to the Stanley Cup.
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May 27, 2018 18:13
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https://twitter.com/redactedmedic/status/1000450411944439810?s=19 Evilwaldo noooo
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May 27, 2018 21:02
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FWIW I just thought it was interesting to think about what the pens would have to get back for it not to feel like a totally boneheaded move to trade kessel. If the motivation for the trade is “we gotta dump him bc of poor playoffs and iron man obsession” that’s dumb, but kessel is probably at peak trade value right now and is on the wrong side of 30 so I don’t think he should be considered immovable I’m thinking some up and coming D + picks and/or prospects? I don’t know a lot of the guys in mind well enough to know what a fair trade would look like. Guys like Hanifin, Faulk, OEL, Hamilton, Brodie, etc.
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May 27, 2018 21:39
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Schremp Howard posted:Jessel trade rumors are just Mark Madden being a dumbass. He trotted out an article saying that Phil wants out and the Penguins want him gone because of his cap hit (fair point) and his lazy, selfish play in the season and practice. Meanwhile he writes the very next sentence saying Kessel had a career year in points. His other gripe seems to be that Kessel has an iron man streak and he put that in front of his health play hurt, but outside of the playoffs that doesn't add up either. Phil Kessel didnt talk to any media guys on locker cleanout day or whatever so now all the beat writers are mad at him, its pretty funny (and ridiculous) how transparent it is
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May 27, 2018 21:44
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Elliotte Friedman says it's legit, for what it's worth https://omny.fm/shows/oilers-now-with-bob-stauffer/may-25-oilers-now-seg-2-elliotte-friedman?t=13m17s He says he's in play, but the rest sounds like pure speculation on his part.
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May 27, 2018 22:01
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This is interesting regarding Kessel: https://twitter.com/ChartingHockey/status/1000450382202593284 Guy had 92 points and is barely of positive value there. I'm not actually sure how that's possible? Unfortunately the original blog post that made GAR easier to understand has died so I don't know how it's calculated anymore, besides that the only 6 areas it values are even strength offense, even strength defense, powerplay offense, penalties taken, penalties drawn, and faceoffs. Anyone else know why his numbers would be so bad?
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May 27, 2018 22:16
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Aphrodite posted:This is interesting regarding Kessel: Probably that he's bad at defense and doesn't possess the puck particulary well iirc.
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May 27, 2018 22:57
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https://twitter.com/ChartingHockey/status/1000446329020211200 Good God.
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May 27, 2018 23:11
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Aphrodite posted:This is interesting regarding Kessel: I think it's because GAR is calculated using totals for the whole team while the player is on the ice, but doesn't factor in individual performance. Kessel's CF/FF rel scores are negative, but it is worth noting that he individually attempted the most shots on the team, by far, with 449.
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May 27, 2018 23:12
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kessel had less than half of his points come at 5v5, he just about broke even in terms of corsi while underperforming the rest of the team, and was slightly underwater in terms of goals for percentage. he also had the second highest shooting percentage of his career. i feel like this is the kind of case that causes fancystats to lose a lot of people because im sitting here looking at stats for kessel to see whats wrong on corsica and im just saying to myself "yeah, okay, but come on he had 92 points". like yeah his shot attempts% and goals-for% aren't great, but when a player is that good at scoring i feel like you just accept that his defense sucks and try and find somebody who can take care of his share of defending for him. granted, evaluating a player beyond the conventional box cars to get a more nuanced understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of a player's game is exactly what advanced stats are for, but i think a lot of average hockey fans would just go "phil kessel? bad? NUH UH" and say the stats are junk and misleading
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May 27, 2018 23:25
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GAR seems like horseshit
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May 28, 2018 00:08
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Spring Break My Heart posted:GAR seems like horseshit Yeah, but have you considered how complicated the graph is? That means it's important.
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May 28, 2018 00:15
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Kessel is super important for the powerplay and I could see it struggling without him. Despite having Crosby/Malkin Phil is actually the quarterback. Sid plays more down low and Malkin is often a triggerman.
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May 28, 2018 00:23
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Yeah but you're using obsolete metrics like goals, not future stats like GARCH.
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May 28, 2018 00:27
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Zodijackylite posted:Yeah but you're using obsolete metrics like goals, not future stats like GARCH. The ole eye test. The PP can be good without him. It was in the past. But it has been best in the league and awesome in the playofs with him and I'd hate to lose that. But I guess we're gonna trade him because Sullivan like every other coach can't stand him. Dumb. At least we won two cups before GMJR decided to panic and overreact. Or maybe it's all bullshit. Oy vey. But Friedman confirmed it so there's something there.
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May 28, 2018 00:33
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If you're welcoming stupid trade ideas then kessel and malkin for a signed, retained oel and a swap of firsts. penguins can bump up brassard and all their young guys pan out and i wish you all the best while the (hopefully long) tail end of kessel and malkin can help out in arizona but personally I think the penguins need more like, demers/schenn/connauton than another single top flight defensemen that can skate and shoot, and the coyotes should be targeting a center that can drive the puck into the offensive zone instead of a purely scoring winger
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May 28, 2018 00:48
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Twin Cinema posted:Yeah, but have you considered how complicated the graph is? That means it's important. A scatter plot with a linear fit is about as uncomplicated as you can make a plot with 2 related variables. Also the dependent variable (GAR) should be on the y axis.
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May 28, 2018 00:51
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Yeah people can and should argue about the validity of metrics like GAR but complaining about extremely simple graphs is worse than Steve Simmons and Ken Campbell.
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May 28, 2018 01:01
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My takeaway is that the Penguins are attempting to sell high on Kessel - his production is great, but his underlying numbers are worrisome and he's getting to the age where a lot of players drop off offensively.
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May 28, 2018 01:08
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eXXon posted:A scatter plot with a linear fit is about as uncomplicated as you can make a plot with 2 related variables. I have an arts degree. I literally have no idea how a graph works.
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May 28, 2018 01:22
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Trading Kessel for *reasons* would be dumb, but the Penguins core is over 30 and . He's the kind of guy who could pry away a top pairing defender in his 20s. It'd take a guy like Faulk or OEL, a top six forward under 26, and another piece to make it happen, but there could be a good hockey trade for the Pens.grack posted:My takeaway is that the Penguins are attempting to sell high on Kessel - his production is great, but his underlying numbers are worrisome and he's getting to the age where a lot of players drop off offensively. That's exactly what they need to do.
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May 28, 2018 01:28
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grack posted:My takeaway is that the Penguins are attempting to sell high on Kessel - his production is great, but his underlying numbers are worrisome and he's getting to the age where a lot of players drop off offensively. I just don't like it unless the return is overwhelming. They're going to be the Canucks in a few years anyways, might as well try and win Cups now instead of worrying about what type of player Kessel will be near the end of his contract. Unless they do something whacky like trade Kessel and sign Tavares or Carlson with the cap space. I guess that would make them better. Seems unlikely though.
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May 28, 2018 01:55
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Ginette Reno posted:I just don't like it unless the return is overwhelming. They're going to be the Canucks in a few years anyways, might as well try and win Cups now instead of worrying about what type of player Kessel will be near the end of his contract. Do you think an overwhelming return is realistic? What would that look like for you in terms of actual players? Agree that trading away the cap hit to sign someone else is probably not gonna happen
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May 28, 2018 02:37
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I guess Nichushkin is looking to come back to na. That's good. Dallas needs depth in a big way.
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May 28, 2018 02:56
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Sharks Eat Bear posted:Do you think an overwhelming return is realistic? What would that look like for you in terms of actual players? Agree that trading away the cap hit to sign someone else is probably not gonna happen I'm having trouble figuring out a logical trade partner, but do these returns seem about right? Justin Faulk (26), Victor Rask (25), pick, prospect Oliver Ekman-Larsson (26), Max Domi (23), pick/prospect Dougie Hamilton (24), Sam Bennett (21), pick, prospect Basically, I think they would need a top defenseman in his prime, a younger secondary scorer who could benefit from the Pens center depth, and another asset for the Pens depth because this obviously isn't going to be a 1-for-1 trade.
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May 28, 2018 03:26
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Zodijackylite posted:I'm having trouble figuring out a logical trade partner, but do these returns seem about right? That might be what the Pens want but I see no reason why any team would give that much (unless by pick you mean a 2nd rounder and not a potential top 10 in 2019). Having said that, OEL is a year from UFA, Domi had a disappointing season, Faulk can't seem to actually play defense and the Canes apparently want to dump Rask, so maybe? Carolina does love their ex-Leafs and ex-Pens.
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May 28, 2018 03:36
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I hope chayka farts in the phone at that one
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May 28, 2018 03:48
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Zodijackylite posted:I'm having trouble figuring out a logical trade partner, but do these returns seem about right? The teams that would trade for him are looking to win now, not teams that missed the playoffs and are in rebuild.
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May 28, 2018 04:06
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HootTheOwl posted:The teams that would trade for him are looking to win now, not teams that missed the playoffs and are in rebuild. Thus they're not logical trade partners, but does the exchange seem about right? Carolina's owner might be dumb enough to try to prove something and make the playoffs this year, but those destinations don't make much sense. Of course, it seems like the right place for Kessel right now is Pittsburgh. eXXon posted:That might be what the Pens want but I see no reason why any team would give that much (unless by pick you mean a 2nd rounder and not a potential top 10 in 2019). Definitely not a lottery pick, more like a 2nd or maybe a late 1st acquired by trade. Those four guys seem like the situation makes it right to trade them. There's no reason for OEL to take a discount to stay in Arizona, but a Shattenkirk-type deal with a contender makes sense. Faulk is two years away and has little incentive to stay in Carolina. Their value isn't the same as a guy with more RFA years or locked up through prime years. Domi is looking more like a good second liner on a contender than his 52-point age 20 season suggested. Nine goals in 82 games doesn't help his value, either. Rask had a down year on a bad team, and that team is blowing it up. He's also more of a fit for a secondary scoring role, which Carolina is realizing when 40-something points doesn't put you second in scoring on their team.
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May 28, 2018 04:33
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What/when was the last actual good return for a player for of Kessel's caliber?
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May 28, 2018 04:37
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