Register a SA Forums Account here!
JOINING THE SA FORUMS WILL REMOVE THIS BIG AD, THE ANNOYING UNDERLINED ADS, AND STUPID INTERSTITIAL ADS!!!

You can: log in, read the tech support FAQ, or request your lost password. This dumb message (and those ads) will appear on every screen until you register! Get rid of this crap by registering your own SA Forums Account and joining roughly 150,000 Goons, for the one-time price of $9.95! We charge money because it costs us $3,400 per month for bandwidth bills alone, and since we don't believe in shoving popup ads to our registered users, we try to make the money back through forum registrations.
«684 »
  • Locked thread
Rick
Feb 23, 2004
And now the whole nation - pulpit and all - will take up the war-cry, and shout itself hoarse, and mob any honest man who ventures to open his mouth; and presently such mouths will cease to open.

Watching the DVR, there is one point where Chris Webber is SCREAMING about a moving screen, then the replay shows that James Harden was actually dragging Jordan Bell by the arm, thus screening himself (lol).

There's a metaphor there somewhere.

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

Spite
Jul 27, 2001

Small chance of that...


Rick posted:

Watching the DVR, there is one point where Chris Webber is SCREAMING about a moving screen, then the replay shows that James Harden was actually dragging Jordan Bell by the arm, thus screening himself (lol).

There's a metaphor there somewhere.

When James sees an arm he can clamp he just can't resist.

rjmccall
Sep 7, 2007

no worries friend

Fun Shoe

Chris Webber also called one of the missed calls on Harden a six-point swing because the Warriors hit a three on their next possession.

Ghost Dog
Aug 17, 2016

The Ghost That Refreshes

i think he was talking about the back to back missed calls on 3s

Roargasm
Oct 21, 2010

Hate to sound sleazy
But tease me
I don't want it if it's that easy


Nobody has more game sense than chris webber

predicto
Jul 22, 2004

Errr... ummm... the future might not be looking quite so bright for you. Sorry, ok?

Pohl posted:

Houston should have absolutely won this but they forgot how to rebound and they couldn't score.

Drive to the hoop you idiots...

I'll take a gift any day but this just feels wrong.

Morey may not believe it, but it's possible that a team might need something more than crashing to the hoop and contested threes when things get tight. Just a few midrange shots sprinkled in might have been drat useful to open things up, but that is not part of the Rockets' programming.

cosmicjim
Mar 23, 2010
VISIT THE STICKIED GOON HOLIDAY CHARITY DRIVE THREAD IN GBS.

Goons are changing the way children get an education in Haiti.

Edit - Oops, no they aren't. They donated to doobie instead.

predicto posted:

Morey may not believe it, but it's possible that a team might need something more than crashing to the hoop and contested threes when things get tight. Just a few midrange shots sprinkled in might have been drat useful to open things up, but that is not part of the Rockets' programming.

So the things Chris Paul does?

predicto
Jul 22, 2004

Errr... ummm... the future might not be looking quite so bright for you. Sorry, ok?

cosmicjim posted:

So the things Chris Paul does?

indeed

might be useful for the other 11 guys to try it just a bit if Crisped Paul isn't on the court

Dejan Bimble
Mar 24, 2008

Verhy old and rocky thoughts


Plaster Town Cop

predicto posted:

Morey may not believe it, but it's possible that a team might need something more than crashing to the hoop and contested threes when things get tight. Just a few midrange shots sprinkled in might have been drat useful to open things up, but that is not part of the Rockets' programming.

That's a reasonable common sense thing, and I agree with you in principle, if what you're doing isn't working you should humble yourself and try something else. But the problem lays with the Warriors having such a high expected points per shot and countering with midrange jumpers. Nobody's beaten them more than a game at a time playing like that, and it DEMANDS elite rebounding so that you keep getting the ball until you score (Spurs, Nuggets, Pistons regularly win a regular season game against them like this). If Houston thought they could have won by mixing in 10 or 20 more midrange shots, they would have done it.

predicto
Jul 22, 2004

Errr... ummm... the future might not be looking quite so bright for you. Sorry, ok?

Dejan Bimble posted:

That's a reasonable common sense thing, and I agree with you in principle, if what you're doing isn't working you should humble yourself and try something else. But the problem lays with the Warriors having such a high expected points per shot and countering with midrange jumpers. Nobody's beaten them more than a game at a time playing like that, and it DEMANDS elite rebounding so that you keep getting the ball until you score (Spurs, Nuggets, Pistons regularly win a regular season game against them like this). If Houston thought they could have won by mixing in 10 or 20 more midrange shots, they would have done it.

Yeah Iím not saying rely on midrange, or even use them heavily. Did the rockets even take one? Those drives were super hard because the warriors have good defenders who were completely selling out on defending the rim. You need to at least try to keep them off balance.

Poque
Sep 11, 2003

START ALMORA
EVERY DAY


predicto posted:

Yeah Iím not saying rely on midrange, or even use them heavily. Did the rockets even take one? Those drives were super hard because the warriors have good defenders who were completely selling out on defending the rim. You need to at least try to keep them off balance.

6:43 2nd: Gordon makes 3, followed by

Harden missed 3
Capela makes layup
Harden 3 blocked
Gordon missed 3
Capela makes layup
Harden makes dunk
Gordon missed 3
Harden missed 3
Harden missed 3
Harden layup blocked
Tucker missed 3
Capela makes dunk
Capela makes layup
Harden missed 3
Harden missed 3
Gordon makes layup
[end 2nd]
Harden missed 3
Harden makes 2
Ariza missed 3
Gordon 3 blocked
Harden makes driving floater
Harden missed 3
Tucker missed 3
Gordon missed 3
Ariza missed 3
Gordon layup blocked
Ariza missed 3
Harden layup blocked
Green missed layup
Capela makes layup
Ariza layup blocked
Green missed 3
Harden missed layup
Ariza missed 3
Gordon missed 3
Ariza missed 3
Harden missed 3
Johnson missed 3
Tucker makes layup
Gordon makes 2
Gordon makes dunk
[end 3rd]
Harden makes driving floater
Harden makes 2
Gordon missed 3
Ariza missed 3
Gordon missed 3
Capela makes 2
Harden missed 3

6:28 4th: Tucker makes 3

so it looks like they attempted 4 2-pointers that weren't dunks or layups and made all of them

Lockback
Sep 2, 2006

All days are nights to see till I see thee; and nights bright days when dreams do show me thee.


Dejan Bimble posted:

That's a reasonable common sense thing, and I agree with you in principle, if what you're doing isn't working you should humble yourself and try something else. But the problem lays with the Warriors having such a high expected points per shot and countering with midrange jumpers. Nobody's beaten them more than a game at a time playing like that, and it DEMANDS elite rebounding so that you keep getting the ball until you score (Spurs, Nuggets, Pistons regularly win a regular season game against them like this). If Houston thought they could have won by mixing in 10 or 20 more midrange shots, they would have done it.

Warriors shoot a fair bit of mid-range themselves though. It opens up their game and it's a big reason KD is KD.

Dejan Bimble
Mar 24, 2008

Verhy old and rocky thoughts


Plaster Town Cop

Lockback posted:

Warriors shoot a fair bit of mid-range themselves though. It opens up their game and it's a big reason KD is KD.

Post ups from their bench guards and midrange jumpers from an offense only bench big have been a staple, but the Rockets took them out of that game. David West couldn't play. Shaun Livingston didn't do much.

My contention since the galactically bad sixers team has always been that worse players need closer shots and against a great defense, it's not exactly a great idea to do something you haven't done at all for the first 90 something games of the season. There isn't a good correllation with contest % and 3p fg%, so statistically any 3p shot from a solid 3p shooter is good, but those things change when everyone is exhausted.

Lockback
Sep 2, 2006

All days are nights to see till I see thee; and nights bright days when dreams do show me thee.


KD took almost half of his shots this year from mid-range, it's not just bench guys.

Dejan Bimble posted:

There isn't a good correllation with contest % and 3p fg%, so statistically any 3p shot from a solid 3p shooter is good, but those things change when everyone is exhausted.

This is not correct. Teams that tightly contest 3P shots see fewer threes taken as players instead pass out. You are thinking of old sportvu data from 2015 that said there was little difference but also claimed only 10% of threes were contested, it was bad categorization.

I'm on my phone now but tomorrow I think I can find better data.

Rick
Feb 23, 2004
And now the whole nation - pulpit and all - will take up the war-cry, and shout itself hoarse, and mob any honest man who ventures to open his mouth; and presently such mouths will cease to open.

Yeah it's generally not the best time to break something new out completely. If I was a Rocket fan though I'd hope that adding some elements to the game was an offseason challenge to take on. Harden probably has the strength to be a favorable post matchup against Curry or Klay, and it would sure help when exhausted to lean on that and a way to get to the line a lot too. Obviously it does not fit the efficiency model the Rockets are going for but it might be nice to have as a plan C.

Spite
Jul 27, 2001

Small chance of that...


Rick posted:

Yeah it's generally not the best time to break something new out completely. If I was a Rocket fan though I'd hope that adding some elements to the game was an offseason challenge to take on. Harden probably has the strength to be a favorable post matchup against Curry or Klay, and it would sure help when exhausted to lean on that and a way to get to the line a lot too. Obviously it does not fit the efficiency model the Rockets are going for but it might be nice to have as a plan C.

I don' think that's the best strategy against GSW though.
When you post against them it shrinks the floor which gives Green or KD time to double. And they are really good at scheming ways to keep Draymond close to the basket if the floor isn't super-spread.

GSW has trouble against teams that can pull Green away from the hoop and then drive to the basket.

Even Klay will take a dribble in and shoot a rhythm shot if his 3 isn't falling. Ariza and Gordon can do it. I'd assume Tucker can too, but his ball handling has always been iffy to me.

Rick
Feb 23, 2004
And now the whole nation - pulpit and all - will take up the war-cry, and shout itself hoarse, and mob any honest man who ventures to open his mouth; and presently such mouths will cease to open.

Considering how loath Golden State was to switch or in any way leave the Rockets shooters I don't think they would send the double at Harden in the post--I mean if they didn't throw the double at AD in the post they probably aren't going to throw it at a Harden who will be significantly worse at it.

warcrimes
Jul 6, 2013

I don't know what's it called, I just know the sound it makes when it takes a J4G's life.

Spite posted:

I don' think that's the best strategy against GSW though.
When you post against them it shrinks the floor which gives Green or KD time to double. And they are really good at scheming ways to keep Draymond close to the basket if the floor isn't super-spread.

GSW has trouble against teams that can pull Green away from the hoop and then drive to the basket.

Even Klay will take a dribble in and shoot a rhythm shot if his 3 isn't falling. Ariza and Gordon can do it. I'd assume Tucker can too, but his ball handling has always been iffy to me.

Eh, GSW only has real trouble on those plays when Iggy isn't on the court. Even then, it depends on the match up.

Dejan Bimble
Mar 24, 2008

Verhy old and rocky thoughts


Plaster Town Cop

Lockback posted:

KD took almost half of his shots this year from mid-range, it's not just bench guys.


This is not correct. Teams that tightly contest 3P shots see fewer threes taken as players instead pass out. You are thinking of old sportvu data from 2015 that said there was little difference but also claimed only 10% of threes were contested, it was bad categorization.

I'm on my phone now but tomorrow I think I can find better data.

I'd like to see it if you can find it, do you remember where it was written?

Lockback
Sep 2, 2006

All days are nights to see till I see thee; and nights bright days when dreams do show me thee.


Dejan Bimble posted:

I'd like to see it if you can find it, do you remember where it was written?

This does a pretty good job of explaining it:
https://fansided.com/2017/03/20/nyl...-impact-length/

They also talk about how the NBA stats page on defended shots is likely flawed (I think its gotten better, but not sure).

Basically, you can't just look at %'s and say defense doesn't do much because better 3pt shooters are taking shots earlier in the clock, and thus are more likely to move the ball. This plays out in stats:

All teams are within 2% of average in opponent 3P%
https://stats.nba.com/teams/opponen...egular%20Season
That correlates with the idea that you can't do much about shooting %s


However, look at how team's opponents (who statistically are all about average 3P% teams) attempt 3s:
https://stats.nba.com/teams/opponen...egular%20Season
That's a 50% spread, with teams basically +/- 20% from the mean. And generally you get what you expect here, teams with long arms and well discplined defenses (Milwaukee, Utah, Spurs, Heat) are in the top-10.

I don't think its right to assume coaches/players will always do the optimal thing, but I do think it makes sense that they will do the obvious one. If shooting contested vs open 3s didn't matter, they'd not put so much effort into generating them. Same with defending, but where the numbers pan out is the ability to stop teams from taking shots they know are not good. 3pt'ers are inherently different than drives, because it's a lot harder/more risky to pass out of.

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

Dejan Bimble
Mar 24, 2008

Verhy old and rocky thoughts


Plaster Town Cop

Lockback posted:

This does a pretty good job of explaining it:
https://fansided.com/2017/03/20/nyl...-impact-length/

They also talk about how the NBA stats page on defended shots is likely flawed (I think its gotten better, but not sure).

Basically, you can't just look at %'s and say defense doesn't do much because better 3pt shooters are taking shots earlier in the clock, and thus are more likely to move the ball. This plays out in stats:

All teams are within 2% of average in opponent 3P%
https://stats.nba.com/teams/opponen...egular%20Season
That correlates with the idea that you can't do much about shooting %s


However, look at how team's opponents (who statistically are all about average 3P% teams) attempt 3s:
https://stats.nba.com/teams/opponen...egular%20Season
That's a 50% spread, with teams basically +/- 20% from the mean. And generally you get what you expect here, teams with long arms and well discplined defenses (Milwaukee, Utah, Spurs, Heat) are in the top-10.

I don't think its right to assume coaches/players will always do the optimal thing, but I do think it makes sense that they will do the obvious one. If shooting contested vs open 3s didn't matter, they'd not put so much effort into generating them. Same with defending, but where the numbers pan out is the ability to stop teams from taking shots they know are not good. 3pt'ers are inherently different than drives, because it's a lot harder/more risky to pass out of.

That's good stuff and squares with common sense, that long defenders playing tight affect shots, I'm glard to see it's in some numbers.

  • Locked thread
«684 »