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What does dogmatic mean? From the roots and context, l'm guessing it means "adhering to an established principle or belief" or something like that? Id Google it, but maybe it's fantasy slang or something like that
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May 8, 2018 20:31
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I think this is a good year for RB0. I think everyone is going to be high on running backs early and a lot of good receivers are going to fall. Subsequently, I think there is a lot of value to be found in middle round running backs.Beer4TheBeerGod posted:It all boils down to whether or not he really is the "best available". Going by PPG he was the QB7 in 2017. In 2016 he was the QB1. In 2015 the QB10 (although Geno Smith was ranked higher with only one game so let's say QB9). QB1 in 2014, QB 5 in 2013. So that's 2 years as QB1 and three as QB5 at best, and that's on a PPG basis and not including the time he was out because of injury. Now is a 40% chance at the QB1 worth a third rounder? Probably. But the power of streaming mitigates the appeal for me. Now I feel better. I did not look at the numbers, but I felt like he wasn't absolutely guaranteed to be qb1. Just that he had the best chance. This confirms the GB offense hasn't been consistently dominant for a while.
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May 8, 2018 20:39
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https://twitter.com/nick_underhill/status/993944447707738113 Welp.
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May 8, 2018 21:08
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Drunk Nerds posted:What does dogmatic mean? From the roots and context, l'm guessing it means "adhering to an established principle or belief" or something like that? It means an almost religious (dogma) adherence to a principal regardless of the circumstances.
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May 8, 2018 21:10
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Sataere posted:I think this is a good year for RB0. I think everyone is going to be high on running backs early and a lot of good receivers are going to fall. Subsequently, I think there is a lot of value to be found in middle round running backs. It seems to ebb and flow each year. I think it was 2016 where WRs went a lot earlier so getting RBs worked out well. 2017 was a bit of a hybrid, 2018 seems to be RB heavy.
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May 8, 2018 21:14
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Beer4TheBeerGod posted:It seems to ebb and flow each year. I think it was 2016 where WRs went a lot earlier so getting RBs worked out well. 2017 was a bit of a hybrid, 2018 seems to be RB heavy. I try to always go opposite of the trends on this. That's where I find the most success. Mud dogs big losers of the draft!
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May 8, 2018 21:20
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Ben Nevis posted:Round 6 of a slow, meaningless draft 3 months before football and I'm anxious about my pick. Geez. You think you're too serious: I doctored Ingram's drug test just to promote my first round mock pick
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May 8, 2018 21:24
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Sataere posted:I try to always go opposite of the trends on this. That's where I find the most success. I feel like going in with any predetermined plan is doomed to failure. Drafts to me are all sort of "No plan survives contact with the enemy" or even "Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the mouth." Know where people get drafted, know who's drafting with you, and drink just enough to be fearless.
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May 8, 2018 21:25
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Ben Nevis posted:I feel like going in with any predetermined plan is doomed to failure. Drafts to me are all sort of "No plan survives contact with the enemy" or even "Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the mouth." Know where people get drafted, know who's drafting with you, and drink just enough to be fearless. Yup. Mock draft to the point where you know what to expect, and laugh when it all falls apart. Although in my case it's fairly easy; everyone in my family uses BeerSheets. 
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May 8, 2018 21:30
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Beer4TheBeerGod posted:Yup. Mock draft to the point where you know what to expect, and laugh when it all falls apart. I actually find drafting with people who use beersheets easier. If they stick rigidly to the sheet, I can manipulate it and maximize value.
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May 8, 2018 21:33
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I have a different strategy where I never, ever have to worry about my draft strategy falling apart: I do auction almost exclusively 
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May 8, 2018 21:35
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Well poo poo.
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May 8, 2018 21:36
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My worst is a long time auction league where several of the frequent bottom players decided I'm the guy who knows what's going on, therefor the best option is to just take whoever I want. It makes those late round $1/$2 guys really hard to round up.
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May 8, 2018 21:36
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Ben Nevis posted:My worst is a long time auction league where several of the frequent bottom players decided I'm the guy who knows what's going on, therefor the best option is to just take whoever I want. It makes those late round $1/$2 guys really hard to round up. That's a bitch. Maybe we can figure out the strategy to counteract that, seems like there should be a relatively simple one.
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May 8, 2018 21:38
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Sataere posted:I actually find drafting with people who use beersheets easier. If they stick rigidly to the sheet, I can manipulate it and maximize value. That's exactly what happens. I just jump a round ahead and pick whoever I want, since by the middle rounds value is less predictable anyway.
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May 8, 2018 21:39
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Ben Nevis posted:My worst is a long time auction league where several of the frequent bottom players decided I'm the guy who knows what's going on, therefor the best option is to just take whoever I want. It makes those late round $1/$2 guys really hard to round up. Let them get in a bidding war with you and screw them. On the late guys, let them put s $2 bid on a guy you nominated and let them fill their roster with players you don't want. Easy peasy. I never nominate players I actually want in the top half of the draft. Beer4TheBeerGod posted:That's exactly what happens. I just jump a round ahead and pick whoever I want, since by the middle rounds value is less predictable anyway. It's surprising how many people haven't figured out that's how beersheets are supposed to be used.
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May 8, 2018 21:55
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Sataere posted:I never nominate players I actually want in the top half of the draft. This is the litmus test I use for pundits to see if they actually know how good auctions work. "Nominate a guy you want super early before the market is set," is the sign I can stop listening and start writing angry flame emails. I did a study of a few private auctions (i.e. not online ones with randos), and something like 4% of the RBs who go for under market value pan out above projections. I don't think I had enough data for a firm conclusion, but I looked at a bunch and... well... 4%. All it takes is ONE other owner to like a guy you like and the potential for savings goes out the window. Plus, the strategy stacks: The MORE people there are nominating bad guys, the more quickly people get filled up at a position and can't go toe-to-toe with you for the good prospects Drunk Nerds fucked around with this message at 22:09 on May 8, 2018 |
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May 8, 2018 22:01
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Sataere posted:Let them get in a bidding war with you and screw them. On the late guys, let them put s $2 bid on a guy you nominated and let them fill their roster with players you don't want. I think this has legs, but you could even do it early to make a statement: First few rounds nominate a $1 guy until people start realizing you're just nominating jags to undermine them, then proceed as normal. Probably do it a few times towards the end, too, just to remind people you are going to gently caress them if they try this borderline collusion Also, make a LOT of eye contact and trash talking. You could probably scare people off with just one $1 player if you jsut stare down whoever bids two and say "I hope you like getting hosed in the rear end with your own dick, because that just happened. Anyone else want to gank my guys, I'll do the same to you." Drunk Nerds fucked around with this message at 22:11 on May 8, 2018 |
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May 8, 2018 22:07
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Oh yeah. It's an 11 year league, now up to 14 members. I'm used to it. Mostly the early rounds, in addition to nominating guys I don't want, I do a lot of price enforcing and occasionally complaining bitterly about losing a guy I didn't want. And sometimes mocking them when they inevitably get a guy I want. Late, you just wait till they're out of money. Midrounds are trickiest, it helps then I think to have a good idea of a few different guys at each position you and don't get too attached. You just have to disguise your intentions well enough. Well, that and be better than they are. My favorite is not just nominating guys you don't want, but early nominating the guys that everyone wants to try and get cheap. Like Jimmy Graham last year was something like $3 on ESPNs draft board. Throw him out way early. He'll go for more than anyone expected taking extra money off the table and send the guys who were counting on him as their cheap late TE into a bit of a panic. It's good fun for everyone!
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May 8, 2018 22:21
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Ben Nevis posted:Oh yeah. It's an 11 year league, now up to 14 members. I'm used to it. Mostly the early rounds, in addition to nominating guys I don't want, I do a lot of price enforcing and occasionally complaining bitterly about losing a guy I didn't want. And sometimes mocking them when they inevitably get a guy I want. Late, you just wait till they're out of money. Midrounds are trickiest, it helps then I think to have a good idea of a few different guys at each position you and don't get too attached. You just have to disguise your intentions well enough. Well, that and be better than they are. This sounds fine, but way more complicated than just nominating so-so $1 players then making jerkoff gestures while everyone decides to bid, then miming spider-manning whoever wins.
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May 8, 2018 22:33
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Nominate kickers and DSTs first. Worst case scenario you get the best kicker/DST for $1. Best case scenario someone overpays.
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May 9, 2018 00:19
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Anyone have any strong opinions on the rookie RBs that were just drafted? 5.11 Derrius Guice 6.3 Rashaad Penny 6.4 Sony Michel I like Michel the best in redraft leagues. I know I'll be targeting him in every draft because no one ever values Patriots RBs highly. And despite the shitshow that is Seattle right now, I think I like Penny more than Guice. Between Guice's maturity issues and the Redskins' overall ineptitude (especially re: their run game), I doubt I'll be ranking Guice highly come real draft time.
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May 9, 2018 00:54
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Tiptoes posted:Anyone have any strong opinions on the rookie RBs that were just drafted? Guice - First round talent, awesome offensive line, competition is fairly milquetoast. Definitely someone I'd love to target. The Redskins run game was inept because the offensive line fell apart due to injuries, and none of the players really stepped up. A lot of folks hoped Samaje Perine would be the bellcow but he didn't really impress. I have no idea WTF is up with the Guice maturity issues but if he falls in the fantasy draft because of it I will definitely take advantage. Penny - 4For4 loves him. I'm not convinced that Seattle is going to be good this year which limits his appeal, but Elliott Crist seems to think he's going to be their bellcow because the committee approach failed so miserably last year. Michel - I genuinely don't know why he was drafted, but I think it was a bit early for him given how unpredictable NE RBs are.
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May 9, 2018 01:26
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Beer4TheBeerGod posted:Nominate kickers and DSTs first. Worst case scenario you get the best kicker/DST for $1. Best case scenario someone overpays. I see it the same, but my conclusion is opposite: Best case scenario is an owner who has so little sense as to pay $2 for a kicker now has 1% less money. I kind of like it as an anti-collusion strategy, though, which I'm sure is why you brought it up. Going to think about this one.
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May 9, 2018 01:56
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Beer4TheBeerGod posted:Guice - First round talent, awesome offensive line, competition is fairly milquetoast. Definitely someone I'd love to target. The Redskins run game was inept because the offensive line fell apart due to injuries, and none of the players really stepped up. A lot of folks hoped Samaje Perine would be the bellcow but he didn't really impress. I have no idea WTF is up with the Guice maturity issues but if he falls in the fantasy draft because of it I will definitely take advantage. quote:Michel - I genuinely don't know why he was drafted, but I think it was a bit early for him given how unpredictable NE RBs are.
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May 9, 2018 02:15
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Patriots also don't take a RB in the first round very often, so i'm hoping they have big plans for him. I'm high on Sony this year but i haven't figured out at what cost i'm willing to grab him at.
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May 9, 2018 02:25
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Tiptoes posted:Anyone have any strong opinions on the rookie RBs that were just drafted? I like taking a mid round flyer in Guice, but I am down on him in dynasty leagues. Probably the most talented of the three. Too many whispers and I'm afraid of investing in crazy long term. I did that once and ended up married.  Penny is my second favorite rookie back, after Barkley. I think he is going to be a workhorse. Honestly, I might actually like him more than Barkley. Michel is the hardest. I love his game. I hate his knees. And the risk this year is the kid puts the football on the ground. Belichick doesn't tolerate fumbles. But he has the most home run potential.
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May 9, 2018 05:15
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Sataere posted:Michel is the hardest. I love his game. I hate his knees. And the risk this year is the kid puts the football on the ground. Belichick doesn't tolerate fumbles. But he has the most home run potential. I'm trying to decide how meaningful the knee thing is. Like it came out right before the draft. I also have trouble believing the Pats would spend a first on a dude with bad knees. I
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May 9, 2018 05:49
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The bone-on-bone thing hasn't been covered as excessively as it was with Ajayi, but IIRC from that situation, that it's something that will end his career sooner, but it's a pain management issue for now.
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May 9, 2018 06:16
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Ben Nevis posted:I'm trying to decide how meaningful the knee thing is. Like it came out right before the draft. I also have trouble believing the Pats would spend a first on a dude with bad knees. I Tiptoes fucked around with this message at 06:47 on May 9, 2018 |
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May 9, 2018 06:44
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Tiptoes posted:Remember, the bone-on-bone news was first mentioned by Michael Lombardi. There's a decent chance that information came from Belichick himself to spread a little chaos. Ajayi legitimately fell to the fifth round after his bone-on-bone condition was revealed. The timing of the news and the fact Michel was still as highly graded as he was gives me a lot more confidence about his condition. But if bchick was trying to lower Sony's stock, then why not wait until the second round to pick him? I don't remember him being predicted to even go in the first, but I could be wrong.
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May 9, 2018 07:02
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Oy timp get your draft in.
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May 9, 2018 14:34
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Beer4TheBeerGod posted:Oy timp get your draft in. Sorry y'all, didn't realize I was on the clock! Thanks to Sataere for the PM heads up. I took Greg Olsen. I know he was a pretty incredible disappointment last year, and the recent addition of DJ Moore and CJ Anderson at Carolina will eat into his targets. But poo poo man, it's TE! I'm willing to roll the dice on someone who could potentially be an every game TE instead of trying to wade through the murky mire that is TE streaming with scrubs from week to week.
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May 9, 2018 15:13
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I pick... Marlon Mack I guess? My skill positions are pretty shored up, and I've got to wait on TE with what's left, so I figure my best move is to grab some of these unproven RBs who could stay as the lead back in pretty decent situations. Indiapolis line should be a bit better (and pretty decent in 2019), and if Luck comes back that's an offensive machine, again.
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May 9, 2018 17:09
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Gah. What if I don't want any of these guys here?
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May 9, 2018 17:45
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Ben Nevis posted:Gah. What if I don't want any of these guys here? Reach and don't give a poo poo.
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May 9, 2018 17:50
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Beer4TheBeerGod posted:Reach and don't give a poo poo. Done and Done. I wish I liked this pick more. I'm not really in love with any guys here, but I like Freeman's prospects. Denver has made it clear over the past couple years making it clear they don't like who they have at the RB position. He was extremely productive in college though slowed by a knee injury last year. I think he's recovered now and stands to contribute immediately in the rushing game with a chance at catching some passes as well. Finally, it gives me the option to change my team name to Freemans on the Land, which I think is a strong selection this year.
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May 9, 2018 18:04
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I'm glad that Duke Johnson fell to me. There isn't much about Hyde or Chubb that threatens Johnson's role as a pass-catching back, and while there's no guarantee that he'll repeat last year's breakout success I do think he'll be a reliable source of points with a high floor.
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May 9, 2018 18:54
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Beer4TheBeerGod posted:I'm glad that Duke Johnson fell to me. There isn't much about Hyde or Chubb that threatens Johnson's role as a pass-catching back, and while there's no guarantee that he'll repeat last year's breakout success I do think he'll be a reliable source of points with a high floor. Do you worry that Landry might cut into those short targets?
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May 9, 2018 19:19
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Ben Nevis posted:Do you worry that Landry might cut into those short targets? Worrying is for losers. Are you calling Beer a loser?
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May 9, 2018 19:27
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