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TMMadman
Sep 9, 2003

He will be injured, but in the World Series he will be raised from the DL. And the Indians were filled with grief.


King Burgundy posted:

Per the rules link, 10 player game doesn't have any special rebalancing:

"The 11 Fascist Policy tiles and the 6 Liberal Policy tiles are shuffled into a single Policy deck."

https://secrethitler.io/rules

So that's 17 to start, 6 liberal. 3 left. Unless Pmush or CapnAndy lied and got one more liberal policy then stated.

My bad, I thought the game only had the 5 liberal cards since that's all you need to win.

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King Burgundy
Sep 17, 2003

I am the Burgundy King,
I can do anything!

TMMadman posted:

I would investigate kumba because he, a) didn't have a choice and b) will be President at what is likely to be a very dangerous time.

I'm assuming that a fascist policy will get enacted today simple because there are only 2 liberal cards currently available out of 11. Now maybe KB gets lucky and draws one of those two cards, but I'm not counting on it.

Then we have to go through CPig, DB and RF. If all three are able to act, we'll very likely be either at 4 fascist/2 liberal or 3 liberal/3 fascist. The deck would resuffle when RF picks his 3 cards in this case, so there is a chance we could get to 2 fascist/4 liberal but I'm not sure I'd place any bets on it.

So as you can see kumba should definitely be a potential investigation target, although maybe it could wait until the 2nd investigation if you wanted to look at one of Cpig/DB/RF first.

So this was my initial thoughts, I'll post them even though I've had second thoughts while typing this up:

On investigations, I'd lean strongly towards Cpig if I got one today. That would let us know if we should just no confidence his presidency, since he is next. Although mitigating factor would be if I drew all fascist policies. Then the numbers in the deck would change to 3 of 8, so odds are good again, so might be worth skipping Pig on the investigation and doing DB instead.

This seems like basic strategy to me, so someone can fill me in if there is something more advanced we should be doing. Like searching Pmush or CapnAndy to make sure they aren't Hitler.

---

Now that I've thought about it more, I can totally see Kumba as a better choice. Kumba, AA, TMM are some of the choices that will matter most since it will come after we are possibly forced to enact fascist policies so the choices will matter far more. I can still see the logic of doing Pmush or CapnAndy as well to confirm they aren't Hitler for safe nominations.

We can talk more when it eventually happens and we see the actual game state.

TMMadman
Sep 9, 2003

He will be injured, but in the World Series he will be raised from the DL. And the Indians were filled with grief.


Also I'm apparently bad at math since 11+4+2 != 16.

TMMadman
Sep 9, 2003

He will be injured, but in the World Series he will be raised from the DL. And the Indians were filled with grief.


Also, regardless of whether I made a wrong assumption with how many liberal polcies are left, it still wouldn't change my opinion or reasons about investigating kumba.

CapnAndy
Feb 27, 2004

This is how Davos feels.
This is how Davos feels all the time.



I would personally prefer CPig just so we get immediately useable knowledge. Liberal/Fascist governments aren't good for the fascists; if they can't control both sides of it to make up whatever lies they like, they have to lie low to avoid getting their obvious bullshit called out.

TMMadman
Sep 9, 2003

He will be injured, but in the World Series he will be raised from the DL. And the Indians were filled with grief.


CapnAndy posted:

I would personally prefer CPig just so we get immediately useable knowledge. Liberal/Fascist governments aren't good for the fascists; if they can't control both sides of it to make up whatever lies they like, they have to lie low to avoid getting their obvious bullshit called out.

Do you think one of the two investigations we get should be used on kumba?

PMush Perfect
Sep 30, 2009

----------------------
|PMush used Shitpost! |
|It's super effective!|
----------------------


I'd also like to see CPig get scoped out, and if he isn't, I'm going to be very suspicious of someone who gave us technically-useful information that we can't do anything with until another go round.

TMMadman
Sep 9, 2003

He will be injured, but in the World Series he will be raised from the DL. And the Indians were filled with grief.


PMush Perfect posted:

I'd also like to see CPig get scoped out, and if he isn't, I'm going to be very suspicious of someone who gave us technically-useful information that we can't do anything with until another go round.

Same question as the one posted above.

PMush Perfect
Sep 30, 2009

----------------------
|PMush used Shitpost! |
|It's super effective!|
----------------------


i think itd actually be most productive to use it on whoever investigates first because then we get a triple confirm for two investigations

PMush Perfect
Sep 30, 2009

----------------------
|PMush used Shitpost! |
|It's super effective!|
----------------------


Mafia edit: Had autocorrect off because I was just shitposting in E/N, sorry.

TMMadman
Sep 9, 2003

He will be injured, but in the World Series he will be raised from the DL. And the Indians were filled with grief.


PMush Perfect posted:

i think itd actually be most productive to use it on whoever investigates first because then we get a triple confirm for two investigations

Why do you think that CPig is a more important person than kumba?

In my opinion, CPig isn't nearly as important as kumba for several reasons. As I stated earlier he wasn't given a choice and he's going to be in a position of incredible power when his presidency comes up. And it's very likely that the special election gets run before kumba is President. If we know that kumba is a liberal then we can get kumba elected for the special election and then have him be the president again shortly afterwards.

CapnAndy
Feb 27, 2004

This is how Davos feels.
This is how Davos feels all the time.



PMush Perfect posted:

i think itd actually be most productive to use it on whoever investigates first because then we get a triple confirm for two investigations
I agree with this.

There's a chance it doesn't work, but it requires the fascists to get absurdly lucky, and if they're caught out later we find out basically who the entire fascist team is. I'll take that chance.

TMMadman
Sep 9, 2003

He will be injured, but in the World Series he will be raised from the DL. And the Indians were filled with grief.


I will say that having 3 cards instead of 2 changes things slightly, but I am still more concerned about kumba than I am about CPig.

I'd rather just let CPig just have his turn and then decide whether to trust or not trust him based on the outcome than not get information about someone who is going to have much more power.

kumba
Nov 8, 2003


enjoy the ride


Lipstick Apathy

TMMadman posted:

Why do you think that CPig is a more important person than kumba?

In my opinion, CPig isn't nearly as important as kumba for several reasons. As I stated earlier he wasn't given a choice and he's going to be in a position of incredible power when his presidency comes up. And it's very likely that the special election gets run before kumba is President. If we know that kumba is a liberal then we can get kumba elected for the special election and then have him be the president again shortly afterwards.

CapnAndy posted:

I agree with this.

There's a chance it doesn't work, but it requires the fascists to get absurdly lucky, and if they're caught out later we find out basically who the entire fascist team is. I'll take that chance.

i agree with both of these things

King Burgundy
Sep 17, 2003

I am the Burgundy King,
I can do anything!

Putting the cart before the horse slightly. Still a decent chance I'll draw a liberal policy.

TMMadman
Sep 9, 2003

He will be injured, but in the World Series he will be raised from the DL. And the Indians were filled with grief.


King Burgundy posted:

Putting the cart before the horse slightly. Still a decent chance I'll draw a liberal policy.

Yeah with there being 3 liberal cards left in the deck there's a better chance than I originally assumed of getting a liberal card.

And in fact, if we can pass a liberal policy today then it makes my argument for investigating kumba even stronger.

PMush Perfect
Sep 30, 2009

----------------------
|PMush used Shitpost! |
|It's super effective!|
----------------------


If liberal comes up, I'll be behind copping Kumba, I think. Does the President get to talk to people before they decide who to scope, or does it happen during the same silence?

Retro Futurist
Aug 8, 2007

Yesterday's Tomorrow,
Today!


Yeah I think kumba makes the most sense, if Iím following this correctly

Dancer
May 23, 2011

Fly me away on the wings of an angel.


PMush Perfect posted:

If liberal comes up, I'll be behind copping Kumba, I think. Does the President get to talk to people before they decide who to scope, or does it happen during the same silence?

No silence. The President is free to talk to the table. This applies to any exec power.

TMMadman
Sep 9, 2003

He will be injured, but in the World Series he will be raised from the DL. And the Indians were filled with grief.


The way I see it is that if Kumba is investigated first then he can be used as a Chancellor if needed before he's President, then it's entirely possible to make him President twice (possible im a row) and then as a safe Chancellor after he's President. The only dangerous time would be the government directly after his 2nd one since he would be term limited at that point. I guess there would be some danger with who he picks as Chancellor but we should be able to figure out a safe choice.

Anomalous Amalgam
Feb 13, 2015

"Dangit, Griffith. I'll tell you h'what, that's a Behelit!"


Doctor Rope

I've been following loosely, but I think that Kumba is probably a better investigation over pig.

kumba
Nov 8, 2003


enjoy the ride


Lipstick Apathy

Anomalous Amalgam posted:

I've been following loosely, but I think that Kumba is probably a better investigation over pig.

i'm the best

PMush Perfect
Sep 30, 2009

----------------------
|PMush used Shitpost! |
|It's super effective!|
----------------------


Alright, if that's what people think is best, I'm willing to cede that I might not know what I'm talking about. I won't raise an objection if kumba is the one who gets copped.

Still standing by that our second investigation should be on whoever made the first.

CapitalistPig
Nov 3, 2005

You turn the corner and see a greenskinned fuckmidget.
Roll for initiative.

Sorry I know I'm being lurky just trying to wrap my head around the way this game plays out.

I agree with TMM about kumba.

King Burgundy
Sep 17, 2003

I am the Burgundy King,
I can do anything!

We ready for nomination? Or more chat?

kumba
Nov 8, 2003


enjoy the ride


Lipstick Apathy

CapitalistPig posted:

Sorry I know I'm being lurky just trying to wrap my head around the way this game plays out.

I agree with TMM about kumba.

since when have you ever hesitated just posting whatever?? WHY SO RESERVED MR PIG??

kumba
Nov 8, 2003


enjoy the ride


Lipstick Apathy

King Burgundy posted:

We ready for nomination? Or more chat?

still thinking TMM? sounds fine to me

King Burgundy
Sep 17, 2003

I am the Burgundy King,
I can do anything!

kumba posted:

still thinking TMM? sounds fine to me

Yeah

TMMadman
Sep 9, 2003

He will be injured, but in the World Series he will be raised from the DL. And the Indians were filled with grief.


I'd say go ahead and nominate. We can always talk until the votes come in.

I sort of get the reasoning on why CPig could be a good investigation since we want to have trusted people as Chancellor later in the game and by investigating CPig we can ensure that he is telling the truth if he investigated KB right after. And then we would have two trustworthy people to be Chancellors.

However, I feel like it's equally or possibly more important to have a President you can trust. After all, the President sees more cards and a fascist President can force a liberal Chancellor to pick a fascist policy while also lying about discarding a liberal policy.

Kumba is sitting right in that spot where he could be President either right after or one turn after the special election, so we could have a chance at having a trusted player go chancellor for RF, specially elected president, regularly elected president (or chancellor in the middle of the presidencies).

Yes, we would have to trust that CPig (assuming he got the 2nd investigation) isn't a fascist covering for a fascist KB who would be our secondary chancellor, but I'm willing to take that chance and it can be tested during a kumba presidency.

Byers2142
May 5, 2011

Imagine I said something deep here...


TMMadman posted:

Do you think one of the two investigations we get should be used on kumba?

I'm not sure kumba should be set in stone for an investigation, for one reason: all of the logic used to pick him assumes all governments between now and kumba get voted in. That's, what, four governments from now? I don't see four governments passing without incident once fascist policies start getting played, especially given who is eligible for Chancellor if we continue picking people who haven't served yet.

The argument being made is that three fascists policies are going to be played before kumba is President, and a clean investigation would allow us to double up with a relatively trusted President. I don't see that happening. The timing is so tight that it's more likely we get confirmation on or after kumba's assigned Presidency, not before, and we miss the double up.

Better in my opinion to look at getting an investigation on an earlier President, even if you can't get the second investigation in time to confirm the first. Eventually, we can use the second investigation per PMush's suggestion (which I think is a good one) and hopefully have a little more information to work with earlier. So looking at CPig or Dick makes more sense to me.

Byers2142
May 5, 2011

Imagine I said something deep here...


TMMadman posted:

Yeah with there being 3 liberal cards left in the deck there's a better chance than I originally assumed of getting a liberal card.

And in fact, if we can pass a liberal policy today then it makes my argument for investigating kumba even stronger.

Wait, why is it stronger? At that point, you require three fascist policies in a row with three successfully approved governments to do the double. And you require two liberal Presidents on the investigations. That's not just tight, it's banking on a near-perfect set up. One wrong thing, and you miss out on potentially being able to use the investigation earlier and the double up you're aiming for.

King Burgundy
Sep 17, 2003

I am the Burgundy King,
I can do anything!

##nominate TMM

King Burgundy
Sep 17, 2003

I am the Burgundy King,
I can do anything!

##vote yes

TMMadman
Sep 9, 2003

He will be injured, but in the World Series he will be raised from the DL. And the Indians were filled with grief.


Byers2142 posted:

I'm not sure kumba should be set in stone for an investigation, for one reason: all of the logic used to pick him assumes all governments between now and kumba get voted in. That's, what, four governments from now? I don't see four governments passing without incident once fascist policies start getting played, especially given who is eligible for Chancellor if we continue picking people who haven't served yet.

The argument being made is that three fascists policies are going to be played before kumba is President, and a clean investigation would allow us to double up with a relatively trusted President. I don't see that happening. The timing is so tight that it's more likely we get confirmation on or after kumba's assigned Presidency, not before, and we miss the double up.

Better in my opinion to look at getting an investigation on an earlier President, even if you can't get the second investigation in time to confirm the first. Eventually, we can use the second investigation per PMush's suggestion (which I think is a good one) and hopefully have a little more information to work with earlier. So looking at CPig or Dick makes more sense to me.

I feel like this actually makes my case for investigating kumba even stronger.

Yes, I wss assuming that all the governments between now and kumba get passed, but even if one or even two of them don't, I still think that kumba is the best choice for investigation.

Even if KB picks 3 fascist cards today and doesn't investigate CPig, I see no reason to vote no to a CPig government basically regardless of his chancellor nomination. After all, the worst that happens is that we get a 2nd fascist policy but also our 2nd investigation. At that point, we can either decide to let one of the next two governments get elected on the condition that they make kumba the president if a fascist policy is passed. Or we just blindly deny DB/RF their chance at power in order to install a trusted kumba as President.

CapitalistPig
Nov 3, 2005

You turn the corner and see a greenskinned fuckmidget.
Roll for initiative.

##vote yes

PMush Perfect
Sep 30, 2009

----------------------
|PMush used Shitpost! |
|It's super effective!|
----------------------


##vote yes

Plot twist, votefinder's gonna come in and tell us that yes has been dunked and flipped scum.

TMMadman
Sep 9, 2003

He will be injured, but in the World Series he will be raised from the DL. And the Indians were filled with grief.


Byers2142 posted:

Wait, why is it stronger? At that point, you require three fascist policies in a row with three successfully approved governments to do the double. And you require two liberal Presidents on the investigations. That's not just tight, it's banking on a near-perfect set up. One wrong thing, and you miss out on potentially being able to use the investigation earlier and the double up you're aiming for.

I was a little wrong there because I forgot to account for the shuffle happening a round earlier than I thought at first.

I still think Kumba is the best choice for investigation just based on how things have played out so far plus the possibility of him being elected at an important time.

CapitalistPig
Nov 3, 2005

You turn the corner and see a greenskinned fuckmidget.
Roll for initiative.

kumba posted:

since when have you ever hesitated just posting whatever?? WHY SO RESERVED MR PIG??

whatever

Byers2142
May 5, 2011

Imagine I said something deep here...


TMMadman posted:

I feel like this actually makes my case for investigating kumba even stronger.

Yes, I wss assuming that all the governments between now and kumba get passed, but even if one or even two of them don't, I still think that kumba is the best choice for investigation.

Even if KB picks 3 fascist cards today and doesn't investigate CPig, I see no reason to vote no to a CPig government basically regardless of his chancellor nomination. After all, the worst that happens is that we get a 2nd fascist policy but also our 2nd investigation. At that point, we can either decide to let one of the next two governments get elected on the condition that they make kumba the president if a fascist policy is passed. Or we just blindly deny DB/RF their chance at power in order to install a trusted kumba as President.

Do you trust KB and CPig that much? Everything hinges on the investigations being accurate and their truthfulness in cards discarded/passed. The more you put this plan forward, the less I like it. Everything is based on giving kumba power.

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TMMadman
Sep 9, 2003

He will be injured, but in the World Series he will be raised from the DL. And the Indians were filled with grief.


##vote yes

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