Register a SA Forums Account here!
JOINING THE SA FORUMS WILL REMOVE THIS BIG AD, THE ANNOYING UNDERLINED ADS, AND STUPID INTERSTITIAL ADS!!!

You can: log in, read the tech support FAQ, or request your lost password. This dumb message (and those ads) will appear on every screen until you register! Get rid of this crap by registering your own SA Forums Account and joining roughly 150,000 Goons, for the one-time price of $9.95! We charge money because it costs us $3,400 per month for bandwidth bills alone, and since we don't believe in shoving popup ads to our registered users, we try to make the money back through forum registrations.
«36 »
  • Locked thread
CapnAndy
Feb 27, 2004

This is how Davos feels.
This is how Davos feels all the time.



King Burgundy posted:

But you wanted to investigate Cpig and felt very strongly about that and my read of the room is that is probably not the investigation that is happening?

So to confirm, what direction do you think it's going right now, that you are happy with?
We're going to investigate someone who will be President soon, even if it's not necessarily CPig.

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

Anomalous Amalgam
Feb 13, 2015

In time, you will know the tragic extent of my failings...


Doctor Rope

I think the cucu strat is a good one.

Investigate preference order

DB
Rf Kumba or myself
TMM

DB for strat
Group for potential 3 fascist policies passed
TMM is gut

Byers2142
May 5, 2011

Imagine I said something deep here...


King Burgundy posted:

Yeah. It is too early to say for sure, until we see more cards, but I'm a bit weirded out by Byers/Andy at this point. I could be mistaken, but I could have sworn they were both experienced players, and the strategies I've been reading up on while I'm waiting for people to post haven't jived with the way they played so far. For example, we had the talk about if you get two liberal policies as the pres, should you pass them both on, and this link: https://secrethitler.tartanllama.xyz/#strategy-overview seems to say that you should almost always pass the choice on to the chancellor, unless you are behind and it is near end game.

Also, their choice to vote no on the government at that point seems super fishy to me, since I know it would have prevented a liberal presidency at a time when there was not a serious danger from having a possibly bad TMM as chancellor.

Having said that, if anyone lied in those first two administrations at this point, it would have been to obscure additional liberal discards, which seems statistically unlikely. In Byers case it isn't even possible unless Pmush was also bad. And in Andy's case it would mean he had gotten 3 liberal policies in his draw, which is kinda crazy or that again, Kumba was also bad.

I'm putting this out there because it feels like no one is really doing this stuff at this point, and we probably should be?

I've played five to ten games so far IRL and my strategy has always been to vote no on any government containing my top picks for fascist. I can't see TMM's kumba play as making sense from my perspective, so barring anything else thus far he's the one person I'd vote against. At this point, if I had an investigation I'd use it on him.

I don't agree with a lot of the strategy online for this (or any) party game; it's mostly game theory for a social games written by spergs with low social skills.

Byers2142
May 5, 2011

Imagine I said something deep here...


King Burgundy posted:

Chain investigations are apparently bad at this player count. So we want to avoid me investigating whoever we think is going to get the next fascist policy.

ie., Me investigating DB, and Pig investigating me? Good. 3 people involved.
But me investigating DB, and DB investigating me? Bad. Only 2 of us.

This is still a good point, though, I'd push out past the next two presidents just in general based on the PMush plan.

TMMadman
Sep 9, 2003

He will be injured, but in the World Series he will be raised from the DL. And the Indians were filled with grief.


Byers2142 posted:

This is still a good point, though, I'd push out past the next two presidents just in general based on the PMush plan.

Wait, so yesterday when I originally suggested pushing out past the next two Presidents, specifically to kumba, you were against it. But now you are suddenly for going out more than 2 Presidents?

Byers2142
May 5, 2011

Imagine I said something deep here...


TMMadman posted:

Wait, so yesterday when I originally suggested pushing out past the next two Presidents, specifically to kumba, you were against it. But now you are suddenly for going out more than 2 Presidents?

My problem with your plan was your irrational fixation on kumba, specifically. And as I questioned, your reasoning for fixating on kumba got worse and worse.

TMMadman
Sep 9, 2003

He will be injured, but in the World Series he will be raised from the DL. And the Indians were filled with grief.


Byers2142 posted:

My problem with your plan was your irrational fixation on kumba, specifically. And as I questioned, your reasoning for fixating on kumba got worse and worse.

This despite the fact that a bunch of other people easily followed my logic and reasoning.

My problem here is that you seemingly refused to even consider that kumba is going to be up for election at what could be a critical time and you just don't seem interested in figuring out his alignment before that time. Remember, we can't even make a gut judgement call because he wasn't even given a choice as Chancellor.

Dick Bastardly
Aug 22, 2012


I follow your logic tmm

PMush Perfect
Sep 30, 2009

H3Y H4V3 YOU GUYS H34RD 4BOUT HOM3STUCK?


Byers, can you explain why the idea that kumba could be an Important President and acting on that idea is incorrect?

kumba
Nov 8, 2003


enjoy the ride


Lipstick Apathy

the fixation on me is totally rational, because i am the best

Byers2142
May 5, 2011

Imagine I said something deep here...


PMush Perfect posted:

Byers, can you explain why the idea that kumba could be an Important President and acting on that idea is incorrect?

The original argument by TMM wss to get both investigation before kumba and have him double up. That plan required near perfect setup, but even after that was pointed out he continued skipping earlier Presidents to focus on kumba. Like I said before, focusing on kumba over others before him delayed the time that investigation would be useful. Then he laid an ultimatum of not voting in a kumba government without an investigation, with no justification for it.

If the argument was to add to the CPig/RF/DB suggestions, that's one thing. But that focus on kumba feels like TMM is trying to force something.

Byers2142
May 5, 2011

Imagine I said something deep here...


TMMadman posted:

Wait, so yesterday when I originally suggested pushing out past the next two Presidents, specifically to kumba, you were against it. But now you are suddenly for going out more than 2 Presidents?

Yes, because KB's point about wanting three players involved in investigations is valid. And it's not at all the same to your laser focus on kumba specifically.

Byers2142
May 5, 2011

Imagine I said something deep here...


Oh, responded to that post twice, missed that I'd already responded. Blame phone posting.

Byers2142
May 5, 2011

Imagine I said something deep here...


TMMadman posted:

This despite the fact that a bunch of other people easily followed my logic and reasoning.

My problem here is that you seemingly refused to even consider that kumba is going to be up for election at what could be a critical time and you just don't seem interested in figuring out his alignment before that time. Remember, we can't even make a gut judgement call because he wasn't even given a choice as Chancellor.

Here's the post I hadn't responded to.

I don't believe you can accurately extrapolate more than 2-3 Presidents ahead in this game; every time I've seen people try, their guesses end up wrong. Different policies, failed governments, a lot can throw off the timing. So better to make decisions based on the next 2 to 3 candidates and your gut reads.

And once again, kumba having a choiceless Chancellor time is a null read, putting him in the same category as everyone else who has not been in government. But you're ignoring them to focus on him. It makes no sense.

TMMadman
Sep 9, 2003

He will be injured, but in the World Series he will be raised from the DL. And the Indians were filled with grief.


Byers2142 posted:

The original argument by TMM wss to get both investigation before kumba and have him double up. That plan required near perfect setup, but even after that was pointed out he continued skipping earlier Presidents to focus on kumba. Like I said before, focusing on kumba over others before him delayed the time that investigation would be useful. Then he laid an ultimatum of not voting in a kumba government without an investigation, with no justification for it.

If the argument was to add to the CPig/RF/DB suggestions, that's one thing. But that focus on kumba feels like TMM is trying to force something.

I feel like this is a misrepresentation of my argument. I was focused on kumba because I realized that he will be up for President at what could be a very dangerous time and because he was not actually given choice as Chancellor. I've posted various scenarios both positive and negative that show that his spot in the election order is going to come at a pivotal time.

I don't understand how you aren't at least acknowledging that fact. I didn't want kumba to get doubled up but I felt that if things went wrong prior to his Presidency that we could double him up if he was investigated first.

As it stands now, he is probably more likely to be the one who gets to enact the special election, so I still think it would be real nice to know his alignment.

King Burgundy
Sep 17, 2003

I am the Burgundy King,
I can do anything!

For what it's worth, what I've taken from this conversation thus far is I should probably be investigating RF. He seems like the closest to a consensus choice between the various possibilities.

If I was submitting right now, that is who it would be. Seems to hit the sweet spot of nearish president, potential lynch pin president, probably won't be the 2nd person with the investigation.

So feel free to continue to post and sway me off that choice if you have a stronger candidate.

CapitalistPig
Nov 3, 2005

You turn the corner and see a greenskinned fuckmidget.
Roll for initiative.

King Burgundy posted:

For what it's worth, what I've taken from this conversation thus far is I should probably be investigating RF. He seems like the closest to a consensus choice between the various possibilities.

If I was submitting right now, that is who it would be. Seems to hit the sweet spot of nearish president, potential lynch pin president, probably won't be the 2nd person with the investigation.

So feel free to continue to post and sway me off that choice if you have a stronger candidate.

RF is a good choice I think.

TMMadman
Sep 9, 2003

He will be injured, but in the World Series he will be raised from the DL. And the Indians were filled with grief.


Byers2142 posted:

Here's the post I hadn't responded to.

I don't believe you can accurately extrapolate more than 2-3 Presidents ahead in this game; every time I've seen people try, their guesses end up wrong. Different policies, failed governments, a lot can throw off the timing. So better to make decisions based on the next 2 to 3 candidates and your gut reads.

And once again, kumba having a choiceless Chancellor time is a null read, putting him in the same category as everyone else who has not been in government. But you're ignoring them to focus on him. It makes no sense.

And that's why I also explained several different scenarios and showed that he is very likely to be an important President.

I would probably let an uninvestigated kumba be President if we're at 4S1F when it's his turn, but I don't think I'd want to elect kumba is we're at 3S2F or 2S3F because I'm not sure I'd trust him with the executive power.

CapnAndy
Feb 27, 2004

This is how Davos feels.
This is how Davos feels all the time.



King Burgundy posted:

For what it's worth, what I've taken from this conversation thus far is I should probably be investigating RF. He seems like the closest to a consensus choice between the various possibilities.

If I was submitting right now, that is who it would be. Seems to hit the sweet spot of nearish president, potential lynch pin president, probably won't be the 2nd person with the investigation.

So feel free to continue to post and sway me off that choice if you have a stronger candidate.
RF is good enough and we're talking this to death. Do it.

kumba
Nov 8, 2003


enjoy the ride


Lipstick Apathy

King Burgundy posted:

For what it's worth, what I've taken from this conversation thus far is I should probably be investigating RF. He seems like the closest to a consensus choice between the various possibilities.

If I was submitting right now, that is who it would be. Seems to hit the sweet spot of nearish president, potential lynch pin president, probably won't be the 2nd person with the investigation.

So feel free to continue to post and sway me off that choice if you have a stronger candidate.

sounds good to me

TMMadman
Sep 9, 2003

He will be injured, but in the World Series he will be raised from the DL. And the Indians were filled with grief.


King Burgundy posted:

For what it's worth, what I've taken from this conversation thus far is I should probably be investigating RF. He seems like the closest to a consensus choice between the various possibilities.

If I was submitting right now, that is who it would be. Seems to hit the sweet spot of nearish president, potential lynch pin president, probably won't be the 2nd person with the investigation.

So feel free to continue to post and sway me off that choice if you have a stronger candidate.

Actually doesn't RF have the highest chance to get the 2nd investigation? Remember, RF will be the first person to use a reshuffled deck unless we purposely go through 2 chaos government pulls after the CPig government but before the next one.

Right now there are 3 liberal cards out of 8 which means that CPig has something like an 80% chance of getting one of them. And then if he only picks one liberal card then DB would have 2 liberal cards left out of 5.

kumba
Nov 8, 2003


enjoy the ride


Lipstick Apathy

TMMadman posted:

Actually doesn't RF have the highest chance to get the 2nd investigation? Remember, RF will be the first person to use a reshuffled deck unless we purposely go through 2 chaos government pulls after the CPig government but before the next one.

Right now there are 3 liberal cards out of 8 which means that CPig has something like an 80% chance of getting one of them. And then if he only picks one liberal card then DB would have 2 liberal cards left out of 5.

i would think it to be highly unlikely we pass 2 liberal policies in the next two presidencies

TMMadman
Sep 9, 2003

He will be injured, but in the World Series he will be raised from the DL. And the Indians were filled with grief.


kumba posted:

i would think it to be highly unlikely we pass 2 liberal policies in the next two presidencies

Yeah but if that's the case then it's because someone in there is a fascist.

King Burgundy
Sep 17, 2003

I am the Burgundy King,
I can do anything!

TMMadman posted:

Actually doesn't RF have the highest chance to get the 2nd investigation? Remember, RF will be the first person to use a reshuffled deck unless we purposely go through 2 chaos government pulls after the CPig government but before the next one.

Right now there are 3 liberal cards out of 8 which means that CPig has something like an 80% chance of getting one of them. And then if he only picks one liberal card then DB would have 2 liberal cards left out of 5.

I mean, if that actually happens, then we are in pretty good shape with 4 liberal policies passed and only 1 fascist and we have RF investigate someone that isn't me so it isn't a chain investigation.

More likely, either we've already had fascists in power and the card count isn't what we think it is, or they will be in power over the next two goes and even if they get liberal cards, the policies might not pass.

I think it is one of the safer bets personally after this discussion. And it covers the extreme scenario of the next two passes being fascist.

TMMadman
Sep 9, 2003

He will be injured, but in the World Series he will be raised from the DL. And the Indians were filled with grief.


Also we can use the investigation target as the Chancellor to the one of the next two presidencies (provided it's a liberal result) to help try to get liberal policies enacted.

kumba
Nov 8, 2003


enjoy the ride


Lipstick Apathy

TMMadman posted:

Yeah but if that's the case then it's because someone in there is a fascist.

or they pulled 3 fascist cards

but more to my point was that it's incredibly unlikely that it makes it all the way to RF before the 2nd investigation has already happened, so he does not have the highest chance of getting to use it

TMMadman
Sep 9, 2003

He will be injured, but in the World Series he will be raised from the DL. And the Indians were filled with grief.


kumba posted:

or they pulled 3 fascist cards

but more to my point was that it's incredibly unlikely that it makes it all the way to RF before the 2nd investigation has already happened, so he does not have the highest chance of getting to use it

That would be a pretty unlucky pull if the card count is right. There's like a 90% chance to pull a liberal card with 2 out of 5.

kumba
Nov 8, 2003


enjoy the ride


Lipstick Apathy

we also don't know for sure that there's 3 liberal cards left given that someone could have lied somewhere, so banking on that seems unwise

kumba
Nov 8, 2003


enjoy the ride


Lipstick Apathy

TMMadman posted:

That would be a pretty unlucky pull if the card count is right. There's like a 90% chance to pull a liberal card with 2 out of 5.

right, but 40% of the game are fascists

all of these things combined do not make your hypothesis anywhere close to guaranteed

CapnAndy
Feb 27, 2004

This is how Davos feels.
This is how Davos feels all the time.



kumba posted:

we also don't know for sure that there's 3 liberal cards left given that someone could have lied somewhere, so banking on that seems unwise
Chancellors have a hard time lying about that, though -- I know you didn't. Unless PMush/whoever (that was the first president/chancellor team, right?) are both fascists, we can trust that the chancellor did indeed get one fascist and one liberal card the first time around. And the odds that PMush and myself are both fascists are pretty bad.

Just do the investigate already though, seriously, we can play silly statistics games forever.

Dick Bastardly
Aug 22, 2012


King Burgundy posted:

For what it's worth, what I've taken from this conversation thus far is I should probably be investigating RF. He seems like the closest to a consensus choice between the various possibilities.

If I was submitting right now, that is who it would be. Seems to hit the sweet spot of nearish president, potential lynch pin president, probably won't be the 2nd person with the investigation.

So feel free to continue to post and sway me off that choice if you have a stronger candidate.

I think kumba would be my first choice but concur with this as well.

kumba
Nov 8, 2003


enjoy the ride


Lipstick Apathy

CapnAndy posted:

Chancellors have a hard time lying about that, though -- I know you didn't. Unless PMush/whoever (that was the first president/chancellor team, right?) are both fascists, we can trust that the chancellor did indeed get one fascist and one liberal card the first time around. And the odds that PMush and myself are both fascists are pretty bad.

Just do the investigate already though, seriously, we can play silly statistics games forever.

right, but PMush could have thrown out a liberal card and lied about it without the chancellor coming into the equation at all. same with you

but yes i agree, investigate someone already

TMMadman
Sep 9, 2003

He will be injured, but in the World Series he will be raised from the DL. And the Indians were filled with grief.


kumba posted:

we also don't know for sure that there's 3 liberal cards left given that someone could have lied somewhere, so banking on that seems unwise

kumba posted:

right, but 40% of the game are fascists

all of these things combined do not make your hypothesis anywhere close to guaranteed

I understand both of these things but fascists are also sort of forced to play more liberally early in the game or they can give themselves away, so I feel like early information is probably true even if it's from a fascist.

I think we have to assume there is at least 1 liberal card left in the deck as I would assume the chances of PMush/CapnAndy/KB all being fascist AND all pulling an extra liberal card are astronomical. If the count is wrong, then it's probably one of Pmush or KB. I mean I guess CapnAndy could have picked 3 liberal cards but I think that's unlikely.

kumba
Nov 8, 2003


enjoy the ride


Lipstick Apathy

TMMadman posted:

I understand both of these things but fascists are also sort of forced to play more liberally early in the game or they can give themselves away, so I feel like early information is probably true even if it's from a fascist.

I think we have to assume there is at least 1 liberal card left in the deck as I would assume the chances of PMush/CapnAndy/KB all being fascist AND all pulling an extra liberal card are astronomical. If the count is wrong, then it's probably one of Pmush or KB. I mean I guess CapnAndy could have picked 3 liberal cards but I think that's unlikely.

fair

King Burgundy
Sep 17, 2003

I am the Burgundy King,
I can do anything!

TMMadman posted:

I understand both of these things but fascists are also sort of forced to play more liberally early in the game or they can give themselves away, so I feel like early information is probably true even if it's from a fascist.

I think we have to assume there is at least 1 liberal card left in the deck as I would assume the chances of PMush/CapnAndy/KB all being fascist AND all pulling an extra liberal card are astronomical. If the count is wrong, then it's probably one of Pmush or KB. I mean I guess CapnAndy could have picked 3 liberal cards but I think that's unlikely.

Yeah. I think Cap is a fascist, but it would be super weird for him to have gotten 3 liberal cards. From my perspective if the count is wrong it would most likely fall on Pmush, but Pmush seems completely reasonable to me this game so far. So I'm pretty sure Pig's administration will get a liberal card. And if he just gets one, then DB's admin will also get one based on odds.

But just because they will be getting the cards, doesn't mean their admins will pass those.

TMMadman
Sep 9, 2003

He will be injured, but in the World Series he will be raised from the DL. And the Indians were filled with grief.


King Burgundy posted:

Yeah. I think Cap is a fascist, but it would be super weird for him to have gotten 3 liberal cards. From my perspective if the count is wrong it would most likely fall on Pmush, but Pmush seems completely reasonable to me this game so far. So I'm pretty sure Pig's administration will get a liberal card. And if he just gets one, then DB's admin will also get one based on odds.

But just because they will be getting the cards, doesn't mean their admins will pass those.

But the thing is that liberals can force it to happen or force a fascist President to give themselves away by being careful about the Chancellor. If we use the investigated person as a chancellor for one of the next two presidencies then we can be sure one liberal policy will get enacted. And if we can figure out a 2nd person to use as a chancellor then we can somewhat assured that they will make the right choice.

kumba
Nov 8, 2003


enjoy the ride


Lipstick Apathy

you are ignoring the possibility of the person using the investigation themselves being fascist, invalidating said investigation

TMMadman
Sep 9, 2003

He will be injured, but in the World Series he will be raised from the DL. And the Indians were filled with grief.


kumba posted:

you are ignoring the possibility of the person using the investigation themselves being fascist, invalidating said investigation

I'm not ignoring it. I just don't think KB is a fascist at this point in time.

Anomalous Amalgam
Feb 13, 2015

In time, you will know the tragic extent of my failings...


Doctor Rope

kumba posted:

you are ignoring the possibility of the person using the investigation themselves being fascist, invalidating said investigation

It is a possibility I've considered. That KB is fascist or even Hitler, but we have nothing else to go on.

We would hang to the investigation results pretty heavily.

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

King Burgundy
Sep 17, 2003

I am the Burgundy King,
I can do anything!

Went through today to see if everyone has commented on RF as a pick:

CapitalistPig - Good
Dick Bastardly - Prefers Kumba but fine with RF
Retro Futurist - Good
kumba - Good
Anomalous Amalgam - Prefers DB but fine with RF
TMMadman - Prefers Kumba
Byers2142 - Can be inferred that fine with RF("Push out past the next two presidents")
PMush Perfect - last comment was alright with DB
CapnAndy - Good
King Burgundy - Good

---

So pretty much good to go, but I'll give a bit more time in case Pmush or Byers have more to say.

  • Locked thread
«36 »