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TMMadman
Sep 9, 2003

He will be injured, but in the World Series he will be raised from the DL. And the Indians were filled with grief.


I've never played Secret Hitler before, but I'll give it a shot.

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TMMadman
Sep 9, 2003

He will be injured, but in the World Series he will be raised from the DL. And the Indians were filled with grief.


This might sound weird but Clinton might just be my favorite President simply because of nostalgia. He took office when I two years after I graduated high school and even though I ended up ultimately failing at college and living at home while working a dead end job, I still look at that time fondly simply because it was the formative years of the internet and computer gaming for me.

I don't really remember the policies and wasn't really interested in politics at the time, but I do feel like it was overall a better time for America than has been since. Of course, he may also ultimately be responsible (or at least the cause of) the widening divide between Republicans and Democrats, but that's a whole different debate.

TMMadman
Sep 9, 2003

He will be injured, but in the World Series he will be raised from the DL. And the Indians were filled with grief.


Also he got a blowjob in the oval office and possibly did kinky things with a cigar.

TMMadman
Sep 9, 2003

He will be injured, but in the World Series he will be raised from the DL. And the Indians were filled with grief.


CapnAndy posted:

Well technically we vote no if we think he's a fascist, but we have zero information on everybody right now so:

##vote yes

Aren't we technically voting in both the President and the Chancellor? So you have to consider both people in the equation.

I'm fine with voting yes because we have no information and it'll be good to get the game going, but I will say that I'm a little concerned about this pairing. Something has my spider sense tingling, but it's could just be my natural paranoia so I'm not willing to do anything more than mention it right now.

##vote yes

TMMadman
Sep 9, 2003

He will be injured, but in the World Series he will be raised from the DL. And the Indians were filled with grief.


kumba posted:



i was thinking this game was going to be relatively easy to solve but now after actually seeing what kind of information we have this is super wifomy

Yeah, I was going to ask if it really matters what PMush says she got, but then I realized it actually does matter in a wifom-y way.

TMMadman
Sep 9, 2003

He will be injured, but in the World Series he will be raised from the DL. And the Indians were filled with grief.


kumba posted:

i would also vote yes to confirm myself (i'm assuming that is allowed)

Well, since byers did it to himself yesterday, you can surely do it yourself today!

TMMadman
Sep 9, 2003

He will be injured, but in the World Series he will be raised from the DL. And the Indians were filled with grief.


It seems like things are running smoothly.

It also seems like there isn't much to discuss as long as a liberal policy is passed. I'm not saying I trust any of the people who've been in government 100% just yet, but I also see no reason to doubt any of them either.

Of course, I guess that is kind of assuming that kumba had a choice and didn't get 2 liberal policies.

TMMadman
Sep 9, 2003

He will be injured, but in the World Series he will be raised from the DL. And the Indians were filled with grief.


PMush Perfect posted:

I feel it worth mentioning that while regular fascists have motivation to cause trouble, the absolute best play for Hitler is playing 100% Liberal.

And that is why I don't trust anyone 100% just yet.

Hitler is obviously going to be 100% liberal and I'm assuming that a fascist who was given an early choice (like in these first two rounds) might also choose a liberal policy, especially since the first power is an investigation.

TMMadman
Sep 9, 2003

He will be injured, but in the World Series he will be raised from the DL. And the Indians were filled with grief.


I would investigate kumba because he, a) didn't have a choice and b) will be President at what is likely to be a very dangerous time.

I'm assuming that a fascist policy will get enacted today simple because there are only 2 liberal cards currently available out of 11. Now maybe KB gets lucky and draws one of those two cards, but I'm not counting on it.

Then we have to go through CPig, DB and RF. If all three are able to act, we'll very likely be either at 4 fascist/2 liberal or 3 liberal/3 fascist. The deck would resuffle when RF picks his 3 cards in this case, so there is a chance we could get to 2 fascist/4 liberal but I'm not sure I'd place any bets on it.

So as you can see kumba should definitely be a potential investigation target, although maybe it could wait until the 2nd investigation if you wanted to look at one of Cpig/DB/RF first.

TMMadman
Sep 9, 2003

He will be injured, but in the World Series he will be raised from the DL. And the Indians were filled with grief.


King Burgundy posted:

Aren't there 3 left? Should only be 2 left if Pmush was lying about how many liberal policies she drew. If she drew 2, and discarded one, then there would only be 2 left.

16 cards to start: 11 fascist, 5 liberal.
1 liberal card drawn D1
2 liberal cards drawn D2

That means only 2 left for now.

TMMadman
Sep 9, 2003

He will be injured, but in the World Series he will be raised from the DL. And the Indians were filled with grief.


King Burgundy posted:

Per the rules link, 10 player game doesn't have any special rebalancing:

"The 11 Fascist Policy tiles and the 6 Liberal Policy tiles are shuffled into a single Policy deck."

https://secrethitler.io/rules

So that's 17 to start, 6 liberal. 3 left. Unless Pmush or CapnAndy lied and got one more liberal policy then stated.

My bad, I thought the game only had the 5 liberal cards since that's all you need to win.

TMMadman
Sep 9, 2003

He will be injured, but in the World Series he will be raised from the DL. And the Indians were filled with grief.


Also I'm apparently bad at math since 11+4+2 != 16.

TMMadman
Sep 9, 2003

He will be injured, but in the World Series he will be raised from the DL. And the Indians were filled with grief.


Also, regardless of whether I made a wrong assumption with how many liberal polcies are left, it still wouldn't change my opinion or reasons about investigating kumba.

TMMadman
Sep 9, 2003

He will be injured, but in the World Series he will be raised from the DL. And the Indians were filled with grief.


CapnAndy posted:

I would personally prefer CPig just so we get immediately useable knowledge. Liberal/Fascist governments aren't good for the fascists; if they can't control both sides of it to make up whatever lies they like, they have to lie low to avoid getting their obvious bullshit called out.

Do you think one of the two investigations we get should be used on kumba?

TMMadman
Sep 9, 2003

He will be injured, but in the World Series he will be raised from the DL. And the Indians were filled with grief.


PMush Perfect posted:

I'd also like to see CPig get scoped out, and if he isn't, I'm going to be very suspicious of someone who gave us technically-useful information that we can't do anything with until another go round.

Same question as the one posted above.

TMMadman
Sep 9, 2003

He will be injured, but in the World Series he will be raised from the DL. And the Indians were filled with grief.


PMush Perfect posted:

i think itd actually be most productive to use it on whoever investigates first because then we get a triple confirm for two investigations

Why do you think that CPig is a more important person than kumba?

In my opinion, CPig isn't nearly as important as kumba for several reasons. As I stated earlier he wasn't given a choice and he's going to be in a position of incredible power when his presidency comes up. And it's very likely that the special election gets run before kumba is President. If we know that kumba is a liberal then we can get kumba elected for the special election and then have him be the president again shortly afterwards.

TMMadman
Sep 9, 2003

He will be injured, but in the World Series he will be raised from the DL. And the Indians were filled with grief.


I will say that having 3 cards instead of 2 changes things slightly, but I am still more concerned about kumba than I am about CPig.

I'd rather just let CPig just have his turn and then decide whether to trust or not trust him based on the outcome than not get information about someone who is going to have much more power.

TMMadman
Sep 9, 2003

He will be injured, but in the World Series he will be raised from the DL. And the Indians were filled with grief.


King Burgundy posted:

Putting the cart before the horse slightly. Still a decent chance I'll draw a liberal policy.

Yeah with there being 3 liberal cards left in the deck there's a better chance than I originally assumed of getting a liberal card.

And in fact, if we can pass a liberal policy today then it makes my argument for investigating kumba even stronger.

TMMadman
Sep 9, 2003

He will be injured, but in the World Series he will be raised from the DL. And the Indians were filled with grief.


The way I see it is that if Kumba is investigated first then he can be used as a Chancellor if needed before he's President, then it's entirely possible to make him President twice (possible im a row) and then as a safe Chancellor after he's President. The only dangerous time would be the government directly after his 2nd one since he would be term limited at that point. I guess there would be some danger with who he picks as Chancellor but we should be able to figure out a safe choice.

TMMadman
Sep 9, 2003

He will be injured, but in the World Series he will be raised from the DL. And the Indians were filled with grief.


I'd say go ahead and nominate. We can always talk until the votes come in.

I sort of get the reasoning on why CPig could be a good investigation since we want to have trusted people as Chancellor later in the game and by investigating CPig we can ensure that he is telling the truth if he investigated KB right after. And then we would have two trustworthy people to be Chancellors.

However, I feel like it's equally or possibly more important to have a President you can trust. After all, the President sees more cards and a fascist President can force a liberal Chancellor to pick a fascist policy while also lying about discarding a liberal policy.

Kumba is sitting right in that spot where he could be President either right after or one turn after the special election, so we could have a chance at having a trusted player go chancellor for RF, specially elected president, regularly elected president (or chancellor in the middle of the presidencies).

Yes, we would have to trust that CPig (assuming he got the 2nd investigation) isn't a fascist covering for a fascist KB who would be our secondary chancellor, but I'm willing to take that chance and it can be tested during a kumba presidency.

TMMadman
Sep 9, 2003

He will be injured, but in the World Series he will be raised from the DL. And the Indians were filled with grief.


Byers2142 posted:

I'm not sure kumba should be set in stone for an investigation, for one reason: all of the logic used to pick him assumes all governments between now and kumba get voted in. That's, what, four governments from now? I don't see four governments passing without incident once fascist policies start getting played, especially given who is eligible for Chancellor if we continue picking people who haven't served yet.

The argument being made is that three fascists policies are going to be played before kumba is President, and a clean investigation would allow us to double up with a relatively trusted President. I don't see that happening. The timing is so tight that it's more likely we get confirmation on or after kumba's assigned Presidency, not before, and we miss the double up.

Better in my opinion to look at getting an investigation on an earlier President, even if you can't get the second investigation in time to confirm the first. Eventually, we can use the second investigation per PMush's suggestion (which I think is a good one) and hopefully have a little more information to work with earlier. So looking at CPig or Dick makes more sense to me.

I feel like this actually makes my case for investigating kumba even stronger.

Yes, I wss assuming that all the governments between now and kumba get passed, but even if one or even two of them don't, I still think that kumba is the best choice for investigation.

Even if KB picks 3 fascist cards today and doesn't investigate CPig, I see no reason to vote no to a CPig government basically regardless of his chancellor nomination. After all, the worst that happens is that we get a 2nd fascist policy but also our 2nd investigation. At that point, we can either decide to let one of the next two governments get elected on the condition that they make kumba the president if a fascist policy is passed. Or we just blindly deny DB/RF their chance at power in order to install a trusted kumba as President.

TMMadman
Sep 9, 2003

He will be injured, but in the World Series he will be raised from the DL. And the Indians were filled with grief.


Byers2142 posted:

Wait, why is it stronger? At that point, you require three fascist policies in a row with three successfully approved governments to do the double. And you require two liberal Presidents on the investigations. That's not just tight, it's banking on a near-perfect set up. One wrong thing, and you miss out on potentially being able to use the investigation earlier and the double up you're aiming for.

I was a little wrong there because I forgot to account for the shuffle happening a round earlier than I thought at first.

I still think Kumba is the best choice for investigation just based on how things have played out so far plus the possibility of him being elected at an important time.

TMMadman
Sep 9, 2003

He will be injured, but in the World Series he will be raised from the DL. And the Indians were filled with grief.


##vote yes

TMMadman
Sep 9, 2003

He will be injured, but in the World Series he will be raised from the DL. And the Indians were filled with grief.


Byers2142 posted:

Do you trust KB and CPig that much? Everything hinges on the investigations being accurate and their truthfulness in cards discarded/passed. The more you put this plan forward, the less I like it. Everything is based on giving kumba power.

CPig is admittedly a bit of a question mark as far as trust goes, but I aslo don't see reason not to trust them either. Getting wrapped up in paranoia is not going to help me play.

TMMadman
Sep 9, 2003

He will be injured, but in the World Series he will be raised from the DL. And the Indians were filled with grief.


Also just to hash this out, hold off on the 5th vote for a little bit.

TMMadman
Sep 9, 2003

He will be injured, but in the World Series he will be raised from the DL. And the Indians were filled with grief.


Byers2142 posted:

Ok, i think you're saying leave out the double up, then. Why kumba over Presidential candidates who come up before kumba? That more than anything is making me worry, you're setting up an argument for kumba to be in government as much as possible and to be elected Chancellor shortly after the third fascist policy drops, and your initial reasoning given (even after correcting the card counts) requires very specific circumstances to work out in our favor.

Part of it is because kumba wasn't given a choice by CapnAndy. I realize it was probably the best move, but I think I would have rather had Andy draw 2 fascist/1 liberal.

I also think that investigating kumba will provide some information on Andy.

I'll go ahead and admit that I'm a little concerned that a fascist Andy picked a fascist kumba and then got lucky by drawing 2 liberal cards and now they both get to play it off as being liberal.

I know I just said I don't want to be too paranoid, but that is the thing nibbling at me and given kumbas position in the presidental order, I just think it makes sense.

TMMadman
Sep 9, 2003

He will be injured, but in the World Series he will be raised from the DL. And the Indians were filled with grief.


I will say that kumba is making me doubt that theory a bit since he seems fine with being investigated.

TMMadman
Sep 9, 2003

He will be injured, but in the World Series he will be raised from the DL. And the Indians were filled with grief.


King Burgundy posted:

BTW, is this the best move in general? Like if somehow I get two liberal cards on this draw, should I offer them both to TMM?

I think it probably is always the best move simply because you are ensuring that a liberal policy gets passed.

TMMadman
Sep 9, 2003

He will be injured, but in the World Series he will be raised from the DL. And the Indians were filled with grief.


I guess maybe discarding one possibly in this situation or when there is one fascist policy already enacted would be a good way to test the chancellor. I think it would be dangerous to use as a test after two fascist policies were enacted.

TMMadman
Sep 9, 2003

He will be injured, but in the World Series he will be raised from the DL. And the Indians were filled with grief.


CapnAndy posted:

Are you nuts? That's a fascist dream play, we'd get to pass a fascist policy, handwring about "three fash policies nothing we could do sorry guys" and gently caress the discard count so that the team that actually does get three fashes looks suspicious. I take offense on my own hypothetical behalf.

Also I really don't see the logic in the first president to get an investigate targeting anyone other than the next guy in the succession when it happens. It gives us immediately actionable intelligence, and if the target's trustworthy he's good Chancellor bait going further.

Unless one of you is Hitler.

TMMadman
Sep 9, 2003

He will be injured, but in the World Series he will be raised from the DL. And the Indians were filled with grief.


Or maybe I'm just paranoid and talking out of my rear end while bored.

I guess part of this is all because I'm new to the game, but it just seems like focusing on the person in line is strictly small picture thinking. I understand you want trustworthy people but if you don't have someone trustworthy in the future line then it seems like you run thr risk of enacting the top card.

If KB investigated CPig and then Cpig investigated KB, then we would be sitting at 2 fascist policies and we'd probably start denying governments at which point we'd have to elect kumba and whoever he picks or just take the top policy.

TMMadman
Sep 9, 2003

He will be injured, but in the World Series he will be raised from the DL. And the Indians were filled with grief.


Byers2142 posted:

Why would we deny a Dick or Retro government in that case? Again, I don't get how kumba is the guaranteed lynchpin.

You literally said just a short time ago that governments would start getting denied once some fascist policies start showing up.

And now you're wondering why we would deny DB or RF a government after 2 fascist policies got enacted?

And besides, I'm just pointing out that if we did deny those two governments then we would have to either accept kumba or take the top policy.

TMMadman
Sep 9, 2003

He will be injured, but in the World Series he will be raised from the DL. And the Indians were filled with grief.


Like I'm fine if we end up investigating somone else because I would just oppose letting kumba into government and argue for everyone else to do the same.

TMMadman
Sep 9, 2003

He will be injured, but in the World Series he will be raised from the DL. And the Indians were filled with grief.


Byers2142 posted:

My point was that even one denied government stops your plan, which required near-flawless circumstances. You just suggested skipping two governments with people who are as yet unknown qualities to again put kumba specifically at the fore. There's a difference.

No I was pointing out what could happen in your scenario of investigating the next person and then having that person investigate the person who investigated them on the next turn.

It's just showing that kumba is very likely going to be right in the middle of things at a very dangerous time and I think it would be good to know his alignment before those things come to pass.

TMMadman
Sep 9, 2003

He will be injured, but in the World Series he will be raised from the DL. And the Indians were filled with grief.


Byers2142 posted:

On what grounds? Your fixation on kumba makes no sense to me. Now you're advocating kumba not be in government ever again without an investigation. Why?

I'm sorry, the initial plan seemed bad, and none of the reasoning since feels genuine. TMM is stretching to make kumba important in future plans, and I don't like or trust it. I don't want him as Chancellor.

##vote no

On the grounds that I'm not really going to trust him without the investigation. That could change if he gets into government again without my vote, but until that happens I don't see a reason to explicitly trust him or CapnAndy for that matter.

What reason do you have to trust him so much right now?

TMMadman
Sep 9, 2003

He will be injured, but in the World Series he will be raised from the DL. And the Indians were filled with grief.


Byers2142 posted:

I don't; like I said he is a null read to me, just like everyone who has yet to serve in government since he did nothing of note in his turn as Chancellor. You're making a fascist read barring an investigation, and with no reason for that read.

And?

There are 4 fascists out there and I've gotta start somewhere, so why can't I think he might be one and want to freeze him out of government?

I'm just one vote and I've already stated that I would be willing to revise my opinion if he was to get into government again without my vote.

TMMadman
Sep 9, 2003

He will be injured, but in the World Series he will be raised from the DL. And the Indians were filled with grief.


I just feel like people are focused on the short term but thinking long term feels more important to me.

I'm almost home and I'll see if i can't explain it better when I'm not on my phone.

TMMadman
Sep 9, 2003

He will be injured, but in the World Series he will be raised from the DL. And the Indians were filled with grief.


King Burgundy posted:

Keep in mind, unless you mistrust me as well, blocking this election is kind of silly. I'll be able to announce the three cards I drew. And I would be the one choosing the investigation target if he passes a fascist policy. So even if it turns out TMM is a bad guy, the only potential bad thing that happens is if I pass him a liberal policy and he doesn't use it. But that's a positive at this point too, right? We out him as bad and still only have one fascist policy enacted. Would be great to find out more about him right now when he's chancellor than later when it is more dangerous and he would be president.

This is my thinking as well. There really is no reason to deny this government unless they think we are both fascists.

And while I can see people thinking I'm a fascist, it's not as easy to think your one with me.

TMMadman
Sep 9, 2003

He will be injured, but in the World Series he will be raised from the DL. And the Indians were filled with grief.


Ok, I'm home now, so let me see if I can't explain this a bit better.

Right now we've passed 2 liberal policies and have pulled 3 of the 6 liberal cards. I think this KB government should pass regardless of whether you think I'm a fascist or not. At the very least, you'll learn something about KB and I've probably stirred up enough poo poo that I'm not sure I'll get back into government anyway even if KB pulls/passes one of the liberal cards and I enact it.

Now the reason I still think kumba should be investigated first is because of the way the game seems to be playing out right now and the information we have. Right now, the Presidential order is KB, CPig, DB, RF, kumba. And let's assume that KB's government passes (as it should because of how early it is in the game) at which point he'll either pass me two fascist cards or at least 1 liberal card. If a liberal policy is enacted, then people can decide how they want to feel afterwards. If a fascist policy is enacted then he'll get an investigation that has to be done before the next President is elected.

Byers and CapnAndy seem to think the investigation should be automatically be the next person in line for government while I think it should be kumba because he is going to be in a very good position of power in the very near future basically regardless of how things shake out in front of him. Now I would almost certainly be thinking differently if the situation was different, but that's now how it is right now.

Now if KB investigates CPig and says he's a liberal, then we obviously elect his government and see what happens since if KB got 3 fascist cards then CPig has a decent chance of drawing a liberal card and passing it on. However, if CPigs government ends up passing a fascist policy, then CPig turns around and investigates KB to be sure that KB was telling the truth and then we are supposed to have 2 people who we know we can trust to be Chancellors in the future. But in my opinion that still leaves the problem that we don't have anyone in the near future that we can safely elect. See the problem for me is that if we end up in that position, then we are looking at electing DB with 2 fascist policies on the board already. Now that's not a completely terrible position since the reshuffle should also come during DBs turn, so I think he would have a higher chance of being able to pass on a liberal policy.

So what are we supposed to do if there are two fascist policies enacted and we are looking at the untested DB and RF as our next two governments? Sure, they should have a better chance to pass a liberal policy, but if both of them get elected and one of them passes a fascist policy then we are looking at untested/uninvestigated kumba possibly getting elected with 3 fascist policies on the board. And as I said earlier, if we decide instead to pass on both DB/RF then we have to either elect an unproved kumba or take the top policy. If we pass one of DB/RF then we could skip kumba but depending on the timing we'd be looking at AA or me as the government you'd have to take to avoid the top policy card.

So can you guys see why kumba is important here? Or at least why I personally think he is important in this particular game?

Even looking at it a different way, if KBs government enacts a liberal policy, then of course we'd have no reason to object to a CPig government and it would likely end up passing a fascist policy (whether forced or not would be the question) and he would end up getting the first investigation. Now he could investigate DB because with just 1 fascist policy there is no real reason not to elect DB and then DB could investigate CPig if he ends up with the 2nd investigation. So if that happens, then we are looking at an untested RF with 2 fascist policies on the board which would require some discussion before electing because if he does get elected and ended up passing fascist, then once again we are looking at electing kumba president with 3 fascist policies on the board and AA and me next in line, so I would basically be insisting that you pass on kumba/AA to elect me since the only person I absolutely trust is myself. Or again, you'd be looking at possibly skipping RF/kumba and electing AA.

So once again, you can see that kumba is right in the middle of things at a time when it'd be really nice to know his alignment so that we can make an informed choice.

So I'm just not getting the resistance to thinking that kumba is a very good choice for the investigation.

Like even going through the rules linked in the first post, the Cucu strategy is to pick the person two people in front of the current President, so it would be KB investigating DB and then DB picking KB as his chancellor. And if you want to add in the pre-cucu strategy then it would be to have CPig picking DB as his chancellor. So it feels like the people who are trying to get CPig as the investigation are trying to slip something past everyone.

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TMMadman
Sep 9, 2003

He will be injured, but in the World Series he will be raised from the DL. And the Indians were filled with grief.


Also, I know this is the first time I've played this game, but it just seems to me like investigating the next President and then investigating the first investigation isn't always optimal. Like maybe it's optimal if the previous rounds have been optimal, but since they weren't done 'by the numbers' then it seems like trying to force the game into trying to be optimal isn't the best idea.

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