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King Burgundy
Sep 17, 2003

I am the Burgundy King,
I can do anything!

I'll play.

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King Burgundy
Sep 17, 2003

I am the Burgundy King,
I can do anything!

Obama is my favorite modern president. He's not my perfect president or anything, plenty of issues, but he's the closest we will probably see during my lifetime unless something changes drastically with how we elect people.

King Burgundy
Sep 17, 2003

I am the Burgundy King,
I can do anything!

Although I own this in real life, I've still never played it. So the mechanics discussion between pmush and byers means nothing to me.

King Burgundy
Sep 17, 2003

I am the Burgundy King,
I can do anything!

Byers2142 posted:

Short answer, President goes in order, picking Chancellors not likely to be Presidents right away maximizes the people we get to see and judge in the government. More data early.

Ahh ok.

King Burgundy
Sep 17, 2003

I am the Burgundy King,
I can do anything!

CapnAndy posted:

We should just name a Chancellor and get on with it, though. There's nothing to do with no information.

I agree with this.

King Burgundy
Sep 17, 2003

I am the Burgundy King,
I can do anything!

That nom seems fine. Would vote yes.

King Burgundy
Sep 17, 2003

I am the Burgundy King,
I can do anything!

So we know how many cards of each type are in the deck, so we should know at a certain point if anyone lied, right?

King Burgundy
Sep 17, 2003

I am the Burgundy King,
I can do anything!

So right now, if Pmush and Byers are telling the truth, we have 9 fascist policies and 5 liberal policies left in the deck.

That would mean chances of drawing a liberal policy have slightly increased?

King Burgundy
Sep 17, 2003

I am the Burgundy King,
I can do anything!

Dancer posted:

I strive to not insert myself in the conversation, but it occurs to me that I have not yet explained this detail: If, at the moment that 3 policy cards are supposed to be drawn, there are less than 3 remaining in the deck, they are immediately shuffled with the entire discard pile. So it will almost certainly be impossible to track everything (though you might have enough information to catch some liars).

(for the record, I'm also not sure how I feel about this rule. If I end up running this game more times, I might change it).

Ah. So last 2 cards remain as hidden information, allowing some lie wiggle room for the fascists. I guess that makes sense.

King Burgundy
Sep 17, 2003

I am the Burgundy King,
I can do anything!

##vote yes

King Burgundy
Sep 17, 2003

I am the Burgundy King,
I can do anything!

Cool.

What cards did you folks get?

King Burgundy
Sep 17, 2003

I am the Burgundy King,
I can do anything!

I'm thinking I'll do TMM for my pick.

King Burgundy
Sep 17, 2003

I am the Burgundy King,
I can do anything!

Hmmm, so at 3 of 11 on the liberal policies, if no one is lying. So down to a 27% chance per draw on a liberal policy.

King Burgundy
Sep 17, 2003

I am the Burgundy King,
I can do anything!

Think we are still waiting on posts/comments from a couple people, but ready to nominate whenever.

King Burgundy
Sep 17, 2003

I am the Burgundy King,
I can do anything!

TMMadman posted:

I would investigate kumba because he, a) didn't have a choice and b) will be President at what is likely to be a very dangerous time.

I'm assuming that a fascist policy will get enacted today simple because there are only 2 liberal cards currently available out of 11. Now maybe KB gets lucky and draws one of those two cards, but I'm not counting on it.

Then we have to go through CPig, DB and RF. If all three are able to act, we'll very likely be either at 4 fascist/2 liberal or 3 liberal/3 fascist. The deck would resuffle when RF picks his 3 cards in this case, so there is a chance we could get to 2 fascist/4 liberal but I'm not sure I'd place any bets on it.

So as you can see kumba should definitely be a potential investigation target, although maybe it could wait until the 2nd investigation if you wanted to look at one of Cpig/DB/RF first.

Aren't there 3 left? Should only be 2 left if Pmush was lying about how many liberal policies she drew. If she drew 2, and discarded one, then there would only be 2 left.

King Burgundy
Sep 17, 2003

I am the Burgundy King,
I can do anything!

TMMadman posted:

16 cards to start: 11 fascist, 5 liberal.
1 liberal card drawn D1
2 liberal cards drawn D2

That means only 2 left for now.

Per the rules link, 10 player game doesn't have any special rebalancing:

"The 11 Fascist Policy tiles and the 6 Liberal Policy tiles are shuffled into a single Policy deck."

https://secrethitler.io/rules

So that's 17 to start, 6 liberal. 3 left. Unless Pmush or CapnAndy lied and got one more liberal policy then stated.

King Burgundy
Sep 17, 2003

I am the Burgundy King,
I can do anything!

TMMadman posted:

I would investigate kumba because he, a) didn't have a choice and b) will be President at what is likely to be a very dangerous time.

I'm assuming that a fascist policy will get enacted today simple because there are only 2 liberal cards currently available out of 11. Now maybe KB gets lucky and draws one of those two cards, but I'm not counting on it.

Then we have to go through CPig, DB and RF. If all three are able to act, we'll very likely be either at 4 fascist/2 liberal or 3 liberal/3 fascist. The deck would resuffle when RF picks his 3 cards in this case, so there is a chance we could get to 2 fascist/4 liberal but I'm not sure I'd place any bets on it.

So as you can see kumba should definitely be a potential investigation target, although maybe it could wait until the 2nd investigation if you wanted to look at one of Cpig/DB/RF first.

So this was my initial thoughts, I'll post them even though I've had second thoughts while typing this up:

On investigations, I'd lean strongly towards Cpig if I got one today. That would let us know if we should just no confidence his presidency, since he is next. Although mitigating factor would be if I drew all fascist policies. Then the numbers in the deck would change to 3 of 8, so odds are good again, so might be worth skipping Pig on the investigation and doing DB instead.

This seems like basic strategy to me, so someone can fill me in if there is something more advanced we should be doing. Like searching Pmush or CapnAndy to make sure they aren't Hitler.

---

Now that I've thought about it more, I can totally see Kumba as a better choice. Kumba, AA, TMM are some of the choices that will matter most since it will come after we are possibly forced to enact fascist policies so the choices will matter far more. I can still see the logic of doing Pmush or CapnAndy as well to confirm they aren't Hitler for safe nominations.

We can talk more when it eventually happens and we see the actual game state.

King Burgundy
Sep 17, 2003

I am the Burgundy King,
I can do anything!

Putting the cart before the horse slightly. Still a decent chance I'll draw a liberal policy.

King Burgundy
Sep 17, 2003

I am the Burgundy King,
I can do anything!

We ready for nomination? Or more chat?

King Burgundy
Sep 17, 2003

I am the Burgundy King,
I can do anything!

kumba posted:

still thinking TMM? sounds fine to me

Yeah

King Burgundy
Sep 17, 2003

I am the Burgundy King,
I can do anything!

##nominate TMM

King Burgundy
Sep 17, 2003

I am the Burgundy King,
I can do anything!

##vote yes

King Burgundy
Sep 17, 2003

I am the Burgundy King,
I can do anything!

Byers2142 posted:

Do you trust KB and CPig that much? Everything hinges on the investigations being accurate and their truthfulness in cards discarded/passed. The more you put this plan forward, the less I like it. Everything is based on giving kumba power.

FWIW, if this were mafia, I would absolutely not trust Pig. And since he's not really participating, I'm inclined to want to investigate him more if given the opportunity.

Having said that, our ordering isn't ideal. I like pmush's investigate the investigator plan, but it works best when there are three people involved for maximum clearage. If I investigated Pig, it doesn't get us as much if he just investigates me back.

Anyway, possibly all moot. So we can revisit this if I really don't draw any liberal policies.

King Burgundy
Sep 17, 2003

I am the Burgundy King,
I can do anything!

TMMadman posted:

Part of it is because kumba wasn't given a choice by CapnAndy. I realize it was probably the best move

BTW, is this the best move in general? Like if somehow I get two liberal cards on this draw, should I offer them both to TMM?

King Burgundy
Sep 17, 2003

I am the Burgundy King,
I can do anything!

CapnAndy posted:

I'm deeply confused by whatever the hell TMM is advocating and beginning to think that he's doing it on purpose, to smokescreen everyone into going along with... whatever this is. I still do not understand what is wrong with the plan of "the first time a government is forced to pass a fascist law, the president investigates the next president in the cycle", and I do not understand what the plan is in its place.

I agree with Byers. Whatever the hell is going on right now, I don't like it.

##vote no

I think TMM's stuff makes sense if we aren't talking about Kumba specifically, but a group of people around him. I agree the focus on Kumba specifically is a bit odd.

Having said that, if you guys ruin my time at bat over this, I'm going to be disgruntled.

I wish these objections had come up earlier.

---

On the next in line stuff, I'm not sure what you don't get. Did you read Pmush's plan about having three people involved? If so, what don't you understand about it?

King Burgundy
Sep 17, 2003

I am the Burgundy King,
I can do anything!

Keep in mind, unless you mistrust me as well, blocking this election is kind of silly. I'll be able to announce the three cards I drew. And I would be the one choosing the investigation target if he passes a fascist policy. So even if it turns out TMM is a bad guy, the only potential bad thing that happens is if I pass him a liberal policy and he doesn't use it. But that's a positive at this point too, right? We out him as bad and still only have one fascist policy enacted. Would be great to find out more about him right now when he's chancellor than later when it is more dangerous and he would be president.

King Burgundy
Sep 17, 2003

I am the Burgundy King,
I can do anything!

I drew three fascist cards.

If no one lied, this means Pig's chances of drawing a liberal card are now pretty drat good.

King Burgundy
Sep 17, 2003

I am the Burgundy King,
I can do anything!

As such, it might actually be fine to investigate Pig, he may not get the next investigation, so the three people involved plan would probably work. Alternately, if we want to place an investigation on a lynch pin president, aka someone who might be the nominee when we could be at 3 fascist policies, that would place the investigation a bit deeper, like the in grouping of RF, Kumba, AA, TMM, depending on how the cards go.

I can see reasons to investigate any of the next few presidents. Tell me what you guys want to see happen. I want to hear from everyone.

From those of you who have played, I'm particularly interested in any anecdotes you have on good/bad investigations.

King Burgundy
Sep 17, 2003

I am the Burgundy King,
I can do anything!

Looks like the cucu strategy on the rules link would have me investigating DB this time, so that he could pick me as a chancellor if I investigate him as liberal.

Just as an FYI.

I can see the value on that one too.

King Burgundy
Sep 17, 2003

I am the Burgundy King,
I can do anything!

Anomalous Amalgam posted:

I agree with the second half, that the investigation should be used when 3 fascist policies have likely been passed.

I want to look back at some things, but is there an official policy regarding this?

Clarify what you are asking?

King Burgundy
Sep 17, 2003

I am the Burgundy King,
I can do anything!

Anomalous Amalgam posted:

I know it had been discussed about re-reading the game and I thought Dancer had implemented something to regulate it.

Ok, you can quote anything from the current day and read back only 2 days.

King Burgundy
Sep 17, 2003

I am the Burgundy King,
I can do anything!

TMMadman posted:

I still think kumba should be the target but I'm fine with anyone in the near future.

DB would be a good choice because he will see the last three cards before the reshuffle (two cards will remain unseen) so that could be nice.

If we investigate DB then we should probably also go with the strategy that says CPig should use DB as his chancellor. So we would start limiting government at that point since it would go Cpig/DB followed by DB/KB. At that point we should be either at 4 liberal/1 fascist or 3 liberal/2 fascist. I think if we ended up with 2 liberal/3 fascist then somebody in those three is probably a lying fascist. Although I guess maybe it could be someone from the first two governments.

Yeah. It is too early to say for sure, until we see more cards, but I'm a bit weirded out by Byers/Andy at this point. I could be mistaken, but I could have sworn they were both experienced players, and the strategies I've been reading up on while I'm waiting for people to post haven't jived with the way they played so far. For example, we had the talk about if you get two liberal policies as the pres, should you pass them both on, and this link: https://secrethitler.tartanllama.xyz/#strategy-overview seems to say that you should almost always pass the choice on to the chancellor, unless you are behind and it is near end game.

Also, their choice to vote no on the government at that point seems super fishy to me, since I know it would have prevented a liberal presidency at a time when there was not a serious danger from having a possibly bad TMM as chancellor.

Having said that, if anyone lied in those first two administrations at this point, it would have been to obscure additional liberal discards, which seems statistically unlikely. In Byers case it isn't even possible unless Pmush was also bad. And in Andy's case it would mean he had gotten 3 liberal policies in his draw, which is kinda crazy or that again, Kumba was also bad.

I'm putting this out there because it feels like no one is really doing this stuff at this point, and we probably should be?

King Burgundy
Sep 17, 2003

I am the Burgundy King,
I can do anything!

Chain investigations are apparently bad at this player count. So we want to avoid me investigating whoever we think is going to get the next fascist policy.

ie., Me investigating DB, and Pig investigating me? Good. 3 people involved.
But me investigating DB, and DB investigating me? Bad. Only 2 of us.

So 3 liberal policies still in the deck, theoretically, means probably Pig's admin won't be passing a fascist policy, so he's a safe investigation from that aspect. DB will also have good odds for liberal policy if Pig's admin only gets 1 liberal card. So maybe it's fine? But it gets dicier if Pig draws 2 liberal policies or if someone is lying and there aren't 3 liberal policies left in the deck.

It's not entirely in our hands if we pick someone that close, like Pig or DB. This would actually lend itself well to investigating someone further out like RF, Kumba or AA to make sure it doesn't happen and still allow the second investigator to target me.

I'm willing to be swayed still in just about any direction by people in this thread rather than random internet strategies at this point though. I've read all I'm going to read on the game for now, so just waiting for more posting. I'll probably give this almost the full 48 hours so that hopefully we get some posting happening.

King Burgundy
Sep 17, 2003

I am the Burgundy King,
I can do anything!

Yeah, but obviously if someone is an experienced player they probably would have come to those opinions on their own right? Unless they just suck I guess.

King Burgundy
Sep 17, 2003

I am the Burgundy King,
I can do anything!

CapnAndy posted:

Okay but here's the thing: I disagree with what the internet hint file said to do. So I did a different idea, and then said why.

Gee, sure seems like a lot of other stuff you could comment on right now. Why so quiet?

King Burgundy
Sep 17, 2003

I am the Burgundy King,
I can do anything!

CapnAndy posted:

My internet was out for a couple of hours, I've weighed in on who I want to investigate and why (and I'm happy with the direction that's going), and I had nothing else to say.

also I am busy processing optimized algorithms beep boop insert punch card for next vote

But you wanted to investigate Cpig and felt very strongly about that and my read of the room is that is probably not the investigation that is happening?

So to confirm, what direction do you think it's going right now, that you are happy with?

King Burgundy
Sep 17, 2003

I am the Burgundy King,
I can do anything!

For what it's worth, what I've taken from this conversation thus far is I should probably be investigating RF. He seems like the closest to a consensus choice between the various possibilities.

If I was submitting right now, that is who it would be. Seems to hit the sweet spot of nearish president, potential lynch pin president, probably won't be the 2nd person with the investigation.

So feel free to continue to post and sway me off that choice if you have a stronger candidate.

King Burgundy
Sep 17, 2003

I am the Burgundy King,
I can do anything!

TMMadman posted:

Actually doesn't RF have the highest chance to get the 2nd investigation? Remember, RF will be the first person to use a reshuffled deck unless we purposely go through 2 chaos government pulls after the CPig government but before the next one.

Right now there are 3 liberal cards out of 8 which means that CPig has something like an 80% chance of getting one of them. And then if he only picks one liberal card then DB would have 2 liberal cards left out of 5.

I mean, if that actually happens, then we are in pretty good shape with 4 liberal policies passed and only 1 fascist and we have RF investigate someone that isn't me so it isn't a chain investigation.

More likely, either we've already had fascists in power and the card count isn't what we think it is, or they will be in power over the next two goes and even if they get liberal cards, the policies might not pass.

I think it is one of the safer bets personally after this discussion. And it covers the extreme scenario of the next two passes being fascist.

King Burgundy
Sep 17, 2003

I am the Burgundy King,
I can do anything!

TMMadman posted:

I understand both of these things but fascists are also sort of forced to play more liberally early in the game or they can give themselves away, so I feel like early information is probably true even if it's from a fascist.

I think we have to assume there is at least 1 liberal card left in the deck as I would assume the chances of PMush/CapnAndy/KB all being fascist AND all pulling an extra liberal card are astronomical. If the count is wrong, then it's probably one of Pmush or KB. I mean I guess CapnAndy could have picked 3 liberal cards but I think that's unlikely.

Yeah. I think Cap is a fascist, but it would be super weird for him to have gotten 3 liberal cards. From my perspective if the count is wrong it would most likely fall on Pmush, but Pmush seems completely reasonable to me this game so far. So I'm pretty sure Pig's administration will get a liberal card. And if he just gets one, then DB's admin will also get one based on odds.

But just because they will be getting the cards, doesn't mean their admins will pass those.

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King Burgundy
Sep 17, 2003

I am the Burgundy King,
I can do anything!

Went through today to see if everyone has commented on RF as a pick:

CapitalistPig - Good
Dick Bastardly - Prefers Kumba but fine with RF
Retro Futurist - Good
kumba - Good
Anomalous Amalgam - Prefers DB but fine with RF
TMMadman - Prefers Kumba
Byers2142 - Can be inferred that fine with RF("Push out past the next two presidents")
PMush Perfect - last comment was alright with DB
CapnAndy - Good
King Burgundy - Good

---

So pretty much good to go, but I'll give a bit more time in case Pmush or Byers have more to say.

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