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  • Locked thread
Dancer
May 23, 2011

AnonymousNarcotics posted:

I'm gonna reread and post more

Poke. Please make sure to fulfill this promise before hammer.

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Captain Foo
May 11, 2004

we vibin'
we slidin'
we breathin'
we dyin'

Dick Bastardly posted:

If you really want to know where my head was at, I read breadcrumbs (that you didn't intentionally leave apparently) that you are a cop (in the traditional sense, "town" cop) and that you were sure I was scum. Thus I responded with my own breadcrumbs in kind to tell you why I'm not what you probably thought I was.

Anyway, I haven't re-read a whole lot yet, but I would like to know what motivated capt foo to vote AN (not that I agree or disagree)

b-minus1
Jul 24, 2008

She's a maniac, maniac
on the floor
And she's dancing like she's never danced before

Hal Incandenza posted:

But would scum really want to be put in a pool of three potential scums?

would like you to clarify what you mean here

Asiina
Apr 26, 2011

No going back
Grimey Drawer
If I were scum, I would not put any of my scumbros in the heist. Whatever bonus town might get from a heist succeeding is definitely better than casting suspicion on my teammates.

If the heists fail I don't think it will be because of the members of the heist.

Dick Bastardly
Aug 22, 2012

Muttley is SKYNET!!!

OK, so why not acknowledge my cryptic claim only meant for the one who would understand it without outing them?

Monathin
Sep 1, 2011

?????????
?

Dick Bastardly posted:

Can confirm. I'm Alan.

I am going to assume, based on my own role, that your Miller claim is due to suspicions because you have "friends" out-of-state you can call on to help you?

Dick Bastardly
Aug 22, 2012

Muttley is SKYNET!!!
Phone posting @ work so going back to quote is making me want to cry

Dick Bastardly
Aug 22, 2012

Muttley is SKYNET!!!

Monathin posted:

I am going to assume, based on my own role, that your Miller claim is due to suspicions because you have "friends" out-of-state you can call on to help you?

This is what my PM says in so many words yes

Dick Bastardly
Aug 22, 2012

Muttley is SKYNET!!!
Go back and read my early breadcrumbs you jerks

Monathin
Sep 1, 2011

?????????
?

The Breadcrumb:

Dick Bastardly posted:

however I do have connections outside LA that can aid us in our heisty endeavors

yep, checks out.

I'll not be voting Dicky B tonight.

Captain Foo
May 11, 2004

we vibin'
we slidin'
we breathin'
we dyin'

Asiina posted:

If I were scum, I would not put any of my scumbros in the heist. Whatever bonus town might get from a heist succeeding is definitely better than casting suspicion on my teammates.

If the heists fail I don't think it will be because of the members of the heist.

"if i were scum" posting isn't great

AnonymousNarcotics
Aug 6, 2012

we will go far into the sea
you will take me
onto your back
never look back
never look back
I was in class. Didn't get a chance to read yet. I'm honestly not super engaged with the game at this point but I'm gonna try.

Hal Incandenza
Feb 12, 2004

b-minus1 posted:

would like you to clarify what you mean here

Sure if I were scum in a heist and I had a way to make the heist fail, I would be hesitant to do so because we would then know that one of the people on the heist was scum and especially in the early heists sooner or later you may well be in a position as the only unflipped player from that heist and be trapped. So I would be likely to let the heist succeed.

Unless there is something about heists I don't get and scum can influence them even if they aren't on them

Hal Incandenza
Feb 12, 2004

Asiina posted:

If I were scum, I would not put any of my scumbros in the heist. Whatever bonus town might get from a heist succeeding is definitely better than casting suspicion on my teammates.

If the heists fail I don't think it will be because of the members of the heist.

See this implies there is something I don't know... maybe I need to pay more attention!

Dancer
May 23, 2011

Hal Incandenza posted:

Sure if I were scum in a heist and I had a way to make the heist fail, I would be hesitant to do so because we would then know that one of the people on the heist was scum and especially in the early heists sooner or later you may well be in a position as the only unflipped player from that heist and be trapped. So I would be likely to let the heist succeed.

Unless there is something about heists I don't get and scum can influence them even if they aren't on them

There's at least one wrong assumption in your post: Even with a full town team, heists have 25% chance to fail (given the information we have).

Hal Incandenza
Feb 12, 2004

Captain Foo posted:

"if i were scum" posting isn't great

I mean if someone asks a question about what scum would do, how else can you answer? Kind of a worthless point in the context of what Asiina said

Hal Incandenza
Feb 12, 2004

Dancer posted:

There's at least one wrong assumption in your post: Even with a full town team, heists have 25% chance to fail (given the information we have).

See I admit it, I need to pay more attention! Forget my whole point then! Still it would make you more suspicious even if it isn't a smoking gun

Monathin
Sep 1, 2011

?????????
?

Hal Incandenza posted:

See I admit it, I need to pay more attention! Forget my whole point then! Still it would make you more suspicious even if it isn't a smoking gun

It would, yes. Which is why I think DickyB isn't scum because I outted myself immediately as a liability.

Hal Incandenza
Feb 12, 2004

Dancer posted:

Looking back, I am liking this case on Hal. And, looking at my own interactions with Hal:

Trying to get people to vote for me, followed by:

quiet back-pedalling so as to not be responsible if I'm bussed and flip town.
Also:

Dissuading people from investigating him.


OK, so first off "trying to get people to vote me" is, like, called mafia man...

I don't see how calling you overly dismissive is backpedaling at all, quite the opposite.

And I don't see how saying "don't worry I get investigated all the time in games" is in any way dissuading people from investigating me whatsoever.

##vote Dancer call it an OMGUS but that case seems completely faked to me

Hal Incandenza
Feb 12, 2004

Monathin posted:

It would, yes. Which is why I think DickyB isn't scum because I outted myself immediately as a liability.

I agree, I was referring to RF when I said that, but with this and your confirmation of his breadcrumb and the success of the heist leads me to believe you are both town

Hal Incandenza
Feb 12, 2004

Also don't feel very good about Captain Foo he seems to be trying to discredit people for spurious reasons more than just poke and question them to probe for more info

Hal Incandenza
Feb 12, 2004

I've been up for most of the last 72 hours working and flying and probably going to crash soon but I hope to wake up before deadline

AnonymousNarcotics
Aug 6, 2012

we will go far into the sea
you will take me
onto your back
never look back
never look back
I still think asiina is scum and I stand by my earlier case on her. Obviously I was wrong about her being scum buddies with Keane but that doesn't mean that she is not scum.

Re: chances of heist succeeding. It says each scum on the heist makes it 25% less likely to succeed (or something) so I just don't believe asiina saying if she were scum she wouldn't pick scumbuds to be on the heist. Not that that is saying anything about her alignment but I just don't think it's true,or at least her stated motivation makes no sense.

More to come.

AnonymousNarcotics
Aug 6, 2012

we will go far into the sea
you will take me
onto your back
never look back
never look back
As far as I understand what the OP says, the heist has a smaller chance of success for each additional scum that is on it. Unless the scum knows something I don't, there's no other way to affect the heist.

b-minus1
Jul 24, 2008

She's a maniac, maniac
on the floor
And she's dancing like she's never danced before

Monathin posted:

It would, yes. Which is why I think DickyB isn't scum because I outted myself immediately as a liability.

Agree with this. Not sure why dickyb wouldn’t claim miller from the start thuough

AnonymousNarcotics
Aug 6, 2012

we will go far into the sea
you will take me
onto your back
never look back
never look back
Not relevant but dick b and Hal are always getting mixed up in my brain. Ok back to the reread

Moatillata
Dec 13, 2006

Maintain.

Dancer posted:

Gut thoughts: I don't like how much Dick B was looking into fluff. We've been given hard numbers for how the heist works, I am very tempted to assume that in that case, fluff is entirely irrelevant. I also think that (at least for now, before a meta has settled) both scum and town heist leaders have an incentive to pick town for their team, so I'm leaning town on the people picked (yes, this is self-serving; I can't help genuinely having this opinion).

Miller claim is obviously also shady, though I am inclined to believe that the idea of someone being detected as scum when they're not fits this theme rather well.

I also think that, personally, if I were miller and I thought someone was breadcrumbing that they had copped me, I would immediately claim miller. This way I do what I can to defend against the scum result without revealing/rolefishing the person who got the result.

Preliminary ##vote Dicky B , though I will re-assess before deadline.

Not a fan of this

He spends the post defending dicky b and then throws down a vote on him

Simultaneously posturing up for an :effort: lynch at day end while preemptively setting himself for the mislynch


Also now look at this:

Dancer posted:

Looking back, I am liking this case on Hal. And, looking at my own interactions with Hal:

Trying to get people to vote for me, followed by:

quiet back-pedalling so as to not be responsible if I'm bussed and flip town.
Also:

Dissuading people from investigating him.


Later on:

Trying to buddy up to three different townies (2 confirmed). Revealing that "mistake" adds nothing to the conversation, other than attempting to gain my trust.

Looking back, I find this case stronger than the DB case.

##vote Hal

HE immediately posts this Hal case after Mona comes out with a good defense of Dicky B

This reads to me like someone floating the first vote and testing the water and then switching when he realizes it's not gonna fly

##vote dancer

I also have a thought gotta reread something

Moatillata
Dec 13, 2006

Maintain.
nevermind mind, it doesnt make sense and the RF Dicky B narrative is consistent.

Right now in my thought palace I have cleared:

Dicky B
RF
Myself


Im gonna put Monathin as likely town

That leaves the possible :mrapig:s as

Dancer
Anarc
Bminus
Hal
Cap Foo


I think we should limit votes to these individuals for great success

Moatillata
Dec 13, 2006

Maintain.

Hal Incandenza posted:

OK, so first off "trying to get people to vote me" is, like, called mafia man...

I don't see how calling you overly dismissive is backpedaling at all, quite the opposite.

And I don't see how saying "don't worry I get investigated all the time in games" is in any way dissuading people from investigating me whatsoever.

##vote Dancer call it an OMGUS but that case seems completely faked to me

This and the entire interaction WRT Dancer-Hal feels like scum hedging their bets and going after each other

I think I would vote either of them atm

Dancer
May 23, 2011

Moatillata posted:

Not a fan of this

He spends the post defending dicky b and then throws down a vote on him

Simultaneously posturing up for an :effort: lynch at day end while preemptively setting himself for the mislynch


Also now look at this:


HE immediately posts this Hal case after Mona comes out with a good defense of Dicky B

This reads to me like someone floating the first vote and testing the water and then switching when he realizes it's not gonna fly

##vote dancer

I also have a thought gotta reread something

There were 6 minutes between Mona's post and mine. Do you really think I could've assembled the Hal post in 6 minutes? I hadn't read Mona's post when I made mine.

Moatillata
Dec 13, 2006

Maintain.
Also, I will be around for deadline tonight because I have shipped my entire family in a comically large wooden box to Timbuktu.

Moatillata
Dec 13, 2006

Maintain.

Dancer posted:

There were 6 minutes between Mona's post and mine. Do you really think I could've assembled the Hal post in 6 minutes? I hadn't read Mona's post when I made mine.

This is an incredibly weird line of argument

from you posting style I assumed you had it locked and loaded and ready to go in case DB was looking bad as vote.

Dancer
May 23, 2011

Moatillata posted:

This is an incredibly weird line of argument

from you posting style I assumed you had it locked and loaded and ready to go in case DB was looking bad as vote.

How is this weird?

How many times have you made a post, particularly a large one, and have the thread move under you with one or even multiple new posts? Can you not fathom that maybe that's what happened to someone else?

Moatillata
Dec 13, 2006

Maintain.

Dancer posted:

How is this weird?

How many times have you made a post, particularly a large one, and have the thread move under you with one or even multiple new posts? Can you not fathom that maybe that's what happened to someone else?

What is your intent with that dicky b vote? I don't normally spend all this time defending someone and then dropping a vote on them

Moatillata
Dec 13, 2006

Maintain.

Dancer posted:

How is this weird?

How many times have you made a post, particularly a large one, and have the thread move under you with one or even multiple new posts? Can you not fathom that maybe that's what happened to someone else?

Also here are you are admitting to voting dicky b because the flow of the thread was going that way and then changed your vote when the flow changed.

b-minus1
Jul 24, 2008

She's a maniac, maniac
on the floor
And she's dancing like she's never danced before

Moatillata posted:

nevermind mind, it doesnt make sense and the RF Dicky B narrative is consistent.

Right now in my thought palace I have cleared:

Dicky B
RF
Myself


Im gonna put Monathin as likely town

That leaves the possible :mrapig:s as

Dancer
Anarc
Bminus
Hal
Cap Foo


I think we should limit votes to these individuals for great success

What about asiina?

Dancer
May 23, 2011

Moatillata posted:

What is your intent with that dicky b vote? I don't normally spend all this time defending someone and then dropping a vote on them

Neither do I. I don't consider my post a defence of Dick. I was assembling positive and negative points. At the end of my post I found the negative points persuasive enough.

Moatillata posted:

Also here are you are admitting to voting dicky b because the flow of the thread was going that way and then changed your vote when the flow changed.

You are contorting and mischaracterising my statement so that you can view it in the worst possible way. My point is, I was making a post, and other posts had happened in the period of time in which I was making the post. I didn't say I had read the other posts. I actually actively said the exact opposite in my preceding post.

Asiina
Apr 26, 2011

No going back
Grimey Drawer
Moat you forgot to put my in on your list, you can add me to the obviously town section.

Moatillata posted:

Also here are you are admitting to voting dicky b because the flow of the thread was going that way and then changed your vote when the flow changed.

This is absolute nonsense though and not what he was saying at all.

Dancer
May 23, 2011

Moatillata posted:

Also here are you are admitting to voting dicky b because the flow of the thread was going that way and then changed your vote when the flow changed.

Like, it baffles me how you can read my words in there and see an "admission" that I changed anything in the content of my post.

Also, at first you had said that I had the post already prepared. Now you're saying that it wasn't already prepared, now you seem to be saying I reacted to a post that had happened while I was making it?

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Asiina
Apr 26, 2011

No going back
Grimey Drawer

AnonymousNarcotics posted:

I still think asiina is scum and I stand by my earlier case on her. Obviously I was wrong about her being scum buddies with Keane but that doesn't mean that she is not scum.

Re: chances of heist succeeding. It says each scum on the heist makes it 25% less likely to succeed (or something) so I just don't believe asiina saying if she were scum she wouldn't pick scumbuds to be on the heist. Not that that is saying anything about her alignment but I just don't think it's true,or at least her stated motivation makes no sense.

More to come.

You thought I was scum because you thought Keane was scum, but apparently your opinion hasn't changed? Almost like it's not actually based on anything.

And how exactly does my explanation of heists make no sense? The more scum that are on it, the more likely it is to fail. Putting your scumbuddies on a team is putting them in danger if the heist fails by shining a big spotlight on them.

Essentially I'm expecting that unless RNG fails us or the heist leader is killed, that the heists are likely going to all succeed.

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