2018 AFC West 2.0: I can win this one later if no one else wants to.

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Sports Argument Stadium > The Football Funhouse > 2018 AFC West 2.0: I can win this one later if no one else wants to.

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FUCKFACE MORON: Apr 23, 2010; by sebmojo

Go Broncos

E: More accurate odds

FUCKFACE MORON fucked around with this message at 18:41 on Aug 1, 2018

# ? Aug 1, 2018 15:40

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# ? Apr 24, 2024 20:17

Grittybeard: Mar 29, 2010; Bad, very bad!

We had consensus about the thread title

# ? Aug 1, 2018 15:44

FUCKFACE MORON: Apr 23, 2010; by sebmojo

lol yeah i just realized that :shobon:

mod please change thread title to "I can win this one later if no one else wants to"

# ? Aug 1, 2018 15:45

Croatoan: Jun 24, 2005; I am inevitable.
ROBBLE GROBBLE

Off to a great start much like our division.

# ? Aug 1, 2018 16:32

FUCKFACE MORON: Apr 23, 2010; by sebmojo

Thanks Athanatos

# ? Aug 1, 2018 18:08

kiimo: Jul 24, 2003

lol those dogshit odds

# ? Aug 1, 2018 18:11

a neat cape: Feb 22, 2007; Aw hunny, these came out GREAT!

kiimo posted:

lol those dogshit odds

Chargers should be the betting favorite just based on offseason stability and the quarterback but lol what on earth KC

# ? Aug 1, 2018 18:15

No Butt Stuff: Jun 10, 2004

a neat cape posted:

Chargers should be the betting favorite just based on offseason stability and the quarterback but lol what on earth KC

I've been watching 1v1 matchups of our corners and receivers and holy poo poo our corners are baaaaad.

# ? Aug 1, 2018 18:21

Pron on VHS: Nov 14, 2005; Blood Clots
Sweat Dries
Bones Heal
Suck it Up and Keep Wrestling

a neat cape posted:

Chargers should be the betting favorite just based on offseason stability and the quarterback but lol what on earth KC

It makes sense that KC has long odds to win the division.

- new QB with no NFL experience
- a bad defense reloading with like 9 new starters, 2-3 of whom will likely be rookies
- as last year's division winners they play a ton of good teams this season and have a pretty brutal schedule

Also Bovada has the following odds which make more sense, although I'd put Denver ahead of Oakland:

LAC +155
KC +260
OAK +325
DEN +400

# ? Aug 1, 2018 18:28

kiimo: Jul 24, 2003

Tyreek made Talib look like an undrafted rookie free agent

# ? Aug 1, 2018 18:28

FUCKFACE MORON: Apr 23, 2010; by sebmojo

I know Marcus Peters has his issues but those KC odds would be better if they didn't trade him away for peanuts

E: Beaten by SHOAH

# ? Aug 1, 2018 18:28

No Butt Stuff: Jun 10, 2004

cavallingus posted:

I know Marcus Peters has his issues but those KC odds would be better if they didn't trade him away for peanuts

racist rear end clark hunt has to appeal to his ole miss college buddies

e: southern methodist, whatever.

# ? Aug 1, 2018 18:29

kiimo: Jul 24, 2003

With Peters they had one of the worst defenses in the league but they still won the division. I'd argue the offense and the defense is significantly improved but they're an odds on favorite to come in last? No way.

# ? Aug 1, 2018 18:29

Pron on VHS: Nov 14, 2005; Blood Clots
Sweat Dries
Bones Heal
Suck it Up and Keep Wrestling

kiimo posted:

With Peters they had one of the worst defenses in the league but they still won the division. I'd argue the offense and the defense is significantly improved but they're an odds on favorite to come in last? No way.

We really have no idea if the offense and defense are significantly improved. Offense depends entirely on the new guy, defense could be anything considering the drastic makeover they just did. The Broncos and Chargers have also gotten much, much better from last year.

# ? Aug 1, 2018 18:32

kiimo: Jul 24, 2003

So we have no idea if the Chiefs improved but we know the Chargers and Broncos did

# ? Aug 1, 2018 18:33

FUCKFACE MORON: Apr 23, 2010; by sebmojo

Case Keenum alone improved the Broncos tenfold lol

# ? Aug 1, 2018 18:35

a neat cape: Feb 22, 2007; Aw hunny, these came out GREAT!

SHOAH NUFF posted:

Also Bovada has the following odds which make more sense, although I'd put Denver ahead of Oakland:

LAC +155
KC +260
OAK +325
DEN +400

These seem more realistic

kiimo posted:

So we have no idea if the Chiefs improved but we know the Chargers and Broncos did

I know you guys are in love with Mahomes but he's still an unknown and Alex Smith was a really good, stable quarterback.

# ? Aug 1, 2018 18:36

Pron on VHS: Nov 14, 2005; Blood Clots
Sweat Dries
Bones Heal
Suck it Up and Keep Wrestling

Yeah, pretty much.

The Broncos massively upgraded their QB, and got the best pass rusher in the draft.

The Chargers upgraded their OL, got the best safety in the draft.

The Chiefs main changes are Mahomes, who is an unknown but who I think will do well, and completely revamped their defense. Continuity is a big thing in the NFL for quality play and a defense full of new FAs/trades and rookies isn't going to be good right away.

I'm not saying anything crazy or pessimistic, you are just a wild homer

# ? Aug 1, 2018 18:38

Strobe: Jun 30, 2014; GW BRAINWORMS CREW

I will believe the Chargers can win the division when their losing steak against the Chiefs ends and not a minute sooner.

# ? Aug 1, 2018 18:41

kiimo: Jul 24, 2003

Actually I'm a big time pessimist but not enough to ignore what I'm seeing in camp.

Here's a super long fantasy opinion on Mahomes. Consider it the last time I'll argue about this until we see another game.

quote:

This has been coming down the pipeline since April 27, 2017.

That was when the Chiefs traded up to 10th overall to draft Patrick Mahomes out of Texas Tech, mortgaging their short-term future and putting Alex Smith on notice. As you know by now, Smith responded with the best year of his career but still got moved to Washington, opening up the starting job for Mahomes.

Almost all of this was expected.

Now it's Mahomes who is expected to sit as the leader of a Kansas City offense with arguably the best receiving trio in the NFL in speedsters Tyreek Hill and Sammy Watkins along with tight end Travis Kelce.

He'll benefit from one of the sagest playcallers to grace an NFL sideline in Andy Reid. He'll have a not-too-bad offensive line protecting him and running back Kareem Hunt should take plenty of pressure off of him (and be a good receiver, too). As Kelce told CBS Sports last week, the Chiefs' offense has the potential to be "unstoppable."

It would be a pretty big faceplant for Mahomes to botch this.

Our first pro glimpse at Mahomes came in an inconsequential Week 17 game last season. Playing with backups (including three backup offensive linemen) against the Broncos' starting defense in Denver, Mahomes completed 65 percent of his passes for 284 yards (8.1 yards per attempt) with 10 rush yards and an interception. He was sacked twice, had a touchdown scramble called back by replay review and had three drops from his receivers. Despite a couple of slightly-off passes and one really bad overthrow, he looked better than your typical rookie quarterback.

Way better.

There are some startling (in a good way!) similarities from this game to what Mahomes did in his last two seasons as Texas Tech's starter. In those final 25 games he completed 64.6 percent of his passes for 8.3 yards per attempt � numbers right in line with his Week 17 debut and good indications of what we might expect moving forward.

What we haven't seen, however, is the three-to-one touchdown-to-interception ratio and the 22 rushing touchdowns in 25 games that Mahomes had in college. There are a lot of numbers to be uncorked by the Chiefs. That's his upside � the big scores through the air and on the ground. That drives his popularity in Fantasy more than a fancy completion percentage or passing yards average.

Obviously there's a difference between Texas Tech and Kansas City, but we should all feel encouraged by Mahomes' first game. It was also Reid's first time calling plays for Mahomes � Reid admitted he called the game, not then-offensive coordinator Matt Nagy. Week 17 was basically an early dress rehearsal for both of them in front of the league's fourth-best pass defense.

"He gets to that Denver game and he can function at a high level," Reid told the Kansas City Star last January. "And it's not just calling the plays, and lining up and doing it. It's a matter of the protections against that defense, moving people around."

The belief is that the Chiefs will adopt more spread concepts familiar to Mahomes into their offense, a perfect decision since it'll put major pressure on defenses given their receiving talent. The speed involved will be dizzying to defensive coordinators and Kelce is a matchup problem no matter who he lines up across from. All Mahomes will have to do is find the right matchup to exploit and avoid the pass rush to make plays. That's a lot easier to type than it is to actually do on a football field, but it's not hard to see Mahomes doing it, particularly since he did a lot of it at Denver, right down to the almost-rushing score.

The fit is amazing, but this isn't the first time a first-year starting quarterback has been hyped up before a season started. Once upon a time, guys like Ryan Leaf, JaMarcus Russell, Kyle Boller and, more recently, Johnny Manziel were hailed as Fantasy heroes without much experience.

They all struggled.

Mahomes is also cursed with the worst pass defense matchups according to our independent schedule analysis. That comes with the territory when you take on a first-place schedule that includes games at the Steelers and Patriots, versus the Rams in Mexico, at the Seahawks (in Week 16) and two matchups each with the Chargers and Broncos (both were top-5 versus the pass last season and are stronger this year).

The opponents and the inexperience are definitely concerns. Where you'll find him on Draft Day eases the pain. Early ADP has Mahomes going after 100th overall, a ridiculously cheap price to pay for a quarterback with his upside.

There will be some let-down weeks. Those are inevitable. Mahomes' upside is very attractive, but it's not quite up there with the likes of Deshaun Watson. It might be right behind him, though, and Mahomes won't get picked as soon as Watson will.
So long as Mahomes' ADP stays manageable, he must be picked as a low-risk, high-reward Fantasy player. There aren't too many of those around No. 100 overall. In fact, you should plan on taking him at your last selection before No. 100 overall. Do it whether you need a quarterback or not � if there's one quarterback who has the upside to bring back a good player in trade, it would be this one.

Efficiency might work against Mahomes, that's just the way things go in high-volume downfield passing attacks like this one could be.

But his potential to end 2018 as one of the 10 top-grossing Fantasy quarterbacks makes him a must-draft from Round 8 right through to Round 9 ... or 10 if you're really lucky.
Quote:
Patrick Mahomes: Season-Winning Upside, Flier Price

Personally, I love starting my QB corps with an established floor, like the always under-appreciated Philip Rivers. He�s consistently ranked and drafted outside the top 100 players, and you know you�re getting at least 4,200+ yards and 25-30 TDs.

But this is just the floor play. While Rivers won�t lose you a title, he certainly isn�t going to win you one alone, either.

But 2018�s Wentz, Watson, or Alex Smith is bound to emerge. A later round QB will be a title-winner for many, and I am supremely confident this will be Patrick Mahomes (QB � KC).

Mahomes is currently falling to 120 and beyond in early mock drafts, and is rated the QB18 according to the ECR. He�s currently my 90th overall and QB8, ahead of Ben Roethlisberger (QB � PIT), Matthew Stafford (QB � DET), and even Russell Wilson (QB � SEA). As we did last time with Saquon Barkley (RB � NYG), let�s use the RSJ Fantasy Stock Formula to reveal why this is a complete joke, and why Mahomes� brings season-changing upside at this afterthought price.

Talent (25/30)

Strengths:

A cannon for his right-arm, Mahomes can sling the ball all over the field and possesses top-five raw arm strength in the league. There�s not a throw he can�t deliver.

This is doubly dangerous considering Mahomes is very mobile in and out of the pocket, giving him the escapability to extend plays and buy his explosive cast of weapons even more time to streak down the field.

Moreso, Mahomes loses minimal velocity while on the move and/or forced to throw from different angles, and uses this to crank balls through tight windows and �throw� wide receivers open.

He�s confident and competitive, creating a fearlessness and swagger that commands respect.

Flashed all these traits in a ballsy road win versus Denver despite playing with nearly no starting weapons.

Weaknesses:

On the negative side, Mahomes� big-arm and assertiveness can get him into trouble at times; he has a penchant for forcing the �big play,� often resulting in poor decisions and turnovers.
He entered the league �raw� in terms of pocket passing, and has to prove he�s capable of finding his rhythm within Andy Reid�s timing-based West Coast scheme.
Ideally, a year of riding the pine and learning under both Reid � arguably the greatest QB mentor in the game right now �and Alex Smith (QB � WAS) � the consummate professional in his approach and ball security on the field � will quell these more mental-based concerns. The physical tools are all here for a special kind of dominance.

Usage (23/25)

Reid has ranked in the top-half of the league in pass-attempts in well over half of his seasons calling plays. Moreover, he�ll maximize Mahomes� mobility as he did with Donovan McNabb and even Alex Smith on rollouts, RPOs, and designed QB runs. Even when his team is up, Reid is notorious for keeping his foot on the passing-game gas pedal � even to a fault. Mahomes should log 35+ attempts most week, alongside five-to-eight weekly carries.

Surrounding Talent (15/15)

If healthy, the Chiefs will roll out arguably the most explosive attack in the entire league. They�ll have Tyreek Hill (WR � KC) and Sammy Watkins (WR � KC) on the outside, Travis Kelce (TE � KC) terrorizing the seams, and Kareem Hunt (RB � KC) rumbling out of the backfield. Even before adding Watkins, KC�s pass-catchers led the NFL with an average of nearly four yards of separation on their receptions, and Watkins, for all his durability and consistency woes, remains one of the top burners in the league.

Mahomes has the weaponry to attack every layer of the field, and his arm strength and mobility will ensure he does just that. Expect this offense to be a complete juggernaut, with Mahomes as the centerpiece engine (and dominant fantasy producer).

Coaching Scheme (10/10)

Unlike his late-game play calling, Andy Reid�s�s offensive genius cannot be questioned. In 19 years of calling plays, Reid�s ranked in the top-half of scoring 15 times, including 11 top-10 finishes. The passing game has often been his offensive backbone, with Reid�s West Coast offense recording top-10 passing yards and TDs nine different times. He�s regarded as one of the league�s top QB developers.

His West Coast scheme features high-percentage, horizontal-base route concepts that ideally maximize YAC opportunities and minimize turnovers. Yet, Alex Smith (QB � WAS) also led the NFL in deep yardage and passer rating in 2018, suggesting Reid is embracing more vertical concepts as well � perfect for Mahomes cannon arm. Reid mixes in a variety of formations and packages to keep defenses constantly on their toes and is now equipped with his most explosive weapons cabinet ever.

Risk (6/10)

Despite the high grades in nearly every Stock Score Category, Mahomes isn�t without risk. He entered the league �raw,� and while he appropriately rode the bench almost all season, only time will tell if this was enough refinement. There�s a chance his 2017 flashes of greatness will remain just flashes, and Mahomes could struggle for consistency, leaving this offense a powder keg that�s never truly ignited.

However, I expect the exact opposite. He�s so naturally gifted, surrounded by incredible talent, and under the highest quality tutelage, I expect Mahomes only to continue ascending. This incredible situation, combined with his leg points, will facilitate enough weekly yards and scores to buoy out any multi-pick duds. He�ll be a top-12 QB performer far more often than not.

Upside (10/10)

Mahomes� situation is eerily similar to fellow sophomore signal-caller Deshaun Watson (QB � HOU), who was a fantasy cheat code in his 2017 appearances. Both possess incredible physical gifts (Mahomes has even more arm talent), both have the mobility to buy time for their explosive surrounding casts, and both will be in pass-happy attacks that should put up oodles of points. Mahomes should have multiple contests above 25-30 FPs, and should rarely dip below 19-20 considering the talent around him, and the added �leg points� he�ll gain as a runner.

Total Stock Score: 89/100, B+

Bottom Line:

With a cannon arm, a stellar, deep cast to sling to, and a historically dominant play-caller and QB guru all on his side, Mahomes has the ingredients to be a genuine season-winner in 2018. This is especially true considering this limitless ceiling comes at a 10th+ round price. Alex Smith (QB � WAS) was a top-five QB in this setup last season (and Mahomes has far more arm talent) and now has Sammy Watkins (WR � KC) at his disposal.

This offense is unstoppable on paper, and Mahomes will be the engine for this juggernaut. Even if he hits a few speed bumps in his development and decision making, there�s enough talent all-around to keep the floor and ceiling both very high each week.

Ceiling Projection: 4,300 pass yds, 400 RuYds, 35 Tot. TDs (five rushing), 12 INTs
Floor Projection: 3,900 pass yards, 250 RuYds, 22 Tot. TDs (two rushing), 16 INTs

Summary:

Bargain hunting is crucial at all stages of the draft but is especially essential in executing the necessary �Wait on a QB� strategy during your later rounds. This season, no QB (or really any fantasy prospect) widely drafted beyond Round 10 matches the upside of Patrick Mahomes (QB � KC).

There�s a legitimate �cheat code� ceiling here, and the bargain-bin price tag allows you to load up on RBs, WRs, or edge-gaining TEs for nine-to-10 straight picks. Balance Mahomes out with a Philip Rivers (QB � LAC) floor and a last-round Mitch Trubisky (QB � CHI) flier, and you�ll be equipped with at least one top-five QB for three bottom-barrel picks. More likely than not, that�ll wind up Mahomes.

Nicholas Traicoff is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Nicholas, check out his archive and site Roto Street Journal or follow him @RotoStreetWolf.

# ? Aug 1, 2018 18:41

a neat cape: Feb 22, 2007; Aw hunny, these came out GREAT!

Strobe posted:

I will believe the Chargers can win the division when their losing steak against the Chiefs ends and not a minute sooner.

They don't actually have to beat KC to win the division!

# ? Aug 1, 2018 18:43

Grittybeard: Mar 29, 2010; Bad, very bad!

SHOAH NUFF posted:

I'm not saying anything crazy or pessimistic, you are just a wild homer

He's not here, but he has a lot of friends in this city. I swear Brett Favre is Mahomes floor according to people around here.

I think he'll at least be ok, but man people are already writing his HoF acceptance speech*

*-I reserve the right to write one of these myself ~4 games into the season if he looks awesome.

kiimo posted:

Actually I'm a big time pessimist but not enough to ignore what I'm seeing in camp.

Come on, you started all of this waaaaay before camp started.

# ? Aug 1, 2018 18:43

Strobe: Jun 30, 2014; GW BRAINWORMS CREW

a neat cape posted:

They don't actually have to beat KC to win the division!

And if that happens I'll deny their title to my dying breath. :colbert:

# ? Aug 1, 2018 18:48

kiimo: Jul 24, 2003

Well now I'm not sure if being a Chiefs homer and being a Mahomo are the same thing because I'd argue I've been pessimistic on the Chiefs outside of Mahomes for years.

But yeah I'm all in on Mahomes and have been basically since I watched OU vs Texas Tech.

# ? Aug 1, 2018 18:49

a neat cape: Feb 22, 2007; Aw hunny, these came out GREAT!

I mean it's fine to be all in on Mahomes, you just cant expect Vegas to feel the same way after 0 meaningful games

# ? Aug 1, 2018 18:53

FUCKFACE MORON: Apr 23, 2010; by sebmojo

lol "mahomo"

# ? Aug 1, 2018 18:56

Black Sunshine: Apr 4, 2004; LEFT 4 DEAD IS A LOT LIKE FOOTBALL - I JERK OFF TO BOTH

kiimo posted:

Actually I'm a big time pessimist but not enough to ignore what I'm seeing in camp.

Here's a super long fantasy opinion on Mahomes. Consider it the last time I'll argue about this until we see another game.

I remember writing a big rear end post about how Randy Moss was going to have a tremendous impact on every single part of the Raiders game. LaMont Jordan will tear it up since D can't stack the box and a double teamed Moss will free up Jerry Porter to kill in single coverage and he'll significantly affect field position for our Special Teams and Defense and blah blah blah.

Spent almost $200 on a sick Moss jersey too!

We went 4-12

You just never know what the hell is going to happen.

LOL year #2 was worse with the legendary Bed n Breakfast offense

Black Sunshine fucked around with this message at 19:12 on Aug 1, 2018

# ? Aug 1, 2018 19:10

Blitz of 404 Error: Sep 19, 2007; Joe Biden is a top 15 president

Post your rookie gifs

https://twitter.com/MandM7924/status/1024337282046689280

# ? Aug 1, 2018 21:41

warcrimes: Jul 6, 2013; I don't know what's it called, I just know the sound it makes when it takes a J4G's life.

Arden Key is legit.

# ? Aug 1, 2018 22:22

Vincent Van Goatse: Nov 8, 2006; Enjoy every sandwich.; Smellrose

The name Los Angeles Chargers makes my skin crawl.

# ? Aug 1, 2018 22:30

a neat cape: Feb 22, 2007; Aw hunny, these came out GREAT!

Vincent Van Goatse posted:

The name Los Angeles Chargers makes my skin crawl.

They're the San Diego Chargers who play in Los Angeles

# ? Aug 1, 2018 22:41

Durandal1707: Oct 11, 2013

I think the Chiefs probably finish 9-7/10-6 ish. Mahomes has little meaningful experience but Reid, for all of his faults, is one of the best coaches going at knowing how to mold QBs. Even if he's just league average, the Chiefs' offense is really stacked between Hill, Kelce, Watkins and Hunt. Their o-line isn't top-tier but it's above average overall.

Their defense is gonna be pretty awful though. They needed to blow it up but they were going to do that, they should've just gone all-in with it and gotten rid of Sutton as well. Trading Peters away probably wasn't a great move either. But on the whole I really don't think they're gonna be a whole lot different at the end of the day as they were last season, record wise. Of course, how they're gonna get there is the interesting part of it...

# ? Aug 1, 2018 23:52

Strobe: Jun 30, 2014; GW BRAINWORMS CREW

I think if that gut we drafted to stop the run inside actually does then we'll have a much improved defense. Being completely incapable of defending the run is what officially ended the season, after all.

# ? Aug 2, 2018 00:13

kiimo: Jul 24, 2003

Xavier Williams will help more than Nnadi. The Chiefs will have seven new starters on the defense, replacing old and slow guys, bringing back Eric Berry, Houston is healthy again.

I don't think there is any way the run defense is as bad as last year. That said, the schedule is much much tougher. I'd agree with 9 or 10 wins.

# ? Aug 2, 2018 00:25

a neat cape: Feb 22, 2007; Aw hunny, these came out GREAT!

And I think the Chargers will be right around 10-11 wins.

I think we can both agree that Denver and Oakland are gonna spoil at least one of us

# ? Aug 2, 2018 00:32

Afterbirth Aftermath: Aug 29, 2002

I don't know about Keenum being a "massive" upgrade, but the big questions for Denver are can Roby handle the promotion and can the line play together. I think Denver can take the division if both of those are "yes"

# ? Aug 2, 2018 00:51

Afterbirth Aftermath: Aug 29, 2002

Also:
https://twitter.com/sherdogdotcom/status/1024705297246433280

# ? Aug 2, 2018 01:01

3 DONG HORSE: May 22, 2008; I'd like to thank Satan for everything he's done for this organization

Afterbirth Aftermath posted:

I don't know about Keenum being a "massive" upgrade,

Have you seen Brock or Trevor???

# ? Aug 2, 2018 02:16

a neat cape: Feb 22, 2007; Aw hunny, these came out GREAT!

Can someone post the gifs of all the picks Mahomes is throwing in camp

I hear it's a lot

# ? Aug 2, 2018 04:14

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# ? Apr 24, 2024 20:17

kiimo: Jul 24, 2003

3 today 7 total. Here�s an article about it.

# ? Aug 2, 2018 04:38

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Sports Argument Stadium > The Football Funhouse > 2018 AFC West 2.0: I can win this one later if no one else wants to.

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