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Speculating about people's job security in the normal world is kinda gross and intrusive. Luckily, this is the NFL, where everybody hates their head coach and wants him fired. So let's speculate away! Welcome to the 2018 edition of the hot seat thread, presented by yours truly. I'm keeping the basic formula as previous years, with only a few slight tweaks. I've replaced the "zero danger" category with "cool" because the previous name was too definitive, and there are a lot of job situations this year that could drastically change from week-to-week. And it's now just "first-year coaches" instead of "first-year grace period," which again felt too cute and not fluid enough. Let's just run down the categories quickly for first-time readers. COOL: Just as the name implies, the coach has nice and pat job security for now, whether through longtime success or just being new enough to not piss anyone off yet. Again, this could change over the season, especially for the second- and third-year guys who slowly get exposed. But for now, there's no reason for them to worry. MILD: The coach isn't in immediate danger, but there is growing discontent among fans and players, and things can quickly go south if the losses pile up. On the flipside, a nice winning streak will cool their seats in a hurry. As you can see below, there are a lot of coaches who can go either way. MODERATE: It's put-up-or-shut time for the coach. Maybe he got dealt a bad hand from the previous regime, or maybe the rebuild has gone longer than expected, or maybe he had too many injuries. But now's the time to start delivering results, because he's running out of excuses. SPICY HOT: Better start updating your resume! There won't be many people in this category to start the season, but rest assured the list will grow once we get to December and lame ducks are just playing out the string. BACK FOR 2019 Bill Belichick, New England Patriots Sean McDermott, Buffalo Bills Mike Tomlin, Pittsburgh Steelers John Harbaugh, Baltimore Ravens Bill O'Brien, Houston Texans Frank Reich, Indianapolis Colts Doug Marrone, Jacksonville Jaguars Mike Vrabel, Tennessee Titans Andy Reid, Kansas City Chiefs Anthony Lynn, Los Angeles Chargers Jon Gruden, Oakland Raiders Jason Garrett, Dallas Cowboys Jay Gruden, Washington Doug Pederson, Philadelphia Eagles Pat Shurmur, New York Giants Mike Zimmer, Minnesota Vikings Matt Nagy, Chicago Bears Matt Patricia, Detroit Lions Sean Payton, New Orleans Saints Dan Quinn, Atlanta Falcons Ron Rivera, Carolina Panthers Sean McVay, Los Angeles Rams Pete Carroll, Seattle Seahawks Kyle Shanahan, San Francisco 49ers  Hue Jackson, Cleveland Browns (interim coach: Gregg Williams) Mike McCarthy, Green Bay Packers (interim coach: Joe Philbin) Dirk Koetter, Tampa Bay Buccaneers Todd Bowles, New York Jets Vance Joseph, Denver Broncos Adam Gase, Miami Dolphins Marvin Lewis, Cincinnati Bengals Steve Wilks, Arizona Cardinals NEW HEAD COACHES Green Bay Packers: Matt LaFleur (Titans OC) Arizona Cardinals: Kliff Kingsbury (Texas Tech HC) Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Bruce Arians Denver Broncos: Vic Fangio (Bears DC) Cleveland Browns: Freddie Kitchens (Browns OC) New York Jets: Adam Gase (Dolphins HC) Benne fucked around with this message at 03:02 on Jan 10, 2019 |
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Aug 27, 2018 04:45
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Dirk Koetter = 2018 coach of the year
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Aug 27, 2018 15:31
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Actually the Jets went 5-11 
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Aug 27, 2018 15:42
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I agree with the thought to put Mike McCarthy in Mild. Last season they cleaned house in a big way and got rid of his OC and DC. I don't understand exactly how he survived the massacre but I think this year is really big for him in terms of his future there. If the team under performs, what's the benefit of keeping him around? To be honest I'm surprised they didn't make a clean break in the first place when they fired everyone else.
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Aug 27, 2018 18:11
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I look forward to Sean McDermott Jauroning up the place for another 3+ years on the strength of backing into the playoffs and pleas for "stability".
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Aug 27, 2018 18:56
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Hue should have his own ranking. Called "how the gently caress?" He's Marvin Lewis with less success. Gase should be moderate at least. Getting rid of every good player the franchise had to continue going all in on a converted college WR is insane.
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Aug 27, 2018 19:49
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At this point I'm convinced the Browns have been tanking for better draft picks.
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Aug 28, 2018 04:58
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If the Broncos have a poor start I'll be shocked if they don't fire Joseph. It'd probably take something like 3-6-into-the-bye-week to sway Elway in a vacuum, but this spoiled-rear end fanbase will be calling for his head at 1-2.
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Aug 28, 2018 05:02
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Benne posted:FIRST-YEAR COACHES I just want to say that this is the first season in recent memory that I've had zero benefit of doubt for any of these coaches, and I've been following the league seriously since 2001. I'm extremely, extremely underwhelmed by the 2018 crop and expect them all to fail.
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Aug 28, 2018 05:06
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Play posted:I agree with the thought to put Mike McCarthy in Mild. Last season they cleaned house in a big way and got rid of his OC and DC. I don't understand exactly how he survived the massacre but I think this year is really big for him in terms of his future there. If the team under performs, what's the benefit of keeping him around? To be honest I'm surprised they didn't make a clean break in the first place when they fired everyone else. Fat Mike survived almost solely on what he's been able to do with Favre and Rodgers. If not for that he'd have been long gone and the Packers would've been languishing with a Patriots castoff. I'm not convinced McCarthy is the answer but I do recognize he's better than many of the alternatives -- and at the same time I have zero faith that he can really elevate the team's second string.
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Aug 28, 2018 05:08
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SKULL.GIF posted:I just want to say that this is the first season in recent memory that I've had zero benefit of doubt for any of these coaches, and I've been following the league seriously since 2001. I'm extremely, extremely underwhelmed by the 2018 crop and expect them all to fail. Eh, I don't mind this year's group because at least they're fresh faces (Gruden and Shurmur are the only retreads), and if they fail then they'll probably fail in interesting ways. I'd rather teams take a chance on a new guy than hand Chan Gailey his 23rd job or whatever.
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Aug 28, 2018 05:37
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SKULL.GIF posted:I just want to say that this is the first season in recent memory that I've had zero benefit of doubt for any of these coaches, and I've been following the league seriously since 2001. I'm extremely, extremely underwhelmed by the 2018 crop and expect them all to fail.
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Aug 28, 2018 05:37
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I like wilks so far but the cards have shown absolutely none of their cards on offense. David Johnson has played like 4 snaps and the only qb success so far is that none of them got killed yet. Peterson looks like a MVP candidate in the new defensive scheme though.
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Aug 28, 2018 05:48
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marvin is in the "cool" section, or arguably the "first year coaches" section because he decided to leave but was convinced to stay
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Aug 28, 2018 05:49
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Benne posted:Todd Bowles, New York Jets -- Getting a rookie franchise QB seemingly buys Bowles more time, but well, ask John Fox how that worked out last year. The Jets went 5-11 and that was considered overachieving, which tells you a lot about where expectations were. This team has a lot of young talent, but it's fair to question how far Bowles can take them, or even if he's the right guy. I get the feeling we'll learn a lot more about him in 2018. I think Bowles is going to survive the year. It's the young talent - I think he's going to be able to pull the "Just wait until next year now that all the talent's seasoned!" card to stay alive unless the Jets are truly disastrous. And considering they're facing the Bills and Dolphins twice each this year, I can see the Jets within spitting distance of .500.
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Aug 28, 2018 06:53
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SKULL.GIF posted:I just want to say that this is the first season in recent memory that I've had zero benefit of doubt for any of these coaches, and I've been following the league seriously since 2001. I'm extremely, extremely underwhelmed by the 2018 crop and expect them all to fail. Gonna go out on a limb here (but not confident enough to Toxx). I reckon either Matt Patricia or Gruden wont last the year
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Aug 28, 2018 09:41
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CyberPingu posted:Gonna go out on a limb here (but not confident enough to Toxx). I reckon either Matt Patricia or Gruden wont last the year Patricia, on the other hand, look way out of his depth in their pre season game I saw this weekend. He completely mis-managed the clock and seemingly had no control over what his offense was doing when down with under a minute to go in the half and his first team offense driving down the field.
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Aug 28, 2018 12:08
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Out of the coaches that aren't 1-31 or in their 80th year I think McDermott's the one who's rear end is going to heat up the fastest. The team totally sold Allen as the new Jim Kelly to its fanbase, but is going into this season with an overrated defense that isn't even considered that good, a loving disaster at o-line, and a fatass wide receiver and octogenarian, criminal stud of a RB as their only real offensive assets. The Bills are going to be a goddamned disaster.
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Aug 28, 2018 12:55
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CyberPingu posted:Gonna go out on a limb here (but not confident enough to Toxx). I reckon either Matt Patricia or Gruden wont last the year I can't even imagine how much of a disaster Gruden would have to be not to last the year, and TFF's collective predictions are already so dismal. (Also, I always love this thread, thanks as always OP.)
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Aug 28, 2018 13:18
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Tempest_56 posted:I think Bowles is going to survive the year. It's the young talent - I think he's going to be able to pull the "Just wait until next year now that all the talent's seasoned!" card to stay alive unless the Jets are truly disastrous. And considering they're facing the Bills and Dolphins twice each this year, I can see the Jets within spitting distance of .500. Bowles is actually a decent coach, with his two major flaws being 1) 4th quarter clock management and 2) the inability to put together a decent special teams unit. I would have no problem with him staying if the Jets go 7-9 or something like that. FWIW, I think even if the Jets finish 6-10, but are competitive in most every game, and Darnold looks good, he is staying.
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Aug 28, 2018 13:50
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I look forward to the fanbase turning on Pederson when Wentz regresses and gets hurt again and the offensive playcalling goes away with Reich. A warm seat by the end of the season.
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Aug 28, 2018 21:42
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there's 100 million reasons that gruden will survive his first year
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Aug 28, 2018 22:54
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The most likely outcome with re: to Adam Gase is that he ends up being forced to replace his defensive coordinator- I tend to expect the offense is going to be good, and that the inevitable +/- 8-8 season is going to be on the back of the defense. The pressure will probably be on to find an experience defensive coordinator to handle that side of the ball. He straight up pulled an Andy Reid with regard to the Wide-9. These executive offensive coordinator type head coaches think that they're going to score a shitload of points, and that all the defense is going to need to do is defend a lead if the opponent looks like they can offer a shootout. They don't have to hash out a complimentary game plan with the defense every week, they're not going to get stuck having to move heaven and earth in an off-season trying to find a specific key defensive lynchpin...just spend $35m+ on the defensive line and then from there you just make it work. You've basically reverse-engineered a 4-3 into being able to defend the run like a 3-4 front, and in doing so you've basically given away any flexibility. Just run the loving 3-4, that way you can do other stuff like uhh run split safeties coverage outside of 3rd and long, spill runners off tackle, etc.
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Aug 30, 2018 02:50
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Lance of Llanwyln posted:I look forward to Sean McDermott Jauroning up the place for another 3+ years on the strength of backing into the playoffs and pleas for "stability". I disagree. McDermott is no Dick Jauron. Dick Jauron couldn't motivate a dog to eat steak. If he's smart he needs to hire Kyle Williams as like an assistant coach or something. That would probably buy him like 3 years right there.
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Aug 30, 2018 03:07
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CyberPingu posted:Gonna go out on a limb here (but not confident enough to Toxx). I reckon either Matt Patricia or Gruden wont last the year Patricia's probably safe at least one year since he's got a long-standing relationship with the GM from when they were both with the Patriots, and the schedule is rough enough that he should be able to justify a first-year mulligan so long as it's not a complete disaster.
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Aug 30, 2018 04:27
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Catfish Noodlin posted:You've basically reverse-engineered a 4-3 into being able to defend the run like a 3-4 front, and in doing so you've basically given away any flexibility. Just run the loving 3-4, that way you can do other stuff like uhh run split safeties coverage outside of 3rd and long, spill runners off tackle, etc. Why did you guys trade for Robert Quinn if you are running pretty much a 3-4? Why did the Giants trade for Ogletree if they are moving to the 3-4?
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Aug 30, 2018 14:56
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DariusLikewise posted:Why did you guys trade for Robert Quinn if you are running pretty much a 3-4? Why did the Giants trade for Ogletree if they are moving to the 3-4? It's like a 3-4 in a broad, philosophical sense. A traditional 4-3 Over front is going to generally try and "spill" the ball-carrier- philosophically they want to clog up the interior and try and push runningbacks off-tackle, where their linebackers are in pursuit chasing the run, and the safety is going to have the widest gap and work to turn the runningback back towards the pursuit. 3-4 fronts often(but not always) are going to use "force" based run fits- philosophically they want to set a hard edge with their outside linebackers, and have these bigger players in the widest gaps to funnel any outside run plays back inside. The Wide-9 is similar in this respect, and uses their defensive ends playing wider than normal to funnel outside runs back towards the middle of the field, freeing the defensive tackles to attack hard up-field and the linebackers to come down-hill rather than to chase sideline to sideline. Jim Schwartz and Jim Washburn "invented" the Wide-9 with the Titans in the early 2000's as basically a way to defend the Peyton Manning era Colts, who killed teams with Edgerrin James outside zones and play actions off of that. Everyone in the league was basically running a 4-3 Over at that point, and teams would get slaughtered if they weren't defending the Colts if they made any mistakes with cutback lanes and pursuit. The Patriots didn't have the problem because they were like one of two teams in the league at the time running a 3-4 front, and they had these wide force defenders like Willie McGinest who could crush the outside zone(and from that, the play-action). So Schwartz and Washburn widened their ends and had them play as force players, and then developed a whole defensive scheme out of it. Long story short, Robert Quinn works in this defense because he's best as a wide defender. He'd also be a wide defender in Wade Phillips 3-4, but it's quite possible that Quinn is one of those guys who is really a highly practiced, muscle-memory guy who are markedly worse when you take them away from what they're good at. Some guys *need* the 3-point stance, some guys *need* to be left or right side only, and Quinn might need both of those things. Or he's broke down in general, we'll see. Hamhandler fucked around with this message at 19:24 on Aug 30, 2018 |
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Aug 30, 2018 16:12
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Catfish Noodlin posted:It's like a 3-4 in a broad, philosophical sense. Do we have a nuts and bolts thread that dives deeper into these topics? I want to know more.
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Aug 30, 2018 23:32
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I feel like Kyle Shanahan should be in the Mild category for no other reason than Because Jed York.
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Aug 30, 2018 23:47
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Vincent Van Goatse posted:I feel like Kyle Shanahan should be in the Mild category for no other reason than Because Jed York. If the niners go 6-10 this year with all the hype does his seat move to spicey next year? How many losing seasons will York give him I guess is my question
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Aug 30, 2018 23:53
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EmbryoSteve posted:If the niners go 6-10 this year with all the hype does his seat move to spicey next year? It's Jed York. Who the gently caress even knows?
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Aug 31, 2018 00:18
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There are 3 constants in life. 1. Death 2. Taxes 3. Marvin Lewis coaching the Bengals
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Aug 31, 2018 01:52
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cavallingus posted:I think Nagy will surprise people He kind of already did, what with the relevations...
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Aug 31, 2018 02:19
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Nystral posted:Do we have a nuts and bolts thread that dives deeper into these topics? I want to know more. I've thought about trying to get one started, maybe I'll put one up this weekend and see if there's any interest in like a group Ask/Tell
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Aug 31, 2018 03:35
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Fat Mike being cool is eh. I think he's on a prove it deal right now.
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Aug 31, 2018 04:58
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Detheros posted:There are 3 constants in life The Bengals are going to actually kick rear end this year. I'm a big believer in the Bengals.
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Aug 31, 2018 05:33
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I think Fat Mike is toast if they don't win a playoff game this year.
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Aug 31, 2018 12:06
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Hot take, Belichick walks after this season regardless of SB win or not.
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Aug 31, 2018 12:06
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Catfish Noodlin posted:It's like a 3-4 in a broad, philosophical sense. This really interesting actually, thank you. I think Robert Quinn will be best with his hand in the dirt so to speak, but the Rams pretty much just had him on the field for obvious passing situations last year and his only job was to just run at the QB. He said he didn't like the transition to OLB either and is looking forward to playing end again.
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Aug 31, 2018 14:55
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Jiminy Christmas! Shoes! posted:I think Fat Mike is toast if they don't win a playoff game this year. He's toast if they don't make it. He's potentially toast if they don't make it past the 1st round. If they make it to the 2nd round, either by way of bye or 1st round win, he's safe.
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Aug 31, 2018 15:18
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