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comedyblissoption posted:the media and democratic politicians made a really big propaganda push for neera Crosby B. Alfred posted:It's the media. That's wild. I knew it was getting coverage but I had no idea it was being treated like a breaking news event. That adds a lot of context to all the people extremely pissed about the nom falling through on Twitter, etc.
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Mar 3, 2021 18:53
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This is still the dumbest market: AOC to run in the district numbered 14 New York is redistricting, and this resolves no if her district gets renumbered. You can currently bet on this at 55%, which seems very cheap as New York is losing a congressional seat and the districts have to shake up. This is especially true with the higher numbers, as I believe they start with the same center and count upward. The rules for this market were almost certainly a mistake in drafting because the New Zealanders behind PredictIt forgot about the whole redistricting thing and over-specified when what they meant to ask was "will AOC run for congress?" Other dumb (but long-term) markets that I'm already all-in on: Will the minimum wage be $15 by end of 2021? Even if passed, the law would almost certainly phase it in, thus resolving this No. Currently at 96% Will Biden resign in his first term? Currently at 81% No due to MAGA money. It's 4 years out but pays better than most investments Which of these ten G20 leaders will leave office next? Biden currently listed ahead of a bunch of other politicians with actual elections coming up before his. This seems to be similar wishful thinking MAGA money that he'll just resign or die immediately. While you're here you can also bet people like Putin won't leave office next either.
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Mar 4, 2021 03:26
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Vox Nihili posted:That's wild. I knew it was getting coverage but I had no idea it was being treated like a breaking news event. That adds a lot of context to all the people extremely pissed about the nom falling through on Twitter, etc. As far as I know, she's the first and only to not make it which probably has a lot to do with it. And a super easy target for Republicans. Gucci Loafers has issued a correction as of 04:57 on Mar 4, 2021 |
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Mar 4, 2021 04:52
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ShadowHawk posted:This is still the dumbest market: May you expand upon this? Because, this smells like free money.
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Mar 4, 2021 04:57
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ShadowHawk posted:Which of these ten G20 leaders will leave office next? Out of curiosity, how do the "not a deadpool" rules apply to markets like this. The rules don't specify in this market and just indicate that it'll count whoever vacates first. Just pointing out that if death counts, then a little of that movement might be people betting on Biden's health or the rumors that Putin is sick.
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Mar 4, 2021 05:00
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Crosby B. Alfred posted:As far as I know, she's the first and only to not make it which probably has a lot to do with it. And a super easy target for Republicans. Yeah part of the confirmation process is a sort of public hazing of the new administration. They always block at least one of the nominees. Easy to get a scalp when a bunch of your colleagues already have a personal beef with the person.
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Mar 4, 2021 05:03
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Crosby B. Alfred posted:May you expand upon this? Because, this smells like free money.  Here's the previous one:  It looks like AOC's current district (14) used to be mostly 7, with parts of 5, 12, and 14. In both cases you can see they start counting with 1 in the far east, and then it's a bit arbitrary how they count up from there (sorta right to left, sorta top to bottom, but inconsistent). Which makes me think the odds of the number changing are much higher than 55% like the current price implies.
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Mar 4, 2021 06:36
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Also I'm already all-in on Dem 2024 Presidential Nominee because the prices are just...off Namely, current odds for Biden seeking renomination are at 35%, which is crazy low for an incumbent. Similarly, you can buy Kamala Harris no at ~65%. It mostly seems to be fueled by various MAGA beliefs of Biden's imminent demise.
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Mar 4, 2021 11:30
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I'm taking some safe governor money like Phil Murphy remaining the Gov in NJ. I know NJ Dem Govs are historical fuckups but it'll take an out of nowhere big scandal to take him down after he did fairly decently during COVID and the stench of Chris Christie still lingers. Plus he's got Cuomo next door who probably won't get taken down by two bigger scandals. Dude is safe. It's currently at 90c. Terry McAuliffe winning the VA Dem Gov primary is only 87c atm.
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Mar 4, 2021 16:02
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Patience does not exist in this dojo.
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Mar 4, 2021 16:38
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OMB director is the most insane series of markets ughh
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Mar 4, 2021 19:43
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i say swears online posted:OMB director is the most insane series of markets ughh Hope you didn't buy Shalanda at 80c!
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Mar 4, 2021 19:48
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.81  sold almost immediately after in a panic lol, i'm on no now
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Mar 4, 2021 19:49
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got Shalanda NO at .24 and ditched half of it immediately because I had a bad feeling 
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Mar 4, 2021 20:16
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 I bought 125 Shalanda NOs at 30 cents last night, flipped them at 32 for fun money and almost bought a bunch of NOs at 30 again to hold overnight. I said no, self, don't just be a contrarian and bet on Biden ignoring the house letter and the pundits. Don't just bet on things you think would be funny. And here I am .
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Mar 5, 2021 01:34
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https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1367672496569352197?s=20 Hot take, I'm calling it. Cuomo is out by the end of the year. Get in boys.
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Mar 5, 2021 04:21
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Honestly I disagree. I think he's just going to run out the clock. If he wasn't going to resign before, why would he do it now? I don't think state officials resign because of scandals anymore. But honestly I'm just flipping shares at this point with this market.
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Mar 5, 2021 15:58
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Sounds like a bunch of aides are going down. Cuomo ain't going anywhere, he's a the lib Trump.
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Mar 6, 2021 21:51
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 Final hat count: 2x black 1x blue 1x piss
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Mar 7, 2021 05:47
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Vox Nihili posted:Final hat count: Final hat count: 0
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Mar 7, 2021 06:26
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Just checked my mail again and got an offer finally. It's titled "let's try this swag thing one more time" lol.
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Mar 7, 2021 08:31
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Baddog posted:Just checked my mail again and got an offer finally.
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Mar 7, 2021 09:56
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would I have received a tax form in the mail by now if I made enough gains in 2020?
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Mar 7, 2021 21:18
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Wrex Ruckus posted:would I have received a tax form in the mail by now if I made enough gains in 2020? They sent it electronically to the email account associated with my PI account. Make sure to check your inbox and probably junk folder as well. Email was titled: 1099MISC - Important Tax Documents Issued by PredicIt Inc
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Mar 8, 2021 00:23
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Vox Nihili posted:They sent it electronically to the email account associated with my PI account. Make sure to check your inbox and probably junk folder as well. never got one of those, I guess I didn't make number go up enough. thanks!
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Mar 8, 2021 00:41
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ShadowHawk posted:Are you on the daily predictit mailing list by chance? I unsubscribed from that, which might explain the schwag lack I am, yep!
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Mar 8, 2021 00:59
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bollig posted:Honestly I disagree. I think he's just going to run out the clock. If he wasn't going to resign before, why would he do it now? I don't think state officials resign because of scandals anymore. But honestly I'm just flipping shares at this point with this market. Don't get me wrong, I think there's a chance he could run out the clock but I think it's more likely at this point he's pressured out. Remember, half the reason why he was so popular was because the standard in 2020 was merely being better than Trump. That's a low bar. For the first time ever he's below 50% in public opinion polling. For the last few years, he's just been playing NYC Power Politics and has pissed off so many people and quickly losing allies. weekly font posted:Sounds like a bunch of aides are going down. Cuomo ain't going anywhere, he's a the lib Trump. A quite a few of his long time aides have resigned. I'd agree, he's the lib Trump.
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Mar 8, 2021 01:32
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i put my remaining bankroll that cuomo remains governor even though this is the opposite of what i want to happen
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Mar 10, 2021 03:01
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Crosby B. Alfred posted:Don't get me wrong, I think there's a chance he could run out the clock but I think it's more likely at this point he's pressured out. Remember, half the reason why he was so popular was because the standard in 2020 was merely being better than Trump. That's a low bar. that's what makes a market!
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Mar 10, 2021 10:53
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comedyblissoption posted:i put my remaining bankroll that cuomo remains governor even though this is the opposite of what i want to happen For a lot of people being an rear end in a top hat bully prick is a feature, not a bug. If there was a market for Cuomo being reelected in a landslide I would be tempted to put money in that. (opposite of what I want to happen)
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Mar 10, 2021 16:47
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Is GOP taking the house next year at 60 cents a bad buy? Feels like it's just at the point where it wouldn't make you anything if it closed in your favor.
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Mar 10, 2021 17:42
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comedyblissoption posted:i put my remaining bankroll that cuomo remains governor even though this is the opposite of what i want to happen every election or something like that, there's always a round of psychologists/economists saying that this is basically what you should do. Like if I were to put a shitload of money on Trump winning, well if he were to win, I'd have a bunch of money to temper my existential pain. WHereas if Trump lost you'd be very happy so you wouldn't care as much about the lost money
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Mar 10, 2021 18:02
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net work error posted:Is GOP taking the house next year at 60 cents a bad buy? Feels like it's just at the point where it wouldn't make you anything if it closed in your favor. Seems priced roughly appropriately give or take five or ten cents
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Mar 10, 2021 18:38
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bollig posted:every election or something like that, there's always a round of psychologists/economists saying that this is basically what you should do. Like if I were to put a shitload of money on Trump winning, well if he were to win, I'd have a bunch of money to temper my existential pain. WHereas if Trump lost you'd be very happy so you wouldn't care as much about the lost money
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Mar 10, 2021 18:51
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Made a few bucks off the panic in the Garland market after this morning's vote on Fudge. Could have done a lot better but I wasn't able to follow the vote in realtime. Good stuff.
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Mar 10, 2021 20:54
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https://twitter.com/emmagf/status/1370035835861614594?s=20
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Mar 11, 2021 16:51
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he;lp I have so much cuomo stays
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Mar 11, 2021 17:02
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i say swears online posted:he;lp I have so much cuomo stays 40 cents that Cuomo stays is a steal. Of course he stays. I love the markets where I can bet on the opposite of what I want to happen. Cuomo stays, I make money, Cuomo goes and the bullying creepy, corrupt turd goes. Win-win.
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Mar 11, 2021 17:50
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 HODL.
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Mar 11, 2021 18:06
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Zeta Taskforce posted:40 cents that Cuomo stays is a steal. Of course he stays. I love the markets where I can bet on the opposite of what I want to happen. Cuomo stays, I make money, Cuomo goes and the bullying creepy, corrupt turd goes. Win-win. he's such an rear end in a top hat that i think BDB demanding he resign is counterproductive i also paid .62 lol
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Mar 11, 2021 18:07
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