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MAGA Money currently has Trump at 6% to be the next Speaker of the House.
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Jan 3, 2022 14:12
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I had a few thousand shares of pelosi as next speaker at .04 but sold yesterday .06 for trump seems fair. It's not gonna dip much below that for the next ten months
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Jan 3, 2022 17:44
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Been moving over to the French election. My instincts tell me to buy Le Pen yes now, anticipating she gets into round 2 and then flip to No against her. I'm not that bold, though so I'm mostly loading up against the field.
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Jan 6, 2022 20:47
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ShadowHawk posted:MAGA Money getting in early Trading at .93 right now. Nearly .92.
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Jan 12, 2022 19:06
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Trump as GOP nominee for 2024 is at yes for 39¢, that seems like a good buy right?
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Jan 12, 2022 21:14
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It does but 2024 is so freaking far away... That's a tough call. On the other hand the "Who will win the 2024 US presidential election?" market is an easy steal but that's along time to sit on your money.
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Jan 13, 2022 00:12
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2024 is so far away, both to sit on money and because so much can happen between now and then. But there are so few opportunities right now. I've been sitting on cash for about 6 months, every once in a while I take peak and everything either seems fairly priced, or its obvious how something will turn out but then its priced at 97 cents with months to go.
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Jan 13, 2022 04:04
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net work error posted:Trump as GOP nominee for 2024 is at yes for 39¢, that seems like a good buy right? I'm much more confident on Biden for the Dems nominee. Although with this much time to burn you may way to wait for a health scare or something for an even better buying opportunity.
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Jan 13, 2022 04:19
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Also, Trump as the next Speaker for more than a penny is insane. Congress doesn't actually screw around with that sort of thing .
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Jan 13, 2022 04:20
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Vox Nihili posted:I'm much more confident on Biden for the Dems nominee. Although with this much time to burn you may way to wait for a health scare or something for an even better buying opportunity. Biden is gonna be about 200 years old then. Although it would be really weird for the sitting president not to run again.
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Jan 13, 2022 04:25
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Baddog posted:Biden is gonna be about 200 years old then. Although it would be really weird for the sitting president not to run again. The Democrats are extremely dutiful to their top players. If Biden wants the nomination (and every indication is that he does), then it's his. He would have to die outright or become severely disabled to open the door to anyone else beyond an entirely token challenge. That's certainly possible, but not super likely, just based on the implied actuarial probability. I would estimate maybe an 80% chance he's the Dem nom. Vox Nihili has issued a correction as of 04:36 on Jan 13, 2022 |
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Jan 13, 2022 04:33
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He'll be old but he'll be the nominee.
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Jan 13, 2022 04:34
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I'd buy biden at a dime for demnom
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Jan 13, 2022 04:39
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I don't like admitting this, but, but B1 yes seems like a solid bet. https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7646/How-much-spending-in-the-reconciliation-package-by-July-1
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Jan 21, 2022 16:10
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Vox Nihili posted:Also, Trump as the next Speaker for more than a penny is insane. Congress doesn't actually screw around with that sort of thing . he would show up the first day and never again lol
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Jan 21, 2022 17:58
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Elephanthead posted:he would show up the first day and never again lol  That is kind of what we were all hoping for at the beginning of 2017. I don't have money in the next house speaker market, its super unlikely it will be Trump, but the odds are not zero either. The Republican party is some combination of a cult and a circle jerk and folks like Gosar, Bobert, MGT, Madison Cawthorn, Gomert and Gaetz are running the show. Leader McCarthy is dumb enough to think he can put the buffoon front and center and think he can wield power in the background.
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Jan 21, 2022 18:36
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nah it's that trump would tell McCarthy what is going to happen and McCarthy would have to listen
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Jan 21, 2022 18:37
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i say swears online posted:nah it's that trump would tell McCarthy what is going to happen and McCarthy would have to listen All I know is that red and pink starbursts would be involved in some way
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Jan 21, 2022 19:54
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Zeta Taskforce posted:
I think the odds are about as close to zero as you can get without being literally zero The Republican party is much like the Democrats in that they're an old-fashioned clubhouse that caters to their most senior members.
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Jan 22, 2022 03:45
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Vox Nihili posted:The Republican party is much like the Democrats in that they're an old-fashioned clubhouse that caters to their most senior members. that's the magic; all trump has to do is say the words and then the price is .86 the congressional gop is entirely powerless in this market and that's what makes it fun
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Jan 22, 2022 08:30
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New Supreme Court Justice by 2023 market: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7649/Will-the-Senate-confirm-a-Supreme-Court-justice-in-2022 I'm of the opinion that Democrats are incompetent and will push it too late, get owned in the midterms, and not get a seat. Is that a dumb thought process?
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Jan 26, 2022 19:12
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What makes you think they are going to be so incompetent that it'll that them about a year to fumble a potential nominee? Now, I am not saying the process is going to be smooth but it's not like the midterms are tomorrow. There's plenty of time to make mistakes and still get someone in the SCOTUS. On another note, I still say Trump not getting indicted by Apr. 1 is priced way too low. Gucci Loafers has issued a correction as of 19:26 on Jan 26, 2022 |
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Jan 26, 2022 19:22
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net work error posted:New Supreme Court Justice by 2023 market: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7649/Will-the-Senate-confirm-a-Supreme-Court-justice-in-2022
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Jan 26, 2022 19:25
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I put a big 2 bux on no nominee by 2023 but will abstain from adding more into that market.
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Jan 26, 2022 19:28
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net work error posted:New Supreme Court Justice by 2023 market: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7649/Will-the-Senate-confirm-a-Supreme-Court-justice-in-2022 I hear you. We are talking Democrats here, they do have a knack for pulling defeat out of the jaws of victory. But this is such a low bar, can they still screw it up? As a side note, Manchin and Sinema have both supported 100% of Biden's lower court picks.
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Jan 27, 2022 01:43
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if they gently caress this up and lose another justice 2 months before the midterms, dems would lose so many seats it'd make the 1862 midterms look like a cakewalk edit lmfao a good linked market would be NO on supreme court and pick the republican senate candidate to win in NY and vermont
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Jan 27, 2022 01:49
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i say swears online posted:if they gently caress this up and lose another justice 2 months before the midterms, dems would lose so many seats it'd make the 1862 midterms look like a cakewalk
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Jan 27, 2022 02:40
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The most important election of our lives possibly. Again!
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Jan 27, 2022 02:42
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net work error posted:New Supreme Court Justice by 2023 market: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7649/Will-the-Senate-confirm-a-Supreme-Court-justice-in-2022 I think what you're describing is worth maybe 1-3c. Confirming a SCOTUS nominee will be a key priority for the Senate. Inestimably more important than the various minor appointments they tend to drag their feet on and miss deadlines for.
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Jan 27, 2022 03:17
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BREAKING NEWS: Sherrod Brown Hit By Bus
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Jan 27, 2022 03:36
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https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7719/Will-the-Senate-confirm-a-Supreme-Court-justice-by-April-1 Not saying its a guarantee that a new justice will be confirmed by April 1, but at 22 cents I do like the odds. At a minimum when Biden makes a pick and the inevitable bio picks come out and describe all her accomplishments, the price of yes will spike. Both Manchin and Sinema have voted for 100% of Biden's other judges, I don't think either one will stand in the way of the first black woman. Murkowski and Collins are probably more than 50/50 at this point. This announcement is the most expected thing imaginable, you know that they have been vetting these women for a year now, expect a pick shortly. It took the Republicans only 27 days to confirm Barrett, Democrats have twice that amount of time. Granted these are DEMOCRATS we are talking about. If it was Republicans in a 50/50 senate where a bunch of them were over 75 and from states with Democratic governors in an election year, the price of a similiar contract would be 97 cents right now.
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Jan 29, 2022 18:33
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I agree with everything you've said and the rumor mills includes democrats pushing the nominee in as fast as possible as a snide gesture to the GOP.
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Jan 31, 2022 02:02
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1862 wasn't so bad as far as midterms go
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Jan 31, 2022 07:41
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Does PredictIT send us tax forms for our winning or losses?
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Feb 1, 2022 02:59
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Crosby B. Alfred posted:Does PredictIT send us tax forms for our winning or losses? They send them digitally to your associated email account. They already went out for 2021.
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Feb 1, 2022 03:51
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I think there is a cutoff, if you're under a certain amount they don't send. Make sure you don't have losses you can claim tho!
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Feb 1, 2022 04:02
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Baddog posted:I think there is a cutoff, if you're under a certain amount they don't send. Make sure you don't have losses you can claim tho! I can... claim gambling losses as a tax write-off?
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Feb 1, 2022 05:29
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Crosby B. Alfred posted:I can... claim gambling losses as a tax write-off? I can't speak to the tax rules and deductibility, but the predictit income is technically reported on a 1099-MISC and isn't categorized the same way as actual gambling winnings.
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Feb 1, 2022 06:25
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Crosby B. Alfred posted:I can... claim gambling losses as a tax write-off? This is gambling? poo poo son, we aren't playing lotto here. Vox Nihili posted:I can't speak to the tax rules and deductibility, but the predictit income is technically reported on a 1099-MISC and isn't categorized the same way as actual gambling winnings. Yep, I gotta admit I've never realized a yearly loss on predictit so I was kinda talking out my rear end. But if I did, I would definitely attempt to talk my accountant into netting it out against other 1099s, gambling winnings, or short term cap gains. Somewhere! Its bullshit to trade something that is functionally like an option, pay taxes if you win, but not be able to write it off if you lose. I am not an accountant myself tho! Our tax code is bullshit, I have to pay someone to figure out where to plug all my stuff in. Somehow in all my years of "gambling", I've managed to never get a W-2G. Baddog has issued a correction as of 09:40 on Feb 1, 2022 |
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Feb 1, 2022 09:31
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i say swears online posted:BREAKING NEWS: Sherrod Brown Hit By Bus lol i lost Clue, it was colonel lujan with the stroke in the new mexico
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Feb 2, 2022 00:14
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