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I tried predictit and the thing i bought went to 1c immediately. now ur all caught up, this owns
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Feb 13, 2021 19:11
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bollig posted:i've been away from a screen for 24 hours what exactly is going on. 
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Feb 13, 2021 19:21
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Grey Fox posted:thinking out loud again: if Agriculture March 1 YES dips low enough I might get in because I can envision a significant bump at a minimum when the Senate figures out how to juggle normal business and the trial in the last week of February. it's kind of catching a falling knife, though
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Feb 13, 2021 19:22
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bollig posted:i've been away from a screen for 24 hours what exactly is going on. More evidence for the report that will come out in a few years about the depths of the meaningless political grandstanding being done solely to manipulate and profit from political betting markets. Merlot Brougham has issued a correction as of 19:42 on Feb 13, 2021 |
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Feb 13, 2021 19:39
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this impeachment has been amazing. so many huge market swings
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Feb 13, 2021 20:39
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Hopefully they didn't cave just cus the republicans threatened to call 300 witnesses and drag this out. Christ they look weak.
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Feb 13, 2021 21:06
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they caved because they made plans to be with their mistresses tomorrow
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Feb 13, 2021 22:10
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gently caress I got owned playing the "buy all the 'safe' no brackets" game. One more Republican voted to impeach than I accounted for.
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Feb 13, 2021 23:48
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Feb 13, 2021 23:53
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Originally i was doing "but all the 'safe' no brackets, and then be one bracket more cautious than that" and would've won on that, but I also saw an opportunity for negative risk and getting negative risk is fun so I did that instead.
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Feb 13, 2021 23:57
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Vox Nihili posted:gently caress I got owned playing the "buy all the 'safe' no brackets" game. One more Republican voted to impeach than I accounted for.
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Feb 14, 2021 00:08
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Did anyone happen to put any down on Burr flipping? I suspect no one did but if so, why? That's was a surprise.
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Feb 14, 2021 00:47
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Crosby B. Alfred posted:Did anyone happen to put any down on Burr flipping? I suspect no one did but if so, why? That's was a surprise. i had shares on most of the GOP convict markets. in fact i ended up in a more bullish position toward # convict votes than i anticipated or wanted. took giant washes with some, got big wins with cassidy mostly. maybe down $200 on the day and it could have been orders of magnitude better or worse so i'm okay with it
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Feb 14, 2021 07:34
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i tried to snipe swings as the roll call came in but i guess my stream was super delayed or whatever
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Feb 14, 2021 07:34
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comedyblissoption posted:i tried to snipe swings as the roll call came in but i guess my stream was super delayed or whatever Anecdotally from the comments, cable C-Span is a couple seconds ahead of stream C-Span which is sometimes all it takes.
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Feb 14, 2021 07:36
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and if the networks are covering something, use antenna whereever possible
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Feb 14, 2021 07:47
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*in extremely local area onion guy voice* i dont even have cable tv
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Feb 14, 2021 08:04
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Wall Street levels mountains to increase speed of line of sight data transmissions for microsecond trading improvements on multiple domestic and foreign exchanges to make billions. Main street uses a radio shack antenna to shave two seconds off the C-SPAN feed for a $300 predictit wager so they can afford rent.
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Feb 14, 2021 09:44
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lol I bought Burr Yes at .09 and immediately put in a sell order at .11 and ignored the market for weeks expecting it to pop a little on some stupid rumor or other Turning a 10-bagger into 10% is still much better than most of my trades
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Feb 15, 2021 04:15
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The Pompeo/Blinken money finally ends tonight. I'll be sad to see it go.
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Feb 15, 2021 16:38
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i say swears online posted:i had shares on most of the GOP convict markets. in fact i ended up in a more bullish position toward # convict votes than i anticipated or wanted. took giant washes with some, got big wins with cassidy mostly. maybe down $200 on the day and it could have been orders of magnitude better or worse so i'm okay with it I ended up losing a couple hundred but its my fault for paying attention to my conference calls over PredictIT markets but that said this was baby's first market. Following the hysterical media cycle does work provided that you are quick enough and I made $20 off of Republican John Thune. If anything, now I'm really bored with the remaining markets. Confirmation dates are boring.
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Feb 15, 2021 23:38
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Finally
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Feb 16, 2021 13:41
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I miss MAGA money
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Feb 16, 2021 16:36
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lol if you haven’t connected to every supplyer to find the fastest information in order to have a competitive advantage
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Feb 16, 2021 16:57
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This seems like the safest market right now that has a decent rate of return. Seems like they are pretty close, they have a month left and it seems like a dumb thing for the organizers to lie about. This is not a market that Newsom WILL be recalled, just that there will be a vote later on. An I missing anything before I decide to go all in? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7039/Will-there-be-enough-signatures-by-Mar-17-for-a-vote-on-recall-of-Gov-Newsom https://twitter.com/tomdelbeccaro/status/1359699376919044099?s=20
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Feb 17, 2021 04:56
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Zeta Taskforce posted:This seems like the safest market right now that has a decent rate of return. Seems like they are pretty close, they have a month left and it seems like a dumb thing for the organizers to lie about. This is not a market that Newsom WILL be recalled, just that there will be a vote later on. An I missing anything before I decide to go all in? The only question is whether they have enough valid signatures by March 17. Usually the rejection rate is very high because people will sign twice, unregistered voters will sign, etc. They are likely to make it but I don't know if it's 99% likely or 75% likely.
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Feb 17, 2021 05:43
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Im not following the California recall effort whatsoever, so in that context, I notice the tweet in your post is from Feb 10. It appears the price fell out on that market over the weekend because it was trading around 90 until Sunday. What happened there?
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Feb 17, 2021 05:46
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Zeta Taskforce posted:This seems like the safest market right now that has a decent rate of return. Seems like they are pretty close, they have a month left and it seems like a dumb thing for the organizers to lie about. This is not a market that Newsom WILL be recalled, just that there will be a vote later on. An I missing anything before I decide to go all in? The organizers, sure. But california is a state that allows paid signature gathering, so there can be plenty of reason for people lower down the chain than the people running the whole thing to lie about it.
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Feb 17, 2021 06:15
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Zeta Taskforce posted:This seems like the safest market right now that has a decent rate of return. Seems like they are pretty close, they have a month left and it seems like a dumb thing for the organizers to lie about. This is not a market that Newsom WILL be recalled, just that there will be a vote later on. An I missing anything before I decide to go all in? After a couple days of extremely casual research into this market, it seems like a solid play, especially while current prices are still dipped.
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Feb 19, 2021 16:50
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It's gonna be weird when Newsom wins his own recall election but it's an easy 20%.
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Feb 19, 2021 18:06
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As I understand it CA SoS will update the current official sig tally tonight, so the play should be to buy up No now in the 20s and dump it during the ensuing panic when all the yes holders start freaking out.
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Feb 19, 2021 19:12
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Stupid question but when people in the comments discuss B1/B2/B3/B4 etc, what is that referring to? How do I know whether an option is "A1" or "B6" or w/e
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Feb 19, 2021 23:35
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Manchin... Thank you.
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Feb 19, 2021 23:38
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Jay-V posted:Stupid question but when people in the comments discuss B1/B2/B3/B4 etc, what is that referring to? How do I know whether an option is "A1" or "B6" or w/e Refers to the brackets. Vox Nihili made bank betting on B1 in that screenshot. B2 would be the "50-52" bracket and so on until Bmax is the one on the bottom.
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Feb 19, 2021 23:47
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Vox Nihili posted:Manchin... Thank you. sell while you can, they'll get romney. take the money
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Feb 19, 2021 23:51
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OK thank you i thought it was more complicated than that for some reason
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Feb 19, 2021 23:51
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i say swears online posted:sell while you can, they'll get romney. take the money I would have sold at 80c if I had caught it in time. Zero chance any Republican steps over Manchin, though. Biden would have to flip Manchin at this point.
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Feb 19, 2021 23:59
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Merlot Brougham posted:As I understand it CA SoS will update the current official sig tally tonight, so the play should be to buy up No now in the 20s and dump it during the ensuing panic when all the yes holders start freaking out. helloooooooo
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Feb 20, 2021 01:35
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Gavin Newsom Recall Sigs (by period via SoS): 06/10-07/03 35,460 07/04-08/03 19,238 08/04-09/03 352 09/04-10/06 308 10/07-11/05 230 11/06-12/07 442,148 12/08-01/06 226,004 01/07-02/05 370,717 TOTAL 1,094,457 PROCESSED 798,310 VALID 668,202 (83.7%) NEEDED 1,495,709
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Feb 20, 2021 02:00
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Are you guys buying the Yes dip on the Newsom recall?
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Feb 20, 2021 02:15
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