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Yeah I put a buy at .53 when you posted the SoS update and it just filled, may still have room to fall
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Feb 20, 2021 02:29
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I'm still wary, do we know exactly how many votes the organizers say are coming?
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Feb 20, 2021 02:30
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Looking at the order book I think .52-.50 might be a floor
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Feb 20, 2021 02:31
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i say swears online posted:sell while you can, they'll get romney. take the money Is the goon advice here to Short B1 and Bet on B2? Also, the Newsom recall seems really risky right now at 50/50. Checking the math, that's another 800k votes.
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Feb 20, 2021 03:20
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https://twitter.com/akoseff/status/1362947996195819521?s=19 https://twitter.com/dril/status/464802196060917762?lang=en i cannot get my brain to focus on market research
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Feb 20, 2021 03:40
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Crosby B. Alfred posted:Is the goon advice here to Short B1 and Bet on B2? I think there's a >75% chance that Neera is toast at this point. I don't see any Republicans risking their neck for her when a number of their colleagues openly hate her and a Democrat has come out against her nomination. Other goons will likely have different thoughts on the matter.
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Feb 20, 2021 03:46
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either they have the votes or she voluntarily removes her name from consideration very soon
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Feb 20, 2021 04:00
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got another hat email
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Feb 20, 2021 09:09
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Tunicate posted:got another hat email Hahahahaha same
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Feb 20, 2021 09:53
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Vox Nihili posted:Hahahahaha same I did not. What's the scoop on these latest hat emails? If it's about their photo contest, my vote goes for recreating the Burt Reynolds bearskin rug photo, with tasteful placement of a Predictit hat of course.
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Feb 20, 2021 10:19
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Merlot Brougham posted:I did not. What's the scoop on these latest hat emails? Apparently my third hat is arriving Wednesday. 
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Feb 20, 2021 10:55
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If anyone is game to sell me one of their extra hats (a dark/black one would be cool) for a non-exorbitant price, I'd love to snag one from ya. I need a constant reminder of my terrible, terrible bets.
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Feb 20, 2021 11:04
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Vox Nihili posted:Apparently my third hat is arriving Wednesday. Vox!!!!!! I went back and looked through my spam folder again, found an email from the 20th (that wasn't the first offer eh?). For what its worth this one says you need to maintain 3K with them through March 1 to qualify. When I click through I see the hats/mask, but there isnt any link to actually *get* the hat. Its like one more step in the tease. I'm guessing the blank implies I'm very late and its out of stock. Dunno why google lets through their daily spam, but had to catch the hat offer. It came from predictit@predictit.org as well, but the display name was "The PredictIt Team".
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Feb 20, 2021 18:17
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Vox Nihili posted:Apparently my third hat is arriving Wednesday. I will double check as well. While my hat(s) issue was resolved due to my proactive bitching, my mask is not the color requested. Will definitely be firing off irate emails until the issue is rectified.
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Feb 20, 2021 18:41
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I am now in on the Newsom recall market on No after Yes went to 70c+. I think the recall campaign is only submitting signatures they have internally verified but is reporting total figures that include the signatures they have already set aside.
Vox Nihili has issued a correction as of 05:05 on Feb 21, 2021 |
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Feb 21, 2021 05:03
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Basically relying on this guy to do the analysis for me. https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1362928380958547971
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Feb 21, 2021 05:27
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The market volume is low enough to make things interesting if a few well timed moves were made. Just sayin'.
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Feb 21, 2021 06:59
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Looking at the a little deeper but the Recall Election Organizers  claim that have enough signatures. They just haven't validated them yet.https://twitter.com/thatnesler/status/1362923911894102019?s=20
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Feb 21, 2021 21:35
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god I hate neera so much why do I continue to lose so much money on her
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Feb 22, 2021 17:22
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i say swears online posted:god I hate neera so much why do I continue to lose so much money on her neera may or may not be responsible for adopting this rule
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Feb 22, 2021 17:24
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I was doing the thing! I was impartial! I was long her despite my personal animosity! Now I hope Manchin imminent domains her house watch biden find a 50th vote today
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Feb 22, 2021 17:30
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some of my best friends are neera! classic overcompensation
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Feb 22, 2021 17:44
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I even learned some famous neera spirituals
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Feb 22, 2021 17:45
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lol https://twitter.com/ericawerner/status/1363912115539558407?s=21 they also opened a new market without the March 1 time constraint https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7134/Who-will-be-the-next-Senate-confirmed-OMB-Director
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Feb 22, 2021 19:17
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i say swears online posted:I was doing the thing! I was impartial! I was long her despite my personal animosity! Now I hope Manchin imminent domains her house Romney confirmed he's a nay btw
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Feb 22, 2021 19:34
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Newsom market's pushing back to 80. Sold off everything but some now-house-money yes shares I bought sub .60 during the dip after flipping the no's. Glad I started paying attention to this one. Thanks for the heads up, Zeta.
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Feb 22, 2021 19:48
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Time to count all the money I made on Neera Death. I'm rich bitch!!!
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Feb 22, 2021 20:48
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Vox Nihili posted:Romney confirmed he's a nay btw yeah that's what made me sell Vox Nihili posted:Time to count all the money I made on Neera Death. i didn't want to put money on the things i wanted to happen irl!! agh
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Feb 22, 2021 20:56
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i say swears online posted:yeah that's what made me sell That's what I'm telling myself, that I would've made emotional mistakes playing that market that were worse than sitting on my hands
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Feb 22, 2021 21:38
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i say swears online posted:god I hate neera so much why do I continue to lose so much money on her It's fun to see Republicans respond to why they won't vote for Neera, because of her mean tweets! I guess that means there won't be any goons in office either 
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Feb 22, 2021 22:27
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i say swears online posted:i didn't want to put money on the things i wanted to happen irl!! agh Full disclosure: I had 4,000 shares a few days ago (before Manchin announced he was a no) and decided I was too exposed, so I trimmed down to 2,000. That little maneuver cost me about $1,500.
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Feb 22, 2021 22:35
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hahaha raimondo NO is a lock now 
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Feb 22, 2021 23:48
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lol neera
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Feb 23, 2021 03:17
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Merlot Brougham posted:Newsom market's pushing back to 80. Sold off everything but some now-house-money yes shares I bought sub .60 during the dip after flipping the no's. Yeah, and I probably have the highest basis of everyone here. 77 cents because I bought a week ago. Congrats to all of you who bought on the dip.
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Feb 23, 2021 04:13
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So,  is 80 Yes on Newsom's Recall just dumb MAGA money or people who won't read beyond headlines?
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Feb 23, 2021 04:32
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Crosby B. Alfred posted:So, FWIW, I'm yes on this. This isn't a perfect analogy, but I remember how awful early 2017 was and how Democrats kept chasing all these special elections that didn't pan out, but there was all this frantic energy mixed with panic, money, and the urge to do something. MAGA is all in on this, they need a victory and I think they get it. But it will be a pyrrhic victory. They force a vote, but there is no way Newsom loses. Another analogy, remember how many times Wisconsin Democrats tried to recall Scott Walker? Newsom hasn't been that great on COVID and you just have to say the words "French Laundry" to make 30% of Californian's blood boil. Forcing a recall isn't all that hard when the other side is bitter and motivated, pulling it off is another matter.
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Feb 23, 2021 05:17
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it wasnt that long ago a california democratic governor got recalled and replaced by *checks notes* arnold schwarzenegger
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Feb 23, 2021 06:06
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Crosby B. Alfred posted:So, There's a solid chunk of dumb MAGA money if the comments are anything to go by. I think No is great value at 20c. Just don't come looking for me if you lose $850 on it!
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Feb 23, 2021 11:27
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Crosby B. Alfred posted:So, I wonder exactly how many people truly think their financial willpower can sway reality. I do believe this market will ultimately resolve Yes, though.
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Feb 23, 2021 11:49
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Vox Nihili posted:I think No is great value at 20c. Just don't come looking for me if you lose $850 on it! Ah hah! For those odds, putting a little down does make sense. While I don't care for Newsom personally even as someone who leans left I do agree with other posters that he'll get an easy re-election. Gucci Loafers has issued a correction as of 14:35 on Feb 23, 2021 |
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Feb 23, 2021 14:26
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