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BrutalistMcDonalds
Oct 4, 2012




Lipstick Apathy

Previous thread (archived for some reason)


quote:

"Alongside ruined roučs with questionable means of support and of dubious origin, degenerate and adventurous scions of the bourgeoisie, there were vagabonds, discharged soldiers, discharged convicts, runaway galley slaves, swindlers, charlatans, lazzaroni, pickpockets, tricksters, gamblers, procurers, brothel keepers, porters, literati, organ grinders, rag-pickers, knife-grinders, tinkers, beggars; in short, the entirely undefined, disintegrating mass, thrown hither and yon, which the French call...

...C-SPAM."

-- Karl 'A Day Late and a Dollar Short' Marx
https://www.predictit.org

quote:

What is PredictIt?
Are you someone who regularly gets frustrated when the general public gets worked into a frenzy over something you know to be impossible, or blown out of proportion? Do your friends, family, and coworkers generally hand-wave away your attempts at reasoning against the screaming heads on the television, only to forget you'd even said anything about it a week later? What if I told you there was this magical website where you could make money off this phenomenon? You'll still be that lone jerk who ruins conversations at happy hour but at least you'll have the beer money covered.

PredictIt is a "predictive market" that operates sort of like a stock market, but is different in a few key ways. As a trader you can buy & sell shares of a certain real-world event occurring at some point in the future. These shares can be bought & sold for any amount between $.01 and $.99. If the event occurs, the 'Yes' shares settle at $1.00 while the 'No' shares become worthless while if the event doesn't occur, becomes impossible, or simply passes its expiration, then the 'No' shares settle at $1.00. Easy peasy.

So I can trade these, too?
Yes! If you've bought shares you don't have to wait for the deadline! You can turn around and offer your shares right back onto the market at a higher price. Know that a certain event is a sure bet, but will have huge swings in public opinion in the meantime? Buy low, wait for a scandal to break, then sell high! Once the media frenzy passes over the price will settle again and you can buy right back in at the low price! For a good example of this: check out the Will North Korea test a nuclear weapon market over the past 90 days.

This sounds shady... is it legal?
Yep. The parent company has a no-action letter from the CFTC. So unlike InTrade they went to the CFTC before launching the site to make sure everything they did was kosher. The biggest restraint imposed on them is the $850 maximum buy-in to any one market. So basically if you get drunk and dumb the most you can lose on any one bet is $850. Please don't drink and trade.

So what's the catch?
PredictIt only charges you 10% of your winnings and then a 5% withdrawal fee. What this means is that if your shares settle, you only pay a cut of what you made. So for example if you bought a share at $.20 and had it settle at $1.00, you only pay the 10% off the $.80 you made in profit, in this case being $.08. The other time they charge is a straight 5% withdrawal fee. Because of that if you're only planning on betting once then cashing out, you shouldn't purchase any shares around .94 or higher as the withdrawal fee will sap all your earnings anyways. However if you plan on re-investing your winnings you can run with much tighter margins as there's no charge for buying shares.

Helpful Hints:

+ READ THE ACTUAL RULES OF THE MARKET BEFORE BUYING ANYTHING
+ READ THE ACTUAL RULES OF THE MARKET BEFORE BUYING ANYTHING
+ Don't bet any more money than you're willing to watch vanish before your eyes
+ Don't take advice from the comments section
+ Don't place bets when you're drunk
+ Markets are very volatile when they first open. Subscribing to their email alerts is a good way to get the jump on a new market when it's being its most silly.
+ DON'T BUY THE HYPE
+ :siren:DON'T PLAY THE POLL MARKETS :siren:
Alright the old thread was dead so have at it you degenerate chain smokers.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HMva00IO0zA&t=20s

BrutalistMcDonalds has issued a correction as of 19:16 on Sep 21, 2018

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BrutalistMcDonalds
Oct 4, 2012




Lipstick Apathy

Anyways talk about your bets. I've done pretty well this year betting on progressive underdogs in House races and on AMLO in the Mexican elections when he was underpriced.

Things are kinda quiet for me now though, since I don't bet on poll markets [NEVER BET ON POLLS] unless things are already assured a few hours before midnight and I can make a guaranteed few bucks (hey, it'll buy a few tacos).

My general strategy, to the extent I have one, is to bet small amounts in a variety of different races. I bet in some risky ones, but mainly I spread my moolah out in a lot of "safe" markets in which I'm only guaranteed a small return but which compound over time. For instance, Debbie Stabenow winning her Senate race in Michigan is priced at 86c which is actually pretty low for someone guaranteed to win unless an asteroid lands on her. She was even priced lower I believe primarily because MAGAs -- and they are all over PredictIt -- think the Michigan black vote will all go for John James.

Betting on MAGA stupidity can be a path to success -- of course, the MAGAs are right some of the time (2016) so you could lose your rear end too.

Other goons might have different strategies. Some won't bet on safe races at all. Some will only bet if they can make a lot of money, but they take a lot of risks, and I don't know their secrets.

Right now some of the hot markets are over Kavanaugh. This might be an opportunity if the Republicans dump him.

literally this big
Jan 10, 2007



Here comes
the Squirtle Squad!


Thanks for making this thread!

So I'm still figuring our PredictIt myself, and I'm wondering what's the highest buy you can make and still turn a profit. I bought some "Trump approval rating by this date" for 89˘ just a few hours before it closed and ended up winning. It wasn't much, but still a pretty great ROI for a few hours time. Are stuff like guaranteed 95˘ markets worth buying into for the small but consistent ROI. Why doesn't everyone just buy gobs of closing-soon 99˘ shares and turn a small-but-steady profit that way?

literally this big has issued a correction as of 19:15 on Sep 21, 2018

Boatswain
May 29, 2012


I'm gonna do this IRL, time to get a Moleskine :getin:

BrutalistMcDonalds
Oct 4, 2012




Lipstick Apathy

literally this big posted:

Thanks for making this thread!

So I'm still figuring our PredictIt myself, and I'm wondering what's the highest buy you can make and still turn a profit. I bought some "Trump approval rating by this date" for 89˘ just a few hours before it closed and ended up winning. It wasn't much, but still a pretty great ROI for a few hours time. Are stuff like guaranteed 95˘ markets worth buying into for the small but consistent ROI. Why doesn't everyone just buy gobs of closing-soon 99˘ shares and turn a small-but-steady profit that way?
if it's 99c you're practically making a few cents anyways, and it's often better to *sell* at 99c because of the risk of a freak incident (we are betting on elections after all): a quirk in the rules, or a recount in a close election, the winning candidate keels over from a heart attack, or any number of things that could end up locking your money in a market for awhile. and if you're buying above 90c, you're probably putting a high proportion of your overall funds in to make a meaningful return at all, even if it's only a few bucks. so you have to weigh the tradeoff of having a lot of your funds in these markets when they could get higher returns elsewhere.

at least that's it for me, since i don't gamble with a lot of money.

i usually don't really bother above 90c unless it's on election night and the AP has called it. or like the "trump approval rating" right before it closes. i've done that over and over again over a period of months, and the return has been pretty good. like i said it compounds over time.

be careful though. i tread ***really*** carefully with any kind of poll or approval market.

also playing swings is really risky. on election nights when the returns start rolling in, the markets go haywire because people are placing bets on early results and so on -- you could easily fall in a hole doing that.

BrutalistMcDonalds has issued a correction as of 19:29 on Sep 21, 2018

dougdrums
Feb 25, 2005
CLIENT REQUESTED ELECTRONIC FUNDING RECEIPT (FUNDS NOW)

I have a friend that's really into predictit, but I find the fees to be pretty ridiculous. It's still fun to check when there's some news, but the odds are always bad with the fees factored in.

I did the IEM when it was active. It was a blast because I knew some of the people I was trading with personally, so there was a lot of lunch buying :smug:.

I wish there was a prediction market that did weather futures.

E: I did try to predict the number of tweets for politicians, but there's just not enough samples. It was a bit uncomfortable how well you could determine their regular schedule and such though.

dougdrums has issued a correction as of 10:34 on Sep 22, 2018

BrutalistMcDonalds
Oct 4, 2012




Lipstick Apathy

lmao glad I bought Kavanaugh NO shares

El_Elegante
Jul 3, 2004
Probation
Can't post for 367 days!


Biscuit Hider

BrutalistMcDonalds posted:

lmao glad I bought Kavanaugh NO shares

how volatile has that market been?

Boatswain
May 29, 2012


Isn't the plot of the bad movie Pi (sorry, π) someone trying to create a machine that could compute the winning bet on predictit.org?

BrutalistMcDonalds
Oct 4, 2012




Lipstick Apathy

El_Elegante posted:

how volatile has that market been?
well until a few hours ago all the chuds had him being confirmed hovering around 70c

:rip: them

uber_stoat
Jan 21, 2001





Pillbug

a few more rape accusations and you can stick a fork in him!

Jon Joe
Oct 19, 2011

GUESS WHO'S LYING


Grimey Drawer

Somebody message me when Avenatti goes up for sale 2020 dem nom winner/general winner, I'll buy as many of those for a penny as I can afford.

bawfuls
Oct 28, 2009

Plague Champion


so who's betting on :kav: ?

market seems to think Murkowski is a no while the rest of the GOP falls in line, and Manchin breaks ranks

Murkowski sounded like Collins yesterday when asked about Kav overtunring Roe though, which makes me think she's a yes

it is difficult to imagine only one Republican breaking rank on this, seems like it would have to be 2 or nothing to me

Shear Modulus
Jun 9, 2010







who the gently caress are these people buying booker and klobuchar

why is harris ranked first

Kazak_Hstan
Apr 28, 2014



Grimey Drawer

Amy Klobuchar is really good at getting mentioned as a possible candidate for president, or cabinet nominee. It is like her single, sole talent in this life.

I just started predictit and I have a dumb question:

I have allocated all of my money into contracts, so I have a zero cash balance right now. I want to set up some orders on the shares I have to sell at $.10 higher than I bought them, however, when I try to do that, it tells me I need to add money to my account. Do I have to have a cash balance to put up a sell order for shares I own at a higher price than I paid for them? It seems like the 10% fee could come out of the money when/if the shares sell.

Shear Modulus
Jun 9, 2010





Kazak_Hstan posted:

Amy Klobuchar is really good at getting mentioned as a possible candidate for president, or cabinet nominee. It is like her single, sole talent in this life.

I just started predictit and I have a dumb question:

I have allocated all of my money into contracts, so I have a zero cash balance right now. I want to set up some orders on the shares I have to sell at $.10 higher than I bought them, however, when I try to do that, it tells me I need to add money to my account. Do I have to have a cash balance to put up a sell order for shares I own at a higher price than I paid for them? It seems like the 10% fee could come out of the money when/if the shares sell.

if it's a "linked market" (like any election one where there are 10 candidates you can bet on but only one can win) then cashing out one position can actually increase the amount you have at risk. if you buy a second contract in a market that hedges your bets (limits your maximum losses) they actually give you a credit to bet more and if you want to un-hedge your bets you need to cover that with cash

Kazak_Hstan
Apr 28, 2014



Grimey Drawer

This is just a simple ten shares of "no" on ted cruz winning. I don't have any shares on "yes." I bought the shares at $.55 and want to put up a sell order for them at $.65. But when I try to do that it prompts me to put more money in.

Vox Nihili
May 28, 2008



Shear Modulus posted:



who the gently caress are these people buying booker and klobuchar

why is harris ranked first

PI markets that won't resolve for years generally self-select for idiots. None of the ~serious players~ bother with that garbage.

Former DILF
Jul 13, 2017



Shear Modulus posted:



who the gently caress are these people buying booker and klobuchar

why is harris ranked first

and why is there no option for hillary

Shear Modulus
Jun 9, 2010





Former DILF posted:

and why is there no option for hillary

theres no option for basta either which come the gently caress on

Jon Joe
Oct 19, 2011

GUESS WHO'S LYING


Grimey Drawer

who's kamala harris?

Mariana Horchata
Jun 30, 2008



College Slice

Jon Joe posted:

who's kamala harris?

ACAB

Former DILF
Jul 13, 2017



shes a tough on crime succ dem

Shear Modulus
Jun 9, 2010





Former DILF posted:

shes a tough on crime succ dem

*: tough on crime does not apply to financial fraud by future trump cabinet members

Kazak_Hstan
Apr 28, 2014



Grimey Drawer

the $25 i put in is currently down :siren: $1.30 :siren:

jesus christ this is even worse than fantasy football

i'm stressing over losing less than two mcdonald's hamburgers

come on beto get a good poll, I need to make .9($.40) off your race

Vox Nihili
May 28, 2008



Kazak_Hstan posted:

the $25 i put in is currently down :siren: $1.30 :siren:

jesus christ this is even worse than fantasy football

i'm stressing over losing less than two mcdonald's hamburgers

come on beto get a good poll, I need to make .9($.40) off your race

Toss in $500, you'll be feeling gr8 in no time.

literally this big
Jan 10, 2007



Here comes
the Squirtle Squad!


Is it just me, or is the best way to use Predict It to click on the Closing Soon tab and buying easy wins like "Trump's Approval Rating on [Date]" and "Dem's Congressional Edge on [Date]"? It seems pretty easy to tell when there's no more chance of another poll getting published that day to change the numbers, and then just buy in on the correct result. The faster / riskier you are, the better price you can get in at, but you can pretty easily get in at ~80˘ for an easy profit in a very short time. Even if you buy in relatively late, like at 90˘, that's still a next-day guaranteed 11% profit.

I'm making 17% from a Trump Approval Rating market I bought in to earlier today. I waited until I felt comfortable that there wouldn't be any more updates for the day and bought in at 85˘. That's +17˘ for every $1 I bought in to that market, with an ~8 hour turnaround time. These markets seem extremely low-risk, high-profit. It's insane.

im on the net me boys
Feb 19, 2017

Hhhhhhhhhhhhhhhjjhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhjhhhhhhjhhhhhhhhhjjjhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh cannabis


I'm looking forward to the results of this one https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/4823/Who-will-NYT-confirm-as-anonymous-op-ed-author-in-2018

Fiona Hill seems like an odd choice to me tho

Kazak_Hstan
Apr 28, 2014



Grimey Drawer

In addition to raising $38M or whatever, Beto has made me $1.30. Hell yeah!

abelwingnut
Dec 23, 2002



there are seriously no goons playing pi on its single biggest day yet?

ScrubLeague
Feb 11, 2007



Nap Ghost

I put the $8 I had left over from 2016 into the expected outcomes

abelwingnut
Dec 23, 2002



sad!

Kazak_Hstan
Apr 28, 2014



Grimey Drawer

Abel Wingnut posted:

there are seriously no goons playing pi on its single biggest day yet?

friend, literally my entire invested wealth ($25, which has grown to $25.83) is in pi and [clap hands empjis] I am nervous today!

Kazak_Hstan
Apr 28, 2014



Grimey Drawer

I might never be able to retire but I *am* a very powerful level 2 prognosticator.

Shear Modulus
Jun 9, 2010





its cute how predictit says im a level something expert because ive been positive on the majority of my bets but overall am bigly in the hole thanks to crooked hillary

AceRimmer
Mar 18, 2009


I put $200 on various pro GOP bets :rip:

bawfuls
Oct 28, 2009

Plague Champion


PredictIt with some clever marketing in their email blasts today

Moridin920
Nov 15, 2007

by FactsAreUseless


Shear Modulus posted:

its cute how predictit says im a level something expert because ive been positive on the majority of my bets but overall am bigly in the hole thanks to crooked hillary

the stock market is like that too lol

im on the net me boys
Feb 19, 2017

Hhhhhhhhhhhhhhhjjhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhjhhhhhhjhhhhhhhhhjjjhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh cannabis


I made a few cents by selling my Nikki Haley NYT Op Ed shares, and I put a lot of money into the Bundestag dissolving by next year. I think I have a winner.

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Merlot Brougham
Dec 16, 2004

The White Darryl Strawberry




Salad Prong

Always remember the Republican strongholds of Dutch West Michigan will report before the majority of the population of Michigan which resides in the very Democratic Detroit area.

Tonight was a good night if you took that early call Stabenow money after doubling up from early returns showing John James ever had a chance (HA HA) and played the swings in Arizona on the low end and then got scared and traded out after a few cents in Connecticut.

Seriously, can someone explain what the H happened in the CT Gov market tonight? Not complaining about my choices this evening but it seems like there was a lot to be had in that market I was oblivious to.

Also, weed is now legal in Michigan by a landslide, but the predictit knew that a long time ago.

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