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i haven't checked the damage from tonight but i probably broke even
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Nov 7, 2018 06:39
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this thread is probably going to go quiet for awhile but 2020... oh boy
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Nov 7, 2018 06:39
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I stayed clear of election bets because I feel like those are way more involved than I have time for in gambling, but my portfolio has been going up with my bets on Germany. The Bundestag dissolving by 2019 is at 50/50 now.
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Nov 7, 2018 06:56
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i've still got 3 left to come in tomorrow probably but i turned $8 into $11 so a much better outcome than 2016 where I turned $50 into $8
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Nov 7, 2018 08:14
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basically broke even on what’s left of my post-2016 funds
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Nov 7, 2018 08:31
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Holy poo poo, man. This election. I think I have a gambling problem, and I think my gambling problem just paid off. literally this big has issued a correction as of 13:32 on Nov 7, 2018 |
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Nov 7, 2018 13:29
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Is there any chance of 53 GOP senate left? 
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Nov 7, 2018 20:38
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Made some good money last night.
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Nov 7, 2018 21:29
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jumped on the sessions question to make a couple cents. that was fun
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Nov 7, 2018 21:54
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Made back Tuesday losses and more, thanks to Sinema
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Nov 9, 2018 01:07
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I made a bunch of money off of election night, but I got greedy and went back in for some too-close-to-call races and now I'm down a few bucks. Anyone have any suggestions on what to do with these positions?  I went in on Republicans in both markets because they seemed like sure money on election night, but I'm guessing all the remaining uncounted ballots are giving everyone a panic and/or causing them to think that the Dems will win, and it's really loving with the market. I bought the Democratic positions to hedge my losses. That seems to have been a good idea so far, but who knows where it's gonna go next. Any ideas on how to most gracefully exit these markets, and how to minimize my losses? Any idea who might actually win these races? literally this big has issued a correction as of 09:29 on Nov 9, 2018 |
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Nov 9, 2018 09:25
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people are thinking the dems may win because compared to day-of voting, mail in ballots (which they are still counting as they arrive) come from people who work for a living and aren't going to take off time during the workday to go vote in person if they dont have to i'd get the hell out and not try to pull a win out of it because this sort of thing will have new updated vote totals in the extreme short term with no warning, and if you don't happen to be on predictit at that exact minute you'll miss it
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Nov 9, 2018 09:46
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literally this big posted:I made a bunch of money off of election night, but I got greedy and went back in for some too-close-to-call races and now I'm down a few bucks. So I have no idea who will actually win, but California elections are decided weeks after voting day by a daily-updated count of mail-in ballots which always have a moderate dem lean relative to the election day vote. Every day it will get closer and closer. Every election more people use the mail-in option, so it's hard to say how many are outstanding, especially in a weird waveish midterm election like this one. Voters are maaaybe 2/3 counted as of today. Where it will stop, nobody knows. Good luck! Vox Nihili has issued a correction as of 10:05 on Nov 9, 2018 |
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Nov 9, 2018 10:03
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i put the ten bucks i didnt put on roy moore on barbra comstock losing and made like a buck fifty or something 
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Nov 9, 2018 10:29
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Vox Nihili posted:So I have no idea who will actually win, but California elections are decided weeks after voting day by a daily-updated count of mail-in ballots which always have a moderate dem lean relative to the election day vote. Every day it will get closer and closer. Every election more people use the mail-in option, so it's hard to say how many are outstanding, especially in a weird waveish midterm election like this one. Voters are maaaybe 2/3 counted as of today. Where it will stop, nobody knows. I should know this. I worked in the Doug Ose v Ami Bera election. There was literally a picture on the front page of the Sacramento Bee of me, at the county registrar's office, overseeing the ballot counting process, weeks after the election. 
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Nov 9, 2018 10:55
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this week's been a goddamn goldmine
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Nov 10, 2018 03:08
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Don Jr getting indicted 2018 has been cycling pretty aggressively between $.30-.40, pretty profitable cycle to ride. I bet Nelson in Florida is a pretty good buy low right now; three will probably be recount news that causes a bump at some point regardless of eventual outcome.
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Nov 11, 2018 00:28
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I just realized it's mid November and Merkel probably isn't going to leave office by year's end so I dumped my shares. But I'm holding fast that there will be a new parliament by end of 2019 even though I've lost $3 worth of what I've invested in that so far
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Nov 14, 2018 02:12
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wut happens if ur holding yes shares of a thing and it happens?
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Nov 14, 2018 03:48
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cargo cult posted:wut happens if ur holding yes shares of a thing and it happens? The payout is a dollar per share I think
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Nov 14, 2018 03:57
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cargo cult posted:wut happens if ur holding yes shares of a thing and it happens? The good poo poo
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Nov 14, 2018 04:00
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you get that number of votes into the King of Predictit council of cardinals election OP
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Nov 14, 2018 07:11
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I am level 3 now when do I get fire spells
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Nov 14, 2018 09:28
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Kazak_Hstan posted:I am level 3 now when do I get fire spells PredictIt.org/legacy for a usable interface.
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Nov 14, 2018 18:51
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Successfully closed out my last 12/31/2018-resolving position, time to start riding volatility on the 2020 presidential cycle I think. Still holding out hope I can take a couple more rides on don jr facing charges in 2018 though.
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Nov 14, 2018 21:05
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Next speaker market seems ripe for some near term waves, with news like this popping up https://twitter.com/MEPFuller/status/1062787335245520902
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Nov 14, 2018 21:21
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bawfuls posted:Next speaker market seems ripe for some near term waves, with news like this popping up Joe Kennedy is the 4th-highest-trading share, where the gently caress are people getting that idea.
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Nov 14, 2018 22:12
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Shear Modulus posted:Joe Kennedy is the 4th-highest-trading share, where the gently caress are people getting that idea. Well basically no one knows what the gently caress is going on
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Nov 14, 2018 22:14
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When is the caucus vote? The market won’t resolve until the floor vote, but this should be functionally over once the caucus vote happens. The minority already had theirs.
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Nov 14, 2018 22:20
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Shear Modulus posted:Joe Kennedy is the 4th-highest-trading share, where the gently caress are people getting that idea. I was about to say that Joe Kenney is a good market to get into. Pelosi's leadership isn't guaranteed, and Kennedy is a name that everybody knows (and could get behind). Easy enough to get shares at 2¢ and then try to flip them at 5. Also plenty of opportunity to buy in cheap at 2¢ and sell for more later.
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Nov 15, 2018 00:27
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I bought a bunch of "Pelosi will win, death is certain" shares. Hopefully I lose but lol.
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Nov 15, 2018 02:15
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And the only thing a gambler needs Is Nate Silver and some chuds And the only time he's satisfied Is when he's shouting Trump
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Nov 16, 2018 05:56
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I'm worried that PI just ate my money. I must be missing something super obvious, but I just can't figure out what's going on here. I had some [60-64 No] shares in the current Pence tweet market, and decided to unload them since it looks like that market might actually resolve in a [60-64 Yes]. I had 10 shares I bought at 74¢, and 31 I bought at 55¢. I listed them all at 62¢, and eventually they sold. But the money doesn't show in my available funds? I went to my account history, and saw this:  Starting with the bottom listing: I had 10 shares I bought at 74, and sold them at 62. I lost 1.20, paid nothing in fees (because I lost money on those shares), my risk in that market went down 7.40 from selling the shares, and my account was credited 6.20 from the sale. But then... I also had 31 shares that I bought for 55 and sold for 62. 62 - 55 = 7¢ profit per share. 7 x 31 = $2.17 profit. PI takes their cut of .217. So far so good. But then apparently my risk in that market went up $7.90? And $5.947 was removed from my account for some reason? What? I just sold 41 shares at 62¢ each. I should now have about $25.42 available in my account, but I only have 49¢ available (and some or all of that was there before the sale). Sorry if I missed something obvious, it's late at night here and I'm tired. But where's my money? What's going on here? Edit: So I guess this has something to do with this being a Multiple-Contract Market? Even after reading the About page I still have no idea how this works. What a completely unintuitive system. literally this big has issued a correction as of 08:30 on Nov 16, 2018 |
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Nov 16, 2018 08:08
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literally this big posted:I'm worried that PI just ate my money. I must be missing something super obvious, but I just can't figure out what's going on here. Yeah, the way "risk" works for no contracts in multi-contract markets is a bit complicated. Basically, PI gives you the opportunity to buy multiple no contracts in the same market for the price of the most expensive one, since only one contract can resolve yes. Anything you put in another no will actually reduce your risk, which gives you money back. The issue, then, is when you go to sell those shares, you may be increasing your risk, which takes money away from you. In some circumstances, you won't be able to sell no shares in linked markets because you don't have money free to cover your risk! As an example, consider a market with 10 linked yes/no contracts, each sitting at 10% yes / 90% no. If you buy 100 noes in a given bracket, you pay $90 for the shares. Simple enough! But now you can buy noes in any of the other 9 brackets and actually reduce your risk, because you'll win on every contract except, at most, for one! Risk even accounts for the amount you would win. Click on the "Your risk in this market: $xxx.xx" link on any given contract for a chart that breaks this all down.
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Nov 16, 2018 08:31
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Vox Nihili posted:Yeah, the way "risk" works for no contracts in multi-contract markets is a bit complicated. Basically, PI gives you the opportunity to buy multiple no contracts in the same market for the price of the most expensive one, since only one contract can resolve yes. Anything you put in another no will actually reduce your risk, which gives you money back. The issue, then, is when you go to sell those shares, you may be increasing your risk, which takes money away from you. In some circumstances, you won't be able to sell no shares in linked markets because you don't have money free to cover your risk! So I read thru this multiple times, and all I can say is: wut. 
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Nov 16, 2018 08:47
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literally this big posted:So I read thru this multiple times, and all I can say is: wut. Yeah I'm exhausted after working all loving day so my explanation is probably a bit wanting, but you can go here for a hopefully-cogent explanation under "MULTIPLE-CONTRACT MARKETS": https://www.predictit.org/legacy/About/FAQ It's pretty complicated but once you get the basics it becomes fairly intuitive and opens up a whole new style of betting.
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Nov 16, 2018 08:52
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the idea is that multiple no bets are also insurance against each other. it reduces the maximum you can lose (since you can only lose on at most one of the contracts and will win money on all others) so they give you the room back to bet with.
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Nov 16, 2018 19:23
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speaking of losing money i bailed out on "will avenatti run" when it crashed from like 60 to 20 a few days ago but was too busy to gently caress around on the internet yesterday when he came out bigly against it and the waters got muddied lmao
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Nov 16, 2018 19:24
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What’s the consensus on doubling down on a bet in more than one market? I currently have yes shares of Pelosi for speaker, as well shares of no on more than 26 votes against her on the floor. They’re pretty much the same bet: either Pelosi will be speaker, in which case she will not have 26 democratic votes against her on the floor, or she will not be speaker, in which case way more than 26 Democrats will vote for someone either than Pelosi for speaker on the floor. (Voting present doesn’t count as a vote against in the rules.) Looking at it now though it seems like I should pick the one with a better return and just do that one. I’m not trying to do some ultra-specific parlay bet here that she becomes speaker with an exact amount of opposition on the floor.
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Nov 16, 2018 21:04
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| # ? Apr 29, 2024 17:32 |
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Kazak_Hstan posted:What’s the consensus on doubling down on a bet in more than one market? The specific vote count one is more technical and there's an off-chance it gets weird. Otherwise, yeah, if you have a strong opinion about the outcome than more exposure is fine, it just means you're basically all or nothing on it (and it let's you circumvent the $850 per contract limit, if that's an issue).
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Nov 16, 2018 21:15
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