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Shear Modulus posted:
PI markets that won't resolve for years generally self-select for idiots. None of the ~serious players~ bother with that garbage.
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Oct 13, 2018 00:44
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Kazak_Hstan posted:the $25 i put in is currently down Toss in $500, you'll be feeling gr8 in no time.
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Oct 13, 2018 23:16
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$1.30
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literally this big posted:I made a bunch of money off of election night, but I got greedy and went back in for some too-close-to-call races and now I'm down a few bucks. So I have no idea who will actually win, but California elections are decided weeks after voting day by a daily-updated count of mail-in ballots which always have a moderate dem lean relative to the election day vote. Every day it will get closer and closer. Every election more people use the mail-in option, so it's hard to say how many are outstanding, especially in a weird waveish midterm election like this one. Voters are maaaybe 2/3 counted as of today. Where it will stop, nobody knows. Good luck! Vox Nihili has issued a correction as of 10:05 on Nov 9, 2018 |
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Nov 9, 2018 10:03
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cargo cult posted:wut happens if ur holding yes shares of a thing and it happens? The good poo poo
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Nov 14, 2018 04:00
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Kazak_Hstan posted:I am level 3 now when do I get fire spells PredictIt.org/legacy for a usable interface.
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Nov 14, 2018 18:51
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Shear Modulus posted:Joe Kennedy is the 4th-highest-trading share, where the gently caress are people getting that idea. Well basically no one knows what the gently caress is going on
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Nov 14, 2018 22:14
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I bought a bunch of "Pelosi will win, death is certain" shares. Hopefully I lose but lol.
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Nov 15, 2018 02:15
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literally this big posted:I'm worried that PI just ate my money. I must be missing something super obvious, but I just can't figure out what's going on here. Yeah, the way "risk" works for no contracts in multi-contract markets is a bit complicated. Basically, PI gives you the opportunity to buy multiple no contracts in the same market for the price of the most expensive one, since only one contract can resolve yes. Anything you put in another no will actually reduce your risk, which gives you money back. The issue, then, is when you go to sell those shares, you may be increasing your risk, which takes money away from you. In some circumstances, you won't be able to sell no shares in linked markets because you don't have money free to cover your risk! As an example, consider a market with 10 linked yes/no contracts, each sitting at 10% yes / 90% no. If you buy 100 noes in a given bracket, you pay $90 for the shares. Simple enough! But now you can buy noes in any of the other 9 brackets and actually reduce your risk, because you'll win on every contract except, at most, for one! Risk even accounts for the amount you would win. Click on the "Your risk in this market: $xxx.xx" link on any given contract for a chart that breaks this all down.
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Nov 16, 2018 08:31
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literally this big posted:So I read thru this multiple times, and all I can say is: wut. Yeah I'm exhausted after working all loving day so my explanation is probably a bit wanting, but you can go here for a hopefully-cogent explanation under "MULTIPLE-CONTRACT MARKETS": https://www.predictit.org/legacy/About/FAQ It's pretty complicated but once you get the basics it becomes fairly intuitive and opens up a whole new style of betting.
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Nov 16, 2018 08:52
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Kazak_Hstan posted:What’s the consensus on doubling down on a bet in more than one market? The specific vote count one is more technical and there's an off-chance it gets weird. Otherwise, yeah, if you have a strong opinion about the outcome than more exposure is fine, it just means you're basically all or nothing on it (and it let's you circumvent the $850 per contract limit, if that's an issue).
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Nov 16, 2018 21:15
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Utah 4th market sitting right at 50/50 now. It's coming down to whether the last batch of provisional ballots from Salt Lake City tips just Democratic enough to push McAdams over the top.
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Nov 19, 2018 23:51
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Kazak_Hstan posted:lmao I had not read the comments until this market, this unhinged sweaty nerdfighting is well worth the $16 I irresponsibly risked on this venture The comments are typically 60% hapless chuds raging out, 30% pure trolling/bait, and 10% whales styling on the chuds/idiots/trolls and bragging about winning. Oftentimes you can tell when a market is ripe by the sheer volume of chudspam. They almost universally just pick the Republican to win/outperform regardless of anything else
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Nov 22, 2018 03:44
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Espy has been available in the 4-6c range tonight. Haven't bought any myself (since I'm tied up in Pelosi etc.) but it's a pretty drat good value on a race that's probably closer to 80-20. Lottery tickets, etc.
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Nov 27, 2018 08:12
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MS runoff markets have some volume going
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Nov 28, 2018 02:45
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Lol the GOP senator market.
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Dec 6, 2018 08:16
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Lutha Mahtin posted:man if this is the level of the average PI player i should really start trading again The average PI player is even worse but the average PI $ is much, much, much smarter.
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Mar 6, 2019 07:42
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Anyone else ready to relive 2015? https://www.predictit.org/legacy/Contract/7717/Will-Joe-Biden-run-for-president-in-2020
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Mar 6, 2019 07:45
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They just added Yang to the Dem Presidential Primary market. Negative risk hoarders can presently pick up Yang No for only 93c!
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Mar 12, 2019 00:48
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The Joe Man posted:So since they'll add Yang but not Gabbard or anyone else that's declared, does that mean it's not a "locked" market (which is a really dumb hardstance regardless)? I don't know what that means but I expect them to add some of the other candidates at some point.
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Mar 12, 2019 01:18
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Biden No available for 9c. Apparently he's pushing back any launch until "after Easter" and is considering a "one-term pledge."
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Mar 21, 2019 19:19
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bawfuls posted:these all seem like indicators he's still gonna do it tho This is like the fifth time he's pushed back the launch date, which is similar to his endless foot-dragging in 2016. I don't think that's a good indicator for a launch. The rest reads like someone trying to come to terms with a lot of criticism. Biden seems painfully aware of his weaknesses. Anyway, he could definitely still run at any moment, but for 9c I'm on the "let's just do it and be legends" train.
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Mar 21, 2019 19:35
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Abel Wingnut posted:define deep? and your reasoning? I don't know about that guy but I'm 4,000 shares deep on Biden Run No, some purchased for as little as 4c (bulk at 9c). Might start selling off a bit if the price keeps rising, it's in the 15c range and almost no one is buying yes anymore.
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Mar 23, 2019 22:12
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Vox Nihili posted:"let's just do it and be legends" 
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Mar 26, 2019 07:31
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CassandraZara posted:Just wanna say you're doing God's work trolling the comment section, Vox. It's been fun, but god I wish I had just pushed all-in below 10c.
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Mar 30, 2019 05:53
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CassandraZara posted:Finally took my profit at 40c, average buy-in of 11. Gonna play the yo-yo a bit but I think he's more determined to run than ever. Smart move.
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Apr 3, 2019 20:36
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CassandraZara posted:This is definitely addictive. I've basically made more than my day job this year so far just by taking the long-shot position on whether X candidate runs, even if Hillary and Oprah decide not to run. Flipping 1c shares up to 3c or something thereabouts?
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Apr 20, 2019 00:29
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Biden is set to announce Thursday. I sold all my old No shares ages ago, but my God he's such a coward.
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Apr 24, 2019 07:52
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The biggest debate bump market had a wacky result. Based on their use of Rasmussen, Tulsi edges out Booker for the biggest bump ( 2.51% rounded up to a 3% gain over her prior 0% result). She wasn't among the contracts listed, so the field won and all contracts resolved No. Anyone playing the negative risk game made out like a bandit.
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Aug 2, 2019 23:36
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Debate mention markets are back, baby! https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/5870/Will-a-Houston-debate-candidate-mention-Sharpie https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/5871/Will-a-Houston-debate-candidate-mention-mandatory-buyback Time to get degenerate!!!
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Sep 12, 2019 04:51
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Vox Nihili posted:Debate mention markets are back, baby! Made ~$500 on these, the mandatory buyback market in particular was hilarious.
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Sep 21, 2019 00:39
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Mr. Dick posted:Is there an entry for homeless people being forced into military conscription? Not yet. Note: post below reserved for Tercio.
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Sep 24, 2019 22:37
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The CHUDs are getting frothy again and think Hillary is going to run. It's free real estate. https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/4614/Will-Hillary-Clinton-run-for-president-in-2020
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Sep 27, 2019 06:57
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bawfuls posted:only trouble is that market won’t close for like another year Yep. The hope is that after the registration deadlines etc. pass it will trend to 99c or thereabouts. I already have my sell orders set.
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Sep 28, 2019 23:17
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CassandraZara posted:Finally sold my “Will Hillary run” shares @ 21c, which I felt like an idiot for buying at 12c many months ago. Making money by flipping insane bargain bets up to crazy people is the best part of Predictit.
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Oct 9, 2019 20:35
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Jenny Agutter posted:picking up some Hillary yes for a laugh Theres a thriving marketplace of people buying Hillary yes for cheap and flipping them upwards when the CHUD contingent stumbles upon the contract. High risk work, but their demand is loving insatiable.
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Oct 18, 2019 23:11
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Made $300 on the Kentucky margin of victory market for tonight. Looking at the Mississippi margin market and wondering if I should dive in.
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Nov 6, 2019 04:00
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Vox Nihili posted:Made $300 on the Kentucky margin of victory market for tonight. Looking at the Mississippi margin market and wondering if I should dive in. 
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Nov 6, 2019 07:41
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It isn't yet clear to me if Bloomberg is going to actually file with the FEC (which is the basis for market resolution). The filing today may just be a necessary step to keep his options open. My guess is that he does file, though.
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Nov 9, 2019 07:32
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Hillary Run is spiking again, if anyone wants to hop on the No train. https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/4614/Will-Hillary-Clinton-run-for-president-in-2020
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Nov 13, 2019 07:46
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Benchmarks for the Louisiana election tonight. https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1195852155510493184 
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Nov 17, 2019 01:11
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