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Zesty
Jan 17, 2012

The Great Twist
I don't think that'sthe case. His edit was really favorable because he's a fun character for TV but that doesn't necessarily translate to a win.

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Spergatory
Oct 28, 2012
Elizabeth recently did an AMA, and said from her perspective as first juror that Christian would in fact have beaten anyone if he made it to the end, partly because that narrative building around him in-game made every round he survived more impressive, and partly because, yes, his inherent likability combined with the fact that, with the sole exception of Carl, none of the people he eliminated went to the jury feeling betrayed by him meant there was a building sense of people rooting for the guy to keep surviving and defying the odds. Making it to the end with that kind of narrative around him would've been very impressive.

Not saying she's 100% right, just that the sense of Christian as an overwhelming jury threat was very real to both players and jurors at the time.

Zesty
Jan 17, 2012

The Great Twist
I'm not saying he can't win. I'm just saying it's not so simple. I think a Nick-Christian-Angela(lol) F3 is more up in the air than that.

Also I'm not too sure first juror has a good handle of what's going on in the game. and there's so much more hindsight with these interviews after Christian has been dazzling America's televisions for two months.

SweetJahasus
Dec 23, 2005

Dragon Slayer
Samurai Warrior
Escape Artist
Viking
Chong-Ra Master

BE THE WIZARD
Except he had everyone charmed, even when he was out there. They all said it themselves, that he's a major threat too win because everyone can't help but like him. You even saw the Goliath team embrace him and respect him (even knowing that he was dangerous to them). I think that the guy who was a) widely liked b) pegged on minute 1 of the game as the ultimate "David" and c) survived despite being a long-term target would absolutely win.

Against Nick, yeah he'd have some trouble because Nick was more strategic, but then you'd have to cross-section the jury to see who would respect that vs just someone who they like, which with Survivor juries is often leaning towards the latter.

Notty
Jun 4, 2010
I also wonder if there's not some degree of confirmation bias where someone might think "They're stupid for voting me out instead of this guy who everyone knows will win, therefore if he makes it to the end I should vote for him because the other two were stupid for voting me out instead of the guy everyone knows will win."

Fast Luck
Feb 2, 1988

STAC Goat posted:

But like... is there anyone from the Amazon besides Rob C we think deserves a second chance? Game just used to be a lot more shallow.
Before Rob C, the most shocking strategic things to ever happen in Survivor were 1) Richard Hatch utilizing "alliances" and 2) the people that were openly shown to be on the bottom of their alliance in Survivor: Marquesas deciding not to stay with that alliance. Rob actually proactively moving around in the game and engineering unorthodox votes and coming just one challenge short of winning was revelatory and probably the biggest single leap in the evolution of the strategic game the show ever had.

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

Watching you sleep.

Butt first, let's
check the feeds.

Yeah. Hatch, Boston Rob, and Rob C earned their reps by being revolutionary. They saw a way to play the game that no one else was seeing at the time. But like, its tough to know how they'd do today now that everyone has figured that out and ever cast has at least half a dozen people playing the game the way Rob did. Its possible those "pioneers" are just smarter than everyone else and would outsmart everyone again, but its also possible they just grew the game and then were passed by.

Its something we see in sports all the time, especially fighting sports. Fighters dominate for awhile because they're doing something new that the rest of the field doesn't know how to beat. Then after a little while they learn and a new bunch of fighters show up who can match that pioneer and better him. Survivor players just don't hang around in the game season after season so we never see them get surpassed or get old.

Lone Goat
Apr 16, 2003

When life gives you lemons, suplex those lemons.




STAC Goat posted:

Survivor players just don't hang around in the game season after season so we never see them get surpassed or get old.

nah, just look at all the dingbats in Gamechangers like Wigglesworth, Savage, and JT that got passed by because they couldn't handle the new gameplay style.

Spergatory
Oct 28, 2012
There were old schoolers in that season that were trying to change their game up though, and new schoolers who were just as clueless as any old school player. Keith Nale had to be convinced by his allies not to walk out of the game trying to do the "honorable" thing at one point. And Kimmi Kappenburg almost stole the season right out from under the eventual winner by trying to engineer a 3-2-1 at the final six. It drat near worked, and it wasn't the eventual winner that sussed it out, it was their allies. They believed her right up until the votes for them were read.

And yes, believe it or not, Kimmi would've beaten anyone in that final six had she gotten to the end.

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

Watching you sleep.

Butt first, let's
check the feeds.

And no one really had Wiggles, Savage, or JT pegged as big strategic players in the first place. There was that whole "old school vs new school" thing in Second Chances that did speak a bit to what we're talking about as far as the "old school pioneers" like Rob and Hatch. But it really just speaks more to the point. Players like Wiggelsworth and JT were just more common in the "old school" while there's a lot more "Rob Cs" in the "new school."

But that doesn't mean a gamebot wins every season. It still comes down to casts, jury, and how they get played.

ApplesandOranges
Jun 22, 2012

Thankee kindly.
It’s kind of weird to think of J.T. as an old school player, but I guess his season was before HvV.

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

Watching you sleep.

Butt first, let's
check the feeds.

Yeah, I don't know where the line of demarcation between "old school" and "new school" but Russell and HvV seems as good as any.

Either way JT certainly fits the idea as someone who won on social charm and challenge aptitude because people were loyal enough to not cut him. If you ran that scenario over in today's game I can't imagine Fishbauch lets JT get anywhere near the end, and his obsession with a JT stand in (Joe?) probably proves that.*

*And to his credit Fishbauch seems to own all that.

Elphiem
Dec 4, 2005

CFC Fan
Anyone else watching the new season of Shipwrecked?

Looks like they have pre-built shelters.

Khanstant
Apr 5, 2007
I googled that and the main thing that pops up is somebody on it shits themselves so hell yeah I want to watch this.

On what service are you watching this? British shows are so elusive, it's like the BBC and whoever want anything they make to be seen exclusively live on TV the first and only time it airs and only to the local islanders.

Ok well I found the first episode on youtube 2011 Shipwrecked: The Island and holy lmao this is like a weird survivor featuring people you'd expect on a crazy big brother. There's a dude whose main description of himself is "attention seeker" named is Kitten and he looks like an ugly Shameless brother got in a trainwreck with a tryhard middle school scene girl in 2003.

All the Essex people seem awful, is Essex like the part of brexit where rich, entitled turds are spawned?

This show is weird! I'm so used to having a Jeff around to handle the official business, this "tribal council" is heck of unfamiliar to me.

Khanstant fucked around with this message at 03:56 on Jan 31, 2019

Lone Goat
Apr 16, 2003

When life gives you lemons, suplex those lemons.




I might be seeing Johnny Impact/Mundo/Survivor/Hennigan at a wrestling show this weekend, if I get a chance to talk to him what should I ask?

Teek
Aug 7, 2006

I can't wait to entertain you.
I've been watching RhaP for awhile and Rob also sometimes has strange strategy takes in his BB and Survivor recaps that wouldn't really work. I'm not entirely sure why he thinks they would work, but they usually involve voting choices which would not be in the voters best interest. I'm not sure if that reveals an underlying flaw in his strategy mindset or what, but it may explain why he never won.

Adus
Nov 4, 2009

heck
He got to the end and lost in a tiebreaker. Him not winning was not really a result of poor strategy. Even the finalists said he deserved to be there during ftc.

If he played today then I feel like he wouldn't do so well but that's a different argument since it would just be speculation.

Fast Luck
Feb 2, 1988

Rob's usually pretty on point on the podcast, sometimes Stephen's a bit more accurate in my opinion, but Rob's still good. His only consistent questionable strategic opinion is that whenever someone turns on their alliance, he always says it's too early, but that's sometimes true. He does occasionally have some bizarre one-off theories like that Gabby crying at the Elizabeth tribal was faked to keep anyone from suspecting the strike force alliance but we all fall for some fan fiction once in awhile.

His biggest problem if he played now probably wouldn't be that he's "fallen behind" so much as people would just see him coming. Even if they didn't know who he was, you just meet him and you probably detect that "wily strategy guy" archetype, and even if he's not that treacherous in reality, he'd still be seen as threatening, while also not willing to strike first, and without being able to pull out many key immunity wins.

Rarity
Oct 21, 2010

~*4 LIFE*~

Lone Goat posted:

I might be seeing Johnny Impact/Mundo/Survivor/Hennigan at a wrestling show this weekend, if I get a chance to talk to him what should I ask?

Ask him if you can the Ombudsman of Slamtown

ApplesandOranges
Jun 22, 2012

Thankee kindly.
Cast bios are up on EW, I guess.

Also some gems reminding us that three out of four of the returnees have some good wit:

Wentworth:

Personal Claim to Fame: “Wentworth, does not count.” X9

SURVIVOR Contestant You Are Most Like: Kelley Wentworth from Survivor: Cambodia and I think she was also on Survivor: San Juan Del Sur.

David:

SURVIVOR Contestant You Are Most Like: I relate most to David Wright. That bald nerd just needs a hug.

Aubry:

Pet Peeves: Revisionist history

Spergatory
Oct 28, 2012

ApplesandOranges posted:

Wentworth:

Personal Claim to Fame: “Wentworth, does not count.” X9

SURVIVOR Contestant You Are Most Like: Kelley Wentworth from Survivor: Cambodia and I think she was also on Survivor: San Juan Del Sur.

Every time I think I can't love her more. :allears:

Elphiem
Dec 4, 2005

CFC Fan

Khanstant posted:

I googled that and the main thing that pops up is somebody on it shits themselves so hell yeah I want to watch this.

On what service are you watching this? British shows are so elusive, it's like the BBC and whoever want anything they make to be seen exclusively live on TV the first and only time it airs and only to the local islanders.

Ok well I found the first episode on youtube 2011 Shipwrecked: The Island and holy lmao this is like a weird survivor featuring people you'd expect on a crazy big brother. There's a dude whose main description of himself is "attention seeker" named is Kitten and he looks like an ugly Shameless brother got in a trainwreck with a tryhard middle school scene girl in 2003.

All the Essex people seem awful, is Essex like the part of brexit where rich, entitled turds are spawned?

This show is weird! I'm so used to having a Jeff around to handle the official business, this "tribal council" is heck of unfamiliar to me.

Season 9 is the current one.

Shipwrecked Battle of the Islands 2007 was the best one, definitely worth a watch.

Zesty
Jan 17, 2012

The Great Twist

Spergatory posted:

Every time I think I can't love her more. :allears:

She's my winner pick again and I haven't bothered looking at the bios of the rest of the cast.

Zesty
Jan 17, 2012

The Great Twist
Oh and if someone makes a half decent ad image for the thread, I’ll pay for a month of it right before the new season starts. Get some new people into the show to talk with us.

SweetJahasus
Dec 23, 2005

Dragon Slayer
Samurai Warrior
Escape Artist
Viking
Chong-Ra Master

BE THE WIZARD
Speaking of Survivor - did anyone ever hear what happened to Jeremy at the last finale? I heard mutterings of it on RHAP about him being a last-minute scratch but I don't think I ever heard why.

I'm sure it's just something about him being a petulant baby, but I'd be interested to know his rationale.

Lone Goat
Apr 16, 2003

When life gives you lemons, suplex those lemons.




thought you meant Jeremy Collins for a sec and got real confused, completely forgot that other Jeremy even existed for a while.

Shneak
Mar 6, 2015

A sad Professor Plum
sitting on a toilet.

SweetJahasus posted:

Speaking of Survivor - did anyone ever hear what happened to Jeremy at the last finale? I heard mutterings of it on RHAP about him being a last-minute scratch but I don't think I ever heard why.

I'm sure it's just something about him being a petulant baby, but I'd be interested to know his rationale.

He left Ponderosa early after getting voted out which is essentially a breach of contract resulting in a ban from the reunion. Same thing happened to Vytas in Cambodia.

Propaganda Machine
Jan 2, 2005

Truthiness!

Zesty posted:

Oh and if someone makes a half decent ad image for the thread, I’ll pay for a month of it right before the new season starts. Get some new people into the show to talk with us.

Define "half decent."

We're funny folk, maybe we can brainstorm taglines for the gif.

Also, I'm on my phone but I scanned the cast list yesterday. The only one I remember is the redhead waitress who brags about her 4.0 GPA from college, years ago. She'll do just great I bet!

Khanstant
Apr 5, 2007

Elphiem posted:

Season 9 is the current one.

Shipwrecked Battle of the Islands 2007 was the best one, definitely worth a watch.

I'm trying but can only find episode 2. This show is tricky to find, a few random seasons seem to be on youtube or dailymotion in complete order, otherwise it's just random clips or eps.

Also, wow, they spend 5 months out there, and the final prize is splitting 70,000 between X number of people!?

Rarity
Oct 21, 2010

~*4 LIFE*~
Shipwrecked really isn't a Survivor analogue so don't go into it expecting it to scratch that itch. It's basically 'watch a bunch of pretty people on a tropical island engage in typical British reality show bullshit'

Elphiem
Dec 4, 2005

CFC Fan

Khanstant posted:

I'm trying but can only find episode 2. This show is tricky to find, a few random seasons seem to be on youtube or dailymotion in complete order, otherwise it's just random clips or eps.

Also, wow, they spend 5 months out there, and the final prize is splitting 70,000 between X number of people!?

Yeah I forgot about the 5 month thing, crazy.

Propaganda Machine
Jan 2, 2005

Truthiness!

Rarity posted:

typical British reality show bullshit'

I still can't believe a Geordie(sp?) Shore alum went on Hells Kitchen AU--under Marco Pierre White of all people--and ended up my favorite.

I'm guessing these are mostly okay individuals with attitude issues who do poorly with peer pressure but well when surrounded by decent behavior.

Zesty
Jan 17, 2012

The Great Twist

Propaganda Machine posted:

Define "half decent."

Better than the poo poo I put up last season.

Spokes
Jan 9, 2010

Thanks for a MONSTER of an avatar, Awful Survivor Mods!

Zesty posted:

Better than the poo poo I put up last season.

was that "crapping in the ocean is called aquadumping"? because that got me to start watching survivor

Zesty
Jan 17, 2012

The Great Twist

Spergatory
Oct 28, 2012
Just listened to interviews with the returnees. Apparently, we have Fan Favorite Game Changer Sheriff Sierra Dawn Thomas to thank for Joey Amazing's new handlebar mustache, and it was actually even worse before the season. He trimmed it for the show.

Propaganda Machine
Jan 2, 2005

Truthiness!
Aw. I liked her.

Zesty
Jan 17, 2012

The Great Twist

Propaganda Machine posted:

Aw. I liked her.

Fan Favorite Fan Favorite Fan Favorite Fan Favorite Fan Favorite

Khanstant
Apr 5, 2007

Rarity posted:

Shipwrecked really isn't a Survivor analogue so don't go into it expecting it to scratch that itch. It's basically 'watch a bunch of pretty people on a tropical island engage in typical British reality show bullshit'

Hahaha okay, I don't know the right way to put this, but it doesn't even scratch that pretty people itch island. At first I thought it was a british hotness scaling thing, but spending 5 months eating gas station food for a small chance to split 70,000 britcoins has really got to lower the available pool of potential players. Does the UK take a 40-50 tax cut of winnings like we do here on top of that? But I guess that's also part of it, nobody so far has seemed too much like it was about winning so much as getting to avoid life and gain potential attention.

Khanstant fucked around with this message at 23:57 on Feb 2, 2019

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Raxivace
Sep 9, 2014

I’ve been watching Heroes vs. Villains.

What in the hell was Tyson thinking?

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