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redneck nazgul posted:you sound awfully confident of AA's alignment there, hambeet No, it's that I think we have a greater chance of finding an infected player if we pick someone else who hasn't already been tested. I don't know if it's probability or whatever, I don't remember that much at high school maths. AA could only have been infected last night. Someone we haven't tested yet could have been infected last night or a previous night.
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Oct 23, 2018 22:30
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redneck nazgul posted:incorrect Ok I'm all ears, why?
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Oct 23, 2018 22:37
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redneck nazgul posted:so, all we have to go off of for AA's alignment is his claim which isn't provable. just because nobody's counterclaimed yet doesn't mean it's not a lie. astute readers will note that at no point did i counterclaim AA or insinuate that he was lying, i'm simply trying to draw attention to the fact that he can't actually prove anything so it shouldn't be taken as gospel. I have no qualms being voted, but you're approaching this from the wrong angle. AA could not have been infected at the beginning of the night because he got the gun. Yeah? that's indisputable. Him trying to falsely claim he did it when it could be easily countered later on is frankly ridiculous. There is nothing to gain from that. I'm also not pushing for a lynch on someone based on flimsy evidence, I'm pushing for us voting in a way that presents the best opportunities for us. You seem to be looking for scum play in a game that I don't think would actually have it. If I was infected and I knew there were two or three other infected as of today, why would I stick my neck out for one other infected? If they get tested today and killed tonight, we're still recruiting another one tonight so why risk outing two infected? That literally makes no sense.
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Oct 23, 2018 23:09
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DB I'll write up something about what I'm on about with the night zero creature later when I've got 5 mins. I'll also break down the player list to work out if my idea for who next to vote actually seems to be the best play.
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Oct 23, 2018 23:19
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Toalpaz posted:A lumpen list? lol i guess. not a list of scum though, so is it really a lumpen? no it's just be a list of elimination
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Oct 23, 2018 23:27
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Dick Bastardly posted:beet are you drunk? When I posted that I was commuting, and I was going off my memory of the OP. So I've gone back and re-read the OP and I had made the wrong assumption about something. Instead of scrapping the post I'll put down here are what some of my thoughts were because it shapes what I was talking with redneck about on who to vote. My understanding is the game started with a creature who infected another player and then another was infected and so on. I was asking if that original creature for the night 0 recruit was a player or was it just a mechanic for flavour ie the dog that was killed and cpig picked the first infected. This mattered because if it wasn't a player creature on n0, then there was only one infected at the start of the game, not two. Yeah? Redneck spoke about it yesterday, scenario A or scenario B. I didn't comment on it then, I'm bringing it up now though. I was then going to talk about if we were hunting the original creature, (the n0 cult recruiter i guess you could say) or just playing whack a mole with the infected, but I had forgotten this part of the OP: CapitalistPig posted:Play will continue in this way until either the creatures have all been killed or until they have taken over the base (nothing can stop them from controlling the vote) So it's whack a mole not 'find the recruiter' and the infected numbers depend on rednecks scenario A or B.
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Oct 23, 2018 23:46
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I'm bored at work so i'll put my thoughts down on what I was saying earlier, but couldn't as I was phone posting.. If we assume there were two infected on day 1 (RF and another, or two others and they recruited RF the night he was killed) it means there are three infected alive today. With 10 players alive we have a 30% chance of getting an infected by picking randomly. We know AA wasn't infected at the end of yesterday, so to angle back around to what I was suggesting earlier: There is an 11% chance AA was infected last night out of the 9 uninfected players. The chances of him rnging the gun AND getting infected? Probably much lower again, but I suck at probability and cbf'd working that out. So I was suggesting that if we remove AA from today's testing list, because it is probably unlikely that he got the gun AND was infected, could increase our odds of hitting an infected. That gives us a pool of 9 players to test, 3/9 = 33%. So removing him only increases us by 3% so I wrote all that for nothing.  redneck nazgul posted:honestly, the more i think about it, the more a completely RNG approach to testing is probably best. So ultimately, yeah...
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Oct 24, 2018 00:15
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redneck nazgul posted:just random it well even though he got a gun night 1, so we wasn't one of hte original 2, it'll let us know if they're recruiting previously assumed cleared peeps ##vote hal babecandenza
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Oct 24, 2018 01:39
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CCKeane posted:Because it sounds like somebody feels like The Thing is infecting based on RNG, which I'm talking chance because i was trying to put some numbers down to see the best course of the next vote. of course it's not rng'd, it says the infected choose in the op
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Oct 24, 2018 03:29
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sure vote me i said, i'll vote too if it makes it easier. i'm uninfected. it really does not matter at this point, except to say that it's laughable people are trying to pick up scum slips. i think the scummiest thing to do this game is act like we can solve the game that way.
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Oct 24, 2018 03:31
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Oct 24, 2018 03:31
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redneck nazgul posted:i still say he's scummy as gently caress but i don't think i'm getting traction on it why equivocate? i'm not going to die by you voting me. it's not like you might kill a town power role.
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Oct 24, 2018 03:33
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yeah ++ ##vote keane i can only assume infected are going to front foot the 'who's the scummiest' play to try steer the vote towards uninfected, and then probably infect them that night.
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Oct 24, 2018 03:41
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Well the infected can't talk according to the OP. So all they can do is see what the other infected are doing in thread and follow suit, or try to take the lead themselves by playing a particular way.
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Oct 24, 2018 03:47
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Rhjamiz posted:I suppose? Stakes feel rather low, I guess is what I'm saying. No pressure to perform and thus slip or tip their hand. Oh no I agree with this, and I think I said it yesterday or this morning, but now seeing keane stretching for some sort of slip and redneck pretending like voting me matters makes me think there will be some sort of behaviours come out that we might be able to base some decisions around.
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Oct 24, 2018 03:58
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redneck nazgul posted:do your worst 
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Oct 24, 2018 04:08
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Rhjamiz posted:As far as I see, he's speaking statistically, not assuming RNG. We have no idea if there are any restrictions on infected recruitment choice. The OP clearly states the infected choose, so this line of attack looks nonsensical. P.much
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Oct 24, 2018 04:58
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CCKeane posted:So, to be clear, I have people voting me after I started asking hambeet questions as to why he is assuming an RNG? redneck nazgul posted:##vote hambeet lol have people given up on this game or something?
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Oct 24, 2018 06:42
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redneck nazgul posted:
well no, you're not. you were uninfected at the end of yesterday, but you could have been infected last night. so you could be anything now, but one thing you're definitely not is 'confirmed town'. so yeah sure, vote for me if you must. you gotta vote someone. but don't vote for the guy at -2 though. just split the vote instead, yeah? at least tonight's vig should be easier.
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Oct 24, 2018 06:43
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*fist bump*
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Oct 24, 2018 09:24
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Yeah cool vote me, sure. It does not bother me. I've not been tested yet, so it's somewhat productive. But! I'm super curious that Keane hasn't been tested yet and redneck (who was tested yesterday) really doesn't seem to want to test Keane. He'll test either his Google rng #6 (and he wanted us to stick to the rng) but now he'll also test me. Not Keane though.  Also AA tell me how am I interpreting things strange on night actions?
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Oct 24, 2018 21:05
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Cool. Vote Keane then. He has more votes on him.
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Oct 24, 2018 21:10
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Anomalous Amalgam posted:Well that whole bit about me being uninfected, I mean I don't mind the vote of confidence, but I think it reasons to stand that you could both get the gun, and then also be infected. I never said you couldn't be, I just said odds on it's less likely that you were both the gun recipient and infected on the same night. I even spelled out why I was trying to work that out, to see what our odds were for hitting an infected in the player in the remaining population. Did it improve dramatically just by removing one person, you? Because we knew you didn't start the night infected. Nope turns out only 3% and I abandoned that idea.
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Oct 24, 2018 21:13
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Dick Bastardly posted:##vote beet Ok. Another previously tested person doesn't want to test keane. Ok uninfected, whoever gets the gun tonight knows what to do. You've got three targets. ##vote beet
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Oct 24, 2018 22:12
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Someone's going to have to hammer, the infected are already all in on me I reckon.
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Oct 24, 2018 22:13
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GulagDolls posted:nothing happened yesterday or on any day. GulagDolls posted:anyone else hate this GulagDolls posted:nothing happened yesterday or on any day. well that's just killed all my motivation
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Oct 25, 2018 03:14
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##vote keane
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Oct 25, 2018 21:30
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Toalpaz posted:You'd technically be a good test too but I don't mind me or Keane. If the vig bothers to read the thread at all.
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Oct 25, 2018 21:35
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Dick Bastardly posted:i killed keane dead Thank god.
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Oct 26, 2018 01:39
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Gulag or redneck. Gulag hasn't been tested. redneck has been tested, but I feel they were trying to keep the vote away from Keane the day after.
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Oct 26, 2018 01:46
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I enjoyed the game because it was almost two games. Early game was more of a logic puzzle, and then became more traditional mafia as the infected team grew and they needed to influence the vote. Realising Keane has recruited me the night he died made me think I was going to lose as infected which was quite amusing. I don't feel the vote not being deadly was a bad thing because the infected grew every night and the night kill would just be luck. So there was still pressure and risk. But if the kill was withheld as suggested it looked as though the game was going to become a drawn out chatroom as someone else said. I'm glad that didn't happen.
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Oct 26, 2018 07:35
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b-minus1 posted:When I read this post my first thought was yep keane is infected lol yeah keane was super obvious, but i don't know why redneck backed him as he wasn't infected at that stage. maybe i did seem scummy, but i had others back me though some of them turned out to be infected lol
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Oct 26, 2018 13:11
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Rhjamiz posted:Yeah I assumed CP wouldn't have actually made it impossible for you to win and would have given you a kill. Welp. I think I hypothesized about it earlier but then abandoned it. but yeah, knowing that there's one 'cult recruiter' to catch doesn't detract from the mechanics.
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Oct 26, 2018 13:13
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Dick Bastardly posted:*slapping Rhjamiz* Why didn't you *slap* stick with the *slap* plan *slap* *slap* actually yeah this, i really didnt' expect a night kill
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Oct 26, 2018 13:58
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| # ¿ Apr 25, 2024 03:22 |
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gulag infected mvp
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Oct 26, 2018 14:07
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