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Right, but it is incredibly difficult to build a significant ground game in places like CA and TX if you're starting from minimal name recognition in a crowded field. I had forgotten about the proportional delegate rules on the Dem side, that does change the calculus somewhat.
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Dec 7, 2018 00:53
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bawfuls posted:Right, but it is incredibly difficult to build a significant ground game in places like CA and TX if you're starting from minimal name recognition in a crowded field. Any kind of proportional delegate allocation favors well known, well funded candidates who have the time and ability to build out a nationwide network well before campaigns "officially" start. I wouldn't say it's strictly impossible for an unknown to win under Dem rules, but it would require both a crowded field and for whoever is the front-runner at the start to fade away by the end, negating whatever advantage they had in early delegates. Bernie in 2016 is a good example. He didn't really contest a number of states on Super Tuesday because by the time he made the transition from his attempt to draw attention to issues to trying to win the whole thing, it was too late to build out that winning network that Hillary had spent years constructing. I think the irony of the rules is that for all the harm they did him in 2016, they'll actually be favorable to him in 2020.
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Dec 7, 2018 01:59
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bawfuls posted:Right, but it is incredibly difficult to build a significant ground game in places like CA and TX if you're starting from minimal name recognition in a crowded field. Sure but candidates can get name recognition without money if the campaign is focused around “earning media” through aggressive local campaigning and bold & impactful campaign planks. Another thing to consider is California gets almost 2x what Texas gets due to allocation based on democratic voters. It’s possible to run a campaign in only SF, LA, DFW, and Houston and come away with half the delegates from the two states even if you don’t win them both outright. I agree the campaigns are hella weighted towards the establishment but I also think this whole politicial system is so loving fragile anyone with actual politics could crash through any barriers like a goon through cake.
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Dec 7, 2018 04:25
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MysteriousStranger posted:He's not a known grifter, Bernie is. imagine how dumb you gotta be to think bernie is a grifter
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Dec 7, 2018 04:30
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bawfuls posted:Right, but it is incredibly difficult to build a significant ground game in places like CA and TX if you're starting from minimal name recognition in a crowded field. Well the good news for Bernie is that he already has name recognition and the ready-built capacity to raise loads of cash for a strong ground game in large states this time around. The other good news is that the first states are still Bernie-friendly and California (which moved up) is at worst Bernie neutral and probably a slightly above-average state for him when you consider places like the South and New Jersey. The bad news is that potential non-Bernie progressives are probably hosed.
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Dec 7, 2018 04:40
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Tricky Dick Nixon posted:Sherrod Brown is a center-left populist but he's definitely not a Bernie, and has a far less stellar record on foreign policy and has refused to commit to supporting Medicare for All., Yeah, refusing to commit to MfA at this point is basically a litmus test. Even Kirsten Gillibrand is unequivocal about it on the healthcare section of her website "issues" section (her language is actually a pretty good example of the sort of language people should look for, that is very clear and explicit about unequivocal support for MfA), so it's really hard to excuse anyone else who is supposed remotely "progressive."
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Dec 7, 2018 05:13
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Vox Nihili posted:Well the good news for Bernie is that he already has name recognition and the ready-built capacity to raise loads of cash for a strong ground game in large states this time around. The other good news is that the first states are still Bernie-friendly and California (which moved up) is at worst Bernie neutral and probably a slightly above-average state for him when you consider places like the South and New Jersey. I will say that I'm moderately concerned with the overall performance of Justice Democrats and Our Revolution in the midterms and I wonder what implications this has for the hypothetical Bernie campaign and how it may decide to organize, etc. Of course, the nature of Bernie's fundraising/organizing campaign is not exactly clear to me since he has kept that information to himself, which I mean hey more power to him.
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Dec 7, 2018 05:53
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Whoever has the Dem primary nom will get swept in on Bernie's down ballot in the general in a ton of places.
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Dec 7, 2018 05:59
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Lightning Knight posted:I will say that I'm moderately concerned with the overall performance of Justice Democrats and Our Revolution in the midterms and I wonder what implications this has for the hypothetical Bernie campaign and how it may decide to organize, etc. Of course, the nature of Bernie's fundraising/organizing campaign is not exactly clear to me since he has kept that information to himself, which I mean hey more power to him. Our Revolution is a shitshow and I wouldn't read too much into how their candidates performed because they didn't appear to do actual vetting beyond their policy questionnaire. My personal favorite example is their endorsement of a loving former ICE employee for the open seat in MN08. I don't believe their endorsement means anything because they don't do meaningful vetting.
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Dec 7, 2018 16:18
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Azathoth posted:Our Revolution is a shitshow and I wouldn't read too much into how their candidates performed because they didn't appear to do actual vetting beyond their policy questionnaire. My personal favorite example is their endorsement of a loving former ICE employee for the open seat in MN08. I don't believe their endorsement means anything because they don't do meaningful vetting. Well right, my concern is that this kind of sloppy organization might apply to Bernie's campaign come 2020, and how he decides who to endorse for downticket, etc. It's just one of those things that worries me but is also unclear to me.
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Dec 7, 2018 16:26
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from what i remember as soon as our revolution began, most of the original staff immediately resigned over some dispute (dont remember why) and so they were pretty much gutted of experienced talent from the start
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Dec 7, 2018 17:24
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THS posted:from what i remember as soon as our revolution began, most of the original staff immediately resigned over some dispute (dont remember why) and so they were pretty much gutted of experienced talent from the start Ouch. Was this the thing over Weaver? Or am I misremembering? I thought that was a thing in early 2017.
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Dec 7, 2018 17:25
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THS posted:from what i remember as soon as our revolution began, most of the original staff immediately resigned over some dispute (dont remember why) and so they were pretty much gutted of experienced talent from the start it was Weaver they were promised in the beginning he would not be involved and then whoops here's your new boss
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Dec 7, 2018 17:34
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oh yeah it was definitely weaver, lol drat what a fuckie wuckie
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Dec 7, 2018 18:20
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signing the petition to rename this thread: 2020 Democratic Primary Succ Succ Succ Gray Succ
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Dec 7, 2018 18:23
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who is weaver?
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Dec 7, 2018 18:25
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Jose posted:who is weaver? iirc he was Bernie's campaign manager in 2016 and is generally regarded as a mixed bag, possibly made questionable decision and apparently no one likes working with him.
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Dec 7, 2018 18:30
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he runs a comic book shop and probably used all that sweet 2016 money opening another one
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Dec 7, 2018 18:47
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Weaver was vindicated on basically every single decision he made that people complained about.
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Dec 8, 2018 06:52
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reignonyourparade posted:Weaver was vindicated on basically every single decision he made that people complained about. such as?
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Dec 8, 2018 06:58
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logikv9 posted:biden going to implode immediately so enjoy the show He let Obama and his son dying get in the way of him destroying Hillary, he's a loser! 
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Dec 8, 2018 07:09
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Shear Modulus posted:such as? the big one i remember was everyone thought he was a dumbass for not immediately rolling over when a bernie staffer accidently accessed hillary campaign data, then it quickly turned out that the DNC was actually breaking its own rules in the consequences it was trying to dish out and gave the bernie campaign back all the access they had been demanding back.
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Dec 8, 2018 07:13
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the only time i saw any actual criticism of weaver it was from hillarymen who thought he was too mean and divisive to their kween. hes good and i hope he runs the 2020 campaign, considering what he helped pull off in 16
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Dec 8, 2018 07:26
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Homeless Friend posted:He let Obama and his son dying get in the way of him destroying Hillary, he's a loser! bigly funny that Obama wouldn't support him if he ran in 2016
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Dec 8, 2018 16:01
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Sheng-Ji Yang posted:the only time i saw any actual criticism of weaver it was from hillarymen who thought he was too mean and divisive to their kween. hes good and i hope he runs the 2020 campaign, considering what he helped pull off in 16 eh, i'd rather he was just a surrogate. he's one of few progressive talking heads willing to be rude to tucker carlson.
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Dec 8, 2018 21:53
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Trabisnikof posted:signing the petition to rename this thread: 2020 Democratic Primary Succ Succ Succ Gray Succ only if klobuchar announces
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Dec 8, 2018 21:55
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Sheng-Ji Yang posted:the only time i saw any actual criticism of weaver it was from hillarymen who thought he was too mean and divisive to their kween. hes good and i hope he runs the 2020 campaign, considering what he helped pull off in 16 ~my bernie staffer friend~ hated weaver "jeff weaver is a cancer", is a thing they said, for example
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Dec 11, 2018 17:55
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Weaver being potentially good at his job and someone people don’t like working with aren’t mutually exclusive concepts. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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Dec 11, 2018 18:09
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weaver fired like 80% of the sanders campaign staffers weeks before ca primary, so they could spend more money on tv ads in california, for a race that was already lost. most of the staffers found out from news reports before the actual campaign told them they were fired. which is a big reason why so many sanders staffers still hate him
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Dec 11, 2018 18:25
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Concerned Citizen posted:weaver fired like 80% of the sanders campaign staffers weeks before ca primary, so they could spend more money on tv ads in california, for a race that was already lost. most of the staffers found out from news reports before the actual campaign told them they were fired. Sheng-Ji Yang posted:the only time i saw any actual criticism of weaver it was from hillarymen who thought he was too mean and divisive to their kween. hes good and i hope he runs the 2020 campaign, considering what he helped pull off in 16
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Dec 11, 2018 18:47
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https://twitter.com/HillaryClinton/status/1072502542075088896
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Dec 11, 2018 18:48
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half the staff of our revolution quit when weaver was put in charge, i didn't realize they were hillarymen though
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Dec 11, 2018 19:00
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I mean firing a bunch of your staff without notice seems like pretty lovely practice, especially for the campaign of a pro-labor politician. I’d like to see a citation tho.
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Dec 11, 2018 19:01
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Lightning Knight posted:I mean firing a bunch of your staff without notice seems like pretty lovely practice, especially for the campaign of a pro-labor politician. I’d like to see a citation tho. It definitely happened. Every single staffer working in an April 26h primary state (PA, RI, MD, DE, CT) got laid off at once. The practice up until then had been everybody gets moved to the next primary. Looks like it was 200 out of ~550 total staff. They got two weeks' pay and flown home, so the campaign didn't exactly leave them high and dry, but it definitely reflected the campaign's preference for advertising over organising.
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Dec 11, 2018 19:11
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to be fair they got severance, but this was the story that came out on the night of new england primaries: https://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/08/us/politics/bernie-sanders-staff-cuts.html quote:UNIVERSAL CITY, Calif. — Senator Bernie Sanders plans to lay off at least half of his campaign staff Wednesday as his battered presidential bid continues despite Hillary Clinton’s being declared the presumptive Democratic nominee, two people close to the campaign said Tuesday. this was the first the staffers being laid off heard about it. somewhere on my old computer there's a recording of the "welp you're all fired" call that happened in the late evening the next day, but it's not very interesting. but there are definitely still a lot of sore feelings over how it was handled.
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Dec 11, 2018 19:11
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Concerned Citizen posted:to be fair they got severance, but this was the story that came out on the night of new england primaries: That's from California in June~ AFAIK, the April 27th layoffs didn't leak to the media before they happened - I heard about them ~4 hours before the first news story.
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Dec 11, 2018 19:19
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Pinterest Mom posted:That's from California in June~ Whoops wrong article, now I'm on my phone. They did leak to media first because I remember talking to a couple Sanders staffers who had no idea if it was true, and one guy who was so mad about it he was like "do you want to listen to the layoff call." Even after the call it was not know immediately who was losing their jobs.
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Dec 11, 2018 19:23
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I'd like to know more about the expectation of campaign temp workers before I judge Weaver on that. I managed a rotating cast of seasonal workers for years and very little notice was pretty much the norm. Folks in that position know the assignment is ending at some point and while there's no excuse for workers to hear it from the news rather than their boss, I don't know that what happened outside of the expectations that were set.
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Dec 11, 2018 20:55
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Azathoth posted:I'd like to know more about the expectation of campaign temp workers before I judge Weaver on that. I mean yeah but also the way workers are treated in America is poo poo and if politicians are going to run on “workers deserve better” they should practice what they preach. It’s not a dealbreaker to me but it goes in the “that is disappointing and lovely” bucket. People who are part of the campaign are your most motivated and dedicated supporters, you can’t treat them like poo poo.
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Dec 11, 2018 20:57
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weaver managed the entire campaign and bernie rose from nothing to nearly winning the nomination against the most entrenched and party supported candidate in generations. he might be an rear end in a top hat but maybe thats what you need. that the most enthusiastic people to ditch him are disingenuous libs like cc just reinforces that.
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Dec 11, 2018 20:58
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