- Cart Mountain
- Nov 1, 2004
-
|
Here's the 1st round of The Athletic's first mock draft
quote:
1. Cleveland Cavaliers — Zion Williamson, Duke (scouting report)
Williamson clearly remains the top player in this draft. While he’s not the best prospect to come along in the last decade, he’s certainly a unique one insofar as there is no perfect comparison for his production, explosiveness and skill set. His 41.3 PER shatters the previous collegiate high of 36.4 (John Brown at High Point in 2016). And yet, he does it by mixing athleticism that will unquestionably win him a dunk contest in his NBA career with a frame that would make him the second-heaviest player in the NBA behind only 7-foot-3 “John Wick” star Boban Marjanovic. He’s not a perfect prospect. The jumper continues to be a question. Defensively, he’ll over-pursue in the name of action plays. Also, many executives have real questions about how long his balls-to-the-wall style of play will hold up long-term.
But at the end of the day, Williamson certainly holds the most star power and potential superstar equity of any player in this draft. For a Cleveland team in desperate need of such players, this would represent a home run. Following the departure of LeBron James last offseason, the Cavs have arguably the most uninspiring long-term core in the league, led by Collin Sexton and Larry Nance. Adding Williamson to that mix would disrupt the current calculus at play for general manager Koby Altman, giving the Cavs the kind of monster asset that the organization lacks. From a roster fit perspective, I wouldn’t love the idea of playing Williamson with Sexton, given the point guard’s proclivity for driving and pulling up from the midrange—an area of the court where Williamson’s unbelievable athleticism figures to thrive with the increased space of the NBA game. But you don’t pass on someone with Williamson’s upside because you have Sexton. This would be a no-brainer for the Cavs.
2. New York Knicks — R.J. Barrett, Duke (scouting report)
Barrett is still the No. 2 prospect on my board. The concerns about his game are real. He’s a straight-line driver who Duke does a great job of getting the ball to in advantageous situations (particularly when the Blue Devils start him on the right side of the floor and use him in dribble hand-offs to get downhill going left). There is not much in the way of wiggle to his game. The jumper is still inconsistent and will need some work before he can become a pull-up threat. And while he’s a good passer when he wants to be, his willingness to make plays for his teammates could use some work. Still, Barrett’s consistency and elite scoring ability shouldn’t be overlooked. He’s relentless in how he attacks on offense.
It’s difficult to put his production into perspective. In the last quarter century of college basketball, no high-major player has averaged at least 23 points, six rebounds, and four assists in a season. That Barrett is averaging 23.9 points, 6.7 rebounds and 4.0 assists a night at 18 years old while playing against one of the toughest schedules in the country shouldn’t be discounted. He’s a special player, even if there are some issues to iron out.
The Knicks have a significant need for wing playmakers. Tim Hardaway Jr. has done everything he can this season, but he’s limited. He and Courtney Lee are persistently involved in trade rumors as the Knicks try to clear cap space for this summer. Kevin Knox most likely fits better as a long-term four than on the wing. Barrett would be an immediate starter on the wing. Additionally, his singularly focused mentality would be unaffected by the unique pressure that the New York market can put on a young player. This would be a terrific fit.
3. Phoenix Suns — Ja Morant, Murray State (scouting report)
Morant has been the biggest riser up draft boards. Seen as a likely first-round pick entering the year, the electric Murray State guard has skyrocketed into conversations about who the best player in the draft is outside of Williamson. Simply put, Morant is a highlight waiting to happen with the ball in his hands. He’s lightning quick, keeps the ball on a string as a ball-handler and has explosive leaping ability off of two feet in the lane to posterize poor, unsuspecting souls who dare leap with him at the basket. His production this year has been spectacular, averaging 24.1 points, 10.6 assists and 5.8 rebounds per game. I could say that no one else has done that in the last quarter century of college basketball, but such a statement seems blatantly obvious. Of course no other modern player has matched production that absurd.
The big worries in regard to his translation are his jump shot, his ability to finish off of one foot in traffic at the basket, his extremely skinny frame and a turnover rate that has seen him give the ball up nearly six times per 40 minutes. Those aren’t small things. But he’s deservedly in this conversation simply due to the explosive star potential he possesses. For the Suns, the fit is obvious. The team badly needs a point guard it can develop and grow next to Devin Booker and Deandre Ayton. These three would figure to compliment each other terrifically. Morant is an awesome distributor who can get penetration with ease and play in pick-and-roll with Ayton. Booker can attack and space the floor. Ayton provides terrific power and post ability while also acting as a strong roll option. This is an easy win if he was on the board for Phoenix.
4. Chicago Bulls — Cam Reddish, Duke (scouting report)
Let’s assume that the Bulls do the right thing and send coach Jim Boylen as far away from the organization as possible. If I were Jerry Reinsdorf, I might even be willing to pay a Chinese NBL team to hire Boylen away just to make sure there are no residual effects of him staying in the country and yelling at a cloud about how soft the Bulls are or how they need to play harder. As our Stephen Noh wrote last week, there’s just no reason to let this experiment continue playing out beyond the farce that has been this season.
The reason I bring that up in the context of this pick is that putting Reddish into an unstable situation with a hard-rear end coach might not end particularly well. He’s seen around NBA front offices as a player with something of a laissez-faire attitude who is ironing out the inconsistencies of his game. He’s a bit turnover-prone due to a bit of a loose handle. Defensively, he’s been much better than he was at the prep level but is still inconsistent in terms of help reads. But the upside with Reddish is real. He’s a fluid athlete at 6-foot-9 who can put the ball on the deck, shoot it at a high level and creatively attack defenses from the combo three-four position as something of a point-forward wing who can also space the floor. He’s also shown the ability to defend when engaged. The Bulls’ weakest position is on the wing, so he’d fit remarkably well and have high upside.
5. Atlanta Hawks — Jarrett Culver, Texas Tech (scouting report)
Culver fits a lot of what Atlanta has looked for in the Travis Schlenk era in addition to filling some useful holes. He’s a shot-making wing at 6-foot-7 with length and terrific basketball IQ. He’s not the most athletic guy in the world, but he has enough to get by and become an NBA starter. Defensively, he’s not elite, but he’s good within Texas Tech’s complicated, changing-game-by-game man-to-man scheme. Additionally, he’s shown terrific growth in each of the last three years of his career. He’d be a terrific fit next to Trae Young, Kevin Huerter and John Collins within the Hawks’ young core.
6. Memphis Grizzlies — De’Andre Hunter, Virginia (scouting report)
The Grizzlies’ front office tends to operate on the basis of not wanting a full-scale rebuild. Obviously, that could change in the coming weeks, given that the team has informed Marc Gasol and Mike Conley that the team is realistically looking into moving them. Regardless, it’s easy to see how the Grizzlies would fall in love with a player such as Hunter. He’s a ready-made player for the next level who figures to have little-to-no adjustment time. He already has an NBA frame at 6-foot-8, 230 pounds with a 7-foot-2 wingspan. Defensively, he’s as sound as it gets in terms of his footwork both inside and out.
There is still some work to do offensively. His jump shot is solid, but still improving. He covers ground well due to his length, but his handle could stand to be tightened. He’s a good athlete, yet not quite an elite one. But a lot of this is nit-picky. Hunter should come in to the NBA ready to play early on and still possesses upside as he grows into his frame. For Memphis, this would be a pretty terrific pick.
7. Orlando Magic — Darius Garland, Vanderbilt (scouting report)
This one is more of a need-based pick. Garland is slightly lower on my board, but his fit with the Magic is too perfect to pass up. Orlando badly needs a long-term answer at point guard, someone who can grow with young big men Jonathan Isaac and Mohamed Bamba in order to help them develop on offense. Orlando also lacks a dynamic pull-up threat who can also get into the lane consistently. Garland has arguably the best pull-up game of any guard in the draft, a legitimate threat from 30 feet and in. He’s still developing as a distributor, and his defense is a particular weak spot. But with Bamba and Isaac projecting to be strong defensive players, they should insulate his issues more than other long-term core outlooks.
Garland recently withdrew from Vanderbilt in order to prepare for the NBA Draft after having surgery on his left knee for a meniscus injury. The injury is not seen by NBA teams as a concern in regard to Garland’s long-term outlook, but they do want to get a look at how it heals before the draft. At this point, that will play the biggest role in where Garland is selected on draft night.
8. Atlanta Hawks (via DAL) — Keldon Johnson, Kentucky
The Hawks acquired this pick as part of the Luka Doncic-Trae Young trade last season. This selection wouldn’t exactly be sexy, as Johnson isn’t a particularly explosive athlete by NBA standards. He projects more as a fifth-starter type on the wing as opposed to a potential star. But there’s a lot of reason to believe that he’ll reach that upside. He’s a hard worker and tough on-ball defender with size at 6-6. His energy and motor are contagious, and his skill level has grown to match that over the last year. I don’t know that he’s quite a consistent jump shooter yet, but he’s hit 38 percent from 3 this season while averaging 14.7 points as Kentucky’s best offensive option. Additionally, I’d note that in AAU he showed off a bit more passing ability than what he’s been able to portray this season.
Generally, he’s just a trustworthy prospect in a draft where question marks persist all over the place. He plays a position of need around the league, has a well-rounded game, and at 19 still has good upside. Atlanta has a lot of wings on rookie contracts, but we’re entering an era where I’m not sure you can have enough of them. Johnson will be an asset for someone next season.
9. Detroit Pistons — Romeo Langford, Indiana (scouting report)
Langford has had a roller coaster of a freshman season. The reports from NBA executives who went to Indiana to see him practice in the preseason weren’t particularly strong. Then, the season started, and Langford showed off a lot of what makes him such an interesting long-term player. He used his tremendous pace, high IQ and touch inside to get buckets. Throw in that he showed a lot of defensive growth under Archie Miller from his prep days, and many thought that Langford had a chance to end up around the top five if he could start shooting it consistently. But now he’s in the midst of hitting a freshman wall during Indiana’s toughest part of the schedule, and his inability to shoot it has caused difficulty for the rest of the offense.
Ultimately, Langford’s jump shot is the biggest swing skill for any player in this class. If you think he can overhaul the jumper mechanics and become a better shooter from distance—that potential exists due to the obvious touch he possesses—then I understand thinking he’s a terrific prospect with the upside of a high-level starter. If you don’t, it’s hard to see what his role is in the NBA, given that his offensive game breaks down a bit against athletic players. Because he’s a wing who has shown baseline defensive skill at 19 and potential offensive upside, that gives him real value for the Pistons, who badly need depth and help on the perimeter.
10. Washington Wizards — Nassir Little, North Carolina (scouting report)
Little has turned it on recently, scoring in double-figures against Virginia Tech, Miami (Fla.) and Notre Dame. He’s figuring things out after a tough start to the season. His athleticism, length and power are still a high-level skill combination that allows him to produce. Defensively, he’s shown growth this season on the ball. At the prep level, he showed high-level pull-up shooting potential. At 6-foot-7 with a 7-foot-1 wingspan and legitimate explosiveness, it’s easy to see why evaluators (such as myself) fell in love.
But while his time at North Carolina has been riddled with questions about the way he’s being utilized, it’s also worth evaluating the merits of his play. At times, he looks as if he has no idea where to be when he’s away from the ball defensively. Offensively, his jumper hasn’t fallen, and he hasn’t been particularly useful as a passer. His feel for the game just hasn’t been particularly strong. That has given evaluators a lot of pause and caused his stock around the league to fall a bit. Still, my bet is that he goes in the lottery. His upside is still that of an NBA starter if things come together. He’d fit well next to Otto Porter in a modern frontcourt, if Porter isn’t moved within the next six months.
11. New Orleans Pelicans — Rui Hachimura, Gonzaga (scouting report)
I think I’d still pick Hachimura to go first among the Gonzaga guys, in large part due to his mix of offensive ability, athleticism and frame. He’s been incredibly productive this season, averaging 20 points, six rebounds and two assists with an absurd 59.5/43.5/75.6 shooting line. Those numbers have only been matched by three other collegians in a season over the last 25 years. Throw in that Hachimura is still learning and adjusting to the language and culture—even if things are MUCH better than they’ve been over the course of the previous two years—and it’s easy to believe there’s real upside here.
The questions revolve around two things. First, will the jumper translate to the next level? It’s flat and has a bit of a hitch, meaning there’s some work to do on it even if the percentage is strong. Second, his defense has been questionable this season. His feet aren’t terrific on the perimeter, and he sometimes seems a step slow to react. This is slightly higher than I’d have him on my board. But there are a few factors that will push him up the board on draft night. He’ll be an All-American on a team that expects to go far in the NCAA Tournament. And as Japan’s great hope in basketball and with the 2020 Olympics in Tokyo looming, there’s a high-level marketing opportunity. At the very least, that’ll help him stand out in a crowded mass of players in the teens.
12. Minnesota Timberwolves — Kevin Porter Jr., USC
From a pure talent perspective, Porter is among the best in this class. Realistically, I think you can make a case for him in the top four. But he’s struggled to stay on the floor. He missed about seven weeks due to an upper leg contusion. Unscientifically and off the top of my head, that might be the most time any player in history has ever missed with such an injury. Then he was suspended by USC following its game against Oregon State for a buildup of internal-conduct incidents over the course of the season.
Even when he’s been on the floor, Porter’s inconsistency against solid teams has been maddening. He had 15 points against Texas Tech and 14 against Vanderbilt, then had zero points and three turnovers against Arizona State and five points against Oregon State. And yet the talent is readily apparent to everyone who scouts for a living. He can get separation on just about any defender with advanced, reactionary moves off the bounce and explosively finish above the rim. Teams will need to do their due diligence, and will need to go into this having a plan both on and off the floor to help Porter reach his ceiling.
Porter isn’t just a home run swing; he’s Adam Dunn circa 2004 taking his longest swing for the fences. The ball might go 500 feet, or it might end up in the catcher’s mitt with a gust of wind from the bat directed toward the pitcher’s mound. But there is a reason that more players around baseball have tried to add loft to their swings over the last three years and be willing to accept the accompanying strikeout numbers: The positive outcomes outweigh the potential negative ones. Porter’s talent gives him the kind of ceiling outcome that it’s worth the risk of striking out.
13. Boston Celtics (via SAC) — KZ Okpala, Stanford (scouting report)
The Celtics have had a lot of success in recent years developing young athletic, shot-making wings. Okpala is another swing for upside, as the 19-year-old is a 6-foot-9 forward with a 7-foot-2 wingspan who can attack the basket with a tight handle off the catch and can knock down shots from distance. He’s averaging 17.6 points, six rebounds and 2.2 assists for the Cardinal just a year after struggling as a freshman. He has turned his potential into production in a big way. From speaking with teams about him, this might be just a touch high (he’s seen more as a top-20 guy right now), but my guess is that as we get deeper into draft season, teams will be taken with his work ethic and natural talent level when they bring him in to work out.
14. Los Angeles Lakers — Jaxson Hayes, Texas (scouting report)
The Lakers are going to look very different next season. That feels like a pretty safe assumption. Heck, there’s no guarantee that they even hang on to this pick. But if they do, I love the idea of selecting Hayes as their long-term answer at center. At 6-11 with a 7-4 wingspan, he’s been one of the biggest risers of draft season due to what he’s accomplished for Texas. No other center prospect in this class can match his combination of length, leaping explosiveness, fluidity and potential. He’s a terrific interior defender, could slide out on the perimeter long-term, finishes far above the rim and even has some potential to put the ball on the floor in short-roll situations.
The concerns are that he’s not necessarily the most polished player and that he’s still got some holes to fix. He’s overaggressive to a fault on defense, resulting in regular foul trouble. Also, it pushes him out of rebounding position, something he’ll need to work on with a talented big-man coach. Still, it’s rare to find an athlete like this at his size. My guess is that a team in the lottery figures that they can learn how to fix some of the faults that plague him at 19.
15. Charlotte Hornets — Tre Jones, Duke
Jones fits the mold of what the Hornets look for in a prospect. They tend to take more proven players with higher college profiles. Run back through history and check out their selections. Frank Kaminsky, Cody Zeller, Miles Bridges, Malik Monk, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, even Kemba Walker. All of them had a high degree of success in college, through team success in the cases of Kidd-Gilchrist and Walker, or individual honors such as the ones Kaminsky, Bridges and Zeller won. I don’t say that as a negative statement. There are worse things to look for than collegiate success.
Jones fits the billing. He is a terrific prospect at the lead guard position. He’s arguably the best defensive guard at the point of attack in the country, a pest who keys Duke’s top-10 defense with toughness and aggressiveness. On offense, he’s a terrific distributor who rarely makes mistakes and makes sure that all of his teammates are involved. The big question is the jump shot, which could limit his ceiling as a scorer if it never fully develops. But my guess is that it comes along at some point, and Jones turns into a solid starting point guard.
16. Miami Heat — Sekou Doumbouya, Limoges
A decorated player for youth French national teams, Doumbouya has struggled in his first season in the top tier of French pro basketball. Coming off the bench for Limoges (which plays in both the Elite French league and Eurocup competitions), he features a jumper that isn’t quite there, and his offensive feel is still developing. He doesn’t look out of place, but he’s not quite making an impact either, averaging just six points and three rebounds in 15 minutes per night. In my opinion, he’s not ready for the NBA next season. If the team that picks him decided to start his contract in 2019 instead of stashing him overseas, there would be a real chance that he’d become a “second draft” candidate who succeeds somewhere else other than the franchise that drafted him.
Having said that, he just turned 18 and will be among the youngest players ever selected in the one-and-done era if he does enter this draft. He’s 6-8 with a near-7-foot wingspan and possesses terrific athleticism and body control for a player his size. To me, he profiles more as a role player with the upside of a starter with defensive versatility. At some point, I think he reaches that point. But to get there, he’ll need to improve as a shooter.
17. Brooklyn Nets — Jontay Porter, Missouri (scouting report)
Porter is out with a torn ACL suffered in the preseason, but his stock hasn’t really taken a hit among NBA executives. He’s still seen as an extremely interesting offensive prospect with a terrific feel for the game. His jumper is a legitimate weapon out to the NBA 3-point line, his passing is superb and he has smart instincts on the defensive end. The questions revolve around his athleticism. Even before the injury, scouts questioned whether he was athletic enough to succeed on the defensive end at the NBA level when left on islands with guards. He has soft feet and good footwork, but he’s not particularly quick.
Brooklyn would seem to be one of the teams willing to take a chance that the instincts outweigh the athleticism problems on defense. His offensive game is tailor-made for the Nets’ scheme, which revolves heavily around knocking down shots and making good, crisp passes off of advanced reads in pick-and-roll. His short roll game would give them something a bit different than what they have in Jarrett Allen, who is more of a full roller to the basket. Still, the medical checks will be important and will determine Porter’s stock once NBA doctors get their hands on the paperwork.
18. Utah Jazz — Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Virginia Tech
The Jazz tend to value high-IQ, skilled players on the perimeter. Because of that, Alexander-Walker would potentially be a nice long-term fit in the backcourt with Donovan Mitchell. His ability to shoot it both off of the dribble and off the catch is terrific, and he can serve as a secondary ball-handler who can run pick-and-roll action, allowing Mitchell to slide off of the ball. Alexander-Walker has had a breakout sophomore season, averaging 17.5 points, 4.2 rebounds and 3.8 assists while shooting at a ridiculous 53.2/41.7/79.7 clip. He’s not necessarily an elite athlete and his defense can be hit-or-miss, but at 6-5 with great length it’ll be harder to take advantage of him defensively than it would be against other guards. He profiles extremely well as a role player working off of a star initiator on the wing.
19. Boston Celtics (via LAC) — Brandon Clarke, Gonzaga (scouting report)
Clarke is one of the toughest prospects in this draft to peg. It’s easy to make a case that he has been among the best players in college basketball this season. He’s averaging 16.3 points, 7.7 rebounds and three blocks per game while shooting a ridiculous 69.6 percent from the field. He’s one of the best defenders in the game, with the lateral quickness to slide with guards on the perimeter, the recovery speed to make up for when he’s beaten, and terrific timing and explosiveness to block shots at the basket from the weak side. I believe he’s been one of the five most valuable players in the country.
But what will be his role at the next level? He gets just about all of his offensive production from being more athletic than everyone on the floor. He’s a poor shooter from distance — although he’s working to improve that. He has a better handle than you’d think, possessing a terrific spin move when attacking and a good floater package, but he isn’t quite a perimeter threat. Is there enough there to get by playing him at the 4? Does he need to be a five? It probably depends on who drafts him. The frontcourt pairing with Clarke will have to involve a three and a five who can shoot so that teams can maintain optimal spacing around him in order to get the most out of him. If anyone can figure out how to do that, the Celtics are a great bet.
20. San Antonio Spurs — Eric Paschall, Villanova
Paschall had a great summer, as he was the best performer at Nike Basketball Academy after an NCAA Tournament in which he was arguably the best player consistently for Villanova’s national champion. Then, something funny happened at the start of the year: People forgot about him (myself included) as the Wildcats started slowly while dealing with its influx of youth. But look up now, and all Paschall is doing is putting up nearly 17 points, six rebounds and two assists. In Big East play, he’s been even more absurd, posting 20.5 points, and eight rebounds. It’s hard for NBA teams to find the intersection of athleticism, power and skill that Paschall possesses at 6-foot-7 and 250 pounds with solid length. He can play the three and the four and has the potential to guard the five in some situations at the next level. I’m a believer that he’ll hear his name called in the first round. In this case, the Spurs are the beneficiary as a team that certainly does its homework and will find a way to use Paschall.
21. Houston Rockets — Bol Bol, Oregon (scouting report)
As we’ve learned over the last couple of weeks, the Rockets aren’t particularly deep in the front court. This one is a pretty obvious match. General manager Daryl Morey is a bit of a gambler and willing to take a chance on upside. The scheme fit is terrific, as Bol is a terrific shooter from distance who could form a great pick-and-roll pairing with the Houston guards. He’s also an impressive ball-handler for his size with the ability to grab and go on the break. It was no accident that Bol averaged 21 points and 9.6 rebounds while shooting more than 50 percent from the field and from 3 during his nine college games. He’s remarkably skilled as a scorer.
But this is lower than where most executives have Bol. Why? Three reasons. First, the navicular bone injury in Bol’s foot that will keep him out for the season has some NBA executives worried — before seeing the medical documentation on his injury. The track record with regard to the injury is mixed, with players such as Joel Embiid and Marc Gasol having returned at high levels, and guys such as Yao Ming, Curtis Borchardt and Zydrunas Ilgauskas suffering complications. It’s all speculation until doctors see the foot and see the results of the surgery.
Second, even before the injury, Bol’s defense in space was something resembling a train wreck. In today’s NBA, that’s a big question mark for the center position. Finally, teams still do have apprehensions about Bol off the floor. Reports on his work ethic haven’t been great going back to high school, although scouts seemed to come away with a slightly better impression when they saw him in Eugene. Bol is another home run swing for a team. If it works, he can become an offensive force and be an NBA starter. If it doesn’t, Bol could be out of the league within four years. My guess is that all the question marks push him down the board on draft day.
22. Portland Trail Blazers — Jalen McDaniels, San Diego State
McDaniels had a bit of a hit-or-miss start to the season, but he’s been an absolute force in Mountain West play. Through six games, he’s posting 21.2 points, 10.3 rebounds, two assists and 1.7 steals per game while shooting 57 percent from the field. He seems to have turned a corner for the Aztecs, going from inconsistent offensively to true No. 1 option and all-league player. Throw in that he moves his feet exceedingly well on defense and consistently plays hard, and you have a fascinating prospect who has a chance to make an impact at the four. The key to his game will come in the form of his jumper, which still hasn’t quite found its consistency. But in the 20s, I’m happy to take a chance on fixing that and getting everything else he brings to the table as a driver from the mid-post, multi-positional defender and rebounder.
The Blazers could really use help at the four position with Al-Farouq Aminu entering free agency and the team lacking depth behind him.
23. Oklahoma City Thunder — PJ Washington, Kentucky
Oklahoma City tends to like younger, long athletes who can affect the game in a variety of ways. Washington fits the bill of what the Thunder are looking for to a T from their rotation players. Imagine him as a second-chance opportunity at the failed Patrick Patterson signing, even down to the school each of them play or played at. Washington is an interesting 6-foot-8 power forward with a 7-foot-3 wingspan who plays a tough style of basketball. But where the Patterson comparison is even more apt is with Washington’s developed ability to shoot it from the perimeter. He’s knocking down 37 percent from distance on two attempts per game, showcasing much more refined mechanics and footwork. He’d pair nicely between Steven Adams and Paul George as a starter if the rest of his game develops, or even off the bench in weird small-ball lineups with Jerami Grant.
24. Boston Celtics — Luguentz Dort, Arizona State (scouting report)
Dort has been particularly bad since the calendar turned to 2019, with teams figuring out how to slow down his drives into the paint. And yet I’m just not sure there has ever been a more Celtics-y prospect. He’s a tough, thick-chested guard who might be strongest pound-for-pound player in the class. Defensively, he really gets after it on the ball. He’s kind of like Marcus Smart in the way he utilizes his toughness and physicality against players big and small. The big difference is that Smart was a true lead guard who had ball skills and passing ability, whereas Dort is still developing those aspects of his game. Evaluators believe Dort would still land in Round One if he declares, but the excitement is much more muted surrounding him than it was earlier this season. He needs a strong close to make up for the middle part of the season.
25. Philadelphia 76ers — Coby White, North Carolina
The 76ers badly need shooting. They need someone who can come in next to Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid—and Jimmy Butler if he re-signs this summer—and knock down shots. Enter White, a terrific pull-up shooter with size at 6-foot-5 who would be a perfect developmental guard to pair with someone such as Simmons in the backcourt. Like Simmons, he can run the floor and get out on the break. His speed and quickness are distinct positives and would add to the speed of a team that likes to run. White is more combo guard than lead guard, and some executives see him more as a long-term bench scorer than a starter. Defensively, he has quick feet but is still figuring out how to play against high-level athletes. It’s possible he goes higher than this given that the guard class is something of an “eye-of-the-beholder” situation.
26. Indiana Pacers — Grant Williams, Tennessee
Williams, like Clarke, is a strange anomalous college player. Unquestionably, he’d be a first team All-American for Tennessee, averaging 20.2 points, 7.3 rebounds and 3.7 assists while shooting 57 percent from the field. As I’ve noted, every player at a high-major school who has posted such insane production has been a first-round pick, so Williams should be no different. But the questions are definitely real. He’s not an athlete by NBA standards. At 6-6, 240 pounds, he’s undersized for the forward positions. He’s also not a particularly great shooter.
But at the end of the day, he’s a super smart player whose basketball IQ is off the charts. His touch around the basket is terrific and gives scouts reason to believe—along with his improvement this season—that he could become a shooter in time. Defensively, he does a good job using angles and his powerful frame to slow offensive players. He’s someone I’ll probably have higher on my board than where he ends up being selected. He’d fit in nicely with the eclectic group of two-way players in Indiana.
27. Brooklyn Nets (via DEN) — Ashton Hagans, Kentucky
Along with Tre Jones, Hagans has a case as the best point-of-attack defender in the country. He’s an absolute pest against lead guards because of his quickness and hand-eye coordination. His 4.9 percent steal rate is in the top 10 nationally, and he changes games with his ability to slow offenses from initiating their actions and create transition opportunities for his team. Athletically, he’s all sorts of quick-twitch.
And yet there are real concerns about his offense. He’s a poor shooter, hitting just 17 percent from 3. He’s a reluctant driver in half-court settings and doesn’t get a ton of shots at the basket. He makes a ton of plays for others, averaging 5.5 assists per game in SEC play. But he turns it over at a rate that’s a bit too high. To contrast him with Williams, my guess is that I’ll have Hagans a bit lower on my board than where he gets drafted. For the Nets, though, he’s the kind of terrific culture fit and leader they value, and they could use a pest defensively off the bench to pair with Spencer Dinwiddie or D’Angelo Russell.
28. Golden State Warriors — Killian Tillie, Gonzaga
Let’s call this one an intuition. Tillie has only played six games this season after coming back from injury and isn’t starting as the Zags figure out what their rotation should look like come NCAA Tournament time in the preseason-like malaise known as “the WCC conference slate.” But we already saw what Tillie is capable of last season. He’s a terrific shooter from distance, a great passer for a 6-10 big man and a smart defender who can move in space and contest at the rim. His smart skill set is quite similar to that of Jonas Jerebko, who is making a positive impact for the Warriors as a role player. It’s easy to see how that organization would fall in love with the well-rounded skill set Tillie possesses, giving Gonzaga three forwards in the first round of this mock draft.
29. San Antonio Spurs (via TOR) — Bruno Fernando, Maryland
Fernando helped himself by going through the draft process last year, going to the combine, getting feedback and implementing it into his game. He’s turned into a terrific defensive rebounder, a solid passer for a big man and a threat as a rim protector. It also helps that he continues to flash the outlines of a solid 16-foot jumper. He’d fit in nicely with the Spurs, who have an older front line outside of Jakob Poeltl yet still value the contributions of true big men inside. Given his terrific 14.6 points, 10.3 rebounds, two assists and two blocks a game, my bet is he’ll go higher on draft day than he’ll be placed on my board. Defensively, he needs to keep fine-tuning his ability to move his feet and space and react to what’s happening around him in rotation on defense. But he’s also known as a tremendous, insatiable worker who continually tries to improve his game. There’s certainly reason to bet on him figuring it out.
30. Milwaukee Bucks — Daniel Gafford, Arkansas (scouting report)
The Bucks tend to value length and athleticism. Their center position is in a more tenuous position after this season than you’d think. Brook Lopez has been superb, but he’ll be a free agent who could be in line for a nice payday. Thon Maker recently requested a trade. Christian Wood has been one of the most productive centers in the G-League in years, but for whatever reason can’t quite crack the center rotation. The team moved John Henson in part for salary relief. Gafford would fit nicely as a developmental piece along with the team’s current core due to his tremendous rim-running ability and weak side defensive prowess inside. It’s been kind of a weird year for him, as he has been miscast as a primary post option for Arkansas instead of a role player simply due to a lack of talent around him. Still, if teams believe they can work with him on sliding his feet on the perimeter, Gafford should be a nice rotation player.
|
#
?
Jan 4, 2019 18:55
