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Escobarbarian
Jun 18, 2004

an idol an idol an idol an idol an idol an idol an idol an idol an idol an idol an idol an idol an idol an idol an idol an idol an idol an idol



Grimey Drawer

PostNouveau posted:

lol just noticed in the episode with Livia's wake when Janice herds everyone into the sitting room to try to say good things about her, someone comes down the stairs in the background, sees what's going on, and goes back up the loving stairs to get away from it.

"Nope!"


I always thought this was another ghostly figure in that episode like Pussy in the mirror but Chase said in the book that it was just this. Which is a little disappointing tbh!

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Dawgstar
Jul 15, 2017



PostNouveau posted:

The episode where Christopher gets made and then keeps loving up gambling:

I don't think I get sports betting. I know bookies set the line and move it around as the game gets closer to generate as many bets as possible. But I don't know how they make money off that.

They actually have to have smarter positions than the bettors and are thus exposed to risk or do they take a small percentage off the action?

The percentage you're talking about is what you've heard as the vig or juice (vigorish for the full word) and is what the bookie gets to keep regardless of who wins and loses. Here's a good explanation I'm pasting from Reddit:

quote:

Usually bookies "balance" their bets. They try to keep the action even on both sides (IE Notre Dame and their opponent) and then just take a ~10% cut on both sides. Like a stock broker taking a minor commission buying or selling stock for you. The stock broker doesn't care if you win or lose, just that you keep trading through him.

Unfortunately, it is sometimes hard to get both sides to be even. That's why there are "points" IE - Notre Dame has to win by 7 etc. But that doesn't even work sometimes. For example if you live in Texas, people are going to bet on the Cowboys no matter how many points you take.

So what bookies do is "lay off bets - you heard them say this in the episode. For example, SF plays New York. In SF, San Francisco is overbought, whereas in New York, NY is overbet. So the bookies in both places will "lay off" bets and trade bets to ensure both sides are even. SF trades SF bets to NY and vice versa.

What Christopher did is not lay off. Instead of just sitting back and taking his ~10% he took a position. He naively got greedy, didn't lay off the Notre Dame bets, essentially betting on Notre Dame himself. This is like a drug dealer taking drugs from his own stash (Something Chris also does)

Vichan
Oct 1, 2014

I'LL PUNISH YOU ACCORDING TO YOUR CRIME

Dawgstar posted:

The percentage you're talking about is what you've heard as the vig or juice (vigorish for the full word) and is what the bookie gets to keep regardless of who wins and loses. Here's a good explanation I'm pasting from Reddit:

Holy poo poo, that puts Paulie's beef with Christopher into perspective, I never knew this!

Solice Kirsk
Jun 1, 2004

.



What? I always thought the odds were where they made most of their money. You have to pay more to win less if you're betting on the favorite.

Dawgstar
Jul 15, 2017



Solice Kirsk posted:

What? I always thought the odds were where they made most of their money. You have to pay more to win less if you're betting on the favorite.

I mean, you can do it like that, like Chris did but as Christopher shows that's a gamble which means you can lose. Consistent income off a large number of bettors is a lot more reliable than hoping for a jackpot.

As to the other question if bookies have any special information (and we're not counting things like fixing a game, no, they don't. They do tend to obsessively pour over stats and such to make sure they're leveraging everything they can so they're on the 'right' side, as shown by Chris not bothering to check that the one team had an ace kicker who could easily beat the spread.

PostNouveau
Sep 3, 2011

Why god?



Grimey Drawer

Dawgstar posted:

The percentage you're talking about is what you've heard as the vig or juice (vigorish for the full word) and is what the bookie gets to keep regardless of who wins and loses. Here's a good explanation I'm pasting from Reddit:

OK yeah, this clears it up, thanks. So doing it correctly, Christopher should have equal money on both sides of the bet, skim 10% off the total bets, and not give a gently caress who wins the games.


Escobarbarian posted:

I always thought this was another ghostly figure in that episode like Pussy in the mirror but Chase said in the book that it was just this. Which is a little disappointing tbh!

Oh, I hadn't thought about that. The comedic timing of it is really good.

Ishamael
Feb 18, 2004

You don't have to love me, but you will respect me.

Pope Corky the IX posted:

From the r/relationships thread...

My [24/f] fiance [33/m] has gotten way too into The Sopranos...


I lost it at the orange juice part.

I missed this and just caught it. I know it's probably fake but I sure hope it is real.

HONEY COME BACK, I SAID SOME PULP! GET IT?? IT'S A RETIREMENT COMMUNITY!

Dawgstar
Jul 15, 2017



PostNouveau posted:

OK yeah, this clears it up, thanks. So doing it correctly, Christopher should have equal money on both sides of the bet, skim 10% off the total bets, and not give a gently caress who wins the games.

Right. Take enough bets to make good money - and on big games you absolutely can make good money while still laying some bets off - but not so much he'd go in the hole in the case of a team beating the points spread (which happened). And he really did just get greedy, possibly with Paulie's '6 points a week and that being a lot or a little' still ringing in his ears.

pentyne
Nov 7, 2012

I posted a 7 point defense of corporate wage theft because my brain is full of worms.

Dawgstar posted:

Right. Take enough bets to make good money - and on big games you absolutely can make good money while still laying some bets off - but not so much he'd go in the hole in the case of a team beating the points spread (which happened). And he really did just get greedy, possibly with Paulie's '6 points a week and that being a lot or a little' still ringing in his ears.

Paulie was also certainly squeezing Chris for waaaaay more then he was telling Tony.

Dawgstar
Jul 15, 2017



pentyne posted:

Paulie was also certainly squeezing Chris for waaaaay more then he was telling Tony.

Oh, sure. And he was probably also shorting Tony's cut. In fact I think down the line Tony even says as much.

PostNouveau
Sep 3, 2011

Why god?



Grimey Drawer

pentyne posted:

Paulie was also certainly squeezing Chris for waaaaay more then he was telling Tony.

I got that impression too. Chris runs around town pawning poo poo and beating people up to make the $8,000 he owes Paulie (up from $6,000 because he couldn't make it the first day), and then Paulie takes it to Tony and says they had a very good week, which makes you think the original $4,000 Chris paid him wasn't that light at all.

pentyne
Nov 7, 2012

I posted a 7 point defense of corporate wage theft because my brain is full of worms.

Dawgstar posted:

Oh, sure. And he was probably also shorting Tony's cut. In fact I think down the line Tony even says as much.

Silvio says it outright, guys like Paulie never kick up their real cut, its a part of the game you have to pretend isnt happening for long term success.

The feast is a good example, Paulie is whining and moaning about how expensive it is and Tony just casually says "if its not working as a business then drop it" and when Paulie comes back at him with saying Tony gets a huge cut Tony just looks and him and Paulie backs off real quick.

Suxpool
Nov 20, 2002
I want something good to die for...to make it beautiful to live

everything is always about money, and there's a hustle at every step of the way. what incentive does anyone in organized crime have to ever kick up what they're supposed to?

of all the guys in the show i think the only one we ever see never involved in some sort of hustle or lie to get more than what they have is Silvio

Pattonesque
Jul 14, 2004
johnny jesus and the infield fly rule

https://twitter.com/scumbelievable/...059486515773440

BiggerBoat
Sep 26, 2007

For that you get the head...

the tail...

the whole damned thing.

^^^WHOA. Good catch^^^

RE: Bookies


Yes, the trick is to set the line/point spread to get equal action on both sides, ideally at 50/50, and then just take your skim or whatever it's called for placing the action so you make 5 or 10% or whatever they earn to take the bet, regardless of who wins the game/match/fight. That's the entire point of a point spread. If people start betting on the favorite, the line goes DOWN. If they bet the underdog, the line goes UP. You want equal bets on both sides so you just take your juice and call it a day. Then there's the matter of collecting of course.

(Good) Bookies don't give a rat's rear end who wins or loses so long as they get equal bets on each team, which is what the point spread is there for or, say, odds on a boxing match. I think the same general principle works on the poker games they host where the house just gets a cut for hosting the game but I've been wrong about that before so maybe someone can clarify that.

Chris' mistake was that he was actually sort of gambling himself and ignoring this rule by taking unbalanced bets in favor of one team since he thought he knew who would really win, which is not how you make money booking bets. Ask Vegas.

BiggerBoat fucked around with this message at 22:06 on Jun 30, 2020

Vichan
Oct 1, 2014

I'LL PUNISH YOU ACCORDING TO YOUR CRIME


I swear, this show...

Ten years from now we'll still be discovering new poo poo.

PostNouveau
Sep 3, 2011

Why god?



Grimey Drawer

Blazing through this show (ah quarantine). I'm noticing a lot of stuff that I thought was spread out over a bunch of episodes was often just one episode. Just finished one with two storylines I remembered really well: Meadow's crazy roommate's problems reveal that her boyfriend's a douchebag and Ralphie goes psycho on his stripper girlfriend who was trying to befriend Tony. Two in one episode! Or the sports store bust out took place over 2 episodes or the lovely band Adrianna wanted to launch (just one episode).

I don't know if the storylines stuck so well because they're really good, or because the semi-serialized nature of the show is better. A lot of prestige TV these days would draw this poo poo out. You woulda been loving sick of Meadow's crazy roommate 4 episodes into a 10-episode season if the show was made in 2020.

Dawgstar
Jul 15, 2017



I had forgotten about Meadow's roommate and her issues and I think the last we see of her is talking about how cool X is.

PostNouveau
Sep 3, 2011

Why god?



Grimey Drawer

My one knock on the show is: not enough Furio

codo27
Apr 21, 2008

"I dont fully understand football contracts but you can just be outright cut if you're shit right? With no penalties? Hockey needs that."

I Am Marc Bergevin IRL


For those who haven't tuned in to the podcast, Imperioli didn't have a license (at 31) at the genesis of the show, which includes him driving Tony in the pilot. He crashed the Lexus backing it up

PostNouveau
Sep 3, 2011

Why god?



Grimey Drawer

Good callback: In the pilot or some early episode, Melfi tells Tony if he wants to be a better mobster, he should read The Art of War. In the late Season 3 episode where he's banging another of her patients, she suspects it and tells him his new philosophies seem to have an Eastern flavor (implying he learned Buddhism from her other patient) and he tells her "yeah, Sun Tzu, I told you about him". A perfect bit of narcissistic reframing.

Jerusalem
May 20, 2004

Would you be my new best friends?


codo27 posted:

For those who haven't tuned in to the podcast, Imperioli didn't have a license (at 31) at the genesis of the show, which includes him driving Tony in the pilot. He crashed the Lexus backing it up

If I remember right, they told him,"Well.... if we get picked up, you better have your license!"

PostNouveau posted:

Good callback: In the pilot or some early episode, Melfi tells Tony if he wants to be a better mobster, he should read The Art of War. In the late Season 3 episode where he's banging another of her patients, she suspects it and tells him his new philosophies seem to have an Eastern flavor (implying he learned Buddhism from her other patient) and he tells her "yeah, Sun Tzu, I told you about him". A perfect bit of narcissistic reframing.

gently caress. gently caress. I wish I had noticed that.

Jack2142
Jul 17, 2014

Shitposting in Seattle



You know, the reading Sun Tzu is really 90's, now I feel like it would be Marcus Aurelius's Meditations and now I wonder how Tony would butcher stoicism.

Jack2142 fucked around with this message at 05:27 on Jul 1, 2020

Vichan
Oct 1, 2014

I'LL PUNISH YOU ACCORDING TO YOUR CRIME

Jack2142 posted:

You know, the reading Sun Tzu is really 90's, now I feel like it would be Marcus Aurelius's Meditations and now I wonder how Tony would butcher stoicism.

I wonder how Paulie would butcher the name.

Marco Oreolus

Jerusalem
May 20, 2004

Would you be my new best friends?


I can absolutely see Tony adoring Aurelius' talk about keeping yourself motivated, haranguing AJ about it etc, but still sleeping in till 3pm each day.

JethroMcB
Jan 23, 2004

We're normal now.
We love your family.


Ralphie would be really into it until he realized it wasn't simply a novelization of Gladiator

PostNouveau
Sep 3, 2011

Why god?



Grimey Drawer

Alright, I think David Chase is right about leaving what happened to the Russian in the Pine Barrens a mystery.

But I gotta know what he's yelling before he takes the shovel to Chrissy and Paulie. It's impossible to find a translation because if you google it, you get 800 articles speculating about what happened to the guy.

Pope Corky the IX
Dec 18, 2006

What are you looking at?

My girlfriend is Russian, give me a bit and Iíll find out.

EDIT: She was a big help during the third and fourth seasons of Oz because they never used subtitles on the show.

Pope Corky the IX fucked around with this message at 07:07 on Jul 2, 2020

phasmid
Jan 16, 2015

Booty Shaker
SILENT MAJORITY


PostNouveau posted:

Good callback: In the pilot or some early episode, Melfi tells Tony if he wants to be a better mobster, he should read The Art of War. In the late Season 3 episode where he's banging another of her patients, she suspects it and tells him his new philosophies seem to have an Eastern flavor (implying he learned Buddhism from her other patient) and he tells her "yeah, Sun Tzu, I told you about him". A perfect bit of narcissistic reframing.

Yeah, I missed this one too. So that's another point in the column of "Tony may actually have a personality disorder"? They allude to it sometimes but I never think they said antisocial, borderline or anything outside of the context with Melfi and her therapist.

PostNouveau
Sep 3, 2011

Why god?



Grimey Drawer

phasmid posted:

Yeah, I missed this one too. So that's another point in the column of "Tony may actually have a personality disorder"? They allude to it sometimes but I never think they said antisocial, borderline or anything outside of the context with Melfi and her therapist.

When she suggests behavioral cognitive therapy in Season 3, she tells him it works on people who are anti-social, but she doesn't lay down that diagnosis or what it means on him.

RYYSZLA
May 11, 2013


phasmid posted:

Yeah, I missed this one too. So that's another point in the column of "Tony may actually have a personality disorder"? They allude to it sometimes but I never think they said antisocial, borderline or anything outside of the context with Melfi and her therapist.

Longtime thread lurker first time thread poster

Have I missed something? I thought the general consensus was that despite whatever original court order puts tony soprano in that therapy room, he continues to go because he & his therapist, Dr. Melfi recognise that he has significant personality disorders. Not that they would've gone that in depth into the psychoanalysis in the early 00s but im pretty sure anxiety and panic attacks the way tony had them are highly comorbid with many serotonin-affecting disorders.

Of course take this with a grain (or spoonful) of salt, i'm no expert.

Pope Corky the IX
Dec 18, 2006

What are you looking at?

Tony wasnít ordered by a court to go to therapy, Melfi was recommended by Cusamano.

RYYSZLA
May 11, 2013


Pope Corky the IX posted:

Tony wasnít ordered by a court to go to therapy, Melfi was recommended by Cusamano.

Ok, I rewatched recently and was under a different impression but then I may just have been confirmation biasing myself.

Whether he was court ordered there or reccomended is the point, I think it's pretty self-explanatory that someone having anxiety & panic attacks has some kind of disorder triggering them usually.

Jerusalem
May 20, 2004

Would you be my new best friends?


Tony has a panic attack and when they can't find anything physically wrong with him (apart from being overweight) he is recommended a therapist and, in spite of his own reservations, he agrees to go.

Even from their first session, it's clear there are going to be major problems on both their ends if they try to have a Doctor/Patient relationship, but both see it as worth pursuing for different reasons. For Tony, it's a desire to "fix" whatever is wrong with him (and the assumption he can just throw money at the problem) as well as the relief of actually being able to vent and express his feelings in a safe environment in violation of being told his entire life to suppress everything both as a man as well as a criminal. For Melfi, it's at first an academic/intellectual curiosity and challenge, to not judge her patient and to attempt to set aside moral superiority and fulfill her duty as a psychologist to help a patient in need.

It all warps from there as the seasons progress, of course, but at its heart the relationship started as a patient who wanted to get better and a doctor who wanted to help him to do so. The fact he was a mobster couldn't be ignored, but at first they both thought they could set it aside and work on him just as a human being in need of help.

PostNouveau
Sep 3, 2011

Why god?



Grimey Drawer

RYYSZLA posted:

Not that they would've gone that in depth into the psychoanalysis in the early 00s but im pretty sure anxiety and panic attacks the way tony had them are highly comorbid with many serotonin-affecting disorders.

Melfi puts him on Lithium and Prozac at one point. I don't know if those are drugs that affect serotonin levels.

escape artist
Sep 24, 2005

Slow train coming


PostNouveau posted:

Melfi puts him on Lithium and Prozac at one point. I don't know if those are drugs that affect serotonin levels.

Prozac is a selective serontonin reuptake inhibitor.

PostNouveau
Sep 3, 2011

Why god?



Grimey Drawer

escape artist posted:

Prozac is a selective serontonin reuptake inhibitor.

Ah, OK.

I know jack poo poo about that stuff, but I believe in the show she's trying to treat his depression at that point, not any kind of personality disorder.

RYYSZLA
May 11, 2013


PostNouveau posted:

Ah, OK.

I know jack poo poo about that stuff, but I believe in the show she's trying to treat his depression at that point, not any kind of personality disorder.

Depression is a "personality disorder" in laymans terms, IIRC

codo27
Apr 21, 2008

"I dont fully understand football contracts but you can just be outright cut if you're shit right? With no penalties? Hockey needs that."

I Am Marc Bergevin IRL


Jer....Jerusalem....do you like pro wrestling?

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Pope Corky the IX
Dec 18, 2006

What are you looking at?

Don't you dare gently caress with Jay Roo.

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