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GalacticAcid posted:I don't understand why so many people are down on Keuchel. The projection models generally put him at 190+ innings with an ERA between 3.41 and 3.70. I don't think that kind of pitcher isn't the kind of guy they actually need if they're actually going to spend money on pitching. They need the top-end guy, and then they can fill it out with the farm guys who are much more likely to turn out to be No. 2 or 3 guys than No. 1 guys. There's not a bunch of No. 1 starters out there for sure, but patience makes more sense to me than just signing the only guy who is available. Regardless of the gigantic contract they gave out, the Padres aren't going to actually put a 160+MM payroll and someone like Keuchel only really works if you're actually gonna do that. (They SHOULD do that, they just aren't going to because Southern California is a sleepy market amirite) STAC Goat posted:People suck. I bet it's more likely those $300MM offers are somehow conditional (like the White Sox's offer as reported 8/250) or didn't have any opt-outs (I saw some writers valuing those opt-outs at something like $30+MM). But I think there is something to be said for the fact that in the current era, the teams in the market for an expensive long-term build-around like Bryce Harper and Manny Machado are not teams that are already good, so there could be something to the idea that the players are reluctant to sign with the teams making offers. The Machado to Padres deal makes a TON of sense (and I'm not just saying that as a diehard Padres fan), and I'm puzzled at the hot take machines spewing out that Manny only likes money and not winning when every team that was putting in effort to get him was bad and basically within a year or two of each other in terms of trying to complete a rebuild. Angry Grimace fucked around with this message at 20:54 on Feb 20, 2019 |
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Feb 20, 2019 20:43
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So has there been literally any movement in the markets for Kimbrel or Keuchel? Or Marwin/Gio Gonzalez?
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Feb 20, 2019 20:58
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mentholmoose posted:So has there been literally any movement in the markets for Kimbrel or Keuchel? Or Marwin/Gio Gonzalez? From what I heard, there's some interest in Gio, but his price tag is apparently kind of high for the kind of teams that have interest in an innings-eater. Then again, Wade Miley does the same thing and he got like 5M. Kimbrel wanted a 6-year deal at like 15M a year and nobody wants to give a reliever that kind of guarantee. Nobody really has any news on Keuchel because the narrative is 100% BRYCE HARPER ALL THE TIME. Marwin is one of those cases where I imagine teams view him as a utility guy and don't think they should have to pay a utility guy the kind of money his production numbers indicate he should get paid. That's just speculation though.
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Feb 20, 2019 21:05
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Tim Williams from Pirates Prospects asked Nutting about minor league pay & benefits, and got a surprisingly thoughtful but of course ultimately hollow response. Williams works pretty hard covering the minor league affiliates and it’s clear he cares about the guys he covers. Glad he could use his media access to put the question out there.
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Feb 20, 2019 21:24
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https://twitter.com/flippingbats/status/1098286634330738690
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Feb 20, 2019 21:26
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dear god
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Feb 20, 2019 21:32
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Ouchies.
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Feb 20, 2019 21:49
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Josh Harrison has signed a one year dear with the Tigers...thus maintaining the integrity of the Mercer-Harrison middle infield that's persisted since A ball on the 2009 Lynchburg Hillcats
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Feb 20, 2019 21:54
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Josh Harrison now my favorite player.
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Feb 20, 2019 21:57
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He's lost a step or two but god it rules when he really connects on one, such as this mastodon homer off of Kluber https://twitter.com/Pirates/status/1021573076235034624 I also think he had a nagging injury last year so hopefully he bounces back. Plus playing in a weaker division should help.
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Feb 20, 2019 22:02
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GalacticAcid posted:Someone mentioned putting up big numbers despite having a garbage surrounding lineup so thought I'd share this combined WAR total from 1999-2003, spanning Brian Giles's time with the Pirates in the heart of the darkest years: Now post Ricardo Rincon’s numbers 😫
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Feb 20, 2019 22:43
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Meet the teams thread is up. Go post about why your team is cool and good. Work is dead today so I also tried to make a funny Cubs post, but it slowly morphed from funny to depressing as I wrote it. 
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Feb 20, 2019 23:22
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Sydin posted:it slowly morphed from funny to depressing as I wrote it. That's how I feel I would view a writeup of the Cubs this offseason, too.
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Feb 20, 2019 23:41
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https://twitter.com/RobBiertempfel/status/1098342750527852545
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Feb 21, 2019 00:39
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Inspector_666 posted:N: https://twitter.com/JeffPassan/status/1098271705917739008 Nah, he was doing Elmo impersonations on Le Batard this morning.
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Feb 21, 2019 01:12
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Hello I would like my bad baseball team to give Bryce Harper lots of money please and thank you
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Feb 21, 2019 02:58
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Hell fuckin yea
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Feb 21, 2019 06:22
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The Nats $300 million offer to Harper apparently contained $100 mill of deferred money, sure sounds like Harper going back to the Nationals is not even close to happening anymore.quote:Sources told MLB.com on Wednesday that the Nationals have no plans to give Harper a mega-deal comparable to Machado’s 10-year, $300 million contract with the Padres, likely ending any chance for Washington’s longtime face of the franchise to remain with the club. The Nationals offered Harper a contract worth $300 million over 10 years before the end of the 2018 regular season. Harper and his agent Scott Boras rejected the deal. https://www.mlb.com/news/bryce-harper-remains-in-phillies-plans
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Feb 21, 2019 13:57
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mentholmoose posted:The Nats $300 million offer to Harper apparently contained $100 mill of deferred money, sure sounds like Harper going back to the Nationals is not even close to happening anymore. I dunno about you, but I'd take deferred money personally. More money in the long run? Seems more financially sound to me.
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Feb 21, 2019 15:26
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You have to do a net present day value calculation to see if that is true tho and you are also betting on the long run stability of baseball.
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Feb 21, 2019 15:28
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iospace posted:I dunno about you, but I'd take deferred money personally. More money in the long run? Seems more financially sound to me. You have to take all the money that they can make from investments and interest into account too. There's a reason why everyone takes the lump sum option when they win the Megamillions.
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Feb 21, 2019 15:29
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Not all deferred money is done like Bonilla, who in theory would still have made more money if he hadn't done it and had instead invested it up front
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Feb 21, 2019 15:38
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Kevlar v2.0 posted:You have to take all the money that they can make from investments and interest into account too. There's a reason why everyone takes the lump sum option when they win the Megamillions. You get more money with the annuity though in the long run? The lump sum is a (significant) fraction of total winnings, and at least with the annuity you have more money coming. Anyway, content: https://twitter.com/LeBatardShow/status/1098387811818967040?s=19
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Feb 21, 2019 15:58
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The lump sum probably has a greater net present value at moderate returns compared to the annuity I am extremely risk averse and would always take the annuity and then use low interest loans if I needed a large purchase/ Anyway! The Phillies should sign Harper now.
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Feb 21, 2019 16:00
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euphronius posted:The lump sum probably has a greater net present value at moderate returns compared to the annuity Does the annuity payout increase to keep up with inflation? If not it seems like you're better off taking the lump sum and just stashing it in a high-yield savings account.
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Feb 21, 2019 16:05
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Kevlar v2.0 posted:You have to take all the money that they can make from investments and interest into account too. There's a reason why everyone takes the lump sum option when they win the Megamillions. I really doubt that this is the thought process people make when they win the lottery. If they were approaching the situation from an optimization perspective they would be a whole lot more prudent with the cash once they got it.
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Feb 21, 2019 16:10
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It depends. The lump sum is more money in theory but that is discounting human behavior. The annuity makes it more likely you remain rich longer as a hedge against behavior.
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Feb 21, 2019 16:10
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Goodpancakes posted:It depends. The lump sum is more money in theory but that is discounting human behavior. The annuity makes it more likely you remain rich longer as a hedge against behavior. This is my reasoning
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Feb 21, 2019 16:12
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Goodpancakes posted:It depends. The lump sum is more money in theory but that is discounting human behavior. The annuity makes it more likely you remain rich longer as a hedge against behavior. aka: why more people don't just claim a higher number on their w-4s
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Feb 21, 2019 16:18
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The only reason the Bonilla stuff is even remotely funny is that a) the mets got scammed by Bernie Madeoff b) its the mets
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Feb 21, 2019 16:26
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I don’t know how strong a contract right you have in an annuity if the payor is the state so you might as well go lump sum to just have control regardless of NPV analysis Theoretically the contract right Harper would have against the Nats is stronger but the Nats and the league could realistically fold.
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Feb 21, 2019 16:29
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https://twitter.com/MLBPA_News/status/1098608757293178885
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Feb 21, 2019 16:44
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There's a reason they offer an annuity for much more than the lump sum in lotteries: they think they can make more money than the difference between the two numbers. You're probably better off just taking the lump sum and at least dumping it into a three-fund portfolio that you pull out of to give yourself a "salary." Or you get into a Family Office and have them manage the poo poo for you. That said, for athletes I can see the value in deferred money. When your job is to travel all the time, especially at a young age, it's super easy to burn money on poo poo you don't need. Having some significant security when your earning days are over and you're a little wiser is a pretty reasonable hedge. For every A-rod that dumped enough of his money into corporate real estate that he made as much from his business as he did from playing, there are 100 guys on the Broke 30 for 30 who throw their money away on bad investments and a gold-plated Hummer. This post brought to you by my shower thoughts the day after I buy a lottery ticket at the gas station from time to time.
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Feb 21, 2019 17:09
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MLB.TV spring training schedule is up: https://www.mlb.com/live-stream-games/springtraining There are two baseball games on TV tomorrow 
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Feb 21, 2019 17:32
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The Pussy Boss posted:There are two baseball games on TV tomorrow 
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Feb 21, 2019 17:34
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WHY IS THE FIRST GAME NOT BROADCAST ON TV??? I need baseball
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Feb 21, 2019 17:36
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One of them is the Tigers against a local college so you are not missing much Nobody plays in that game except maybe some prospects
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Feb 21, 2019 17:37
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I love when MLB teams play colleges in ST, it's great to see the Marlins getting crushed by Devry or whatever.
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Feb 21, 2019 17:45
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Popete posted:WHY IS THE FIRST GAME NOT BROADCAST ON TV??? One good thing that's supposed to come out of the Sinclair RSN fiasco is that they plan to broadcast all Cubs ST games, presumably starting next year.
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Feb 21, 2019 18:07
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They will do one spring, the ratings per game will be 30 and it won’t happen again.
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Feb 21, 2019 18:10
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