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Well Played Mauer
Jun 1, 2003

We'll always have Cabo
:siren: The 2019 New York Yankees :siren:



2018: 100-62, Pythag 99-63
The Yankees had a very good year that ultimately resulted in a 100-win team earning the third-best record in baseball and securing the first wildcard slot for the postseason. After they drubbed the A's in the play-in game, they ran into a juggernaut of a Red Sox team that went on to take home their third title in 11 years. The season was one of highs and lows. While Didi Gregorious had a scorching hot April, his May was equally cold; Giancarlo Stanton started the year with two homers in the first game, then went into a strikeout-laden slump, then got hot again and carried the Yanks while Judge was on the IL, then seemed to even out; Miguel Andujar and Gleyber Torres burst onto the scene and split RoY votes, but Gary Sanchez had a godawful sophomore slump; the team went on an amazing 20-3 run in May to draw comparisons to the '98 Yankees but got swept by Boston in August to effectively close out the AL East.

Ultimately, the team had shaky starting pitching and a feast-or-famine offense that was fun as hell to watch when everyone was clicking, but unbelievably frustrating when they failed yet again to drive in runners on base.

Owners: The Steinbrenners



Son of pro-labor baseball hero George Steinbrenner, Hal kicked off a strategy a number of years ago to push the team's payroll below the then luxury tax of $189 million. The pledge was once the Yanks got back below the tax threshold, the team would immediately go back over to secure mega free agents like Bryce Harper and Manny Machado. As of this writing, this has not been the case. It's left a fan base used to always being in contention for the biggest names and best players in the league befuddled, especially when the franchise is valued at more than $5 billion and just lost the division to their biggest rivals.

Hal is less publicly insane than his father, which I think we can all agree is a shame.

The Front Office



Brian Cashman takes a lot of poo poo from a contingent of Yankee fans that don't understand anything and should stop breathing. He's been responsible for the long national crisis that was the Yankees' six-week rebuild in 2016, routinely coming out ahead on trades, and has a fierce emoji game. While championships in the post-analytics era have been scarce for the Yankees, they've almost always been competitive, and I think a lot of that credit goes to him.

The Manager: Aaron Boone



Boone replaced Joe Girardi last year and was one of a cadre of first-time managers to enter the game with a stacked roster behind them. He was brought in to communicate with the millennials and his belief in advanced stats. I have yet to see him consult a binder. Overall, he doesn't seem particularly terrible (or any more terrible than your average manager) with game management, but came across as passive early in the season. Later when the team was struggling a bit (as much as a 100-win team can struggle) he began getting more vocal with umpires and defending players more, especially when umpires gave away strikes on Judge.

He was ejected after illustrating pitch framing to an umpire in hilarious fashion last year.

Overall, he's good with the media, stuck with Gray a little too long (but probably long enough to keep the clubhouse on his side), and hasn't yet defended an accused domestic abuser without full context on the situation, so whatever.

The Starting Rotation

Luis Severino (RHP)


19-8, 3.39 ERA 129 ERA+ 4.7 bWAR

A legit homegrown ace that began the season in Cy Young contention but faded late in the season. Footage emerged of of him tipping his pitches later in the season, which we all hope is the case, since it's fixable. He's capable of topping 100 mph on his fastball late in the game, and his fastball/slider combination is one of the best in the sport. His changeup tends to be mercurial, but when he has all three pitches going, he's terrifying.

He recently signed an extension that bought out his arb years and locks him up until 2022, possibly 2023 with a club option.

He worked out with Pedro last off-season, too, which just makes me happy.

PREDICTION: Severino holds his spot as the Yanks' No. 1. He reaches just under 200 innings with more than a strikeout per inning, 5 WAR.
DRINKING GAME: Take a drink every time he strikes out a dude on a low and away slider. Finish your drink if he pauses to look to third before doing it.

James Paxton(LHP)


11-6, 3.76 ERA, 108 ERA+, 2.9 bWAR

Acquired in a trade in the off-season from the Mariners in exchange for their top pitching prospect, Justus Sheffield, Paxton is a giant Canadian man that eagles love. In addition to boosting international relations, Paxton has shown flashes of brilliance alongside injury-shortened seasons. (Those injuries don't really appear to be connected.) When healthy, he has a fastball in the mid-90s, averages more than a strikeout per inning, has a knuckle-curve that breaks in the neighborhood of 12-6, and a cutter.

PREDICTION: Paxton finishes with 160 IP, 175Ks, but has an uptick in HR/9.
DRINKING GAME: Take a drink every time Michael Kay makes a dumb joke about the eagle. Finish your drink if he injures himself falling through a glass table while dreaming about eagles.

Masahiro Tanaka (RHP)


12-6, 3.75 ERA, 116 ERA+, 2.9 bWAR

A Japanese ace that lived up to the hype the first few years of his contract, Tanaka has settled into a low No. 2/high No. 3 starter role since 2017. Even though he's just 30, he's looked like he's 35 since he came over to New York. He famously decided not to opt out of his 7-year deal with the Yanks, which in this free agent climate was probably a good move. Tanaka has a flare for the dramatic in big games and seems to shine in the postseason. When his splitter is on, he's super fun to watch. When his splitter isn't on, it's like watching batting practice. Last year he favored his slider and splitter.

Tanaka managed to injure both hamstrings in interleague play last year but still doesn't advocate for the DH in both leagues. He's clearly wrong.

Unlike Hideki Matsui, I do not know the status of Tanaka's porn collection.

PREDICTION: Probably similar to 2018. Tanaka will be good for about 30 starts, have a few games where he gives up a bunch of moon shots, and still somehow throw gems in the postseason.
DRINKING GAME: Take a drink every time someone swings at a splitter in the dirt. Finish your drink when (not if) someone hits a bad splitter 450 feet or more.

CC Sabathia (LHP)


9-7, 3.65 ERA, 120 ERA+, 2.3 bWAR

A possible HOFer who began his career as a power pitcher and somehow reinvented himself into a 300-pound wily deceiver, Sabathia is one of two remaining players from the 2009 World Series team. He credits his newfound success to Andy Pettite, who taught him the cutter, the pitch that has allowed him to work around his diminished velocity. He's 14 strikeouts away from 3,000 for his career, which means he should have that locked up before May. Sabathia has a leadership presence (tm) around the clubhouse and gave up a $500k IP bonus to throw a retaliatory beanball late last season after Rays pitcher Andrew Kittredge threw behind Austine Romine. The Yankees wound up giving him the bonus anyway.

He announced he'll retire at the end of this year.

PREDICTION: CC starts the year strong, then fades toward the end of the season due to being a tired old man. He has a good postseason and then retires to start a ranch with Andy Pettite.
DRINKING GAME: Take a drink for every inning pitched in a game over 5. Finish your drink if he strikes out 9 or more batters.

JA Happ (LHP)


17-6, 3.65 ERA, 163 ERA+ (with the Yanks), 3.4 bWAR

Picked up last year from the Blue Jays to shore up the rotation, Happ finalized a deal with the Yanks this offseason to the tune of a two-year, $34 million deal with a $17 million team option in 2021. This will likely mean he ends his career as a Yankee. Happ was having a pedestrian season in Toronto before donning pinstripes and going undefeated post-trade. He then returned to earth in the postseason, making GBS threads the bed against Boston, the team he was historically good against. Womp womp.

Happ generates a lot of grounders with a good sinker but relies primarily on his fastball.

PREDICTION: Happ on the Yanks in 2019 looks more like Happ on the Blue Jays in 2018 - slightly above average with about a strikeout per inning.
DRINKING GAME: Take a drink every time someone mentions his age. Finish your drink if someone pronounces his name "Jay Aay."

Summary

In picking up Paxton and securing Happ, the Yanks improved their rotation on last year, but not signing Corbin probably kept them out of the discussion for having a truly dazzling rotation. If everyone stays healthy (lol), they're going to be very competitive even before teams get into the scary good bullpen.

The Bullpen

Aroldis Chapman- Closer (LHP)


32 SV, 2.45 ERA, 179 ERA+, 1.7 bWAR

Oh, the halcyon days when the Yankees didn't have a known domestic abuser on their team closing games. Chapman has an electric fastball and slider, and it sucks to root for his success. He spent some time on the DL last year with tendinitis and was cautious upon his return, leaning on his slider more than his fastball for a couple weeks. He eventually returned to form. He can opt out of his contract at the end of this season, but given how well Kimbrel has fared this offseason he'll probably stick around.

PREDICTION: Chapman has another strong year but uses his slider more than previously.
DRINKING GAME: Take a drink every time Chapman strikes out a dude. Finish your drink if he loads the bases on walks.

Dellin Betances - Setup (RHP)


4 SV, 2.70 ERA, 162 ERA+, 1.7 bWAR

A big tall giant of a baseball throwing man, Betances came up through the Yankee farm system as one of the two Killer B's: Betances and Banuelos. Betances made it, Banuelos didn't fare so well. Betances can touch the upper 90s with his fastball, but what makes him truly dominant is his curveball that seems to disappear out of batters' lines of sight as soon as they initiate a swing.

What has held Betances back in the past is periods of extremely poor control. He'll have games where he can't find the strike zone with a map, and last year it seemed to be exacerbated when he came in with guys on or he pitched more than one inning, something Aaron Boone loved doing with him for some loving reason.

PREDICTION: After a "down" year in 2016 where he had an ERA+ of 140, each year he's improved on that number. I imagine he'll deal with a bout of inconsistency during the year but overall will be dominant.
DRINKING GAME: Take a drink every time Betances Ks a guy with a curve. Finish your drink if he gets out of a bases loaded jam.

Adam Ottavino - Setup/Middle Relief (RHP)


6 SV, 2.43 ERA, 193 ERA+, 2.6bWAR

Ottavino joined the team as a free agent this year on a 3-year, $27 million deal. He was lights out last year on the Rockies, and somehow pitched better at home than he did away from Coors. The fact he's a righty in Yankee stadium means he's more or less in another home-run heavy park, so hopefully he just likes the pressure. Ottavino uses his slider and sinker in combination to get guys out, though his slider tends to produce more fly balls than average. Expect him to use the sinker, which averages 95 mph, a bit more in Yankee stadium.

Ottavino can be seen as a replacement for David Robertson, who was one of the Yanks' go-to guys in close games before it was time to go to Chapman.

PREDICTION: Ottavino comes back to earth with numbers closer to his away splits last year, but still has a strong year.
DRINKING GAME: Take a drink every time Ottavino initiates a grounder on his sinker. Finish your drink if Andujar bobbles the grounder.

Zack Britton - Setup/Middle Relief (LHP)


7 SV, 3.10 ERA, 106 ERA+ (with Yankees), 0.7 bWAR

Formerly Zach Britton, but he watched Saved by the Bell and saw the light. Britton came over last year in a trade from the Orioles. He was coming off an Achilles injury that caused him to struggle mightily in his return, but toward the end of the season it looked like he was beginning to right the ship. He had issues finding the strike zone, but when that frisbee of a sinker he throws gets close, he can be lights out.

His throwing style is very modern; he rarely throws four-seamers and instead relies on his sinker and curve to get guys out.

He puts the "K" in "Zack"! I'll show myself out.

PREDICTION: He'll continue to improve now that he's healthier. I don't think we'll see the 250+ ERA+ Britton of years past next year, but something in the 150 ERA+ range feels doable.
DRINKING GAME: Take a drink every time he starts a batter off with a sinker outside. Finish your drink if Andujar initiates a double play off a grounder.

Everybody Else (XHP)

The remainder of the bullpen has three potential stars and then a bunch of kids vying to fill out the bottom. Those high potential guys are: Chad Green, Jonathan Holder, and Tommy Kahnle. Green came up with the Yanks and put up a 2.3 bWAR last year as a middle/swing reliever. Holder emerged out of nowhere to impressive results and amassed a 140 ERA+ over 66 IP. Kahnle got hurt last year and couldn't find the zone when he was healthy. It remains to be seen if he'll be able to turn it around.

PREDICTION: Green could be the real deal, Holder a little less so, and Kahnle is my big question mark.
DRINKING GAME: Take a drink every time you remember Tyler Clippard was on the Yankees instead of these guys for a while. Finish your drink if one of these guys makes you miss Tyler Clippard.

Summary

The Yankees' bullpen was a strong suit for them last year, and this year is no different. Despite losing David Robertson, they netted out to be a bit better. They still have four guys who could close on just about any team in the league, and Green and Holder are a year more developed.

Position Players

Gary Sanchez - Catcher (R)


86 OPS+, 1.2 WAR

Gary Sanchez is the guy every Yankee fan drafted too high in fantasy baseball last year. After finishing second in rookie of the year voting in 2016 and then putting up 4.1 WAR in 2017, everything that could have gone wrong for the guy did. While he hit the ball hard, it was usually at someone (he finished the year with a BABIP of .197). Then he got hurt and spent more than a month on the DL. When he came back he took a bunch of poo poo for not going max effort in the game where he re-injured himself. And his defense got worse. Much, much worse.

Since the end of the season, people are saying he was playing injured all season, which isn't good either but at least gives us all hope for a return to form.

PREDICTION: Sanchez comes back healthy and while he doesn't put up 8 WAR, he gets closer to 5.
DRINKING GAME: Take a drink every time Sanchez gets crossed up with Severino. Finish your drink if he lets a guy get to first on a dropped third strike.

Luke Voit - 1B (R)


188 OPS+ (with Yankees), 1.4 WAR

The Yankees were in sore need of a beefy lad, so they went and got one from St. Louis. Voit was blocked at first on the Cardinals, and when he came to the Yanks he decided to channel the spirit of a young Lou Gherig to absolutely crush baseballs in August and September. He hit 14 home runs in two months and can bench press one-handed. His first shortened season with the Yanks has echoes of Shane Spencer, but first base is his to lose.

PREDICTION: Luke Voit realizes he isn't Lou Gherig and doesn't carry an OPS of nearly 1.100 all year. I'd be happy if he puts up an .800 OPS.
DRINKING GAME: Take a drink every time plunks a short porch, opposite field home run. Finish your drink if he takes off his douchy necklace.

Gleyber Torres - 2B (R)


OPS+ 118, 2.9 WAR

The jewel of minor league prospects prior to Vlad Jr.'s arrival, Gleyber joined the Yankees farm system after the team traded Aroldis Chapman to the Cubs in 2016. He came up to the bigs in April of last year and started hitting dramatic home runs like it was his job. (Narrator: It was is job.) He seemed to be involved in everything, including Rookie of the Year talks, until he strained his oblique and spent some time on the DL. When he came back it took him a while to find his groove again. All that said, he's 22 and his ceiling is about as high as any 2B in the game.

PREDICTION: 4.5 WAR, 25-30 home runs.
DRINKING GAME: Take a drink every time Gleyber smiles in the dugout. Finish your drink if he hits a walk off home run.

Troy Tulowitzki - Short Stop (R)



When he was younger, Tulo was one of if not the best shortstops in the game. But he hasn't played a full season since he was 26, which was 8 years ago. He missed all of 2018 to injury and was released by mutual agreement with Toronto. The Yanks picked him up with a spring training invite because why not? With Didi out to start the year, if you can avoid moving Torres to short, it's basically a risk-free move.

That said, I liked this gamble a lot more before Machado signed elsewhere, and Tulo would have been a utility guy of the bench. Right now, Troy Tulowitzki is the Yankees' starting shortstop in TYOOL 2019.

PREDICTION: If he stays healthy through spring training, he puts up 90-100 OPS+ ball with passable defense until Didi comes back.
DRINKING GAME: Take a drink every time Tulo runs down the line to steady your nerves. Pour your drink out for your dead homie's career when something on him breaks.

Miguel Andjuar - 3B (R)


128 OPS+, 2.2 WAR

More like Miguel CAN DO HAR. Starting the season in AAA to work on his defense, Andjuar came up early in the 2018 season after a rash of injuries hit the infield, and once he came up he never looked back. After an adjustment period at the plate, Andujar began a campaign to murder baseballs at an alarming rate. He finished the year with 27 homers and 47 doubles, setting the Yankee record for doubles in a season as a rookie previously held by some guy who played centerfield for them in the '30s.

While Andujar can drive balls anywhere in (and out of) the zone, his major Achilles' heel is his defense, which is godawful. His range is bad and he seems to lack confidence when he throws. It got to the point where Boone was yanking him late in games for defensive purposes. That said, it's not a lack of work ethic; he puts in the time to get better. So we'll see.

PREDICTION: 70 XBH, his defense improves, but don't be surprised if he gets some games at first if Voit/Bird can't get it going.
DRINKING GAME: Take a drink every time Andujar doubles. Finish your drink if he makes a highlight play at third.

Aaron Judge - RF (R)


145 OPS+, 5.5 WAR

America's great future and baseball's native giant son. Judge is another homegrown Yankee star that kicked things off by setting the world on fire, winning Rookie of the Year in 2017 and getting hosed out of the MVP by a midget who got hosed out of the MVP the year before.

Judge's sophomore season wasn't as dominant as his rookie campaign, but it was also shortened by injury. Judge has all the makings of a perennial all star: He can obviously hit, but his fielding is also impressive for a guy his size, and he can hit triple digits on throws from right field.

PREDICTION: 7 WAR or higher for the year, 35+ home runs
DRINKING GAME: Take a drink every time Judge narrowly misses a 900 foot home run. Finish your drink when a loving umpire calls a low strike on him.

Aaron Hicks - CF (S)


123 OPS+, 4.7 WAR

Hicks is a guy who really put it together in 2017, then injured himself. He continued the good work in 2018, then injured himself but less so. When Hicks is healthy, he gets on base at a good clip, finally discovered his power last year, and plays decent enough centerfield to not embarrass himself. Like Judge, he has a canon for a right arm. He was clocked last year at 105 mph on a throw from center.

Hicks adjusted his left-handed batting approach last year to apply the same positioning in the box he does at Yankee stadium to every park, and it really paid off. He also finishes his left-handed home run swings very similar to Barrold, which I love.

PREDICTION: Hicks has a strong season but it's shortened by at least one IL stint.
DRINKING GAME: Take a drink every time Hicks walks. Finish your drink if he pulls a hammy running to first.

Brett Gardner - LF (L)


107 OPS+, 2.8 WAR

Along with CC, the only remaining Yankee from the 2009 World Series winning team. Gardner has always been a speed-first guy, and as he enters his age 35 season, we should be firmly in his decline phase. But he's been pretty steady over the past few years; his defense is decent, though his hitting fell off last year.

What keeps Gardner in the lineup is his ability to extend at-bats and still steal a decent amount of bases. He's also got good baserunning skills and one of the most amazing heads in the business. (Fun fact: He won a bet against Matt Holiday in 2017 over who would finish with more homers. Loser had to grow their hair out.)

PREDICTION: Gardner cedes more time to Stanton or Frazier in left field and functions more as a bench bat/fourth outfielder.
DRINKING GAME: Take a drink every time Gardner takes strike one. Finish your drink if he sees 10 pitches in an at bat.

Giancarlo Stanton - DH/LF (R)


126 OPS+, 4 WAR

Also known as the reason the Yanks didn't go after Bryce Harper this year. (Just kidding, it's collusion.) Stanton came over from the Marlins last year because Jeter owed Hal a favor. He started the year off with two bangs: Two home runs in the first game of the season. After that, he led a stunning campaign to strike out as much as humanly possible.

It's pretty clear that the New York pressure cooker got to him a bit in his first year. But his year was still good, just not Giancarlo Stanton good.

As the year progressed, Stanton started getting hot streaks going and mashed 38 homers, not to mention putting the team on his back when Judge spent time on the IL. He also hits grounders so loving hard that even routine plays need a plus defender to stop them.

PREDICTION: Stanton gets his New York sea legs and gets back to a 140 OPS+.
DRINKING GAME: Take a drink every time Stanton strikes out. Finish your drink if strikes out five times in a game.

Other Notables
DJ LeMahieu signed as a free agent this offseason and will likely rotate as a utility infielder/bench bat/platoon guy/I have no idea. Neither do the Yankees, really.

Sir Didi Gregorius is recovering from Tommy John surgery and is due to come back in May-ish. He's fun as gently caress to watch and seems like a genuinely nice guy. The Yanks opted not to non-tender him last off-season, which was actually pretty cool and seems to indicate they want to lock him into a longer-term contract. I hope this is the case because the guy managed to come in and replace Jeter without getting murdered by some shitheel from the Bronx.

Clint Frazier, who has been dealing with concussion issues or the past couple years, has been cleared for baseball activities and is in spring training. :unsmith: Expect him to compete for the fourth OF/LF job with Gardner.

Greg Bird is like Nick Johnson with less play time and a worse OBP. This poor guy has been bit by the injury bug to the point where he probably wont be able to put anything together, just due to the time lost in his development.

Jacoby Ellsbury seems like a decent dude who is made entirely of balsa wood. I don't blame him for signing a contract, I blame the Yankees for panic signing him after they let Cano walk in the same offseason.

Summary

Overall the outfield and lineup shouldn't be a problem for the Yanks. They set a record for home runs hit in a season last year, and there's no reason they shouldn't get close to that. The big question is the infield. With Andujar a big question mark and Tulowitzki their primary option at short for now, that's a lot of old and bad one side of the infield.

The weakest part of the lineup is that there are a lot of home run hitters who don't really change their approach when guys are on base. Last year they were horrible with RISP, and when the playoffs came, they really only won when they were hitting long balls. It's weird to say, but they need to start being OK with singles and doubles when they got ducks on the pond.

:siren: Final Summary :siren:

The Yanks have improved their starting pitching, kept the bullpen solid, and were already good offensively last year. The Red Sox haven't done a ton to improve, but they also won a World Series last year, so they're already good. I don't see a reason that the AL East won't be seriously competitive, and some dudes on the Sox are due for a major regression. With the AL West getting better, the top wild card slot isn't as sure a thing as it has been. Overall I think the AL East could go either way, and the 2019 Champs could easily come from the division.

So, should you root for this team? The Yanks are weirdly likeable (minus Chapman), have a talented core of young players, and most of the bandwagon assholes are wearing Red Sox hats now. That said, the fanbase has more than its fair share of morons, so be prepared to get yourself lumped in with the 27 Rings crowd.

But hey, 27 rings.

Well Played Mauer fucked around with this message at 05:44 on Feb 22, 2019

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Well Played Mauer
Jun 1, 2003

We'll always have Cabo

ZenVulgarity posted:

You motherfucker

I'm sorry. It's probably bad anyway. And this takes forever.

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