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Rime posted:No, you've got about ten years left. goddamnit rime, 2029 is the exact year some fruity goddamn futurists predicted ai will be viably generalized and i have been running my mouth about how our destiny is not to persist but to give birth to synthetic life just before expiring and fffffff page topper deux
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Mar 12, 2019 01:45
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Personally I just accept that poo poo is hosed and we will all die of climate change, if not for other reasons beforehand, as a given.
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Mar 12, 2019 01:59
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Rime posted:No, you've got about ten years left. hmm good point have you considered throwing your internet devices away to get acclimated to it? just a thought
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Mar 12, 2019 02:07
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Mayor Dave posted:Miami Beach is entirely artificial and the sea will reclaim it in short order Hamas should rebrand with, "Climate Change, or, Driving Miami-Beach Into The Sea One Emission At A Time" They can stump for adaptation/mitigation through efficient urbanization, pursuant to which a 2-state solution naturally follows ofc Accretionist has issued a correction as of 02:42 on Mar 12, 2019 |
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Mar 12, 2019 02:16
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Rime posted:No, you've got about ten years left. yo Rime word to the wise CSPAM mental health thread is stickied at the top of the forum I've been a turmo poster since I stared at palestinian children getting roasted alive by the israelis via white phosphorus You need help, bud.
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Mar 12, 2019 02:23
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That's a take. Another one is he's just a clear eyed realist with a sober analysis of the known, indisputable facts. Or Maybe The truth is somewhEeerreEeeee inbeeeEeeeetween I really liked your long form post Rime, but 10 years does seem scant.
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Mar 12, 2019 02:25
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The Protagonist posted:you should probably be a good citizen though and not worry about it and don't do anything
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Mar 12, 2019 02:28
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slumdoge millionare posted:yo Rime word to the wise CSPAM mental health thread is stickied at the top of the forum I'd put what he's talking about somewhere in the middle of the outcome distribution at this point to be honest. Maybe a bit on the unlikely side, definitely not in the long tail.
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Mar 12, 2019 02:34
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Mutar posted:i get depressed reading in detail can someone see if they mention how long they estimate the whole scenario 1 ->2->3 progression is likely to take? Not that I see. But, → assuming worst case ←, #3 would start pre-2100. With regards to #1, projections generally top out around 4.5C by 2100. With regards to #2, they're using these feedbacks:  Some of those would be at least like 50 years out. But since #1 puts us at 4.5C by 2100 by itself, this can only serve to accelerate that. With regards to #3, no idea. On geologic timescale, it counts as 'immediate.' But on human timescales, no idea. Here's a great article about this: A World Without Clouds  quote:To imagine 12 degrees of warming, think of crocodiles swimming in the Arctic and of the scorched, mostly lifeless equatorial regions during the PETM Yeah, I really don't think the status quo is a good idea anymore.
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Mar 12, 2019 02:37
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Guys. Guys. Also, hypothetically, girls. The near end of the mitigation curve is still attainable. Get Bernie and a majority in senate in 2020 and do untold WH40K violence on the superrich and a sustainable civilization with a recognizable quality of life could be realized. It sounds crazy to type out, and most of us are really lazy and complacent and greedy so the probability of it happening is really low, but it is technically one potential future path we could, with sufficient collective action, still take. Yes. Even now. Right at this moment yes. For at least several many moments more this post is possibly still true 3/1-2X/201..9
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Mar 12, 2019 02:41
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Personally, I'm looking forward to ramshackle, panic-driven geoengineering (which, as a field, doesn't even really exist yet).
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Mar 12, 2019 02:51
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The Protagonist posted:The near end of the mitigation curve is still attainable. lmao
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Mar 12, 2019 03:29
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listen buddy i'm just a gameshow host describing that one slice of the wheel of fortune that is only one peg wide and sandwiched by bankruptcy slices
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Mar 12, 2019 03:34
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Accretionist posted:Personally, I'm looking forward to ramshackle, panic-driven geoengineering (which, as a field, doesn't even really exist yet). we chosen few who watched the animatrix shall be like sages foretelling the future
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Mar 12, 2019 03:39
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Homeless Friend posted:we chosen few who watched the animatrix shall be like sages foretelling the future yeah too bad our doom is stupid bullshit sun shades and iron tides of death instead of kick rear end nuke robots murdering us in our cities after we darken the skies.
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Mar 12, 2019 03:49
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Admiral Ray posted:yeah too bad our doom is stupid bullshit sun shades and iron tides of death instead of kick rear end nuke robots murdering us in our cities after we darken the skies. we can't give earth the full shades treatment, it's only got the one round thing to put a shade in front but we can ensure our legacy is that this planet is the coolest in the universe the only way for aliens to compete would be to add a black leather trenchcoat to their planet, but jokes on them they'll Venus themselves before they ever have enough cows and dye
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Mar 12, 2019 04:00
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https://earther.gizmodo.com/how-will-we-know-the-world-is-ending-1830381869 posted:The very question indicates that the world has already ended. Feelings of unreality or uncertainty are symptoms of trauma. When you’re in a car crash, you wonder whether it’s really happening… The pain of all kinds comes later. “Has global warming really started yet?” is a sign that it has already started, a bit like “I wonder when this acid is really going to kick in.”
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Mar 12, 2019 04:00
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Accretionist posted:Personally, I'm looking forward to ramshackle, panic-driven geoengineering (which, as a field, doesn't even really exist yet). yeah i roll coal so what
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Mar 12, 2019 04:06
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net work error posted:I'm starting this thread of right by giving you how the libs imagination sees us fixing climate change by 2050. Why the gently caress would you move into the city?
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Mar 12, 2019 04:11
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12C by 2100 is lunacy and is a hilariously rash extrapolation of a model showing stratocumulus dissipation as an eddy at local scale. Things are obscenely bad but try to buoy yourselves to reality a bit.
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Mar 12, 2019 04:22
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I still have the old thread bookmarked and keep opening it only to get owned over and over
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Mar 12, 2019 04:35
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Notorious R.I.M. posted:12C by 2100 is lunacy and is a hilariously rash extrapolation of a model showing stratocumulus dissipation as an eddy at local scale. The loss of stratocumulus didn't happen at 12C, it happened at 4 - 5C with 1200 ppm CO2. The extra warming to 12C resulted from the loss of the clouds. Extrapolating the model from 5 km by 5 km to the entire globe is obviously fraught with problems, not the least considering their model kept currents and wind patterns constant. The loss of cloud cover needs to be better modeled to improve predictions, but this does point to another feedback mechanism we weren't able to properly account for. Here's a pdf of the actual paper if you want to read it. Admiral Ray has issued a correction as of 05:16 on Mar 12, 2019 |
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Mar 12, 2019 04:43
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CODChimera posted:Why the gently caress would you move into the city? Ideally the city is walkable and has decent public transport in the fantasy scenario and does more to curb emissions than some of the other fantasy in that article. Also didn't Marx like cities because they tend to cause Solidarity or something.
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Mar 12, 2019 05:18
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What if Monsanto GMOs up a tree that can grow in salt water and floats and we just chuck a billion seeds of that into the ocean and it sucks a bunch of carbon out of the atmosphere and then when it dies it sinks into the anaerobic part of the ocean where the carbon stays sequestered.
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Mar 12, 2019 05:49
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Admiral Ray posted:The loss of stratocumulus didn't happen at 12C, it happened at 4 - 5C with 1200 ppm CO2. The extra warming to 12C resulted from the loss of the clouds. Having read the paper was one of the major motivators for me making my post. I'm interested in what real long tail outcomes look like, not roleplaying Guy McPherson.
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Mar 12, 2019 07:50
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Notorious R.I.M. posted:not roleplaying Guy McPherson. i have unfortunate news re: the direction these threads always go
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Mar 12, 2019 07:54
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though tbf the only other direction it goes is the one that got the previous thread killed so uh
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Mar 12, 2019 07:55
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Notorious R.I.M. posted:Having read the paper was one of the major motivators for me making my post. I'm interested in what real long tail outcomes look like, not roleplaying Guy McPherson. Whoops, I shouldn't have assumed you hadn't, I remember you linking or quoting other paywalled articles. Well it's in the post now for anyone else.
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Mar 12, 2019 08:14
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+12 deg. C? jesus dont get greedy guys. +4 C is more than enough climate apocalypse for everyone
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Mar 12, 2019 08:21
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Fallen Hamprince posted:+12 deg. C? jesus dont get greedy guys. +4 C is more than enough climate apocalypse for everyone Here in America we believe in the entrepreneurial spirit that will enable us to reach warming scenarios only dreamed of in the night terrors of climate scientists
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Mar 12, 2019 08:24
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Admiral Ray posted:Whoops, I shouldn't have assumed you hadn't, I remember you linking or quoting other paywalled articles. Well it's in the post now for anyone else. Word. It's a really good read and is a great example of the kind of localized chaotic phenomena that lower resolution global models cannot feasibly reproduce. Atmospheric dynamics are definitely where the big lurking feedbacks may be. It's really hard to draw any conclusions about mesoscale behavior in previous climates and it's really hard to model in ways that we can generalize across time and space.
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Mar 12, 2019 08:28
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Good news! Few pathways to an acceptable climate future without immediate action quote:A new comprehensive study of climate change has painted over 5 million pictures of humanity's potential future, and few foretell an Earth that has not severely warmed. But with immediate action and some luck, there are pathways to a tolerable climate future, according to a research team led by Tufts University. 
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Mar 12, 2019 08:38
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Rime posted:
You're full of poo poo, both of these claims are extremely wrong. I have never seen a single study that has claimed anything even remotely over a year of energy or emission amortization for either on or offshore wind. After year 1 they run emission and energy surpluses, including all costs over the entire life cycle, including all maintenance and Replacements. What are you even talking about? Also I Personally know at least two dozen people in the renewable industry, including a good number of wind engineers and planners, and they all care a good amount about the climate and do it for idealiological reasons. Myself included.
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Mar 12, 2019 09:45
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Son of Rodney posted:You're full of poo poo, both of these claims are extremely wrong. I have never seen a single study that has claimed anything even remotely over a year of energy or emission amortization for either on or offshore wind. After year 1 they run emission and energy surpluses, including all costs over the entire life cycle, including all maintenance and Replacements. What are you even talking about? That's cool, you're wrong. Ignorance must be bliss. 
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Mar 12, 2019 10:01
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Rime posted:That's cool, you're wrong. Ignorance must be bliss. 
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Mar 12, 2019 10:04
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When the climate change comes I will make a raft of the bloated corpses of the people who laughed at the idea of climate change and i will sail the world seeking dry land susained by my sense of righteous self-satisfaction as I laugh at how wrong my boat was when it was alive
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Mar 12, 2019 10:30
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What is probably going on is that the world leaders are shape shifting dinosaur refugees from the stars (from earth originally) who are trying to terraform the earth to suit their purposes
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Mar 12, 2019 10:33
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Dairy Days posted:hmm good point have you considered throwing your internet devices away to get acclimated to it? just a thought we must post as much as we can before the End of Posting
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Mar 12, 2019 10:56
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Notorious R.I.M. posted:I'd put what he's talking about somewhere in the middle of the outcome distribution at this point to be honest. Maybe a bit on the unlikely side, definitely not in the long tail. the tails are fat for most climate change stuff which really makes it difficult to take proactive action to deal with the effects
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Mar 12, 2019 10:58
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just consume less you utter americans
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Mar 12, 2019 11:26
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