Climate Change: hope for the biggest I told you so of all time is what fuels us

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mawarannahr: May 21, 2019

Pulse bulletin!

https://www.producer.com/2019/05/global-lentil-production-to-drop/ posted:

Lentil exports have been surprisingly strong in 2018-19, considering India slapped a 33 percent import duty on the crop. | File photo
However, a glut of supply around the world going into the 2019-20 year is expected to keep prices from rising significantly.

Reduced global acreage and the onset of El Nino are providing some optimism to the lentil market outlook, says a major processor of the crop.

Canadian farmers told Statistics Canada they are going to plant 3.4 million acres of lentils, a 9.6 percent drop from the previous year.
Greg Simpson, chief executive officer of Simpson Seeds, was anticipating three million acres but with lacklustre wheat and canola prices, he understands why farmers bumped up lentil plantings.
There is a similar pattern of reduced acres emerging in other key pulse exporting regions of the world.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture is forecasting a 29 percent decline in pulse acres in Kazakhstan to 761,000 acres. The country has recently emerged as a big lentil exporter to places such as Turkey.
The president of the Community of Pulse Producers and Customers of Ukraine told APK-Inform that pulse acres will be down in that country, including a 19 percent reduction in peas.
Russia is also cutting back, although to a lesser degree with a forecast 2.5 percent drop in pea plantings, according to APK-Inform.
El Nino is the other big factor in pulse markets. It could hamper yields and production in Australia, which is the other major exporting region.
�What I�m hearing is it�s one of the driest springs ever in Australia,� said Simpson.
The weather pattern could also wreak havoc on India�s upcoming kharif crop.
If everything plays out as advertised, there could finally be some good news on the horizon for Canadian lentil growers.
However, growers need to temper their price expectations because there is a glut of lentils around the world heading into the 2019-20 crop year.
�I�m just trying to say it looks like we can put a stop to these prices going even lower,� said Simpson.
Lentil exports have been surprisingly strong in 2018-19, considering India slapped a 33 percent import duty on the crop.
Stat Publishing is forecasting a 1.96 million tonne export program, a 27 percent increase over the previous year.
India has been the top buyer of Canadian lentils, quietly purchasing the crop through special licences, said Simpson.
Stat Publishing estimates that the strong export program should result in 557,000 tonnes of carryout in 2018-19 for a 23 percent stocks-to-use ratio.
For 2019-20 it is forecasting 260,000 tonnes of carryout and a price-friendly 11 percent stocks-to-use ratio.
Simpson believes India will start importing more pulses following the upcoming 2019 general election. Votes will be tabulated May 23.
Once the election is over there will be less political pressure to keep domestic pulse prices artificially inflated by restricting imports through tariffs.
Simpson is also optimistic about large green lentil demand due to what he believes could be a 50 percent reduction in India�s pigeon pea crop.
When India has a pigeon pea shortfall, it usually relies on bringing in supplies from Myanmar and North Africa, but prices are so low in those regions that there are reports of farmers burning their crops.
So India may have to turn to green lentils as a substitute.
�North America may see an uptick in demand for green lentils in the next crop year,� he said.
He is also forecasting strong demand for small green lentils through the World Food Programme due to geopolitical problems in Iran, Syria and Venezuela.
�I see food aid becoming a bigger factor going forward,� he said.
As well, he sees good niche demand developing for Spanish brown lentils due to drought in Spain and the potential for European tariffs on U.S. lentils.

LOL

https://www.producer.com/2019/05/western-canadian-soybean-acres-likely-to-take-a-tumble/ posted:

It�s 2016 all over again, at least for soybean acres in Western Canada.
Statistics Canada, in its April report on seeding intentions, projected soybean acres at 240,000 in Saskatchewan and about 1.6 million in Manitoba.
In both provinces, the figures are almost identical to the acreage in 2016.
The combined acreage of 1.84 million is a massive drop from 2017, when growers in Manitoba and Saskatchewan seeded 3.1 million acres of beans.
Last year, Manitoba had 1.9 million acres and Saskatchewan had 407,000 acres of soybeans.
�Do the number surprise us? No. We knew soybean acres were going to be lower,� said Tyler Russell, western Canadian manager for NorthStar Genetics, which produces and sells soybean varieties to growers.
�And it�s reflected in (seed) sales, as well.�
The Statistics Canada estimate for Manitoba is close to a prediction made in January.
Dennis Lange, provincial pulse specialist with Manitoba Agriculture, said at Ag Days in Brandon that soybean acres would drop by 300,000 and be around 1.6 million.
The summers of 2017 and 2018 were hard on soybean growers, particularly in Saskatchewan. Beans need rain in late July and early August for pod fill, but in most areas the moisture never came.
The average yield last year in Manitoba was tolerable at 32 to 33 bushels per acre, but in recent years Manitoba growers have become accustomed to yields of 40 to 50 bu. per acre.
As well, a 30 bu. soybean crop is hard to stomach when a neighbouring canola grower is harvesting 50 bu. per acre. In 2018, the provincial average for canola was 45 bu. per acre.
In Saskatchewan, soybean yields were not tolerable. They were terrible.
The average yield in 2017 and 2018, based on Statistics Canada estimates, were around 20 bu. per acre, and many growers reported yields of 15 bu. per acre.
�The yield relative to canola or other pulses in the rotation, we�re not there yet,� said Gerrid Gust, who farms near Davidson, Sask., and grew 400 acres of beans in 2018.
Saskatchewan growers, though, did have success with soybeans before 2017 and 2018. In 2016, soybeans produced yields in the mid 30s and higher.
Soybeans looked appealing in the winter of 2016-17 because the summer of 2016 was horrific for cereal crops in Saskatchewan.
�There was vomitoxin all over the place and fusarium was off the charts,� Russell said.
�They (growers) looked across at some of the few acres of beans that were grown and they (realized) that�s a crop that can withstand the wetness.� Unfortunately, we (then) had two of the driest summers (back to back).�
Two years of sub-par yields have dulled enthusiasm for soybeans, but there�s a chance that soybean acres could exceed expectations in 2019.
Canola prices are down because China is refusing to buy Canadian canola seed. Growers may shift a few more acres into beans.
�There are still some soybeans acres � coming back to us,� Russell said.
�In some of their last acres, some people have been looking � and (saying), �I might put in an extra quarter of beans.� �

I guess this is good/OK:

https://www.producer.com/2019/05/rise-of-plant-based-protein-forces-pulse-quality-rethink/?module=author-bio-recent&pgtype=article&i= posted:

Gord Bacon, chief executive officer of Pulse Canada, said companies like Beyond Meat don�t care about size, colour and shape because they are grinding pulses into flour rather than selling them whole or split.  He said the pulse sector must develop new quality parameters that meet the needs of these alternative-use customers.  | File photo
The sector says it must develop new quality parameters to meet the needs of customers using pulses for alternative uses
It is time to develop new quality parameters and grading systems for pulses as demand for plant-based proteins takes off, says the head of Pulse Canada.
In the past, quality has been defined by three attributes � size, shape and colour.
Those are the key traits in traditional markets like India. Buyers want to know the calibre of a chickpea, whether the pea is green or yellow and if the lentil is round or football-shaped.
New buyers could be a significant new source of demand for pulses, and they seek a different set of attributes.
Beyond Meat, a plant-based meat manufacturer, recently went through the best initial public share offering in nearly two decades by an American company, according to an article in MarketWatch.
The company�s share price increased by 163 percent in one day. It sold 9.5 million shares and raised $240 million.
Gord Bacon, chief executive officer of Pulse Canada, said companies like Beyond Meat don�t care about size, colour and shape because they are grinding pulses into flour rather than selling them whole or split.
He said the pulse sector must develop new quality parameters that meet the needs of these alternative-use customers.
Some pulse buyers are already starting to require new quality characteristics in pulses. Each company may look for something different.
Companies making meat alternatives want pea flour that has high water absorption. Those in the cookie business want the opposite.
Roquette, the French company building a pea protein manufacturing plant in Portage le Prairie, Man., has a list of specific pea varieties that it wants to use at its plant.
�It�s already starting to happen,� said Bacon.
It is not a foreign concept for the agriculture sector. Maltsters have been influencing barley breeding programs for decades. The wheat industry has developed multiple classes of wheat to meet different needs.
�These concepts aren�t new, what they are is an evolution for the pulse industry,� he said.
The new quality parameters will have an impact on breeding programs, what farmers decide to grow and how those crops are graded, he said.
Pulse Canada has set a goal for 25 percent of Canada�s pulse production to be sold in new use categories by 2025.
For instance, it has goals for incorporating lentils into power bowls and using pulses in Asian noodles to increase fibre and protein levels.
The goal is to create a new source of demand for pulses, decreasing the reliance on unpredictable export markets like India where Canadian exporters are currently facing tariffs and quotas.
One change Bacon sees on the horizon is quality parameters based on values other than price.
Buyers are increasingly interested in values such as environmental sustainability, but no good ways exist to measure that in food products.
�What we have are half measures. Greenhouse gas? That�s not sustainability in and of itself,� he said.
There needs to be measures of other attributes such as water use, biodiversity and land use.
Many of the life-cycle models used to assess environmental sustainability are global or national in scope. They don�t take into account the different ecosystems where crops are grown.
Pulse Canada is working on developing models that will incorporate actual farm data for a particular region.
The models will use a complex mix of variables to provide easily digestible information for the end user.
�Consumers don�t walk down the grocery store needing to understand what symbiotic nitrogen fixation is,� said Bacon.
�They need something simpler to tell (them) what the footprint of the food is.�
The models will take into account what happens on the farm and at the processing and retail stages of the food chain.
Bacon recently visited the Buhler Group plant in Minneapolis where he saw equipment that reduces water use in corn milling by 95 percent.
That is the type of processing factor that can be included in measuring the overall environmental footprint of a food product.

If Beyond Beef et al are able to make better use of the increasingly poor quality produce we're bound to produce, the future will be ever so slightly more tolerable (maybe?)

mawarannahr has issued a correction as of 07:59 on May 21, 2019

# ¿ May 21, 2019 03:53

Adbot: ADBOT LOVES YOU

# ¿ Apr 26, 2024 04:31

mawarannahr: May 21, 2019

If we can't plant pulses, what will we do then?

# ¿ May 21, 2019 03:59

mawarannahr: May 21, 2019

baw posted:

im gord bacon

lol, I just noticed this too which sounds rather funny

quote:

�There was vomitoxin all over the place and fusarium was off the charts,� Russell said.

probably not great

# ¿ May 21, 2019 08:00

mawarannahr: May 21, 2019

I have IBS but only in America; I eat basically the same as in my home country but either I�m old or the flora here are ducked up. lentils and borlotti beans are my favorites , but I can�t eat more than an ounce or so of either in the USA without wanting to die, so I�ve been eating more meat to accompany my generally increased carbon footprint. Also alliums are loving with me here. I moved about a year and a half ago and it�s fine when I go back home. WHO KNOES ??

# ¿ May 21, 2019 21:57

mawarannahr: May 21, 2019

would you like your baguettes toasted? it's gonna be a long, hot summer from now on:

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/accuweather-2019-europe-summer-forecast/70008315 posted:

A summer filled with intense heat is predicted across parts of Europe, while severe weather will be a concern for others.

Lengthy dry spells will lead to drought concerns and threaten agriculture as rain will be in short supply for much of the continent throughout the summer months.

Dangerous heat waves to build from Iberian Peninsula to Central Europe

The biggest story of the summer is likely to be the long-duration heat waves that will grip areas from Portugal and Spain to Poland and Hungary.

The heat will begin in June across the Iberian Peninsula before spreading north and eastward throughout the summer months.

The heat will be more persistent than during last summer, when record temperatures were recorded in parts of Portugal, Belgium, the Netherlands, Germany and Scandinavia, but generally lasted for only a week or so at a time.

Even when the most intense heat waves wane, it will be brief and temperatures will remain near or above normal before returning to dangerous levels once again.

High temperatures in excess of 38 C (100 F) will be possible from northern France, Belgium and Netherlands into Poland, Slovakia and Hungary.

"High temperatures may reach 40 C (104 F) in parts of southern and eastern France from July into early August," AccuWeather Meteorologist Tyler Roys said.

[b/The hottest locations throughout Portugal and Spain will see multi-day heat waves with temperatures peaking at or above 43 C (110 F).[/b]

Unseasonably warm nights will also be a concern during these heat waves, making for dangerous conditions as homes without air conditioning that will be unable to cool down before heat builds again the following day.

It will be important for residents and visitors to take extra care in the heat to prevent illness. Drinking plenty of water, spending time in the shade and wearing light clothing will be necessary.

When possible, strenuous outdoor activity should be avoided during the hottest part of the day.

Stagnant conditions contributing to the intense heat will also result in poor air quality, especially in and near cities. Air quality may also be worsened by smoke from wildfires.

Children, the elderly and those with respiratory or cardiovascular health conditions should avoid spending time outside as much as possible when air quality alerts are issued.

The intense heat waves and long spells of dry weather throughout the summer will bring a high risk for wildfires to much of western and central Europe.

The areas at greatest risk will be from northern Portugal into northern Spain and from the Alps into Germany and Czech Republic.

A wet winter and spring across much of western and central Europe will result in more vegetation than in previous years.

However, as dry weather prevails early in the summer, the stage will be set for a high wildfire risk during the second half of the season.

The Iberian Peninsula will be at risk first due to building heat in June combined with little or no rainfall.

The threat will spread northeastward across France and into the Alps, Germany and the rest of central Europe from July into August.

This threat is likely to continue into autumn as the dry vegetation and warm weather persist.

"Drought will be an increasing concern across these areas from late summer into autumn, stressing agriculture and water supplies for the second straight year in many locations," Roys said.

Balkan Peninsula to endure rounds of severe thunderstorms

While dry and hot weather dominates a large portion of Europe this summer, severe thunderstorms will threaten the Balkan Peninsula throughout the season.

Though the region will not be immune from heat waves, extreme heat will be limited.

Violent thunderstorms will threaten Greece to Serbia, Romania and Bulgaria as disturbances track into the region from the Mediterranean, as well as from eastern Europe and Russia.

"These storms will bring frequent lightning, flooding downpours and damaging winds and hail," Roys said. "The strongest storms will be capable of producing tornadoes."

Severe thunderstorms will most likely be during the afternoon and evening hours.

These storms will occasionally ignite farther west, bringing volatile weather to Italy.

The greatest risk will be for damaging winds, hail and flash flooding.

A sunshine-filled summer from UK to France, but drought concerns will loom

Dry weather will dominate much of the summer across Ireland, southern parts of the United Kingdom, the Low Countries and northern France.

The dry weather will provide ample opportunities for people to enjoy outdoor activities.

Temperatures will generally be at or above average from June into August, but the most intense heat will be found across the interior of Europe.

Brief heat waves will be possible, generally lasting three days or less before cooler air brings relief.

"During these hot spells, temperatures can reach 32 C (90 F) across southern England and the Midlands," Roys said.

As the summer progresses, the dry weather combined with above-normal temperatures and lengthy amounts of daily sunshine will lead to drought concerns throughout the region.

Stressed and damaged crops may result from the hot, dry weather, and water shortages are also possible in some areas.

There will also be an elevated risk for wildfires by the late summer due to the dry conditions.

The most likely area to avoid drought will be across Scotland, where fronts will bring occasional rainfall and cooler air.

Following the extreme heat and wildfires of last summer, Scandinavia can expect a more typical summer this year.

Temperatures will be seasonably warm throughout the season, but no lasting heat waves or prolonged dry spells are predicted.

The combination of lower temperatures and occasional rainfall will lower the wildfire risk dramatically from last year, when many areas endured the worst fires in modern history.

"While much of Scandinavia saw less than 50 percent of their normal rainfall last summer, the region can expect 70-100 percent of normal this summer," Roys said.

Eastern Europe will avoid much of the extreme weather that will grip the continent this summer; however, temperatures may briefly approach 38 C (100 F) for a time in the middle of the summer, according to Roys.

Overall, warm weather is expected with near- to slightly to below-normal rainfall from Ukraine to Estonia.

Locations from southern Lithuania to western Ukraine will be the most prone to intense heat, while severe thunderstorms will occasionally batter southern Belarus, Ukraine and Moldova.

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mawarannahr has issued a correction as of 22:30 on May 21, 2019

# ¿ May 21, 2019 22:26

mawarannahr: May 21, 2019

WaryWarren posted:

Google Joe Bastardi

the names are good

# ¿ May 22, 2019 04:19

mawarannahr: May 21, 2019

I�ve talked about this to liberals with graduate degrees and I got, �well, it�s not like they can tell the forecast now so who cares, the weather channel sucks am I right? Besides, I was told it would make my phone 20 times faster so that sounds pretty good. I want 5G.�

# ¿ May 23, 2019 21:55

mawarannahr: May 21, 2019

Learn to code🤡

# ¿ Jun 15, 2019 09:56

mawarannahr: May 21, 2019

The Protagonist posted:

Well I was about 2k posts behind and then I just powerslammed the backlog and, uh, wouldn't recommend.

This thread�ll put you back on SSRIs

# ¿ Jun 18, 2019 08:19

mawarannahr: May 21, 2019

lol i was just reading about Ted Turner on Wikipedia, as one does at this hour, and found this cool bit

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ted_Turner posted:

In 2008, Turner asserted on PBS's Charlie Rose television program that if steps are not taken to address global warming, most people would die and "the rest of us will be cannibals". Turner also said in the interview that he advocated Americans having no more than two children. In 2010, he stated that China's one-child policy should be implemented. (47)

mawarannahr has issued a correction as of 08:46 on Jun 25, 2019

# ¿ Jun 25, 2019 08:44

mawarannahr: May 21, 2019

Isn�t there a hikikomori tips thread in PYF already?

# ¿ Jul 1, 2019 05:20

mawarannahr: May 21, 2019

The Protagonist posted:

Somebody channeled a bunch of Rime effort posts, crushed them up and snorted them to make this video. It belongs here in any case.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YsA3PK8bQd8

december 2017? im not watching until theres an update that takes into consideration all the bad poo poo that's come to light since then.

# ¿ Jul 2, 2019 07:31

mawarannahr: May 21, 2019

Wow, I never thought that it could get so heated here

# ¿ Jul 5, 2019 01:42

mawarannahr: May 21, 2019

If you are white, American, decently privileged, have a college degree, and currently hold down a professional job that doesn�t involve mitigating the consequences you�re basically stealing from the rest of the world

# ¿ Jul 22, 2019 05:28

mawarannahr: May 21, 2019

these people have the power to contribute to a difference in an order of magnitude in deaths. exceptions: supporting your local communities, so long as they aren�t gated. let�s say private sector PMC and web devs / engineers who are comfortable for now.

mawarannahr has issued a correction as of 05:37 on Jul 22, 2019

# ¿ Jul 22, 2019 05:33

mawarannahr: May 21, 2019

Kindest Forums User posted:

this is so loving stupid. small and medium sized institutions very often experience a structural change due to the championing of a single person or a small group of individuals. People that are passionate, hard-working, and dedicated make a huge difference.
These individuals aren't super genius or anything, they're just hardworking and committed. That's loving it.
Sure we're not going to be able tear down capitalism at this stage. But capitalism's contradictions are becoming more and more apparent, and eventually the conditions may be ripe for transition away from capitalism. But if people are simply giving up, and there are no champions to help usher a better world, then that leaves the reactionaries as leaders in the new world.

this is true. most people reading this thread can probably make a difference. if you think it�s all hosed, next time you think of flying somewhere for vacation buy one for someone else, someone less privileged, who never had a vacation instead

mawarannahr has issued a correction as of 05:47 on Jul 22, 2019

# ¿ Jul 22, 2019 05:45

mawarannahr: May 21, 2019

Crazypoops posted:

Yes we'll just death and tragedy offset our way out of this.

If we just buy enough Disneyland trips for South America they'll stop burning down the last of the rain forest

please read what I said carefully. if you are comfortable and have been on international vacations for touristic purposes before, and if you think it�s all hosed and you were going to fly somewhere anyway, give the tickets to somebody else. if you truly believe it�s hosed but still have enough empathy to recognize that you got way the gently caress more out of the world than what you were due, at the expense largely of people who are not white Americans both in the U.S. and around the world, this is what you should do.

mawarannahr has issued a correction as of 06:24 on Jul 22, 2019

# ¿ Jul 22, 2019 06:19

mawarannahr: May 21, 2019

Torpor posted:

wow look at this Polly-Anna.

if you think a difference can be made it�s because you are a nuclear armed eco terrorist cause that�s the throw weight you�re gonna need. otherwise don�t come into this thread and put on a clown show for idiots using $10 words like privilege.

feel free to go buy indulgences for your climate-sins however; in 100 years no one will remember you or the sum of your efforts, no matter how many vegan burgers you eat.

you god drat idiot. there is a real difference to be made in whether 250 billion people are going to die or just 25 billion, how quickly that will happen, and where that will happen. that poo poo is happening now anyway. if you have the knowledge and means to fight tropical disease and improve drinking water for people in the global south, and instead you�re programming marketing models for Amazon, I encourage you to explore nihilism as far as it goes immediately. I kind of assume we are hosed too, but have some empathy with the rest of the world. I don�t tell people the former part in real life. but there absolutely are differences you can make.

ps don�t fly at all. I�m just trying to show what I think is true: most people are selfish and don�t want to do anything but are too cowardly to give anything up. if you�re white and privileged and have enjoyed the fruits of the world , that means you buddy. give someone else your gifts. humanity can at least die with honour

# ¿ Jul 22, 2019 19:41

mawarannahr: May 21, 2019

Socks4Hands posted:

remember, if you can learn to program nothing else can really actually be difficult and you're smart enough to do it well!

this is literally what I�m doing though. all organizations these days have data needs and other computer touching needs too., so if you�re a professional Python / r / sql / whatever wizard, there is plenty of stuff to do, but your salary will take a significant haircut.

I really don�t care about vacations or a house or investments or whatever anymore, so I don�t give a gently caress. I also have no car and no children, and just a bunch of student debt. I�m also insane and I know that this is not something everyone can do, but I�m saying it�s possible.

I don�t want to do this poo poo at all! I am from somewhere else and I lived there and was doing OK until some assholes in America stared automating my job, so I got back to get a professional degree in that poo poo and now I�m on the west coast. Nobody even considers nonprofit work because they�re told in our career centers that it�s poisonous for your resume. There are people reading this who are in a better position than I am who are doing gently caress all and it pisses me off and it makes me hate this country, which has made my own country unlivable through its actions.

Bernie campaign is still hiring data engineers iirc

mawarannahr has issued a correction as of 20:18 on Jul 22, 2019

# ¿ Jul 22, 2019 20:05

mawarannahr: May 21, 2019

Torpor posted:

if the tech industry was a country wouldn�t it be like the 3rd most polluting?

welcome to team death cult!

that�s right , deep learning is especially bad. it�s why we need to refocus on simpler models that may require a lot more domain knowledge and consider alternatives that might use a lot less power and be more explainable and maintainable. this is the radical potential of linear regression over nonlinear neural networks!!!

# ¿ Jul 22, 2019 20:15

mawarannahr: May 21, 2019

Admiral Ray posted:

yes that's why that was a joke. point is the moralizing of individual CO2 emissions is ethically tricky and kind of self defeating.

�it�s too hard to think about so I can�t be bothered. more berders� is what I hear when Americans say this stuff

# ¿ Jul 22, 2019 20:23

mawarannahr: May 21, 2019

Americans are worse than French or Chinese in relation to the role they play on this comedy.

# ¿ Jul 22, 2019 20:29

mawarannahr: May 21, 2019

in the earlier stages we are all going to be forced to use lovely vr to save on telecommuting and building heating costs, and we will grow more used to it as going outside will increasingly suck each day.

# ¿ Sep 27, 2019 21:11

mawarannahr: May 21, 2019

Rime posted:

The jet stream failed and the Arctic briefly prolapsed down southwards.

Similarly we had a straight up blizzard here in Ontario a week and a half ago and today it is 36*c and 100% humidity.

36 C wet bulb already? RIP

# ¿ May 26, 2020 17:42

mawarannahr: May 21, 2019

holy poo poo that Climate Mann has got my blood boiling like it was the ocean. powerful WHO/CDC saying there won�t be a pandemic vibes. I hope he drowns.

# ¿ Nov 13, 2020 15:49

mawarannahr: May 21, 2019

[url posted:

https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/climate-change-crisis-tipping-point-world-warm-b1721822.html[/url]]

Is the climate crisis pushing the world towards a �point of no return�?
A new study claims we may have already reached a hypothetical �point of no return�, but other researchers say this is �at odds� with what we know about climate science. Daisy Dunne examines the arguments

Daisy Dunne21 hours ago
I
f global greenhouse gas emissions stopped tomorrow, how much warmer would the world get?

It�s a question with no simple answer. Even if humans quit polluting the world overnight, scientists say it would take many decades for the Earth�s climate to reach a new equilibrium. This is largely linked to how heat is stored in the world�s oceans, which can, in turn, have an influence on air temperatures.

Matters might be complicated further by potential �tipping points� in nature that might be triggered by global warming.

For example, rising temperatures are causing permafrost, frozen ground found in high northern latitudes that stores vast amounts of carbon, to thaw out. This thawing causes more carbon to be released into the atmosphere, which, in turn, is adding to rising temperatures. There is a worry that such positive �feedback loops� could ultimately lead to rapid heating, and limiting global warming is important for avoiding such feedbacks.

A new study, published today in the journal Scientific Reports, makes the bold claim that, hypothetically speaking, we could �already [be] past a point of no return for global warming�.

Using a simplistic mathematical model, it simulates what would happen in a hypothetical world where greenhouse gas emissions were stopped in 2020. It finds that, in the simulations, the world continues to heat up for hundreds of years as a result of positive feedback loops such as permafrost thaw.

However, leading climate scientists from across the UK and beyond have urged people to take the results of the new study with extreme caution.

Prof Richard Betts MBE, chair of climate impacts of the University of Exeter and the Met Office, told The Independent: �Having talked to various colleagues, we don�t think there�s any credibility in the model.

�Feedbacks are important. The possibility of eventually becoming committed to long-term climate change is important. But there is no real evidence that this has already happened.�

Because the model used in the new study is simplistic, it does not well simulate important climate feedback loops, Prof Betts explains.

In addition to permafrost thaw, the melting of Arctic sea ice is also an important potential feedback. Warming of the world�s oceans and atmosphere is causing the ice to melt at an astonishing rate. Bright white ice reflects away sunlight, and, once it disappears, the exposed dark ocean begins to absorb more sunlight, heating the ocean further � leading to further ice melting.

<p>Sea ice is melting at an alarming rate, says scientists</p>
Sea ice is melting at an alarming rate, says scientists
(AP)
Though this feedback is important to take into consideration, the model used in the new study does not well simulate how it works, says Prof Betts.

The results also stand in contradiction with the findings of the upcoming assessment report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), an independent group made up of the world�s leading climate scientists.

�The results presented in the paper are interesting but are really at odds with the science community�s understanding of how the climate is changing,� says Prof James Renwick, head of the school of geography, environment and earth sciences at the Victoria University of Wellington.

�The latest round of climate model simulations show that if greenhouse gas emissions were to stop immediately, there is likely to be very little further increase in temperatures and no sign of warming resuming in future.�

The models used by the IPCC are more advanced and better able to simulate the behaviour of the Earth�s feedback loops, says Prof Mark Maslin, a climate scientist at University College London.

�These results do need to be confirmed by more complex climate models used in the IPCC reports, because these results come from one model which has not undergone the rigorous cross checking and testing that is usual for climate models,� he says.

In their paper, the authors note the simplicity of their model by saying that they �encourage other model builders to explore our discovery in their [bigger] models, and report on their findings�.

It is important to understand that it is not too late to take actions to address the climate crisis, says Prof Betts: �I really wouldn�t want people to take [the research paper] seriously and start getting worried that the climate catastrophe is now unavoidable.�

Claims that the world is �doomed� to suffer extremely high levels of warming can be detrimental to global efforts to tackle the climate crisis, explains Leo Barasi, author of the Climate Majority.

�Claims the world is irreversibly doomed to runaway warming, and no amount of emission cuts can help us, can always find an audience, just like claims that climate change is nothing to worry about,� he told The Independent.

�But these assertions usually rest on outlying studies or data that�s been taken out of context and ignore all the opposing evidence.

�Telling the world that we�re doomed, when that's not backed up by the evidence, is irresponsible and unlikely to motivate the urgent action that can still prevent disastrous warming.�

�It�s wrong because it�s simple and we don�t like it and it�s scary, but we have nothing else to say so try to write as weaselly as possible�

# ¿ Nov 13, 2020 16:03

mawarannahr: May 21, 2019

Taintrunner posted:

Jordan Peterson is not a climate scientist, he's a psychologist or some dumb poo poo like that, and he's one of the loving dumbest in his field.

the scientific research he has done is more competent methodologically than average in the field

# ¿ Feb 4, 2021 23:22

mawarannahr: May 21, 2019

Hodgepodge posted:

no one does scientific research on jungian psychoanalysis

no, the scientific research Jordan Peterson had to do while getting his degree led to some published works that, as far as I can remember, were determined by some measure of reproducibility (r-index, maybe?) to be more competently performed and people who worked with him at that time remarked on his competence. this is more of an issue in social psychology.

mawarannahr has issued a correction as of 22:43 on Feb 7, 2021

# ¿ Feb 7, 2021 22:37

mawarannahr: May 21, 2019

CODChimera posted:

yeah same. overloaded refugee camps/slums, terrorism, everyone depressed etc

in other news, the XR NZ facebook page has had enough of all the negative news and is restricting it to one thread so people don't get too sad or something

the brain rot of Mods will be the ruin of any hope. as ever, as always.

# ¿ Mar 19, 2021 07:04

mawarannahr: May 21, 2019

Shipon posted:

This is probably the fate of all industrial civilizations that ever arose in the universe. The forces that lead a species to develop into an industrial civilization preclude them from being able to reign in their consumption enough to be sustainable.

you�re letting us off the hook. what if it�s just us who are the idiots?

# ¿ Mar 19, 2021 07:16

mawarannahr: May 21, 2019

Tekne posted:

Hell, traditional Chinese "medicine" managed to destroy the Vaquita, the world's smallest cetacean that lives only in Baja California's waters. At the very least, the CCP is consistent in their utter disregard for life whether it be human or animals of all stripes. It must be hard living up to 5,000 years of failure.

your effort at appearing really racist has been very successful, congrats! critical support for achievement.

# ¿ Mar 20, 2021 08:44

mawarannahr: May 21, 2019

Saki posted:

that's not racist you moron

I think you should stfu for 5000 years

# ¿ Mar 20, 2021 15:54

mawarannahr: May 21, 2019

Tekne posted:

Massive lmao at making fun of a CCP slogan somehow being racist you loving donkey. They aren�t a stand in for Chinese people, especially since they are their greatest oppressor and victimizer. Also, since this apparently needs clarification, I think they like the other super powers have little regard for life. Doesn�t change the key roll TCM has had in obliterating random rear end species all over the planet.

Do better next time, buddy.

# ¿ Mar 20, 2021 16:24

mawarannahr: May 21, 2019

stop making GBS threads orientalist tripe on the climate thread in the one forum that isn�t overflowing with said tripe and carry on doomposting.

# ¿ Mar 20, 2021 16:38

mawarannahr: May 21, 2019

Bathtub Cheese posted:

China is good and the US is bad.

# ¿ Mar 20, 2021 16:58

mawarannahr: May 21, 2019

the capitalist dick gets cured and softened in prison. lol if you�re chewing on the ones still hard from screwing your over.

# ¿ Mar 20, 2021 21:22

mawarannahr: May 21, 2019

Now here�s something that has promise. T is on its way out, anyway � what if we loaded up vaccines with endocrine disrupters and something that causes a meat allergy?

quote:

Testosterone reduces generosity through cortical and subcortical mechanisms
Jianxin Ou, Yin Wu, Yang Hu, Xiaoxue Gao, Hong Li, Philippe N. Tobler
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Mar 2021, 118 (12) e2021745118; DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2021745118

https://www.pnas.org/content/118/12/e2021745118

Testosterone is associated with aggressive behavior in both animals and humans. Here, we establish a link between increased testosterone and selfishness in economic decision making and identify the neural mechanisms through which testosterone reduces generosity in a double-blind, placebo-controlled, between-participant study. We find that testosterone induces more selfish choices, particularly when distant others are concerned. Moreover, it disrupts the representation of other-regarding value in local activity and functional connectivity involving the temporoparietal junction and subcortical regions involved in reward processing. Our study provides causal evidence for a testosterone-mediated neurohormonal link between generosity and the valuation system.

Abstract

Recent evidence has linked testosterone, a major sex hormone, to selfishness in economic decision-making. Here, we aimed to investigate the neural mechanisms through which testosterone reduces generosity by combining functional MRI with pharmacological manipulation among healthy young males in a double-blind, placebo-controlled, between-subject design. After testosterone or placebo gel administration, participants performed a social discounting task in which they chose between selfish options (benefiting only the participant) and generous options (providing also some benefit to another person at a particular social distance). At the behavioral level, testosterone reduced generosity compared to the placebo. At the neural level (n = 60), the temporoparietal junction (TPJ) encoded the other-regarding value of the generous option during generous choices, and this effect was attenuated by testosterone, suggesting that testosterone reduced the consideration of other�s welfare as underpinned by TPJ activity. Moreover, TPJ activity more strongly reflected individual differences in generosity in the placebo than the testosterone group. Furthermore, testosterone weakened the relation between the other-regarding value of generous decisions and connectivity between the TPJ and a region extending from the insula into the striatum. Together, these findings suggest that a network encompassing both cortical and subcortical components underpins the effects of testosterone on social preferences.

mawarannahr has issued a correction as of 03:27 on Mar 21, 2021

# ¿ Mar 21, 2021 02:59

mawarannahr: May 21, 2019

crazy eyes mustafa posted:

every country that pulls poo poo out of the ground is bad

for fun, google what % of mining companies are based in canada. Canada is a legal fiction to facilitate resource extraction (oil, timber, minerals) for the anglo american world empire

Canadian industry is so rapacious that there are several Canadian companies mining for gold across Turkey that draw international condemnation for corruption, violation of human rights, and environmental destruction. The CEOs of Canadian companies argue and cyanide is essential to their operations, so they will reserve the right to use it even if their licenses are expired and it�s illegal for them to do so. If Turkey can credibly accuse you of doing horrible poo poo like this, you have hosed up.

Centerra Gold

quote:

https://m.bianet.org/english/human-rights/236235-criminal-complaint-against-mining-company-it-is-a-crime-against-humanity

In late November 2020, Canada-capital company Centerra Mining Inc. started prospecting by drilling in a field which was previously designated as a plantation area with pine trees in the Derinkuyu Underground City in the southern part of �zkonak town in Avanos, Nevşehir.

Young pine trees in the middle of a steppe were uprooted with excavators and earth-diggers as part of these activities.

The town's drinking water and agricultural irrigation water as well as the irrigation water of K�ybağı and new drinking water wells of Avanos district are reportedly located in this region.

While the Centerra Gold company has also been operating a gold mining and flotation facility in Develi, Kayseri since 2015, it is alleged that 5 thousand people were poisoned after 1.7 tons of cyanide was mixed with water in another gold mine operated by the company in Kyrgyzstan in 1998. (TP/SD)
Criminal complaint against mining company: �It is a crime against humanity�

The people of �zkonak town in Nevşehir province have appealed to the International Criminal Court and filed a criminal complaint against the executives of the Canadian Centerra Gold Company on charge of �committing a crime against humanity�.

Alamos Gold:

quote:

https://m.bianet.org/english/environment/211443-resistance-for-ida-mountains-is-deep-political-agenda-alamos-gold-ceo-says

In early 2000s, the General Directorate of Mineral Research and Exploration (MTA) and the Ministry of Energy explored and mapped the mineral deposits in the region. The Law on Mines was amended after 2002 and mine exploration licenses were granted to companies.

When the calendars hit 2010s, the mine exploration licenses were converted to operating licenses. Enterprises started to be established after 2017. People raised their concerns over the destruction of trees in that period as well and organized protest demonstrations.

Having started its operations in the region within this context, the Canada-based Alamos Gold company and its subcontractor Doğu Biga Mining has been cutting trees in Kirazlı since 2017.

While the Environmental Impact Assessment foresaw the cutting of 45 thousand trees, the company cut down 195 thousand trees. After the images and videos of the deforestation have circulated on social media, people from all parts of society have influxed to �anakkale.

Led by �anakkale Municipality, the local community and environmental activists have been keeping a "Water and Conscience" watch in an area near the mining site since July 26. (PT/SD)

quote:

https://m.bianet.org/english/environment/224559-alamos-gold-should-be-evacuated-from-ida-mountains

As many as 209 civil society organizations and people, including MPs, have warned the authorities to stop all gold mine projects around Ida (Kaz) Mountains in �anakkele province and evacuate the Alamos Gold firm, the license of which expired on October 13, 2019, and was not renewed.

"As in many regions of our country, the Ida Mountains are threatened especially by gold mining projects. Almost all parts of the region are licensed and sold to domestic and foreign companies," they said in an open letter.

CLICK - Tree Woman: If am a Provocateur, Then I am a Provocateur of Nature

The most advanced project among them is the Kirazlı Gold Mine Project, which is owned by Doğu Biga Mining company, the subsidiary of the Canada-based Alamos Gold, the letter says.

The company's operations in the area caused public outrage in July 2019 after photos of cutting down of trees emerged. Environmental defenders say that more than 300,000 trees were cut down during the construction of the gold mine.

In late July, activists started a "Water and Conscience Watch," which is still going on. As the letter notes, they were fined many times because of "illegal accommodation."

CLICK - Water and Conscience Watch on its 15th Day: 'There is Freedom Wherever You Are'

Most recently, the activists were asked to leave the area after an order by the Provincial Public Hygiene Committee due to the Covid-19 outbreak and fined 57,240 lira (~8,400 USD) for illegal accommodation, according to the letter. "Those who should leave the area are not the life defenders but Alamos Gold, which continues to occupy Kirazlı although its license expired on October 13, 2019, and was not renewed."

"In the Ida Mountains, Alamos Gold also has Mount Ağı and �amyurt projects. After reactions, the �amyurt project has been withdrawn for now. Apart from these projects, there are dozens of more projects. It is observed that there are various developments in the surrounding villages regarding the Halilağa Project, which was sold to Cengiz Holding," the letter further says.

CLICK - Ida Mountains: Alamos Gold 'Continues to Cut Down Trees Despite Suspended License'

Following demands from authorities are listed in the letter:

All gold mining projects in the Ida Mountains should be urgently dropped, and all licenses and allocations should be canceled.
The Mining Law and Regulation should be rewritten in an open, democratic and participatory way with the participation of environmental and ecology organizations, relevant professional chambers and bar associations. The cyanide leaching method used in gold mines should be banned as it poses a threat to public health.
Alamos Gold (Doğu Biga Mining) should be urgently evacuated from Kirazlı and all projects of the company should be canceled.
In order to prevent other companies from setting their sights on Kirazlı with similar projects and to repair the destruction of the ecosystem, the area that was trimmed due to the Kirazlı Gold Mining Project should be rehabilitated with ecological methods.
Local people's demand for jobs and employment should not be met through mining companies but by the public by projects that suit the region and prioritize ecological agriculture and tourism.
All fines against life defenders should be canceled. (EMK/VK)

- gently caress Canada

- gently caress Canadians who think they�re better than everyone

- gently caress the cyanide-laced Canadian Blood Gold that fuels their neoliberal designs upon the world

mawarannahr has issued a correction as of 18:44 on Mar 21, 2021

# ¿ Mar 21, 2021 18:42

mawarannahr: May 21, 2019

The Canadian perceives the world as though it were a maple tree to penetrate with taps until it bleeds dry

# ¿ Mar 21, 2021 19:10

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# ¿ Apr 26, 2024 04:31

mawarannahr: May 21, 2019

Raine posted:

broke: US is bad

woke: canada is bad

bespoke: new zealand is bad

New Zealand is bad:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-03-16/new-zealand-rivers-pollution-100-per-cent-pure/13236174

quote:

New Zealand�s troubled waters

New Zealand�s waterways are some of the most degraded in the developed world. Will the Ardern government clean it up or will Māori take control?

# ¿ Mar 21, 2021 19:51

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > C-SPAM > Climate Change: hope for the biggest I told you so of all time is what fuels us

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