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Bear Retrieval Unit
Nov 5, 2009

Mudslide Experiment
actually, running my own advanced computer simulation RA3, the US totally wins and banishes the opposition leader to space.

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Prav
Oct 29, 2011

redneck nazgul posted:

they're pretty good for humanitarian efforts

not as good as "not doing an imperialism to begin with" but having a floating city that you can just pop down next to a disaster area is pretty good

lmao

Ardennes posted:

(not so much its surface navy).

have russians ever sailed a ship succesfully

Ardennes
May 12, 2002

Fuligin posted:

pln tryna storm taiwan would be such a shitshow can you even imagine

The PLN isn't going to need to, the independence movement is pretty much DOA at this point.

Prav posted:

have russians ever sailed a ship succesfully

Eh, they beat up the Ottomans pretty bad on occasion. Surface navies aren't they strong suit, but their modern subs are supposedly actually pretty good. At this point, I think most of their surface ships exist to keep NATO away from Murmansk/Sevastopol. Their strategy in the Arctic is subcentric.

Ardennes has issued a correction as of 21:22 on Mar 11, 2019

Al!
Apr 2, 2010

:coolspot::coolspot::coolspot::coolspot::coolspot:

Al!
Apr 2, 2010

:coolspot::coolspot::coolspot::coolspot::coolspot:
this is why we need to get the goldeneye satellite up and running

twoday
May 4, 2005



C-SPAM Times best-selling author

Pener Kropoopkin posted:

"Things that sail on the surface of the sea are going to have a hard time," Ochmanek said.

https://twitter.com/uradn/status/1103544137037504512?s=19

https://twitter.com/China_SCS_info/status/1104354520178470912?s=19

https://twitter.com/AsiaMTI/status/1102931778497667072?s=19

Pener Kropoopkin
Jan 30, 2013

LGD posted:

yes, we all remember how Trump's missile strike on Shayrat back in 2017 completely obliterated the Syrian air force in a single blow and completely prevented their ability to use that base forever, and we're definitely sure none of this "targeting fixed facilities," "hitting planes on the ground," and "degrading command and control" works in reverse or would have any impact on an adversary's ability to target US airbases at optimal times

You can't act this smug if you're being stupid.

Ardennes
May 12, 2002
The Syrians were almost certainly warned by the Russians, and we warned the Russians because we are in reality scared of Russian nukes.

(I think the USAF is more likely to be grounded by a lack of spare parts for the F-35 though.)

Typo
Aug 19, 2009

Chernigov Military Aviation Lyceum
The Fighting Slowpokes

LGD posted:

yes, we all remember how Trump's missile strike on Shayrat back in 2017 completely obliterated the Syrian air force in a single blow and completely prevented their ability to use that base forever, and we're definitely sure none of this "targeting fixed facilities," "hitting planes on the ground," and "degrading command and control" works in reverse or would have any impact on an adversary's ability to target US airbases at optimal times

that poo poo works for like 6 hours but if you assume the conventional war is only gonna last a week disabling an airfield for like 6 hours is pretty significant

Yuli Ban
Nov 22, 2016

Bot
I remember a similar war game from 2002 proved that the USA would job to Iran. And we still would.
The cold fact is that the USA is not ready to fight a full-fledged war. We like shouting that we're 2-0 back-to-back World War champions when we came in at the last minute in World War I, reinvigorating the Entente just enough to obtain victory; we did fairly well in World War II, but the European theatre of the war was actually won by the Russians; we crushed North Korea but got crushed by China and just stayed there, dying like dumbasses until we decided to go home and tried to pretend it didn't happen.

Then we spent the next 65 years bombing and losing to peasant farmers in new, exotic locations and declaring ourselves the strongest, most unbeatable military on Earth.

We're so used to insurgents, suicide bombers, guerrilla tactics, and asymmetrical warfare that we would suffer a collective breakdown of our national psyche if we actually faced an actual military. Like Russia circa 1905.
The only exception was Iraq, who we blitzed twice. You know, the same Iraq that spent eight years failing to invade and dying to an internally-disorganized, geopolitically-ignored Iran despite having the backing of both the USA and the USSR during the height of the Cold War.

Yuli Ban has issued a correction as of 21:28 on Mar 11, 2019

Cerebral Bore
Apr 21, 2010


Fun Shoe

Fuligin posted:

pln tryna storm taiwan would be such a shitshow can you even imagine

They won't have to. If they get naval superiority they could just blockade Taiwan into submission.

Typo
Aug 19, 2009

Chernigov Military Aviation Lyceum
The Fighting Slowpokes

Ardennes posted:

The PLN isn't going to need to, the independence movement is pretty much DOA at this point.
yeah the real question is is China going to be happy with the status quo "not independence" forever


storming taiwan btw is gonna be like 1000x harder than most people realize

Typo
Aug 19, 2009

Chernigov Military Aviation Lyceum
The Fighting Slowpokes

Cerebral Bore posted:

They won't have to. If they get naval superiority they could just blockade Taiwan into submission.

the problem is that you are gonna end up firing on EU/USA/Japan/Indian w/e flagged ships at some point

you really dont' want that

redneck nazgul
Apr 25, 2013

millenium challenge isn't representative of anything because the red team violated the laws of physics and then yelled about it

good ideas, bad execution

the underlying principle is correct, though: our giant war machine is only suitable for fighting other giant war machines, preferably if the other giant war machine has tuckered itself out by beating the poo poo out of our allies first

Mrs. Dash
Apr 11, 2009

The Glumslinger posted:

Because they high ranking officers would probably get fired as congress/executive branch tries to find competent people to turn poo poo around, and the MIC would be forced to stop profiteering like crazy and actually spend the money effectively. SO its better for them to just pretend that the status quo is cool and good

LMAO buddy have I got some news for you about the military procurement process, pentagon promotions, and post-military careers in the MIC. The military absolutely looks for results that aren't "US killed everyone and nobody died" so they can go scaremonger in congress with them to stop boondoggle weapon programs from being cancelled. If you keep going to congress with stories about how the military is unstoppable then they start cancelling programs that generals need for promotions and post-military "thanks for buying this poo poo from us" positions with the MIC.

The right also does this on behalf of the military and MIC directly. For example, this report by our favorite boys, the Heritage Foundation: https://www.heritage.org/sites/default/files/2017-10/2018_IndexOfUSMilitaryStrength-2.pdf

Cerebral Bore
Apr 21, 2010


Fun Shoe

Typo posted:

the problem is that you are gonna end up firing on EU/USA/Japan/Indian w/e flagged ships at some point

you really dont' want that

No neutral country will try to run a blockade in this day and age, you dingus.

Typo
Aug 19, 2009

Chernigov Military Aviation Lyceum
The Fighting Slowpokes

Cerebral Bore posted:

No neutral country will try to run a blockade in this day and age, you dingus.

sure, w/e you say military expert cerebral bore

Pener Kropoopkin
Jan 30, 2013

Cerebral Bore posted:

No neutral country will try to run a blockade in this day and age, you dingus.

Well I've got a ship here that made the Malacca run in 12 hours.

Cerebral Bore
Apr 21, 2010


Fun Shoe

Typo posted:

sure, w/e you say military expert cerebral bore

I see you've fallen back on the old trick of not even trying to defend your position, and you don't need to be an expert on strategy to tell how that usually ends.

Fuligin
Oct 27, 2010

wait what the fuck??

look until the millenium dawn mod team completes their code merge and updates for 'Ironclad' 1.6 HoI IV this is all just idle speculation

Pener Kropoopkin
Jan 30, 2013

Fuligin posted:

look until the millenium dawn mod team completes their code merge and updates for 'Ironclad' 1.6 HoI IV this is all just idle speculation

Now that Man the Guns is out we can experiment with anti-missile cruisers where all the modules are anti-missile missiles.

General Dog
Apr 26, 2008

Everybody's working for the weekend

Yuli Ban posted:

The cold fact is that the USA is not ready to fight a full-fledged war. We like shouting that we're 2-0 back-to-back World War champions when we came in at the last minute in World War I, reinvigorating the Entente just enough to obtain victory; we did fairly well in World War II, but the European theatre of the war was actually won by the Russians; we crushed North Korea but got crushed by China and just stayed there, dying like dumbasses until we decided to go home and tried to pretend it didn't happen.

Then we spent the next 65 years bombing and losing to peasant farmers in new, exotic locations and declaring ourselves the strongest, most unbeatable military on Earth.

We're so used to insurgents, suicide bombers, guerrilla tactics, and asymmetrical warfare that we would suffer a collective breakdown of our national psyche if we actually faced an actual military. Like Russia circa 1905.
The only exception was Iraq, who we blitzed twice. You know, the same Iraq that spent eight years failing to invade and dying to an internally-disorganized, geopolitically-ignored Iran despite having the backing of both the USA and the USSR during the height of the Cold War.

The only way to get better is to get more reps.

redneck nazgul
Apr 25, 2013

Fuligin posted:

look until the millenium dawn mod team completes their code merge and updates for 'Ironclad' 1.6 HoI IV this is all just idle speculation

bug fix: bubba gump shrimp boat no longer capsizes when fitted with anti ship missiles
bug fix: motorcycle couriers now properly transmit messages at speed of light, not speed of motorcycle

Ardennes
May 12, 2002

Typo posted:

yeah the real question is is China going to be happy with the status quo "not independence" forever


storming taiwan btw is gonna be like 1000x harder than most people realize

They will probably just keep the current strategy of just slowly connecting Taiwan to the mainland more and more to the point their two economies are practically intertwined and then push for political concessions. I could see Senkaku/Diaoyu being more of a flash point (China probably could just land there.)

twoday
May 4, 2005



C-SPAM Times best-selling author
Every few years the Russian military brags about having invented some bizarre James bond villain style superweapon like vacuum bombs or tidal wave-causing drone nukes and they've been actually fighting wars the last few years, but then again you also have ridiculously poor displays of their stuff when it actually needs to function, like when the Admiral Kosnitsov went to Syria and blackened the skies of Europe with its smoking engine

Victory Position
Mar 16, 2004

isn't the design of the Chinese military focused on rapid response? you know, the Hilux kind of deal, not the bottomless pit of infinite tanks and Ospreys

Typo
Aug 19, 2009

Chernigov Military Aviation Lyceum
The Fighting Slowpokes

Cerebral Bore posted:

I see you've fallen back on the old trick of not even trying to defend your position, and you don't need to be an expert on strategy to tell how that usually ends.

Yes comrade Cerebral "Zhukov" Bore, in the event where there are pictures of starving taiwanese on the internet, no organization, government or private, nor individuals, would ever send a ship flagged under _____ to push or test the Chinese blockade

Wheeee
Mar 11, 2001

When a tree grows, it is soft and pliable. But when it's dry and hard, it dies.

Hardness and strength are death's companions. Flexibility and softness are the embodiment of life.

That which has become hard shall not triumph.

remember how WW1 started out with old world technology and tactics and rapidly turned into a nightmarish horror show once chemical and heavy weapons development really got rolling? remember how WW2 started out with updated WW1 poo poo and ended with pressurized modern aircraft dropping nuclear bombs?

WW3, or any major conflict, is going to result in a similar level of rapid technological advancements. It'll start with the updated cold war era thinking and tech that America is currently using to kill poor people who live in huts, but it'll end with some loving insane horrific poo poo like targetable bioweapons and mass automated weapon platform swarms

https://youtu.be/CGAk5gRD-t0

https://youtu.be/ldFWBdVnuFU

Typo
Aug 19, 2009

Chernigov Military Aviation Lyceum
The Fighting Slowpokes

Ardennes posted:

They will probably just keep the current strategy of just slowly connecting Taiwan to the mainland more and more to the point their two economies are practically intertwined and then push for political concessions. I could see Senkaku/Diaoyu being more of a flash point (China probably could just land there.)

I agree with this as the most optimal strategy for the PRC, the question is whether the current leadership will opt for patience beyond 2040

redneck nazgul
Apr 25, 2013

i can't wait until i get sent forward 10000 years in time to fight the aggressive invaders, only to come back and find out that earth is now super gay and multiracial

Pener Kropoopkin
Jan 30, 2013

Wheeee posted:

remember how WW1 started out with old world technology and tactics and rapidly turned into a nightmarish horror show once chemical and heavy weapons development really got rolling? remember how WW2 started out with updated WW1 poo poo and ended with pressurized modern aircraft dropping nuclear bombs?

WW3, or any major conflict, is going to result in a similar level of rapid technological advancements. It'll start with the updated cold war era thinking and tech that America is currently using to kill poor people who live in huts, but it'll end with some loving insane horrific poo poo like targetable bioweapons and mass automated weapon platform swarms

https://youtu.be/CGAk5gRD-t0

https://youtu.be/ldFWBdVnuFU

Any conventional war in the 21st century is never going to last that long. Especially not if nukes are involved. WW1 didn't end in a significantly advanced stage of technology compared to how it began either. Everybody started out with barbed wire, machineguns, mass artillery, and poison gas and they ended with the same. Tanks were new, but they figured out how to counter tanks with massed artillery and anti-tank rifles pretty quickly. A case like World War 2 where technology can rapidly advance like that based on pre-existing development paths isn't going to happen again. There isn't some kind of great leap forward from stealth fighters, ballistic missiles, and nuclear submarines to some other sort of revolutionary weapons platform and doctrine. Technology doesn't magically advance under pressure like that. The industrial conditions of the early 20th century were still catching up with what science and engineers could conceive of.

"Wunderwaffe" are a waste in systemic material terms. The only wunderwaffe that made any difference was the nuclear weapon, and that's still highly debatable.

Mrs. Dash
Apr 11, 2009

Victory Position posted:

isn't the design of the Chinese military focused on rapid response? you know, the Hilux kind of deal, not the bottomless pit of infinite tanks and Ospreys

The design of the chinese military is focused on "putting down internal revolts" and "sinking carrier fleets with ASMs"

Typo
Aug 19, 2009

Chernigov Military Aviation Lyceum
The Fighting Slowpokes

Pener Kropoopkin posted:

Any conventional war in the 21st century is never going to last that long. Especially not if nukes are involved. WW1 didn't end in a significantly advanced stage of technology compared to how it began either. Everybody started out with barbed wire, machineguns, mass artillery, and poison gas and they ended with the same. Tanks were new, but they figured out how to counter tanks with massed artillery and anti-tank rifles pretty quickly. A case like World War 2 where technology can rapidly advance like that based on pre-existing development paths isn't going to happen again. There isn't some kind of great leap forward from stealth fighters, ballistic missiles, and nuclear submarines to some other sort of revolutionary weapons platform and doctrine. Technology doesn't magically advance under pressure like that. The industrial conditions of the early 20th century were still catching up with what science and engineers could conceive of.

idk about the last part dude, hypersonic weapons are pretty big new thing nowadays for instance

also there's all sorts of a.i or w/e development kept under wraps by US/China/Russian MICs so there's no telling what could happen once they unwrap them to fight

Cerebral Bore
Apr 21, 2010


Fun Shoe

Typo posted:

Yes comrade Cerebral "Zhukov" Bore, in the event where there are pictures of starving taiwanese on the internet, no organization, government or private, nor individuals, would ever send a ship flagged under _____ to push or test the Chinese blockade

Making arguments presupposed on the idea that the west actually gives a poo poo about people starving somewhere very far away and furthermore would piss off the country making all their consumer goods because of that just smacks of desperation, fyi.

Ardennes
May 12, 2002

Typo posted:

I agree with this as the most optimal strategy for the PRC, the question is whether the current leadership will opt for patience beyond 2040

40% of Taiwanese exports go to China, it is probably already too late. I guess they could "go nuts", but their strategy is clearly already working. It will probably just be a process of slowly wearing them down and they forcing them into some type of loose-EU style political pact. China really isn't interested in getting rid of the Taiwanese military, the Taiwanese dollar or even ruling Taiwan directly, but to essentially take Taiwan out of the geopolitical equation.

In contrast, the hatred toward Japan is real.

Ardennes has issued a correction as of 21:56 on Mar 11, 2019

LGD
Sep 25, 2004

Ardennes posted:

The Syrians were almost certainly warned by the Russians, and we warned the Russians because we are in reality scared of Russian nukes.

(I think the USAF is more likely to be grounded by a lack of spare parts for the F-35 though.)

oh sure, but its not like the US isn't capable of taking similar measures in a situation where a war with China/Russia is about to go hot and it doesn't really change anything about their ability to continue using the airfield within 24 hours of getting hit with a bunch of cruise missiles

I fully agree that the US military is by no means invincible or without major flaws (i.e. the F-35 is absolutely an unconscionable piece of poo poo), grossly misallocates resources, and would have some real issues tangling with China/Russia atm, I just think that the proposition "You can just throw up a bunch of missiles to destroy everything on the ground" as an ultimate solution to airpower isn't actually well supported by the historic track record

LGD has issued a correction as of 21:53 on Mar 11, 2019

Wheeee
Mar 11, 2001

When a tree grows, it is soft and pliable. But when it's dry and hard, it dies.

Hardness and strength are death's companions. Flexibility and softness are the embodiment of life.

That which has become hard shall not triumph.

the current rate of scientific advancement in most fields is accelerating, we are on the cusp of major revolutions in multiple fields. Yea rockets and airplanes are pretty well figured out now, but biotech is just ramping up and machine learning and general AI are advancing extremely quickly

Typo
Aug 19, 2009

Chernigov Military Aviation Lyceum
The Fighting Slowpokes

Cerebral Bore posted:

Making arguments presupposed on the idea that the west actually gives a poo poo about people starving somewhere very far away and furthermore would piss off the country making all their consumer goods because of that just smacks of desperation, fyi.

LOL even loving turkey sent a ship to try to break israeli blockade of palestine

but yes cerebral bore, every single person in "the west", including yourself presumably, are evil capitalist bourgeois who would never, ever do anything to piss off china!

Low Desert Punk
Jul 4, 2012

i have absolutely no fucking money
god i loving hope so

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Pener Kropoopkin
Jan 30, 2013

LGD posted:

oh sure, but its not like the US isn't capable of taking similar measures in a situation where a war with China/Russia is about to go hot and it doesn't really change anything about their ability to continue using the airfield within 24 hours of getting hit with a bunch of cruise missiles

I fully agree that the US military is by no means invincible or without major flaws (i.e. the F-35 is absolutely an unconscionable piece of poo poo), and would have some real issues tangling with China/Russia atm, I just think that the proposition "You can just throw up a bunch of missiles to destroy everything on the ground" as an ultimate solution to airpower isn't actually well supported by the historic track record

The "historic track record" you tried to claim was an extremely limited attack done purely for political theater.

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