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Toalpaz
Mar 20, 2012

Peace through overwhelming determination
I want to point out that if Bif is lying there is absolutely no town reason for it, and we should kill her first. And then me.

But she was willing to vote me so I'm probably going to get lunched by accident with IS putting me at -2

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Mr. Humalong
May 7, 2007

You are at -3 right now.

Toalpaz
Mar 20, 2012

Peace through overwhelming determination
Oh cool. I'm okay with this then, but don't forget sal is a double voter.

##vote sal

Toalpaz
Mar 20, 2012

Peace through overwhelming determination
##unvote

Actually I could buy an Bif and IS scum team.

If I as roleblocked and there was no night kill they could have been trying to frame me. So might as well see what Bif has to say regarding the 4 town who have a confirmed chain of actions, and bif and sal.

Referee
Aug 25, 2004

"Winning is great, sure, but if you are really going to do something in life, the secret is learning how to lose. Nobody goes undefeated all the time. If you can pick up after a crushing defeat, and go on to win again, you are going to be a champion someday."
(Wilma Rudolph)

Let’s start with the very basics:

I roleblocked Toal last night.
There was no kill last night.

In a game this small, I think we can rule out scum voluntarily withholding the kill.

Toalpaz posted:

Sal is literally the only person who could have attacked bif last night. Every single other person has night actions that are confirmed.

I was role blocked. Hum came forward saying I did nothing and IP was tracked to me. Nep is dead now. AA heard visiting me by two people.

Bif was attacked (or scum who withheld the kill).

Sal watched himself (or scum who did the kill)


We only have these possbilities.

No, these are not the only possibilities. The easiest possibility is this:

Toal attempted to do the kill and was blocked by me.

Bif, Toal’s teammate, had to claim to lose deathproof to get Toal off the hook for there being no kill.

Mr. Humalong posted:

Interested to read this.

Willing to believe it is Toal and Bif. They have played a good light bussing game. Onset was a new scum player so losing them and gaining town cred doing it would be a positive net play for Toal. I believe it was also Toal who floated the “if Bif isn’t NKed by day 3 then she’s scum” idea. Easy for Bif to lie about deathproof once they discovered Toal was blocked.

I don’t see scum Sal using a dayvig to kill a teammate.

Dark horse would be AA, I voted to see what Toal’s reaction would be.

Nah, that was actually me back here:

IllegallySober posted:

Also, because I’ll forget to mention this later, Bif for me falls into KB territory in that if she’s here past about Night 3 that probably means she’s 3P or scum. We’ll see how things play out, but CPig was a bit of a curious NK choice for scum in my book.

Nothing that’s happened has made me believe differently. Bif is a strong enough player normally that scum would have attempted to taker her out by now, were she not one of them.

Separately from that, Toal attempted to rush that Nep vote as quickly as they could today when it became apparent the kill was blocked. Then, as soon as Nep was dayvigged, jumped straight to trying to vote the doublevoter.

Toal also posted in masonry about ten minutes before Hum copped/shot Nep that the hammer was down. I’m not 100% sure what the endgame of that lie was about but they knew I didn’t want to rush a vote and was coming back here to post thoughts, and appear to have not wanted the narrative to swing off Nep.

I think Toal is the right dunk today and then we see where it goes.

Toalpaz
Mar 20, 2012

Peace through overwhelming determination
The easiest possibility is actually that there are less liars and Sal is the one who did the kill, rather than there being two liars and a conspiracy.

Anomalous Amalgam
Feb 13, 2015

by Nyc_Tattoo
Doctor Rope

Toalpaz posted:

The easiest possibility is actually that there are less liars and Sal is the one who did the kill, rather than there being two liars and a conspiracy.

But why would sal vig onset when onset didnt have any heat. That's crazy!

I mean kudos if that's the play, but I dont see it.

Anomalous Amalgam
Feb 13, 2015

by Nyc_Tattoo
Doctor Rope
Surely you have to agree it would make little sense. Even for cred.

Referee
Aug 25, 2004

"Winning is great, sure, but if you are really going to do something in life, the secret is learning how to lose. Nobody goes undefeated all the time. If you can pick up after a crushing defeat, and go on to win again, you are going to be a champion someday."
(Wilma Rudolph)

Toalpaz posted:

The easiest possibility is actually that there are less liars and Sal is the one who did the kill, rather than there being two liars and a conspiracy.

Yes, if there are two scum left why would there be two liars...

:thunk:

Toalpaz
Mar 20, 2012

Peace through overwhelming determination

SolusLunes posted:

You raise the gun and pull the trigger. Surprisingly, it fires correctly!

onsetOutsider, Scum Goon + Mystic + Vigoroso, has been vigged!

code:
Mystic: As a night action, gives a count of all actions taken that night
Vigoroso: Allows you to force three button presses

It was an unreliable vig, Sal used it to 'bus' his team mate hoping it would fail.

IS if you're going to say that Bif is lying about the kill being on her could you at least vote the liar first. I agree that today is between Bif and Sal.

Referee
Aug 25, 2004

"Winning is great, sure, but if you are really going to do something in life, the secret is learning how to lose. Nobody goes undefeated all the time. If you can pick up after a crushing defeat, and go on to win again, you are going to be a champion someday."
(Wilma Rudolph)

A scum Sal also could easily have used his doublevote at any point during the last however-many hours to dunk Nep and end the day (giving scum another nightkill opportunity).

Toalpaz
Mar 20, 2012

Peace through overwhelming determination

IllegallySober posted:

A scum Sal also could easily have used his doublevote at any point during the last however-many hours to dunk Nep and end the day (giving scum another nightkill opportunity).

so could scum bif you dolt

Toalpaz
Mar 20, 2012

Peace through overwhelming determination
Scum obviously withheld their vote not expecting hum to vig nep. They know how stubborn I am.

Referee
Aug 25, 2004

"Winning is great, sure, but if you are really going to do something in life, the secret is learning how to lose. Nobody goes undefeated all the time. If you can pick up after a crushing defeat, and go on to win again, you are going to be a champion someday."
(Wilma Rudolph)

Toalpaz posted:

[bIt was an unreliable vig, Sal used it to 'bus' his team mate hoping it would fail.[/b]

IS if you're going to say that Bif is lying about the kill being on her could you at least vote the liar first. I agree that today is between Bif and Sal.

We did discuss this possibility in masonry. Ultimately for better or worse, I don’t think that’s the way Sal would have played it. Unless he was heavily coached.

Referee
Aug 25, 2004

"Winning is great, sure, but if you are really going to do something in life, the secret is learning how to lose. Nobody goes undefeated all the time. If you can pick up after a crushing defeat, and go on to win again, you are going to be a champion someday."
(Wilma Rudolph)

Toalpaz posted:

so could scum bif you dolt

I suppose. So why should we dunk her first instead of you then?

Referee
Aug 25, 2004

"Winning is great, sure, but if you are really going to do something in life, the secret is learning how to lose. Nobody goes undefeated all the time. If you can pick up after a crushing defeat, and go on to win again, you are going to be a champion someday."
(Wilma Rudolph)

Toal, you’ve got so many fingers pointed in so many directions today. :)

Toalpaz
Mar 20, 2012

Peace through overwhelming determination

IllegallySober posted:

I suppose. So why should we dunk her first instead of you then?

Because you're imagining a connection between two players who's alignment you don't know.

If you kill Bif first and it turns out she wasn't lying then it literally clears me.

If you kill me (toal) then the question is still there about whether Bif was lying or if Sal really did try and kill her.

You're trying to solve the game in a way that kills more town.

Nep-Nep
May 15, 2004

Just one more thing!
:ghost::ghost:

Referee
Aug 25, 2004

"Winning is great, sure, but if you are really going to do something in life, the secret is learning how to lose. Nobody goes undefeated all the time. If you can pick up after a crushing defeat, and go on to win again, you are going to be a champion someday."
(Wilma Rudolph)


:911:

Toalpaz
Mar 20, 2012

Peace through overwhelming determination
What no comeback?

Your vote makes no sense from a town perspective. Killing Bif should prove the solve the question whether there's a connection, and kill the person you're accusing of lying.

Your vote makes no sense unless you're just trying to ride the negative sentiment you think exists because I was strongly behind the nep vote.

Referee
Aug 25, 2004

"Winning is great, sure, but if you are really going to do something in life, the secret is learning how to lose. Nobody goes undefeated all the time. If you can pick up after a crushing defeat, and go on to win again, you are going to be a champion someday."
(Wilma Rudolph)

Toalpaz posted:

What no comeback?

Your vote makes no sense from a town perspective. Killing Bif should prove the solve the question whether there's a connection, and kill the person you're accusing of lying.

Your vote makes no sense unless you're just trying to ride the negative sentiment you think exists because I was strongly behind the nep vote.

No, I’m going to make some coffee and then I’m going to math out the situation and see if there’s a functional difference between the two paths.

I’m not 100% opposed to dunking Bif today instead of you, but I think I’m right that you’re scum and I’m wondering if the reason you’re fighting so hard to not be the dunk today is because you’ve got an ability you need to use tonight for scum to win.

Bifauxnen
Aug 12, 2010

Curses! Foiled again!


Thinking Sal would hard bus that early is pretty out there. Even if the vig was unreliable, I don't think that's his style of play.

I think Toal's running out of good cases to make.

##vote Toal

btw one reason I hate relying too much on night action bingo is you can get led astray by wrong data from scum, but Toal's been playing real overconfidently about how to narrow it down to only a couple possibilities. Since scum were already trying to kill me, I expected someone to put up a fight saying my claim was just bogus. But Toal hardly considered that possibility at all even when people pointed it out, and thinks it just makes sense that I had a kill attempt on me last night. I figure Toal knows all too well that my claim is true, and didn't want to contradict it when there's a solid pair of people to point to as the "only possible" ones who could've done it.

Just like how DB and Yami got set right up and knocked down before.

Toalpaz
Mar 20, 2012

Peace through overwhelming determination
lol I don't know if your claim is true or not. For the reasons I've outlined you're a fine lunch. ##vote bif

Toalpaz
Mar 20, 2012

Peace through overwhelming determination

Toalpaz posted:

(sal has been in 2 and hasn't died after shooting scum) (bif has been waffling in Masonry and argues most of day 1 that I am scum for pushing Yami, once we kill Yami bif never comes back to that case which seems like it would be stronger after Yami flips town. Bif doesn't have a strong town read of me and doesn't defend me in Masonry, just drops that thread forever, and I imagine it's because she's viewing the game from a non-town perspective.)

Toalpaz posted:

Its a 1 shot cop, Dancer should definitely cop someone here. like Bif or Me or Nep imo.

Toalpaz posted:

Yeah I've thought about going crazy and accusing bif of nonsense for being around deadline but like I'm thinking the exact same thing about dancer. It would suck if there was some ability that forced people not to play but it's been like a day and a half of real time? I'm pretty sure we shouldnt leave it up to a unknown anti lurker challenge considering we're at myly probably, and someone who refuses to participate and use their cop might be scum ??? i guess???


Just lol if you think I'm on the same team as bif, especially asking for a cop on both of us.

Toalpaz
Mar 20, 2012

Peace through overwhelming determination
Killing Bif will literally hand us scum on a platter. Either Bif flips scum or Sal was confirmed killer last night. Through Math and Logic and stuff.

Toalpaz
Mar 20, 2012

Peace through overwhelming determination
I know you folks don't like the things I say or how sure I am but I literally could not have been the killer last night if I have half the chance of being the extra scum (if there is one) compared to everyone else here. I'm even telling you to lunch people who could be the killers instead of muddying the waters.

Scum are promoting a losing strategy of pretending they have more room to operate than they do. They probably cannot do an action and kill someone. Sal or Bif are lying and are scum.

SalTheBard
Jan 26, 2005

I forgot to post my food for USPOL Thanksgiving but that's okay too!

Fallen Rib
It's helpful for me sometimes to write things out, so I'm not really looking for feedback or w/e. A lot of this post might be "Well no poo poo Sherlock."

So we have it narrowed down to 2 possibilities:
Bif didn't really have a death proof and is lying to cover up a failed scum kill because Toal was blocked - I don't think this is the case because if Bif and Toal are the scum team they are bussing the gently caress out of each other

Bif did have death proof that popped, Toal was roleblocked, which means a 3rd party was the attempted killer which if this is the case doesn't give us any loving useful information at all.

All I know is that I am town, and at this point I'm borderline suspect on anyone pushing the "Sal used his random vig on Onset to earn town cred" because it's so ludicrous of an idea. I'm not saying it's not something that couldn't be done or wouldn't be done, but anyone that knows me knows I wouldn't be savvy enough to pull that move off. Also assuming the scum team was something like Bif, Onset and Me, I have a feeling Bif would veto that idea super hard. I suspect this because in another game I played scum I offered up to be day killed and was told to shut up because that was dumb idea. Scum don't kill scum period, especially since Onset wasn't even someone who was being talked about. The reason I shot Onset was because of their rude rear end post to AA, that's it period end of discussion.

In response to Toal pointing out I'm a double voter, I've just submitted my request to Solus in Discord to use my anon vote on myself. Therefore I just have my regular rear end one vote.

One other thing that has been weighing on me is Toalpaz giving me a vig on Night 1 and then being like "use it on Yami." I was already suss on Yami so if Toal was scum they would have to realize that it would take very little prodding for me to use it. Again since I pretty much feel like I'm confirmed town, the play would have to be "Well that sucks, Yami was town, awww shucks." For me it really is narrowed down to Bif and Toal and I'm not sure how I feel about this. Toal also posted something to the effect of "Vote out Nep, because night actions point at Nep and Bif so it makes sense." (I'm paraphrasing). This interaction REALLY did not sit well with me at all because I do not like to turbo people at all, when I gave pushback on this (basically saying "Lets slow poo poo down a tad because we have plenty of time to think." is when Toal started doing the "Sal is secret scum". I usually don't like to vote based on gut but I'm really starting to feel sour towards Toalpaz, but I just can't get their d1 interaction with Onset and Yami (re: pronouns) out of my head. Toal literally posted "Vig Yami or Onset." I can't see scum saying "Hey vig either town or my scumbro!" Even if they didn't think I would vig Onset the fact that they still put Onsets name out doesn't make any sense to me.

So this is kind of where I'm at, I'm leaning towards Toalpaz but there are still some things that don't make 100% sense to me.

Anomalous Amalgam
Feb 13, 2015

by Nyc_Tattoo
Doctor Rope

SalTheBard posted:

It's helpful for me sometimes to write things out, so I'm not really looking for feedback or w/e. A lot of this post might be "Well no poo poo Sherlock."

So we have it narrowed down to 2 possibilities:
Bif didn't really have a death proof and is lying to cover up a failed scum kill because Toal was blocked - I don't think this is the case because if Bif and Toal are the scum team they are bussing the gently caress out of each other

Bif did have death proof that popped, Toal was roleblocked, which means a 3rd party was the attempted killer which if this is the case doesn't give us any loving useful information at all.

All I know is that I am town, and at this point I'm borderline suspect on anyone pushing the "Sal used his random vig on Onset to earn town cred" because it's so ludicrous of an idea. I'm not saying it's not something that couldn't be done or wouldn't be done, but anyone that knows me knows I wouldn't be savvy enough to pull that move off. Also assuming the scum team was something like Bif, Onset and Me, I have a feeling Bif would veto that idea super hard. I suspect this because in another game I played scum I offered up to be day killed and was told to shut up because that was dumb idea. Scum don't kill scum period, especially since Onset wasn't even someone who was being talked about. The reason I shot Onset was because of their rude rear end post to AA, that's it period end of discussion.

In response to Toal pointing out I'm a double voter, I've just submitted my request to Solus in Discord to use my anon vote on myself. Therefore I just have my regular rear end one vote.

One other thing that has been weighing on me is Toalpaz giving me a vig on Night 1 and then being like "use it on Yami." I was already suss on Yami so if Toal was scum they would have to realize that it would take very little prodding for me to use it. Again since I pretty much feel like I'm confirmed town, the play would have to be "Well that sucks, Yami was town, awww shucks." For me it really is narrowed down to Bif and Toal and I'm not sure how I feel about this. Toal also posted something to the effect of "Vote out Nep, because night actions point at Nep and Bif so it makes sense." (I'm paraphrasing). This interaction REALLY did not sit well with me at all because I do not like to turbo people at all, when I gave pushback on this (basically saying "Lets slow poo poo down a tad because we have plenty of time to think." is when Toal started doing the "Sal is secret scum". I usually don't like to vote based on gut but I'm really starting to feel sour towards Toalpaz, but I just can't get their d1 interaction with Onset and Yami (re: pronouns) out of my head. Toal literally posted "Vig Yami or Onset." I can't see scum saying "Hey vig either town or my scumbro!" Even if they didn't think I would vig Onset the fact that they still put Onsets name out doesn't make any sense to me.

So this is kind of where I'm at, I'm leaning towards Toalpaz but there are still some things that don't make 100% sense to me.

That early in the game I can reconcile toal falsely advocating for a vig on scumpal and not thinking it would actually result in that. I can't see a scum Bif, not hammering Nep for the entire time they were at -1 or close to it.

Referee
Aug 25, 2004

"Winning is great, sure, but if you are really going to do something in life, the secret is learning how to lose. Nobody goes undefeated all the time. If you can pick up after a crushing defeat, and go on to win again, you are going to be a champion someday."
(Wilma Rudolph)

SalTheBard posted:

In response to Toal pointing out I'm a double voter, I've just submitted my request to Solus in Discord to use my anon vote on myself. Therefore I just have my regular rear end one vote.

Sal :psyduck:

SalTheBard
Jan 26, 2005

I forgot to post my food for USPOL Thanksgiving but that's okay too!

Fallen Rib

Anomalous Amalgam posted:

That early in the game I can reconcile toal falsely advocating for a vig on scumpal and not thinking it would actually result in that. I can't see a scum Bif, not hammering Nep for the entire time they were at -1 or close to it.

Oh gently caress I didn't even think about that (even though it was brought up a few times.)

SalTheBard
Jan 26, 2005

I forgot to post my food for USPOL Thanksgiving but that's okay too!

Fallen Rib

It's ok. I don't want it to be used as a weapon against me. I'm not even sure if it will go through or not.

Referee
Aug 25, 2004

"Winning is great, sure, but if you are really going to do something in life, the secret is learning how to lose. Nobody goes undefeated all the time. If you can pick up after a crushing defeat, and go on to win again, you are going to be a champion someday."
(Wilma Rudolph)

SalTheBard posted:

It's ok. I don't want it to be used as a weapon against me. I'm not even sure if it will go through or not.

Sal: “I don’t want my second vote to be used as a weapon against me.”

Also Sal: Literally uses his second vote as a weapon against himself

Toalpaz
Mar 20, 2012

Peace through overwhelming determination

Toalpaz posted:

Because you're imagining a connection between two players who's alignment you don't know.

If you kill Bif first and it turns out she wasn't lying then it literally clears me.

If you kill me (toal) then the question is still there about whether Bif was lying or if Sal really did try and kill her.

You're trying to solve the game in a way that kills more town.

Again going to point this out, that killing bif solves this puzzle better and faster of whether bif is my accomplice and lying for me, considering she could also be scum for other reasons.

Referee
Aug 25, 2004

"Winning is great, sure, but if you are really going to do something in life, the secret is learning how to lose. Nobody goes undefeated all the time. If you can pick up after a crushing defeat, and go on to win again, you are going to be a champion someday."
(Wilma Rudolph)

Toalpaz posted:

Again going to point this out, that killing bif solves this puzzle better and faster of whether bif is my accomplice and lying for me, considering she could also be scum for other reasons.

Let's take this in a different direction for a second.

If there are two scum remaining, Toal is scum, and Bif is NOT their scumbuddy- who else can logistically be their scumbuddy?

Then, the reverse of the above question: If there are two scum remaining, Bif is scum, and Toal is NOT their scumbuddy- who else can logistically be their scumbuddy?

Anomalous Amalgam
Feb 13, 2015

by Nyc_Tattoo
Doctor Rope
I'm thinking Toal is likely to be scum. That scum failed their kill last night on Bif, because why would they buss each other like this, and why would Bif bring that up if it was a lie.

Situation A: Toal attempts something is jailed by IS, someone attempts to kill Bif.
Situation B: Toal attempts something is jailed by IS, Bif is lying about the BP popping, but then what was the boon Bif did get from that push? Who attempted and failed a kill?
Situation C: IS/Hum are scum.

IS allegedly jailed toal, and Hum allegedly track. HOWEVER, I've had 2 unconventional X-Shots, including a forced redirection to protect myself.

Either Toal is scum, the less complicated and straightforward answer, or there's a good probability IS/Hum could be scum.

Toalpaz
Mar 20, 2012

Peace through overwhelming determination
Logistically IS, one or more Bif or Sal are ACTUALLY scum because 4 players have confirmed night interactions and Bif has claimed to be the nk.

Toalpaz
Mar 20, 2012

Peace through overwhelming determination

Anomalous Amalgam posted:

I'm thinking Toal is likely to be scum. That scum failed their kill last night on Bif, because why would they buss each other like this, and why would Bif bring that up if it was a lie.

Situation A: Toal attempts something is jailed by IS, someone attempts to kill Bif.
Situation B: Toal attempts something is jailed by IS, Bif is lying about the BP popping, but then what was the boon Bif did get from that push? Who attempted and failed a kill?
Situation C: IS/Hum are scum.

IS allegedly jailed toal, and Hum allegedly track. HOWEVER, I've had 2 unconventional X-Shots, including a forced redirection to protect myself.

Either Toal is scum, the less complicated and straightforward answer, or there's a good probability IS/Hum could be scum.

I wasn't jailed I was roleblocked by IS.

Toalpaz
Mar 20, 2012

Peace through overwhelming determination
IF Bif isn't lying, it HAS to be Sal despite how much credit he's bought with that vig.

Anomalous Amalgam
Feb 13, 2015

by Nyc_Tattoo
Doctor Rope

Toalpaz posted:

I wasn't jailed I was roleblocked by IS.

sorry, I've mixed up the two in my mind. Logical slip.

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Referee
Aug 25, 2004

"Winning is great, sure, but if you are really going to do something in life, the secret is learning how to lose. Nobody goes undefeated all the time. If you can pick up after a crushing defeat, and go on to win again, you are going to be a champion someday."
(Wilma Rudolph)

Toalpaz posted:

Logistically IS, one or more Bif or Sal are ACTUALLY scum because 4 players have confirmed night interactions and Bif has claimed to be the nk.

That doesn't answer the question I asked.

Toalpaz posted:

I wasn't jailed I was roleblocked by IS.

This is correct.

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